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In recent years, airline executives and Wall Street analysts have been much more open in discussing how the airlines
have kept their passenger capacity the number of seats they put into given markets in check. (Wilfredo
Lee/Associated Press)
As the U.S. Justice Department launches an investigation into possible collusion in the airline
industry, experts say the government faces the burden of proving that carriers were deliberately
signalling business decisions to each other. Airlines routinely increase flights based on demand.
A particularly cold winter in the Northeast, for instance, might merit more flights to the
Caribbean. And sometimes, routes are cut because there isn't enough demand. Nothing is
illegal about that. Any company can limit the supply of its own products, whether airline tickets,
sneakers or smartphones. But it would be illegal for airlines to work together to limit flights in
order to drive up fares. The government's investigation is just in its initial phases. Letters went
out this week to American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines.
Together, those four carriers control more than 80 per cent of the domestic seats on planes.
Airlines are quick to say they can't talk about pricing decisions. But in recent years, airline
executives and Wall Street analysts have been much more open in discussing how the airlines
have kept their passenger capacity the number of seats they put into given markets in
check. With that capacity kept from growing too fast, airplanes have been fuller and carriers
have been able to command higher ticket prices. That's led to record profits. But were airlines
simply responding to Wall Street's questions about capacity, or were they illegally agreeing not
to compete too hard as part of an effort to make more money? "Matching supply to demand is
not a novel idea and running a company for profit is not a crime," Raymond James analyst
Savanthi Syth told investors in a note Thursday. Antitrust law draws a line between the entirely
lawful practice of companies' following each other's behavior and companies illegally conspiring.
The Justice Department appears to be hunting for communications and other signals that cross
that boundary, said Andrew Gavil, who teaches antitrust law at Howard University.
airlines to stop them from certain behaviour, such as issuing public statements about their
intentions about capacity. Ever since the U.S. government stopped regulating routes and prices
in 1978, airlines have struggled to avoid nasty and unprofitable fare wars. Historically, when the
price of jet fuel fell, one airline would launch a new route or add extra flights on existing ones.
Fares would be slashed to attract fliers and other airlines would be forced to match the new,
lower fare. Airlines didn't like it, but legally they couldn't coordinate routes or fares.