Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Dr. J. Endrenyi
Ontario Power Technologies
Toronto,
Ontario 2000
INTRODUCTION
The history of formal reliability studies goes back to the days of the Second World
War when it was felt necessary to develop methods for estimating the success rate of
complex weapons. After the war, these methods were applied to electronic devices and
in space technology. Most of the applications concerned non-repaired devices and
systems where the first failure would terminate the useful life of the device or system.
Reliability analysis of repairable systems (where useful life continues after a failure
is repaired) usually requires more complex mathematical models and the first methods
based on such models were developed only in the 1960's. Power systems and their
components are in this class, and while simple approaches to generation reserve
evaluation were proposed as early as 1947, a full-scale effort to model the failurerepair processes involved was begun only in the late 1960's.
A. General
A1. Pieruschka, E., Principles of Reliability. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1963.
A2. Shooman, M.L., Probabilistic Reliability: An EngineeringApproach. McGraw-Hill, New York, NY, 1968.
A3. Henley, E.J. and Kumamoto, H., Reliability Engineering and Risk Assessment. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1981.
Reprinted with the title Probabilistic Risk Assessment, IEEE Press, New York, NY, 1992.
A4. Pages A. and Gondran, M., System Reliability - Evaluation and Prediction in Engineering. Springer, New York, NY,
1986.
A5. Anders, G.J., Probability Concepts in Electric Power Systems. J. Wiley & Sons, New York, NY, 1990.
A6. Birolini, A., Quality and Reliability of Technical Systems. Springer, Berlin/New York, 1994.
A7. Kumamoto, H. and Henley, E.J., Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Management for Engineers and Scientists. Second
edition, IEEE Press, New York, NY, 1996.
B. Theoretical
B1. Barlow, R.E., and Proschan, F., Mathematical Theory of Reliability. J. Wiley & Sons, New York, N.Y., 1965. B2. Barlow,
B3. Singh, C., and Billinton, R., System Reliability Modelling and Evaluation. Hutchinson, London, 1977.
C7. Billinton, R. and Li, W., Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Sysvtems Csing Nlonte Carlo olethods.
Plenum Press, New York, N.Y., 1994.
BIBLIOGRAPHIES
Dl. Billinton, R., "Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in Power System Reliability Evaluation",
IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. 91, 649-660, March/April 1972.
D2. IEEE Committee Report, "Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in Power System Reliability
Evaluation, 1971-1977", IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. 97, 22352242,
November/December 1978.
D3. Allan, R.N., Billinton, R. and Lee, S.H., "Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in Power System
Reliability Evaluation, 1977-1982", IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. 103, 275-282,
February 1984.
D4. Allan, R.N., Billinton, R., Shahidehpour, S.M. and Singh, C., "Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in
Power System Reliability Evaluation, 1982-1987", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 3, 1555-1564,
November 1988.
D5. Allan, R.N., Billinton, R., Breipohl, A.M. and Grigg, C.H., "Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in
Power System Reliability Evaluation, 1987-1991", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 9, 41-49, February
1994.
D6. Schilling, M.Th., Billinton, R., Leite da Silva, A.M. and El-Kady, M.A., "Bibliography on Composite System Reliability
(1964-1988)", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 4, I 122-1132, August 1989.
D7. Schilling, M.Th., Leite da Silva, A.M., Billinton, R. and El-Kady, M.A., "Bibliography on Power System Probabilistic
Analysis (1962-1988)", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 5, 1-I l, February 1990.
D8. Billinton, R., Wacker, G. and Wojczynski, E., "Comprehensive Bibliography of Electric Service Interruption
IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. 102, 1831-1837, June 1983.
Costs",
D9. Tollefson, G., Billinton, R. and Wacker, G., "Comprehensive Biblio5raphy on Reliability Worth and Electrical Service
Customer Interruption Costs, 1980-1990", IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 6, 1508-1514, November
1991.
In this approach system design and operating policies are based on preselected tests: failure criteria are defined so that certain combinations of system and
load conditions must not represent immediate system breakdown or even
excessive component stress.
To make sure that these criteria are met, "worst-case conditions" are analyzed
and the calculated stresses and strengths for the case are set apart by a "safety
factor".
Probabilistic approach
Indices
* probabilities of failures
* frequencies of failures
Reliability criteria
Deterministic Approach
No measures of reliability exist
Criteria are set in terms of pre-determined tests.
E.g., the system must retain its ability to supply all Ioads during:
* the loss of the largest generating unit
* the loss of selected circuits (n-1 rule)
Probabilistic approach
Reliability is measured with the help of probabilistic indices. For example, the
probability or the frequency of failures, or the expected number of days per year when
the peak load is not met may be required in a typical assessment of power system
reliability.
ADEQUACY INDICES
Notation:
CLASSIFICATION OF SYSTEM
OPERATING STATES
References: Reliability Indices for Power Systems. EPRI Report EL 1773, March 1981
Composite System Reliability Evaluation: Phase 1 - Scoping Study. EPRI Report EL 5290, December 1987.
SECURITY CRITERIA
Deterministic approach
This approach is implemented by designating operating for security limits for the line
loadings, which are lower than the thermal limits generally used in adequacy studies.
The operating limits are determined by stability tests for the above set of contingencies.
Probabilistic approach
SECURITY INDICES
(Proposed)
Time Frame C (up to the end of the operating time horizon - 2 to 4 years)
* Mothballing and restoring units *
Fuel contracts
* Long-term sales and
If all relevant factors were known, this method could be used to determine
reliability standards.
The public may want to have a better design/service than the most
economical. They may be willing to pay for it. This is equivalent to putting
extra penalty on the costs of low reliability for the associated annoyance.
The new "optimal" level of reliability would be higher (A).
if rates are considered too high, the penalty would be applied to the highreliability end of the damage curve. If political, ecological or environmental
constraints do not allow for the system extension needed to maintain a
given level of reliability, this can be represented by raising the investment
costs in the high-reliability domain. Both effects reduce the level of
reliability that is "optimal" under the
circumstances (B).
Optimal reliability depends on what the customers, or the society as a
whole, can afford.