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Newpoll:TrumpleadshrinksinTexas,withinmarginoferr

JasonWhitely,WFAA

10:26PM.CDTOctober13,2016

DALLASAfterperhapsthemostdamagingweekofhis
campaign,DonaldTrumpsleadinTexashasslippedtofour
percentagepointswithinthemarginoferroraccordingtoa
newpollreleasedThursdaynight.
Thesurvey,commissionedbyWFAATVandTexasTEGNA
televisionstations,showsTrumpleadingHillaryClintonby47
percentto43percent.Themarginoferrorisfourpercent.
"IthinktoputthesenumbersincontextitshowsthatTrump's
positionhaserodedalittlebit.Hisleadisdowntofourpercentagepointsaccordingtothispoll,
buteveninthewakeofsomereallyterriblenewsforhim,hestillleadsinTexas,whichshows
whatatoughnutTexasistocrackforDemocraticcandidatesrightnow,saidMatthewWilson,
AssociateProfessorofPoliticalScienceatSouthernMethodistUniversityinDallas.
Don'tseegraphicsbelow?Taphere(http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/texasnews/newpoll
trumpleadshrinksintexaswithinmarginoferror/335896258).

SurveyUSAconductedthepollbetweenMondayandWednesdayofthisweekafterboththe
2005videoinwhichTrumpusedlewdcommentsdescribingwomenandthesecondpresidential
debateinSt.LouisonSundaynight.
Inrecentweeks,twootherstatewidepollsshowedTrumpupbysixandsevenpoints,
respectively.
"ItprettyconsistentlyshowsthatTrumpisstrugglinginTexasmorethanaRepublicantypically
would,Wilsonadded.He'sstillhighlylikelytowinthestateintheendbutwetypicallysee
doubledigitmarginsforRepublicancandidatesandTrumpseemsunlikelytoproducethat.
Forperspective,MittRomneywonTexasby16pointsin2012,JohnMcCainwonthisstateby13
pointsin2008,GeorgeW.Bushcarriedhishomestateby23pointsin2004,and22pointsin
2000whenhewaselectedtohisfirstterm.
TheerodingsupportinthelargestRepublicanstateinthecountrycouldsuggestdeeper
problemsforTrumpnationwide,Wilsonexplained.

Regionally,TrumpleadsbyeightpointsinNorthTexas,whichincludesDallasandFortWorth
and41surroundingcounties.InHoustonand59surroundingcountiesmakingupeastand
southeastTexas,TrumpleadsClintonbysixpoints.
TrumphashisstrongestsupportinwestTexas,includingElPasoand87countiesleadinghis
Democraticchallengerby15points.
ButClintonisaheadinAustin,SanAntonioandCentralTexas.Shealsoleadsbyninepointsin
theRioGrandeValley.
Separately,theapprovalratingforU.S.Sen.TedCruzisevenlysplit45percentapproveofhis
jobperformanceand45percentdisapprovewith10percentuncertain.

"Itsuggeststhathemaybelookingatasignificantprimarychallengeacoupleyearsfromnow
andIknowthat'ssomethinghe'sgotonhismind,saidWilson.
Cruz,whofacesreelectionin2018,refusedtoendorseTrumpinahighprofilespeechatthe
RepublicanNationalConventionbutfinallygaveinafterintensepressurefromhisownparty.
Respondentsinthesurveyalsogaveopinionsontwosocialissuesmakingheadlinesinthis
stateoverrecentweeks.
Whenaskedwhethertransgenderstudentsshouldbeabletousetherestroomwithwhichthe
identify,54percentsaidno,38percentsaidyes,andeightpercentwereuncertain.

"Theotherinterestingthingthatitpointstoisthatyou'vegotsomenumberofpeoplewhoare
sayingtheyopposetransgenderstudentsusingthebathroomoftheirchoicewhoarealsosaying
theysupportHillaryClintonbecause54percentofpeopleareopposedtotransgenderbathroom

accessbutyou'veonlygot40somethingpercentsupportingDonaldTrump.Thosepeopleare
almostcertainlyblackandLatinovoterswho'vegotsociallyconservativevaluesbutwhoare
attractedtotheDemocraticticketforotherreasons,saidWilson.
WhenaskedifrefugeesfromplacessuchasSyriashouldbeallowedtoresettleinTexas,54
percentsaidno,34percentsaidyesand13percentwereunsure.

Fourtyfourpercentofthosepolledsaiditis"veryimportant"foracandidatetoreleasehisorher
taxreturns.Amajorityofvotersfellbetween"somewhat"and"notatall"important.

ThepollalsoaskedvotersaboutLt.Gov.DanPatricksjobapproval.Oftheregisteredvoters,39
percentapprove,29percentdisapproveand33percentareuncertain.

TexasAttorneyGeneralKenPaxtonhadsimilarresultsofthosepolled,38percentapproveof
hisjobperformance,31percentdisapproveand31percentarenotsure.

Ofthe800adultsinterviewedoverthethreedaypoll,734wereregisteredtovote.Ofthe
registeredvoters,638weredeterminedbySurveyUSAtobelikelytovoteonorbefore
November8.Thisresearchwasconductedusingblendedsample,mixedmode.Respondents
reachableontheirhometelephone(67%oflikelyvoters)wereinterviewedontheircellphonesin
therecordedvoiceofaprofessionalannouncer.Respondentsnotreachableonahome
telephone(33%oflikelyvoters)wereshownaquestionnaireonthedisplayoftheirsmartphone,
tabletorotherelectronicdevice.

Methodology:
Thispollwasconductedbytelephoneinthevoiceofaprofessionalannouncer.Respondent
householdswereselectedatrandom,usingRandomDigitDialed(RDD)sampleprovidedby
SurveySampling,ofFairfieldCT.Allrespondentsheardthequestionsaskedidentically.The
pollster'sreportincludesthegeographythatwassurveyedthedate(s)interviewswere
conducted,thenumberofrespondentswhoansweredeachquestionandthetheoreticalmargin
ofsamplingerrorforeachquestion.Wherenecessary,respondentswereweightedusingthe
mostrecentUSCensusestimatesforage,gender,ethnicoriginandregion,toalignthesample
tothepopulation.Intheory,onecansaywith95%certaintythattheresultswouldnotvaryby
morethanthestatedmarginofsamplingerror,inonedirectionortheother,hadtheentire
universeofrespondentswithhometelephonesbeeninterviewedwithcompleteaccuracy.There
areotherpossiblesourcesoferrorinallsurveysthatmaybemoreseriousthansamplingerror.
Theseinclude:thedifficultyofinterviewingrespondentswhodonothaveahometelephonethe
refusalbysomewithhometelephonestobeinterviewedtheorderinwhichquestionsareasked
thewordingofquestionsthewayandextenttowhichdataareweightedandthemannerin
whichspecializedpopulations,suchaslikelyvoters,aredetermined.Itisdifficulttoquantifythe

errorsthatmayresultfromtheseandotherfactors.Researchmethodology,questionnairedesign
andfieldworkforthissurveywerecompletedbySurveyUSAofClifton,NJ.Thisstatement
conformstotheprinciplesofdisclosureoftheNationalCouncilonPublicPolls.
Copyright2016WFAA

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