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Stat 130


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6 ..................... ................................ ................................ ................................
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.2.1 17 ............................... ................................ ................................
.2.1.1 () 17 ...................... ................................ ................................
.2.1.2 19 ........................................ ................................ ................................
.2.1.3 22 .......................................... ................................ ................................
.2.1.4 24 ................ ................................ ................................
.2.2 24 ...................................... ................................ ................................
.2.2.1 25 ............................. ................................ ................................
.2.2.2 27 ............................... ................................ ................................
.2.3 27 ............... ................................ ................................ ................................
.2.4 29 ......................................... ................................ ................................
.2.5 32 ................ ................................ ................................ ................................
: 35 .......................................... ................................
.3.1 35 .............. ................................ ................................ ................................
.3.1.1 36 ......................... ................................ ................................
.3.1.2 39 ........................... ................................ ................................
.3.2 41 ........................ ................................ ................................

.3.3 43 ......................................... ................................ ................................


.3.4 46 ................ ................................ ................................ ................................
: 47 ..................... ................................ ................................
.4.1 47 ....................................... ................................ ................................
.4.2 49 .................................... ................................ ................................
.4.3 52 ................ ................................ ................................ ................................
: 53 ....................... ................................ ................................
.5.1 53 ....................................... ................................ ................................
.5.2 53 ............................. ................................ ................................
.5.3 57 ................ ................................ ................................ ................................
: 58 ....................... ................................ ................................
.6.1.1 58 ................................. ................................ ................................
.6.1.2 58 .................................... ................................ ................................
.6.3.1 62 ........................ ................................ ................................
.6.3.2 62 .................... ................................ ................................
.6.3.3 63 ....................................... ................................ ................................
: 68 ........................................ ................................
.7.1 68 ...................................... ................................ ................................
.7.1.1 68 .......................................... ................................ ................................
.7.1.2 68 ....................... ................................ ................................
.7.2 69 ................................. ................................ ................................
.7.2.1 69 .......................................... ................................ ................................
.7.2.2 69 .................. ................................ ................................
.7.2.3 ( ) 71 .................. ................................

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.7.2.3 ( ) 74 ...................................... ................................


.7.3 75 ...................................... ................................ ................................
.7.3.1 75 .......................................... ................................ ................................
.7.3.2 76 ........................ ................................ ................................
.7.4 82 ................ ................................ ................................ ................................
: 84 ........................... ................................ ................................
.8.1 84 ................ ................................ ................................ ................................
.8.2 84 ...................................... ................................ ................................
.8.2.1 85 ............. ................................ ................................
.8.2.2 87 .................. ................................ ................................
.8.3 89 ......................................... ................................ ................................
.8.4 91 ................ ................................ ................................ ................................
: 93 ..................... ................................ ................................
.9.1 93 ................ ................................ ................................ ................................
.9.1.1 ( ) 93 .................................. ................................
.9.1.2 95 ..................... ................................ ................................
.9.2 97 ........................... ................................ ................................
.9.2.1 ( ) 98 ............ ................................
.9.2.2 100 .......................... ................................
.9.3 101 .............. ................................ ................................ ................................

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500000
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2,150,000
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50

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1992
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1996
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73.7
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:
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51

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1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
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2004

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P 1151 1249 0.95

1151 1249 .95%


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70 -

60 -

50 -

40 -

30 -

20 -

14

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f x
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203040506070

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P 46.46 51.94 0.95

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100

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20-

15

30-

30

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40 17% %33 .95%


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r 0.45

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r (1 r )
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1
n
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100
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:
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1
Z 2

Z 2

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98

( :)9.5 1998 )(36


2001 ) (64
) (40 ) (8
. 2001
1998 . = 0.05
:
:

H 0 : 36 (vs) H 1 : 36
:

sx 8

x 40

n 64

(:(Z

x 0 40 36

4
s x n 8 64

Z=4

H 0 H 1 2001
1998 . . = 0.05

99

.9.2.2
:

H 0 : P P0 (vs) H 1 : P P0
(:(Z

r P0

P0 1 P0
n

( (Z . ( (Z

. H 0 ( (Z H 0
. H 1
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:
:

H 0 : P 0.8 (vs) H 1 : P 0.8


:

738
0.82
900

n 900

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r P0
0.82 0.8 0.02

2
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0.8 0.2 0.01
900
n

100

Z=2

H 0 ) (0.8
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.9.3
.9.3.1 ( )100 :
50- 60- 70- 80- 90 10

40

30

12

.1 .99%
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. = 0.01
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55% . = 0.05

101

.9.3.2 ( )100
:
10- 14- 18- 22- 26- 30 12

25

30

16

12

.1 ( )22000 .99%
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( )18000

25% . = 0.05
( )60
.9.3.3

20- 24- 28- 32- 36- 4010

18

15

.1 ( )30
. = 0.05
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.9.3.4

:
15- 19- 23- 27- 31 8

10

42

14

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17% . = 0.05
.9.3.5 ( )100 :
x 2 11120

x 1028 ,

( )13 ( )15.
102

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. = 0.01
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( )120 .
.

( )81

( )1100 .
. = 0.05

103

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