ONTARIO LEADERSHIP

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM EST, NOVEMBER 7, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,524 Ontario residents by Smart IVR on November 2nd, 2016. A mixture of landlines
and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.95%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age, gender and
geography based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.
WYNNE LIBERALS HEADED FOR DISASTER IN 2018
November 7, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds a grim electoral picture for Kathleen
Wynnes Ontario Liberals with 58% of Ontarians saying the Premier should resign. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll was
conducted November 2, 2016, with 2,524 respondents it has a margin of error of +/- 1.95%, 19 times out of 20.
With the next Ontario election just a little more than 18 months away, Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals
continue to plumb new depths as they now trail both the Patrick Brown led PCs and the Andrea Horwath led NDP
said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. Wynnes' approvals continue to drive down these numbers as her
approval is now just 15% compared to 67% who disapprove including 30% who strongly disapprove.
There is very little good news for the current government and it may get worse as the eects of the recent charges
against Ontario Liberal Party sta and operatives continue to dominate headlines. The really bad news is, there are
two current by-elections underway that may also be aected by the latest scandal. Niagara West Glanbrook was
vacated by former PC leader Tim Hudak and is likely to be held by the PCs with the likeliest competition coming from
the NDP who hold nearby seats. In Ottawa-Vanier, a close contest in a Liberal fortress riding could point to the
beginning of the end for the 13-year incumbent Ontario Liberal Government. A loss in Ottawa-Vanier would be
unthinkable, and could prompt an early exit by the embattled Premier.
Andrea Horwath continues to lead approval measures, now at 59% approval, including 26% strongly, and just 30%
disapproval with 17% strongly disapproving. As Kathleen Wynnes fortunes fall, left and centre left voters across
Ontario are turning to Horwath. Her high approvals have now started to register on the voter intentions as the NDP
now has the support of 27% among decided and leaning voters across Ontario compared to 25% for the Wynne led
Liberals.
Patrick Brown continues to make gains in approvals and awareness. Just 19% of Ontario voters are not aware of
Brown and his approval now rivals Horwath at 51% including 23% strongly approving. His disapproval matches
Horwath at 30%, but just 9% strongly disapprove of Brown. The PCs continue to lead among voters with 43% among
decided and leaning voters. The lead in Eastern Ontario of 20 points over the Liberals (48% to 28%) could point to a
closer than expected result in Ottawa-Vanier where star candidate Andre Marin is running for the Brown led PCs.
The really, really bad news for Ontario Liberals is that 59% of Ontario voters are following the recent charges against
Ontario Liberal Party sta and operatives, including 42% either Very or Somewhat closely. When asked if they believe
the Premier was involved in the case, 53% believe she may have, although just 2% believe she was very involved and
11% somewhat. Almost 6 in 10 people (58%) said the Premier should resign compared to less than 2 in 10 (17%) who
said she should not. A quarter of Ontarians were not sure whether the Premier should resign or not.
If there is a silver lining in these numbers for the Liberals, it would be that they continue to lead in the 416 with 35% to
the PCs 31% and NDPs 27% among decided and leaning voters. The rest of the numbers point to a possible wipeout
in the 905, South Central and Southwest with divided fortunes in Eastern and Northern Ontario, nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With years of political experience at all three levels of government,
President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion,
having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a
majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and
the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a
Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

-30Available from Ottawa: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

For More Information: David Valentin, david@mainstreetresearch.ca, 514-913-5524

A3

If a provincial election were held today, which

party would you support?

A4

If a provincial election were held today, which

party would you support?

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Liberal

16%

26%

12%

23%

19%

19%

PC

36%

35%

39%

34%

37%

35%

NDP

22%

17%

27%

17%

21%

21%

Green

8%

5%

3%

4%

5%

5%

Undecided

18%

18%

18%

23%

18%

20%

Sample

302

624

811

787

1,199

1,325

PC

ON

SW

SC

416

905

North

East

Liberal

19%

13%

16%

31%

17%

15%

16%

PC

36%

40%

39%

27%

37%

33%

43%

NDP

21%

31%

13%

21%

19%

23%

14%

Green

5%

6%

5%

6%

3%

3%

7%

Undecided

19%

10%

27%

15%

24%

26%

20%

2,524

409

407

449

461

349

449

Sample

A5

If a provincial election were held today, which

party would you support?
[DECIDED & LEANING]

A6

If a provincial election were held today, which

party would you support?
[DECIDED & LEANING]

A7

Do you approve or disapprove of the way

Kathleen Wynne is handling her job as Premier
of Ontario?

A8

Do you approve or disapprove of the way

Kathleen Wynne is handling her job as Premier
of Ontario?

A9

Do you approve or disapprove of the way

Andrea Horwath is handling her job as NDP
Leader?

A10

Do you approve or disapprove of the way

Andrea Horwath is handling her job as NDP
Leader?

A11

Do you approve or disapprove of the way

Patrick Brown is handling his job as Progressive
Conservative Leader?

A12

Do you approve or disapprove of the way

Patrick Brown is handling his job as Progressive
Conservative Leader?

A13
On Tuesday, the Ontario Provincial Police laid bribery charges
under the Elections Act against two Ontario Liberal Campaign
Operatives including the former deputy chief of sta to
Kathleen Wynne and CEO of the Ontario Liberal Party. How
closely have you been following this story?

A14
On Tuesday, the Ontario Provincial Police laid bribery charges
under the Elections Act against two Ontario Liberal Campaign
Operatives including the former deputy chief of sta to
Kathleen Wynne and CEO of the Ontario Liberal Party. How
closely have you been following this story?

A15
The OPP allege that two Liberal insiders, including the former deputy chief of
sta to Kathleen Wynne, oered a job or appointment to a former Liberal
Candidate in Sudbury in exchange for him stepping aside. Premier Kathleen
Wynne has previously maintained there was no bribe and that she was not at all
involved in these proceedings, no charges have been laid against the Premier.
Thinking about everything you have seen, read or heard do you believe Kathleen
Wynne was involved in these proceedings or not?

A16
The OPP allege that two Liberal insiders, including the former deputy chief of
sta to Kathleen Wynne, oered a job or appointment to a former Liberal
Candidate in Sudbury in exchange for him stepping aside. Premier Kathleen
Wynne has previously maintained there was no bribe and that she was not at all
involved in these proceedings, no charges have been laid against the Premier.
Thinking about everything you have seen, read or heard do you believe Kathleen
Wynne was involved in these proceedings or not?

A17

Patrick Brown, the leader of the PC Party, has

called on the Premier to resign over the bribery
charges. Do you believe Kathleen Wynne
should resign as Premier or not?

A18

Patrick Brown, the leader of the PC Party, has

called on the Premier to resign over the bribery
charges. Do you believe Kathleen Wynne
should resign as Premier or not?

A19

SCRIPT

If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support?
Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne
Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown
NDP led by Andrea Horwath
Green Party led by Mike Schreiner
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for? [UNDECIDED ONLY]
Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne
Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown
NDP led by Andrea Horwath
Green Party led by Mike Schreiner
Undecided
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kathleen Wynne is handling her job as Premier of Ontario?
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrea Horwath is handling her job as NDP Leader?
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Patrick Brown is handling his job as Progressive Conservative Leader?
Strongly Approve
Somewhat Approve
Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove
Not Sure
On Tuesday, the Ontario Provincial Police laid bribery charges under the Elections Act against two Ontario Liberal Campaign Operatives
including the former deputy chief of sta to Kathleen Wynne and CEO of the Ontario Liberal Party. How closely have you been following this
story?
Very Closely
Somewhat Closely
Not Too Closely
Not At All Closely
Not Aware
The OPP allege that two Liberal insiders, including the former deputy chief of sta to Kathleen Wynne oered a job or appointment to a
former Liberal Candidate in Sudbury in exchange for him stepping aside. Premier Kathleen Wynne has previously maintained there was no
bribe and that she was not at all involved in these proceedings, no charges have been laid against the Premier. Thinking about everything you
have seen, read or heard do you believe Kathleen Wynne was involved in these proceedings or not?
Very Involved
Somewhat Involved
Not Too Involved
Not At All Involved
Not Sure
Patrick Brown, the leader of the PC Party, has called on the Premier to resign over the bribery charges. Do you believe Kathleen Wynne should
resign as Premier or not?
Yes
No
Not Sure

CALGARY GREENWAY

WHITBY

Most Accurate Pollster of the Calgary

Greenway by election.

Most Accurate Pollster of the

Whitby by election.

SASKATCHEWAN

MANITOBA

Most Active Pollster of Saskatchewans

general election, top results within MoE.

Most Active Pollster of Manitobas general

election, top results within MoE.

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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