European Portugal - Whereto

European
Portugal Whereto?
A comparative analysis of growth statistics in Portugal relative to the European Union

and the Eurozone, 1995-2015
Miguel Santana, miguel_santana@me.com
Analysis

For the entire period and irrespective of the price index used, GDP per capita at the Euro Area is higher
than both at the European Union and at Portugal. These differences are amplified if we measure GDP at constant
prices instead of current prices. Notice also that, across time, the gap widened at constant prices (base year
2010, for further reference), but at current prices, stayed roughly the same with respect to the European Union
and increased with respect to the Euro Area.
In terms of growth, Portugals aggregate GDP at current prices had an average rate for the entire period
of 3,45%, higher than the Euro Area (3,18%) but lower than the European Union (3,53%). At constant prices,
these numbers shift entirely: Portugal has the lower rate at 1,14% (vs. 1,67% and 1,65% in the EU and the EA,
respectively). Notice also that minimum growth occurs in 2009 for the EU and EA, but in Portugal the worst year
was 2012.

Now, in per capita terms there is possibility of convergence: at current prices, Portugals GDP had the
highest growth rate (3,29%), followed by the European Union (3,25%) and the Euro Area (2,38%). This implies,
caeteris paribus, that Portugal would, in per capita terms, have the same GDP as the former in the year 3501
and as the latter in 2080. This, however, changes when we turn to constant prices. Using that measure, Portugal
grew less than the European Union, but slightly more than in the Euro Area, causing divergence with the former
and slower convergence with the latter (as late as 2518). Hence, all these facts lead us to conclude that prices
played a big role in nominal growth and, indeed, in Portugal the average inflation rate was 2,29%, the highest of
the three (1,83% in the EU and 1,5% in the EA). Finally, it is worth noting that the Portuguese series is always
more volatile than the other two, but at the same time it is more symmetric and mesokurtic. Correlation is strong
at both aggregate and per capita levels, for any price index.

For the period between 1995 and 2008, growth rates are generally higher. Specifically, at the aggregate
level Portugal has the highest average annual growth in nominal terms (5,33%). In real terms, albeit higher than
for the entire period, it grows the least of the three (2,22% vs 2,36% in the EU and 2,37% in the EA). As for GDP
per person, rates are generally about 1 p.p. lower, even though in real terms Portugal now has higher growth
than the Euro Area (1,81% vs. 1,58%). This suggests that price effects once more dominate the series in this
period, Portugals average inflation rate was 0,76 p.p. higher than for the whole period, while in the EU and the
EA it was only 0,28 p.p. and 0,25 p.p. higher, respectively. As for convergence, it is accelerated in both real and
nominal terms.
Finally, between 2008 and 2015, growth decreases sharply. In nominal terms aggregate GDP almost
does not grow in Portugal (0,05% vs. 1,70% in the EU and 1,39% in the EA), and in real terms it decreases about
0,82% (vs. positive growth of 0,40% and 0,34% in the EU and the EA, respectively). As for GDP per person,
Portugal also has the lower growth, even though it is slightly better both in nominal and real terms. However,
the EU and the EA are worse in per capita terms than in the aggregate 0,14 and -0,44% average growth
respectively. This implies that if countries grew at this rate forever, there would be no convergence of GDP
between Portugal and the common area which it integrates. This situation is, of course, due to the fact that
Portugal was one of the affected countries by the debt crisis in 2011-2012 (besides the financial crisis in 20082009), causing a second trough which is dissipated when we consider the entire EU or EA.

Graphics

Levels

Log of GDP per capita at current prices, 1995-2015
10.4
10.2
10.0
9.8
9.6
9.4
European Union
Euro Area
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
9.0
1995
9.2
Portugal

Log of GDP per capita at constant prices, 1995-2015
10.4
10.3
10.2
10.1
10.0
9.9
9.8
9.7
9.6
European Union
Euro Area
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
9.5
Portugal
Per period

10.4
10.4
10.2
10.3
10.0
10.2
10.1
9.8
10.0
9.6
9.9
9.4
European Union
Euro Area
Portugal
European Union
Euro Area
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
9.6
1997
9.0
1996
9.7
1995
9.2
2008
9.8
Portugal

10.4
10.3
10.2
10.1
10.0
9.9
9.8
European Union
Euro Area
Portugal
European Union
Euro Area
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
9.6
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
9.7
1995
10.4
10.3
10.2
10.1
10.0
9.9
9.8
9.7
9.6
9.5
Portugal
Growth Rates
1995-2015
European Union
Euro Area
European Union
Portugal
Euro Area
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
-6%
1996
-4%
2003
0%
-2%
2002
2%
2001
4%
2000
6%
1999
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
8%
1998
10%
1997
GDP at constant prices
1996
GDP at current prices
Portugal
GDP per capita, current prices
GDP per capita, constant prices
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
European Union
Euro Area
Portugal
Euro Area
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
European Union
1997
-6%
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
-8%
1996
-4%
-6%
Portugal
1996-2008

5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
European Union
Euro Area
Portugal
European Union
Euro Area
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
-2%
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
-1%
1996
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Portugal
8%
5%
7%
4%
6%
3%
5%
2%
4%
1%
3%
0%
2%
European Union
Euro Area
Portugal
European Union
Euro Area
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
-2%
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0%
1996
-1%
1%
Portugal

2008-2015

6%
3%
2%
4%
1%
2%
0%
0%
-1%
-2%
-2%
-3%
-4%
European Union
Euro Area
Portugal
European Union
Euro Area
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
-5%
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
-6%
-4%
Portugal
0%
-2%
-4%
European Union
Euro Area
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
-8%
2009
-6%
Portugal
European Union
Euro Area
2015
2%
2014
4%
2013
6%
2012
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
2011
8%
2010
2009
Portugal
Descriptive Statistics

Level Statistics

European Union
Euro Area
Average GDP per capita relative to Portugal at current prices

1995-2015
1995-2008
2008-2015
58,88%
58,63%
58,70%
83,26%
86,18%
77,07%

European Union
Euro Area
Average GDP per capita relative to Portugal at constant prices

1995-2015
1995-2008
2008-2015
49,26%
45,92%
55,46%
73,82%
73,26%
74,89%
1995-2015


European Union Euro Area Portugal European Union Euro Area Portugal
Sample Average
3,57%
!(Portugal)-!(.)
-0,06%
Median
3,51%
0,31% -
1,69%
-0,52%
1,67%
1,17%
-0,50% -
3,45%
4,19%
2,10%
1,89%
1,57%
Minimum
-5,81%
-2,80%
-4,41%
-4,37%
-3,77%
-4,03%
Maximum
7,39%
6,77%
8,06%
3,85%
4,52%
4,79%
Argmin
2009
2009
2012
2009
2009
2012
Argmax
2000
2001
1999
2000
2001
1998
Standard Deviation
2,84%
2,10%
3,39%
1,79%
1,86%
2,42%
Variation Coefficient
79,68%
65,55%
96,71%
106,04%
["(Portugal)/"(.)]-1
19,45%
61,63% -
35,34%
111,25% 206,70%
30,35% -
-1,99
-1,07
-0,86
-2,19
-1,30
-0,52
5,56
2,52
0,22
6,47
2,80
-0,22
0.05
0,23%
0,21%
-2,21%
-0,65%
-1,04%
-3,03%
0.95
6,01%
5,80%
7,41%
3,33%
3,85%
4,44%
Interquartil Range
2,42%
1,80%
3,97%
1,46%
2,04%
2,83%
Kurtosis
Correlation
Geometric Mean
Year of Convergence
3,20%
4,33%
Skewness
70,22%
3,53%
-4297,61
73,26% -
3,18%
3554,62 -
77,21%
3,45%
1,67%
1176,72
77,56% -
1,65%
1,14%
1208,28 -
GDP per capita at current prices

GDP per capita at constant prices
Sample Average
3,29%
2,40%
!(Portugal)-!(.)
0,04%
0,93% -
Median
3,95%
2,55%
4,08%
1,77%
1,10%
1,40%
Minimum
-6,08%
-4,74%
-4,02%
-4,65%
-5,69%
-3,64%
Maximum
7,14%
4,94%
7,45%
3,61%
3,48%
4,26%
Argmin
2009
2009
2012
2009
2009
2012
Argmax
2000
2000
1999
2000
2000
1998
Standard Deviation
2,85%
2,13%
3,12%
1,79%
1,97%
2,20%
86,52%
88,62%
93,50%
126,64%
9,45%
46,19% -
-1,98
-2,01
-0,98
-2,17
-1,96
-0,60
5,50
6,08
0,46
6,42
5,90
-0,22
0.05
-0,16%
-0,15%
-2,11%
-0,88%
-1,40%
-3,10%
0.95
5,66%
4,61%
6,67%
2,97%
2,75%
3,98%
Interquartil Range
2,45%
1,95%
3,43%
1,52%
1,86%
2,59%
Skewness
Kurtosis
Correlation
Geometric Mean
Year of Convergence
72,39%
3,25%
3501,63
3,33%
1,42%
-0,41%
22,98%
74,38% -
2,38%
79,00%
3,29%
2080,61 -
0,88%
1,00%
0,12% -
223,14% 220,10%
11,72% -
79,70% -
1,40%
0,87%
0,98%
1902,78
2518,72
0,00
1995-2008


Sample Average
4,54%
4,17%
!(Portugal)-!(.)
0,81%
1,18% -
Median
4,97%
4,12%
5,55%
2,54%
2,57%
1,94%
Minimum
0,54%
2,15%
1,94%
0,41%
0,60%
-0,93%
Maximum
7,39%
6,77%
8,06%
3,85%
4,52%
4,79%
Argmin
2008
1997
2008
2008
2003
2003
Argmax
2000
2001
1999
2000
2001
1998
Standard Deviation
1,82%
1,32%
1,85%
0,95%
1,23%
1,76%
40,21%
31,74%
34,59%
40,10%
51,91%
79,12%
1,43%
39,83% -
85,93%
43,21% -
-0,99
0,35
-0,44
-0,55
0,00
-0,16
1,18
-0,28
-0,45
0,00
-0,91
-0,95
0.05
1,14%
2,42%
2,26%
0,96%
0,64%
-0,25%
0.95
6,52%
6,16%
7,65%
3,52%
4,10%
4,57%
Interquartil Range
1,62%
1,72%
2,69%
1,16%
1,56%
3,02%
Skewness
Kurtosis
Correlation
Geometric Mean
Year of Convergence
77,20%
4,52%
2562,29
5,35%
-0,14%
36,91% -
4,16%
2362,95 -
2,37%
68,82%
5,33%
2,36%
-982,88
2,37%
2,23%
-0,14% -
59,14% -
2,37%
2,22%
-687,18 -

Sample Average
4,25%
3,36%
!(Portugal)-!(.)
0,67%
1,57% -
Median
4,61%
3,60%
4,99%
2,15%
1,68%
1,57%
Minimum
0,15%
1,68%
1,79%
0,02%
-0,24%
-1,31%
Maximum
7,14%
4,94%
7,45%
3,61%
3,48%
4,26%
Argmin
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2003
Argmax
2000
2000
1999
2000
2000
1998
Standard Deviation
1,86%
1,08%
1,72%
0,98%
1,19%
1,68%
43,71%
32,06%
34,83%
46,97%
75,27%
92,02%
-7,67%
59,24% -
70,97%
40,81% -
Skewness
4,93%
2,09%
-0,27%
1,58%
1,82%
0,24% -
-1,05
-0,14
-0,50
-0,62
-0,11
-0,23
1,30
-1,33
-0,34
0,16
-1,26
-0,78
0.05
0,76%
1,83%
1,97%
0,59%
-0,09%
-0,49%
0.95
6,21%
4,73%
6,96%
3,21%
3,02%
4,08%
Interquartil Range
1,45%
1,71%
2,46%
1,21%
2,23%
2,53%
Kurtosis
Correlation
Geometric Mean
Year of Convergence
82,51%
4,24%
2074,62
58,87% -
3,36%
74,06%
4,92%
2045,26 -
80,14% -
2,08%
1,58%
1,81%
1852,43
2250,18
0,00
2008-2015


Sample Average
European
Union
1,76%
!(Portugal)-!(.)
-1,67%
Median
Euro Area
Portugal
1,41%
0,09%
-1,32% -
European Union Euro Area

0,42%
-1,22%
Portugal
0,36%
-0,80%
-1,16% -
2,93%
2,13%
1,11%
1,54%
1,28%
-1,13%
Minimum
-5,81%
-2,80%
-4,41%
-4,37%
-3,77%
-4,03%
Maximum
5,04%
3,60%
3,73%
2,22%
2,39%
1,90%
Argmin
2009
2009
2012
2009
2009
2012
Argmax
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2010
3,61%
2,16%
2,94%
2,34%
2,19%
2,32%
153,54% 3250,90%
552,42%
Standard Deviation
205,15%
-18,64%
Skewness
36,12% -
-0,82%
609,14% -290,90%
5,74% -
-1,88
-1,38
-0,38
-1,77
-1,24
-0,13
4,03
1,98
-1,22
3,25
1,15
-1,73
0.05
-3,82%
-1,85%
-3,71%
-3,20%
-2,91%
-3,71%
0.95
4,80%
3,35%
3,38%
2,20%
2,30%
1,81%
Interquartil Range
2,28%
2,09%
4,11%
2,01%
2,48%
3,65%
Kurtosis
Correlation
Geometric Mean
Year of Convergence
48,53%
1,70%
1745,89
58,28% -
1,39%
1707,97 -
70,45%
0,05%
0,40%
1657,80
75,62% -
0,34%
-0,82%
1666,14 -


European Union
Sample Average
1,5%
!(Portugal)-!(.)
-1,1%
Median
Euro Area Portugal

0,6%
European Union
0,4%
-0,3% -
Euro Area Portugal
0,2%
-0,4%
-0,7%
-0,5%
-0,1% -
2,7%
1,3%
1,7%
1,3%
0,5%
-0,6%
Minimum
-6,1%
-4,7%
-4,0%
-4,7%
-5,7%
-3,6%
Maximum
4,7%
2,5%
4,2%
1,9%
1,8%
2,0%
Argmin
2009
2009
2012
2009
2009
2012
Argmax
2015
2010
2015
2015
2010
2015
Standard Deviation
3,6%
2,5%
3,0%
2,3%
2,5%
2,4%
240,4%
403,7%
822,1%
1424,0%
-614,9%
-450,6%
-16,5%
Skewness
19,2% -
1,3%
-7,1% -
-1,92
-2,02
-0,32
-1,82
-1,83
-0,19
4,17
4,42
-1,56
3,43
3,68
-2,01
0.05
-4,1%
-3,3%
-3,4%
-3,5%
-4,3%
-3,5%
0.95
4,5%
2,5%
3,7%
1,9%
1,6%
2,0%
Interquartil Range
2,2%
1,8%
4,3%
1,9%
1,9%
4,0%
Kurtosis
Correlation
51,0%
Geometric Mean
Year of Convergence
1,4%
1968,96
52,5% -
0,6%
73,0%
0,3%
1800,86 -
70,2% -
0,1%
1947,23
-0,4%
-0,5%
1487,21 -
Inflation Rates

1995-2015
1995-2008
2008-2015

European Union
1,83%
2,11%
1,30%
Euro Area
1,50%
1,75%
1,04%
Portugal
2,29%
3,05%
0,88%
10
Data and Sources

GDP and GDP deflator: Eurostat (2016). GDP and main components (output,
expenditure and income), Nama_10_GDP. Extracted on 12.10.16
Population: Eurostat (2016). Population and employment, Nama_10_PE. Extracted
on 12.10.16
Formulas:

Average growth rates and inflation rates are computed through a geometric mean.
The inflation rate is computed implicitly through the GDP deflator.
Year of convergence is linearly computed as
#()
=
ln()+,-. ln()+,0
ln(1 + 30 ) ln(1 + 3-. )
+ 4

where: f stands for the first year of the period,
() is the variable in question,
PT stands for Portugal,
I = European Union, Euro Area
11

European Portugal - Whereto

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European Portugal - Whereto

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European

A comparative analysis of growth statistics in Portugal relative to the European Union

Log of GDP per capita at current prices, 2008-2015

Log of GDP per capita at constant prices, 1995-2008

Log of GDP per capita at constant prices, 2008-2015

GDP at constant prices

GDP at current prices

GDP per capita, current prices

GDP per capita, constant prices

GDP at constant prices

GDP per capita, current prices

GDP per capita, constant prices

GDP at constant prices

GDP per capita, constant prices

GDP per capita, current prices

Average GDP per capita relative to Portugal at current prices

Average GDP per capita relative to Portugal at constant prices

GDP at constant prices

GDP per capita at current prices

GDP per capita at constant prices

GDP at constant prices

GDP per capita at current prices

GDP per capita at constant prices

GDP at constant prices

European Union Euro Area

GDP per capita at constant prices

Euro Area Portugal

Euro Area Portugal

Data and Sources

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