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HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

18 August, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

VIEW POINT

MAJOR CURRENCY
Prev.
Close
66.853
94.656
1.129
1.299
99.98
66.836

Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

66.765
94.593
1.130
1.305
100.080
66.966

Chg.

% Chg.

-0.088
-0.063
0.001
0.006
0.100
0.130

-0.13%
-0.07%
0.12%
0.48%
0.10%
0.19%

GLOBAL INDICES
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Close

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SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8659.5
8624.1
28005.4
23152.4
16714.6
3113.5
2182.2
18573.9
5228.7
6859.2
4417.7
10537.7

8629.0
8642.6
28064.6
22799.8
16745.6
3109.6
2178.2
18552.0
5227.1
6893.9
4460.4
10676.7

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY

Chg.

% Chg.

31
-19
-59
353
-31
4
4
22
2
-35
-43
-139

0.35%
-0.21%
-0.21%
1.55%
-0.19%
0.13%
0.19%
0.12%
0.03%
-0.50%
-0.96%
-1.30%

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

Segment

16-Aug-16

12-Aug-16

Equity

1272.93

640.94

Debt

407.78

-649.67

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

RUPEE CONSOLIDATES NEAR 200 SDMA


The currency market was closed on Wednesday on account of a
Parsi New Year holiday. In the absence of any fresh triggers on the
global and domestic fronts, the rupee may continue to remain
within the range of 66.65 to 67.00 for some more time. The rupee
on Tuesday gained 13 paise to close at 66.76 a dollar as fresh
selling of the US currency by exporters and banks helped it snap
the two-day fall. Beside weakness in domestic equity market the
sharp up move in crude oil priced aided dollar strength against
rupee.
The 10-year bond yield closed at 7.105%, from its Fridays close of
7.103%.
Technically, USDINR august future is having support around 66.70
and resistance 67.48. The bias for the pair remains bearish till it
trades above 67.48.
Dollar Edges Lower After Fed Minutes; Yen Surges Past 100
The US dollar gave away early gains and edged lower against the
euro and yen on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal
Reserve's July meeting showed general agreement that more data
was needed before the next rate increase from the central bank.
The dollar index was last down 0.11% at 94.58 after gaining about
0.3% to 95.102 earlier Wednesday. The euro was last up 0.09%
against the greenback at $1.13 after hitting a session high of
$1.1315, which remained below Tuesday's more than seven-week
high of $1.1322. The Yen firmed 0.56% to 99.72 yen per dollar,
coming within sight of its seven-week peak of 99.55 to the dollar
set on Tuesday. A break there would open the way for a test of its
2 year high of 99.00 to the dollar touched on June 24 in the
wake of Britain's EU referendum results. The pound fetched
$1.3050, after momentarily falling to as low as $1.2850 from what
appeared to be a "fat finger" trading mistake.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR AUGUST FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

The pair has given negative crossover, as medium term moving average crossed short term moving average upward.

Lower Tops and Lower Bottoms Intact on daily chart.

Pair has been trading below 200 SDMA, placed at 67.08

Momentum Oscillators are weakening on daily time scale.

Recent bottom of 66.72 is strong support, while resistance for the same is placed at 67.49.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
Aug Month

Last

Pivot

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

66.87

66.92

66.60

66.72

66.80

67.00

67.12

67.19

EURINR

75.51

75.30

74.36

74.60

75.06

75.75

75.99

76.45

GBPINR

86.92

86.78

85.86

86.12

86.52

87.18

87.44

87.84

JPYINR

66.84

66.77

66.19

66.36

66.60

67.01

67.18

67.42

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

66.98

66.67

67.51

66.67

68.79

64.70

66.81

66.97

67.14

66.94

66.92

EURINR

74.76

73.97

75.42

73.63

77.49

70.24

74.62

74.35

74.90

75.17

74.16

GBPINR

87.46

86.50

90.20

86.16

105.28

86.16

86.75

87.78

90.52

93.42

95.64

JPYINR

66.08

65.19

67.30

62.64

68.11

52.39

66.04

65.01

64.84

62.95

59.99

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Vol.

Vol. Chg

Open
Interest

Chg.

SPOT USDINR

66.85

66.93

66.74

66.77

-0.12

--

--

--

--

USDINR Aug FUT.

66.97

67.04

66.85

66.87

-0.13

1925114

163785

797423

216977

SPOT EURINR

74.86

75.42

74.78

75.36

0.78

--

--

--

--

EURINR Aug FUT.

74.96

75.54

74.85

75.51

0.77

49328

5813

70342

37514

SPOT GBPINR

86.28

86.84

86.16

86.73

0.43

--

--

--

--

GBPINR Aug FUT.

86.50

87.04

86.38

86.92

0.05

59658

59658

84432

22616

SPOT JPYINR

66.24

66.81

66.23

66.78

0.55

--

--

--

--

JPYINR Aug FUT.

66.56

66.94

66.53

66.84

1.19

57971

10440

65885

27080

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

ECO. DATA RELEASED


Date Time

08/17/2016
08/17/2016
08/17/2016
08/17/2016

14:00
14:00
16:30
23:30

Country

UK
UK
US
US

Event

Period

Survey

Claimant Count
Jul
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths
Jun
MBA Mortgage Applications
12-Aug
FOMC Meeting Minutes
27-Jul

Actual

9.5k
4.90%
---

Prior

-8.6k
4.90%
-4.00%
--

0.9k
4.90%
7.10%
--

ECO. DATA TODAY


Date Time

08/18/2016
08/18/2016
08/18/2016
08/18/2016
08/18/2016
08/18/2016
08/18/2016
08/18/2016

13:30
14:30
14:30
14:30
18:00
18:00
18:00
19:30

Country

EC
EC
EC
EC
US
US
US
US

Event

ECB Current Account SA


Construction Output MoM
CPI MoM
CPI YoY
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
Leading Index

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Period

Jun
Jun
Jul
Jul F
13-Aug
6-Aug
Aug
Jul

Survey

---0.50%
0.20%
265k
2141k
2
0.30%

Prior

30.8b
-0.50%
0.20%
0.10%
266k
2155k
-2.9
0.30%

Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)


Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com
Disclosure:
I/We, Dilip Parmar and Vinay Rajani, MBA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer (s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any position in Instruments NO
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]