Month

Orders
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

3PMA
120
90
100
75
110
50
75
130
110
90

5PMA

e 3PMA

e 5PMA

3P MAD
103
88
95
78
78
85
105
110

-28
22
-45
-3
52
25
-15

99
85
82
88
95
91
MAD
MAPE

Least MAD is the best one

% error
Accuracy

28
22
45
3
52
25
15
190
27

0.054
0.028
0.129
0.006
0.057
0.032
0.024

0.330
0.670

-49
-10
48
22
-5

5P MAD

49
0.196
10 0.026667
48 0.073846
22
0.04
5 0.011111
134
26.8
0.347624
0.652376

W
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Demand (At)
820
775
680
655
780
802
798
689
775

Ft, alp=0.1 Ft, alp=0.6

820
820
820
820
815.5
793
801.95
725.2
787.255
683.08
786.5295
741.232
788.07655
777.6928
789.068895 789.87712
779.0620055 729.350848
778.65580495 756.740339

MAD,0.1 (error)
0
45
135.5
146.95
7.255
-15.4705
-9.92345
100.068895
4.0620055
Total
MAD,0.1

Abs, 0.1
0
45
135.5
146.95
7.255
15.4705
9.92345
100.0689
4.062005

MAPE
0
0.058065
0.199265
0.224351
0.009301
0.01929
0.012435
0.145238
0.005241

464.2299
51.58109
Total
MAPE,0.1
Accu, 0.1

MAD,0.6 (error)
0
45
113
70.2
-96.92
-60.768
-20.3072
100.87712
-45.649152
Total
MAD,0.6

0.673186
0.074798
0.925202

Abs, 0.6
0
45
113
70.2
96.92
60.768
20.3072
100.87712
45.649152

MAPE
0
0.058065
0.166176
0.107176
0.124256
0.075771
0.025448
0.146411
0.058902

552.721472
61.41349689
Total
MAPE,0.6
Accu,0.6

0.762204
0.084689
0.915311

Ft= Ft-1 + alpha(At-1 - Ft-1)

alpha=0.1
see form fr MAD/MAPE in
copy
here we want F/C for 10th
period

Month

Demand
1
12
2
17
3
20
4
19
5
24
6
26
7
31
8
32
9
36

Ft, alph=0.2 Tt, beta=0.4

11
0
11.2
0.08
12.36
0.512
13.888
0.9184
14.9104
0.96
16.72832
1.303168
18.582656
1.5236352
21.0661248
1.90756864
23.25289984
2.0192512

FIT
11
11.28
12.872
14.8064
15.8704
18.03149
20.10629
22.97369
25.27215

alpha=0.2 ini F=11

beta=0.4 ini T=0

Quarter

Y1
1
2
3
4

Total
Average

Y2
45
335
520
100
1000
250

FC for Y5 is 2600
so each is 650

Y3
70
370
590
170
1200
300

Y4
100
585
830
285
1800
450

SI 1
100
725
1160
215
2200
550

SI 2
0.18 0.233333
1.34 1.233333
2.08 1.966667
0.4 0.566667

SI 3
SI 4
0.222222 0.181818
1.3 1.318182
1.844444 2.109091
0.633333 0.390909

Avg SI
0.204343
1.297879
2.000051
0.497727

Forecast *AVG SI
650 132.8232
650 843.6212
650 1300.033
650 323.5227