Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Sonu
117,4; 0%
17359,3; 33%
114,2; 0%
Thermal
34179,1; 64%
Geothermal
Hydro
Yenilenebilir K. G (MW)
25000,0
15000,0
10000,0
5000,0
0,0
20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011
53.6 GW
36 %
64 %
Tketim (2011)
229.3 TWh
retim (2011)
Yenilenebilir
Termik
228.4 TWh
26 %
74 %
Other Renew.
Rzgar K. G (MW)
2000,0
1800,0
1600,0
1400,0
1200,0
1000,0
800,0
600,0
400,0
200,0
0,0
20000,0
Wind
Kurulu G
Yenilenebilir
Termik
HES K. G (MW)
18000,0
1.729
17.137
17000,0
15.831
16000,0
1.320
14.553
15000,0
14000,0
792
13.829
13000,0
12000,0
364
11000,0
10000,0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2008
2009
2010
2011
TEA
EA
TETA
Y-YD-HD
Serbest retim
irketleri
Otoprodktrler
(letim,
Piyasa &
Sistem
letimi)
Datm &
Perakende
Sat
irketleri
thalat
hracat
Serbest Olmayan
Tketiciler
Serbest
Tketiciler
thalat
lk Aama
Dengeleme
Mekanizmas
Aylk 3 Zamanl
Uzlatrma
kinci Aama
Nihai Yap
Gn ncesi Piyasas
Gn ncesi
Planlama
Dengeleme G
Piyasas
Dengeleme G
Piyasas
Saatlik Uzlatrma
Saatlik Uzlatrma
Ara 2011 ..
retici
kili Anlamalar
(taraflar arasnda)
Kimle ?
Toptan Satc
Perakende Satc
Serbest Tketici
Toptan
Satc
Perakende
Satc
Havuz
(miktar ve fiyat
teklifleri)
Nerede ?
Gn ncesi Piyasas
Gerek Zamanl
Dengeleme Piyasas
500
400
Fiyat (TL/MWh)
300
200
100
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Saatlik SGOF ler
12000
14000
16000
18000
10
11
Hafta
Hata (%)
1
16,15
2
17,89
3
13,53
4
5,84
Fiyat (TL/MWh)
400
300
200
X: 341
Y: 129
100
100
200
300
X: 341
Y: 31.29
400
Saat
X: 412
Y: 120
500
600
700
800
12
Kasm 2011 iin SGF modeli sonular (girdilere son 3 saat SGF deerleri eklenince)
600
X: 714
Y: 550
Tahmini SGOF
Gercek SGOF
500
Hafta
Hata (%)
1
13,71
2
11,29
3
7,96
4
4,95
Fiyat (TL/MWh)
400
300
X: 714
Y: 207
200
X: 87
Y: 150
100
100
200
300
400
Saat
500
600
700
800
13
problem
Modelleme asndan; son birka saate ait fiyat verisi bir sonraki
saatin fiyat tahminini belirgin ekilde iyiletiriyor
14
Conejo, A.J., Plazas, M.A., Espinola, R., Molina, A.B. Day-ahead Electricity
Price Forecasting Using the Wavelet Transform and ARIMA Models IEEE
Transactions on Power Systems 20 (2), pp. 1035-1042, 2005.
Pino, R., Parreno, J., Gomez, A., Priore, P. Forecasting Next Day Price of
Electricity in the Spanish Electricity Market Using Artificial Neural Networks
Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence 21, pp. 53-62, 2008.
15
Fatih Klmek
E-posta :
fatihkolmek[at]gmail.com
16