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SLOBODAN DJAJIC
1. ILLEGALIMMIGRATION
AND THE UNDERGROUNDECONOMY:
AN OVERVIEW
Pressures underlying migratory movements have been rising over the last two
decades and are likely to expand further in the years to come. In many developing
countries, population growth is running far ahead of the pace of jobs creation.
Political, ethnic and religious conflicts are pushing an ever larger number of
refugees in the direction of the more stable and prosperous countries. Above all,
migration is encouraged by the expanding per-capita income differentials between
rich and poor nations, while technical advances in transportationand communications are reducing the cost of international migration.
A combination of all these factors has created an environment in which current
and potential future migration flows are becoming increasingly more volatile and
unpredictable with respect to both origin and magnitude. The receiving countries
have responded by trying to restrain immigration.Rules for granting refugee status
or for issuing residence and work permits, as well as tourist visas, are becoming
increasinglyrestrictive, targeting in particularthe nationals of developing countries
and potential asylum seekers (see OECD 1992).
A combination of restrictive immigrationpolicies and expanding migratorypressures has produced rapid growth in the stock of undocumented aliens in industrial
countries. In the U.S.A. the number of illegal migrantshas grown quicklysince the
late 1960s, reaching a figure of between three and six million by 1980, and has
continuously increased since then, except in the late 1980s when a one-time drop
was due to legalization (Chiswick 1988a). According to a report issued by the
Commissionof the European Communities(1991, p. 38), of the approximatelythree
million foreigners living in Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal in 1987, only about
* ManuscriptreceivedMay 1994;revisedMay and November1995.
For their helpful comments,I thank two anonymousreferees and the participantsin various
seminarsand meetings,includingthe December1992conferenceon Migrationand Developmentin
Davos, Switzerland,where the first draftof this paperwas presented.
97
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DJAJIC
one half were legal residents. The remaining 1.5 million were irregular migrants,
mainly from non-European countries. More recent estimates place the number of
illegals at 1.2 million in Italy alone (Russell and Teitelbaum 1992, p. 12).
While meaningful estimates of the number of clandestine foreign workers in
Western Europe are hard to come by, there are reasons to believe that the figures
are rather significant. Large stocks of legal foreign residents living in the European
Union serve not only to facilitate entry, job acquisition and sheltering of illegal
immigrants,but also to reduce the probabilityof detection by the authorities.
Foreign workers lacking legal status normallytake jobs which are at the bottom of
the social ladder. Reflecting the supply and demand conditions and various constraints influencing the markets for illegal foreign labor, these are jobs which
typically involve low wages, which tend to- be temporary, and where working
conditions are harsh, unpleasant, often unsafe, and lack compliance with labor
legislation. There are no unions, no social security and very little legal protection.
These jobs involve seasonal help in agriculture(such as in the U.S.A., Italy, Greece,
Spain and Germany) work in hotel and restaurant trades (as in Italy, Greece,
Switzerlandand France) and garment making(as in the U.S.A., France, and Spain).
Illegal foreign workers are also employed in the construction industry, in the
personal services sector, as street vendors, and throughout the expanding underground economy.2
For its part, the underground economy has flourished in industrializedcountries
for a number of reasons. A major one is that, by hiring irregular workers, an
employer can avoid paying payroll taxes. In a country like Italy, where payroll taxes
add 50 to 60% to basic pay, the incentives for hiring irregular workers are
significant. Other advantages for employers include the possibility of paying by
piece-rate, avoiding the constraints imposed by trade unions and labor legislation,
and flexible labor utilization in terms of working hours and layoffs. Underground
activities are particularlyconcentrated in industrieswhich are labor-intensive,where
economies of scale do not play a major role, and where demand conditions are
volatile. In such an environmentthe use of irregularworkersoffers employersmajor
possibilities for cutting labor costs while at the same time providing irregular
workerswith advantagesthat are not availablein the official labor market(Del Boca
and Forte 1982). These include income-tax evasion and the possibility of attaining
greater flexibility of working time (Contini 1982, p. 201 and 1989, p. 239). And while
legal residents normally participate in the underground economy as a matter of
choice, illegal aliens, because of their very status, are compelled to do so.
2.
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ILLEGALIMMIGRATION
99
surveyby Greenwood and McDowell 1986). In addition, it is said that the availability
of unskilled legal and illegal migrants lowers the pace of structuraladjustmentand
technological progress, reducing the economy'scompetitiveness in the international
market (Harrison 1992). If capital is mobile across sectors, illegal immigrationmay
draw capital to the underground economy, depriving the rest of the economy of
capital and causing it to stagnate (Ichino 1992). Illegal aliens are also said to draw
benefits from the host country'ssocial programswithout always making the corresponding contribution to the programs'budgets.
On the other hand, those who advocate legalization of the status of illegal
immigrants argue that low-skilled foreign workers are needed and that their presence benefits the economy. In the U.S.A., inflows of illegal foreign workers often
meet labor market shortages that even the Labor Department considers genuine
(Abrams and Abrams 1975). If the domestic labor market is sufficiently segmented,
native workers are largely insulated from the direct employment effects of illegal
immigration(Piore 1979, Greenwood and McDowell 1986, and Ichino 1992). Moreover, foreign workers, in the role of consumers, contribute to an expansion of the
market, stimulate investment spending, and further the process of employment
creation (Bernard 1953). For some sectors of the economy-agriculture in the south
of California and of Texas or the garment industryin large cities such as New York
and Los Angeles-the availabilityof cheap, clandestine foreign labor is essential to
the survivalof a large number of enterprises. Finally, goods and services produced
by the migrants are likely to cost less, benefiting the nation's consumers.
Formal theoretical analysis of the economic consequences of illegal immigration
began with the pioneering work of Ethier (1986), which considers the implicationsof
alternative immigrationpolicies and enforcement measures for the level of welfare
and the distribution of income in a host country. Subsequent studies, including the
works of Bond and Chen (1987) and Djajic (1987), examine the implications of
international interdependence in the context of two-countrymodels. In general, it is
found that efforts to stem illegal immigrationare likely to benefit native unskilled
workers at the expense of other productivefactors such as capital and skilled labor.3
The present paper studies the effects of illegal immigrationon the allocation of
resources, commodity prices and wages of various classes of workers, both in the
short run (when occupational mobility is restricted) and in the long run (when the
skill-composition of the labor force is endogenously determined). Thus, Section 3
develops a simple analytic framework suitable for the analysis of the resourceallocation effects of illegal immigration.The economy is assumed to produce three
3A numberof empiricalstudies have attemptedto quantifythe effects of immigrationon wages
of nativeworkers.As reportedin surveysby Greenwoodand McDowell(1986) and Borjas(1994),
evidenceseems to indicatethat immigrationmaycause a slightdecreasein wages and employment
of domesticlow-skilledworkers.A studyby Bean, Lowelland Taylor(1988)deals explicitlywith the
effects of illegalimmigration.Theirmainfindingsmaybe summarizedas follows:"Theconcernthat
undocumentedimmigrationfrom Mexicomaybe depressingthe earningsof native-bornworkersis
not borne out by these results.... It is also noteworthythat the effects of increasesin the supplyof
this group are negligible on native-bornMexican Americans,the group that a priori may be
expectedto be most affected...."(p. 46).
See also Grossman(1984) for an attemptto measurethe impactof illegal immigrationon the
wagesof nativeworkersby meansof a simulation.Resultsof an employee-employer
surveyfocusing
on issues relatedto employmentof illegal immigrantsare presentedin Chiswick(1986, 1988b).
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ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION
101
the intermediate input Z per unit of output, while good Y requiresjust capital and
unskilled labor. For simplicity, let us assume that a is constant. The production
functions for the three sectors are given by
(1)
X =mintf(Sx,
(2)
Y=g(LyKy)
(3)
Z = h(Lz Kz)
Kx), Z/ca,
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DJAJIC
having a job in sector Z consists of not having to pay income and social security
taxes. The disadvantageis that one is not eligible for certain social benefits or legal
protection and working conditions are more "harsh"than in the formal sector Y.
Let us assume that native unskilled workers are indifferent between the two
sectors only if the official (gross) unskilledwage V in sector Y is related to the wage
U paid in the underground economy as follows:
(5)
V(1-t)=U/(1+
where t is the sum of income and social security tax rates (assuming they fall
entirely on the employees) and S reflects the premium that native workers require
as compensation for the net disadvantagesof being employed in the underground
economy.
Firms operating in the undergroundeconomy are subject to penalties for hiring
labor in a clandestine manner. The expected penalty per worker,whether domestic
or foreign, is assumed equal to a constant proportion o of the wage U. Accordingly,
the cost of unskilled labor to a firm operating in the undergroundeconomy is given
by U(1 + ar). This amount is taken to be smaller than the unskilled wage V in the
formal economy. Otherwise, in the context of the present model, it would not be in
the interest of entrepreneursin sector Z-the only sector in which there is scope for
underground activity-to hire workers in a clandestine manner.
As is spelled out in the Appendix, we assume that employer penalties consist of
fines which do not constitute a real social cost and that the total revenues from fines
are equal to enforcement expenditures, thus preservinga balanced budget.
While native unskilled workers are perfectly mobile between sectors Y and Z,
provided (5) is satisfied, they cannot become eligible for skilled employment in
sector X without having participatedin a costly trainingprogram.7For the required
investment in human capital to pay off for an individual at the beginning of his
working life, we assume it is necessary that the skilled wage W in sector X exceeds
the unskilled wage V of sector Y by tk percent. Accordingly,native entrants into the
labor force are willing to work as unskilled laborersonly if V ? W/(1 + g), and seek
to become skilled workers if Ve< W/(1 + tk).In a long-runequilibrium,defined as a
state of the economy in which the skill composition of the labor force is stationary,
(6)
V=W/(1+
while in the short run the number of skilled workers is fixed and V may be either
greater or smaller than W/(1 + tk).
Assuming that firms behave competitively, profits are driven to zero in equilibrium. Prices of the three goods produced by the economy must then be equal to unit
7 Trainingis assumedto take place before a workerreachesthe age of entryinto the laborforce.
Accordingly,the processof skill formationdoes not absorbmanpowerfromthe labormarket.
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ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION
(7)
(8)
(9)
aLZU(1
U=W(1-t)(1+
)/(l+
zZ
FIGURE 1
FIGURE 1
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104
X=L/[asx+aLY(.)
+aLza],
where L Sx + Ly + N + M is the total number of workers available in the economy. The equilibrium values of Y and Z are then obtained by noting that
Y=
r( )X and Z = aX.
4.
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105
TABLE 1
EFFECTS OF AN INCREASE IN THE STOCK OF ILLEGAL FOREIGN LABOR
On Variables:
Row 1
S-R
L -R (CaseA)
Row 3
S -R (Case B)
Row4
L -R (CaseB)
(Case A)
Py
Pz
Py/Pz
Y/X
Sx
Ly
Row 2
0
T T
T
T
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It should be noted, however, that the empirical evidence available for the U.S.
economy seems to indicate that a very small percentage of illegal aliens do in fact
receive free public services. Illegals are typically young males who are afraid of
being apprehended if they request government assistance. Moreover, they are
normally unaccompanied by a wife or children, who may be heavier users of public
services. At the same time a large majoritydo pay Social Security and income taxes
through the automatic withholding system. In a sample of illegal immigrantsstudied
by North and Houstoun (1976), 77% paid Social Security taxes and 73% paid
income taxes. There is overwhelmingevidence pointing to the conclusion that illegal
immigrantsare in fact making a positivenet contributionto the public coffers.9
Throughout the analysiswe have assumed that both migrantsand native unskilled
workers are employed side by side in the undergroundeconomy. That situation may
be called "case A." When a sufficiently large stock of illegal immigrants exists in
relation to the size of the undergroundeconomy, a point is reached where all native
workers are employed in the official economy as skilled or unskilled workers and
only migrants can be found in sector Z. At that stage we switch from "case A" to
"case B."'0 In "case B," U is no longer tied to V by means of (5) as there is no more
native labor in the undergroundeconomy that can support the value of U in relation
to V by leaving sector Z and joining sector Y. In this new setting, the effects of
illegal immigrationon factor rewards and the allocation of resources are somewhat
different.
In the short run, an increase in the stock of illegal foreign labor lowers U,
increases output of Z and lowers Pz. A lower Pz stimulates expansion of sector X,
generating an increase in W as well as in the capital intensity of production. The
increase in output of X relative to Y causes Py to rise on the market, supportingan
increase in the official unskilled wage V, as well as in the capital-labor ratio of
sector Y. Accordingly,output of Y expands even though Ly is fixed. These findings
are summarized in Row 3 of Table 1, with algebraic derivations presented in the
Appendix.
In contrast with case A, we observe that in the short run an increase in the stock
of migrants raises the wage of all native workers and not only those who are skilled.
Whether V does or does not increase relative to W depends on the parameters of
the model. As shown in the Appendix, inelastic demand with respect to Py in the
9As reportedby Simon(1989,pp. 295-296), ". . . everystudythat providesdollarestimatesshows
that when the sum of the tax contributionsto city, state and federalgovernmentare allowedfor,
these tax paymentsvastly exceed the cost of the servicesused by a factor of perhapsfive, ten or
more.... On balance, then, the conclusionis quite the opposite of what is commonlysupposed:
nativesexploitillegalimmigrantsthroughthe publiccoffersby takingmuchmorefromthe illegalsin
taxes than is spent on them in publicexpenditures."
10Atfirst glance, "case B" may appearto representa ratherunrealisticsituation.However,in
some countries,it seems that in a numberof underground-economy
occupations,jobs are filled
almostexclusivelyby migrants.Accordingto the Commissionof the EuropeanCommunities(1991,
p. 99), in Italy ". . . a numberof activitiesare not acceptedby the native workersunder existing
conditions(e.g., workas a domesticservant)."Similarly,in Spain,in the case of domesticserviceand
mining,Spanishworkersare hardto find.
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ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION
107
goods market, a small distributiveshare of skilled labor in sector X, and a low (high)
elasticity of substitution between capital and labor in sector Y (sector X) all
increase the likelihood that the value of V/W rises in the short run.
The nature of the transition to the steady state depends on whether V/W
increases or declines on impact. A rise in V/W leads to an increase in the number
of unskilled native workers and a decline in the number of those who are skilled.
This results in a tendency for V to fall and W to rise, output of Y to expand and
that of X to contract, and for both Py and Pz to fall in relation to their short run
values. Alternatively, if V/W initially declines, all these variables move in the
opposite direction in the transition to the steady state.
The long-run effects of an increase in the stock of illegal migrantsin case B are
summarizedin Row 4 of Table 1: Both W and V rise in the same proportion, U and
Pz fall, Py increases (although less than in proportionto the increase in V), output
of both X and Y expands, Y/X diminishes, and the skill composition of the native
labor force can change either way, depending on the values of the model's parameters.
Real income of native workers, skilled and unskilled, clearly improves as their
productivityand wages rise in terms of both final goods. Skilled natives benefit from
the inflow of illegal aliens because it reduces the cost of the intermediate good used
in sector X, the sector employing skilled labor. Unskilled natives benefit as the
economy expands, increasing the demand for good Y, the good produced by
unskilled labor. By contrast, clandestine foreign workers bear the adverse consequences of illegal immigration as the real wage paid in the undergroundeconomy
falls in terms of both X and Y."
5.
EMPLOYERSANCTIONSAND LEGALIZATION
MEASURES
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DJAJIC
last few years additional, stronger measures of the same type have been passed into
law in a number of industrial countries.12
The next two sections examine the implications of such measures on factor
rewards and the allocation of resources under two alternative assumptions:In one
case, stiffer sanctions have a direct impact only on the hiring of illegal aliens (case
B). In the other case they are assumed to increase the expected cost of hiring not
only foreign, but also (to some extent) native clandestine workers.
5.1. TougherSanctions thatAffect Only the Cost of HiringIllegalAliens. If the
measures affect only the employment of illegal foreign workers and have no direct
implicationsfor clandestine natives employed in the undergroundeconomy (or, as in
case B, if there are no natives employed in the underground economy), then the
only consequence of tougher sanctions is to lower the wage received by migrantsby
the amount equal to the increase in the expected (sanction-inclusive)cost of hiring
illegal aliens. Wages of all native workers, relative commodity prices and resource
allocation all remain unaffected.
Although not modelled explicitly in the present study, there are two obvious
channels through which tougher measures could have an impact on native workers
even in case B. First, contrary to what has been assumed in Section 3, in a more
general setting the government's enforcement budget need not be continuously
balanced. Tougher sanctions may then reflect an increase in fines imposed on firms
convicted of hiring illegal aliens while enforcement expenditures are held constant.
Such a policy change would generate a surplus in the enforcement budget, enabling
the government to transfer excess revenues to native workers. It would serve to
redistribute income from illegal aliens to native workers. Alternatively, if tougher
measures consist exclusively of an increase in enforcement expenditures which are
not fully covered by a larger number of fines collected (given the enforcement
technology), all the net costs-in the presence of perfect international capital
mobility-would be a burden to the native workers.
Second, tougher enforcement measures and/or fines may serve to deter future
immigration flows, as well as induce (or compel by means of deportation) return
migration, lowering the economy's stock of illegal aliens. If the stock of illegal
12
Quotingsome of the examplesreportedby OECD (1992)will sufficeto illustratethe trend:
In France,for instance,a new measure(Act of 31 December1991)increasesthe penaltiesthat
can be imposedon employersof undocumentedaliens and on the organizednetworksthat smuggle
them in .... Anyone convictedof resortingto services of an undocumentedimmigrantworker,
whetherdirectlyor throughan intermediary,is jointlyliablewith that intermediaryfor the payment
of anyfines, taxesor other chargesincurred,as well as that of both employer'sand employee'ssocial
securitycontributionsand the wages due to the worker.
The Netherlandsintroducedin 1991 new employersanctions.Employersare now liable for the
cost of expulsion of the foreigner concerned.The Dutch authoritieshave also recruitedmore
inspectors... and havesteppedup the frequencyof controls.... Germanyintroducedon 1 July1991
a rule stipulatingthat... an employertakingon a foreignworkermust informthe social security
authoritiesof the recruitmentdate... . In the economicsectors knownnot alwaysto complywith
the laws governingthe employmentof foreigners(for instance,the buildingtrade, cleaning and
other services)the authoritiescheck on employersand maychallengethem at any time to produce
their workers'social securitycards(p. 32).
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ILLEGALIMMIGRATION
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110
TABLE2
SANCTIONS
EFFECTSOF TOUGHEREMPLOYER
On Variables:
Row 1
S-R
(Case A)
Py
PZ
Py/Pz
Y/X
Sx
Ly
00
Row 2
L-R
(Case A)
natives ends up being skilled in the long run. Their only consolation is that illegal
foreign workers experience an even larger decline in real income.
The direction in which the key variables are affected in the short run is the same
as in the long run with only one exception. The number of skilled workers employed
in sector X is constant in the short run and declines only in the long run. Short- and
long-run effects on the key variables are summarizedin Table 2 in Rows 1 and 2,
respectively.
5.3. Amnesty. Countries with large numbers of clandestine foreign workers
have attempted in a number of cases to deal with some of the consequences of
illegal immigrationby legalizing the status of some, but usually not all such workers
(see the Commission of the European Communities 1991). In the context of the
present model, legalization of the status of a clandestine foreign worker may be
interpreted to imply, as it often does in reality, that he or she is also required to
leave the underground economy and obtain employment in one of the official
sectors.15 If we assume that both native and foreign clandestine workers are
employed in sector Z (case A), then the only effect of the legalization measure is to
force foreign workers out of the underground economy and into sector Y, where
they switch places with an equal number of (perfectly mobile) native unskilled
workers who end up in sector Z. Production of the three goods, factor rewards,
commodity prices, and the government's tax revenues remain unaffected in that
case, both in the short run and in the long run. This is recorded in Rows 1 and 2 of
Table 3.
Alternatively, if only foreign workers are employed in sector Z (case B), then a
policy of legalizing a certain number of clandestine foreign workerswill increase the
supply of unskilled labor in sector Y of the official economy while lowering
the supply of clandestine workers in sector Z. As shown in Row 3 of Table 3, in the
short run, this shift in the supply of unskilled labor from the underground to the
official economy raises the wage U in sector Z and lowers the wage V in sector Y.
In response to these changes in the supply of labor and wages, there is an
increase in output of good Y, a decline in Py, and a decline in the capital-labor
ratio employed in sector Y. In sector Z, output falls, Pz rises, and the capital
15Legalizationprocedureoften requiresof an illegal alien to become employedin the official
economy.In Spain,for example,Law of Foreignersof 1985 allowsfor the legalizationof an illegal
residentprovidedhe or she applies for such a procedureand producesthe requireddocuments,
includinga laborcontract.See the Commissionof the EuropeanCommunities(1991,p. 87).
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ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION
TABLE3
EFFECTSOF LEGALIZING
THE STATUSOF SOMECLANDESTINE
FOREIGNWORKERS
On Variables:
Py
Pz
Py/Pz
Y/X
Sx
Ly
Row 1
S-R (Case A)
L - R (Case A)
Row 3
S-R (Case B)
0?
Row 2
Row4
L-R (Case B)
I T
tT
intensity of production increases. These changes also affect sector X, where the
increase in Pz entails a decline in the skilled wage W. This in turn lowers the capital
intensity of production and hence output of good X. Production of X falls in the
same proportion as that of Z.
In essence, the amnesty programin case B deprives native workers of the benefits
they enjoyed as a result of an increase in the stock of illegal aliens. With an amnesty,
Pz is driven up, reducing the rents enjoyed by individualswith the status of a skilled
native worker. Similarly,by shifting foreign workersfrom the undergroundeconomy
and into sector Y, the amnesty cuts the income of those with the status of a native
unskilled worker. Only the illegal aliens enjoy an increase in real income. Those who
legalize their status get a hike in wages as they switch from the underground
economy to sector Y. Those who remain undergroundbenefit from an increase in U.
The long-run effects, summarized in Row 4 of Table 3, are similar to those
observed in the short run. The only importantdifference is that the supply of skilled
workers, Sx, may either rise or fall in the transition to the steady state, depending
on whether W/V increases or declines in the short run.
5.4. Effects of an Amnesty When IllegalForeign WorkersAre Skilled. To this
point I have assumed that illegal foreign workers are unskilled. However, as noted
by a referee, it is often observed that clandestine foreign workers are "underemployed" in the sense that they are skilled, but have to work "underground"as
unskilled workers to avoid getting caught. If amnesty is given to them, they will work
in the formal sector as skilled workers. To analyze the effects of an amnesty under
this alternative assumption, we need to distinguish once again between cases A
and B.
In case A, legalization of a certain number of clandestine foreign workers would
have no long-run effects on prices, outputs and factor rewardsfor reasons that are
alreadyfamiliar. However, in the short run, allowing foreign workers to move out of
the underground economy and into skilled jobs in sector X tends to lower W while
raising V and U. At the same time it raises Pz and Py, while the ratio PyIPZ rises
or falls depending on whether sector Y or sector Z is relatively more labor
intensive. Outputs of X and Z increase, while that of Y declines. In summary,an
amnesty in this case lowers in the short run the real income of skilled natives while
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DJAJIC
increasingthat of unskilled natives, unskilled illegal foreign workers, and (to a larger
extent) skilled foreign workers who benefit from the amnesty directly.16
6.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
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113
either leaves their wages unchanged (as when natives are employed in the underground economy) or it redistributes income from natives to illegal aliens (as when
only foreign workers are employed underground).
Having discussed the consequences of illegal immigration in the context of a
highly stylized model, it is appropriate to ask how sensitive the results are to
changes in the underlyingassumptions.An inspection of alternativespecifications of
the economy's structure reveals that the results are rather robust. If, for example,
the illegal foreign workers are used in a sector producing a final (instead of an
intermediate) good, an inflow of clandestine foreign workers would tend to lower
the price of that sector's output, increasing the real income of native workers
employed in other sectors at any given level of nominal wages. In addition, by
causing the economy to expand, such an inflow serves to stimulate the demand for
goods produced by native labor throughout the economy, resulting in higher wages
and/or more favorable employment conditions. In general, with an externallygiven
rate of return on capital, a negative effect on the real income of native unskilled
workers is observed only if such workers are employed in the undergroundeconomy
along with illegal aliens and if the price of their output falls. Introduction of an
additional, fixed factor of production into the model (such as land), would generate
effects of illegal immigrationwhich are less favorablefrom the perspective of native
workers, although not that of the landlords or the host countryas a whole. However,
in assessing the full economic impact of illegal immigration,one should also bear in
mind the possible adverse congestion effects in both consumption and production,
as well as the negative externalities related to the activities of illegal aliens in the
economy.
APPENDIX
(A.2)
PY=ED(X-Y)
A
V= U
PPz
(A.3)
OsxW=
(A.4)
OLYV=PY
(A.5)
OLZU= Pz
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114
DJAJIC
(A.6)
Z=X
(A.7)
X = OKX'UXW
(A.8)
Y=LY+
(A.9)
Z=LZ+
(A.10)
T= AZ Z + (1 - Az)Ly
OKYUYv
OKZUZU
<0
(A.11)
(A.12)
(A.13)
Py/T=
-(OLYED/AzA) < 0
(A.14)
Pz/T=
-(OLzED/AzA)
(A.15)
(A.16)
Y/T=
<0
(ED/AZA)[(OKXO-XPOLZ/OSX)
+ (OLY/ED)] > 0
(A.17)
(A.18)
where
A
[OLY+
AZ))/Az]
Short-runeffects: Case B. When none of the native workers are employed in the
undergroundeconomy (case B), we note that the system of equations (A.1) through
(A.10) must be modified before we can examine the short-runeffects of an increase
in the stock of illegal foreign workers. First, (A.2) does not hold because the wages
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115
ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION
of native unskilled workers are no longer directly tied to the wage prevailingin the
underground economy. In addition, Ly= 0 in (A.8) because the stock of unskilled
labor in sector Y is constant. Finally, (A.10) can be dropped and Lz can be treated
as exogenous and equal to the percentage change in the stock of illegal immigrants.
It is then simple to solve (A.1) and (A.3) through (A.9) for the values of U, V, W,
Py, Pz, X, Y, and Z as functions of Lz.
(A.19)
U/Lz =
-( Osx/PLZ)/8
<O
(A.20)
V/Lz =
ED0KXofX/(OLY+
EDOKYY)
(A.21)
(A.22)
X/LZ
(A.23)
Y/Lz =
Z/LZ
= OKX fX!8>0
Py/Lz
(A.25)
Pz/Lz =
ED0KYCTY) 8>0
OKY(TYED0KX(TX/(0LY+
= OLYEDOKXoX/(OLY+
(A.24)
8>0
ED0KYoY)8>
-(OLzOsX/pOLz)/8<O
where 8
hKXOX+(0KZ oZ@Sx/pOLz)>0
Row 3 of Table 1. Note that
Tese
(OLY/ED) + OKYOY*
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116
DJAJIC
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