Morning Call 6/16/2010

Stone Street Advisors

ChiBondKing laszlochi@gmail.com

Morning Focus
A lot of macroeconomic headlines hitting the tape in Europe overnight, along with a lot of data beginning at 8:30AM this morning,
so I will get right to the point: European sovereign spreads relative to Bund widened overnight, Spain 10s +13 to 223.5, Portugal
10s +18 to 305.7, Greek 10s +30 to 695, Irish 10s stable at 292. Bonds catching a bid overnight, however as we approach the US
session that demand has tapered off with some positive econ news out of the UK. Asian indices ended higher across the board,
with the exception of China, which remains closed: Australia: 4559 +1.20pct, Nikkei 225 10067 +1.81pct, Hang Seng 20062
+0.05pct.

Notable Overnight Headlines

Asia
NZ consumer confidence rises in Q2 survey (Reuters)
Japan offers 5.098 trillion Yen in Treasury discount bills (Reuters)
South Korea c.bank sells 2-year MSBs at 3.77 pct (Reuters)
S Korea Official: Risky To Begin Exit Strategy Too Early (DJ)
nd
S.Korea PM warns of inflation pressure in 2 half of year (Reuters)
S Korea Fin Min: Should Still Maintain Expansionary Macro Policies (DJ)
South Korea April Leading Index Rises 0.2% On Month Vs. 0.3% Increase In March - Conference Board
JGBs slip as Nikkei hits 1-mth high; 20-yr sale eyed (Reuters)
Australia's RBA: Injects A$1.76B Vs System Deficit A$1.56B (DJ)
Macquarie Leaves 2012, 2013 Crude Oil Forecasts Unchanged (DJ)
Foreign Ownership In Indonesia Govt Bonds IDR148.13T Mon Vs IDR147.28T Fri (DJ)
Australia Q1 Dwelling Starts Jump 34.7% On Year
China easing rules for private-equity funds (MARKETWATCH)
BOJ: Severity In Employment, Income Situation Easing (DJ)

Europe
ECB: Banks Used EUR77.168 Bln In Overnight Deposit Facility, Total Of Settled Covered Bond Buys Reaches EUR57.467B
(DJ)
EU, IMF, US mull 250 bln euro credit line for Spain-report
Turkey Central Bank Sells TRY1 Billion In Repo
ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo warns banks face funding headache (Reuters)
U.K. May Consumer Confidence Slumps To 65 From 75 In April
UK gets 2.53 cover at 2017 linker mini-tender (Reuters)
Fitch sees euro zone breakup as "remote risk" (Reuters)
Spanish/German bond spread at euro lifetime high (Reuters)
UK Cameron: Must Keep Control Of Inflation (DJ)
U.K. May jobless claims fall 30,900 (MARKETWATCH)
France announces hike in retirement age to 62 (MARKETWATCH)
Sweden says nearing budget balance, borrowing to fall (Reuters)
Austria Q1 Jobless Rate At 4.7%, Austria May CPI Up 1.9% On Year
Euro-zone May annual CPI up unrevised 1.6% (MARKETWATCH)
Eurozone May Core CPI Up 0.8% On Year, Consensus 0.8% Rise
Italy May CPI Incl Tobacco Up 0.1% On Month, 1.4% On Year
EU, IMF eye 250bn credit line for Spain: report (MARKETWATCH)
Spain April Business Start-Ups Up 14.6% On Year

See Important Disclosures on page 4

US Pre Open
Economic News

3-mnth euro Libor hits new 6-month high (Reuters)

07:16ET Mortgage Loan Application Volume Rose 17.7% In Week (MBA)
Chile Central Bank Increases Rate For 1st Time In Two Years (DJ)
Chile lifts key interest rate to 1% (MARKETWATCH)
ABC News Consumer Comfort Index Falls To -45 As Of June 13 From -43 As Of June 6
U.S. House approves small business tax relief (MARKETWATCH)

Equities

BAC, BP - BofA Tells Traders Not To Do Oil Deals With BP More Than 1 Year Out (Reuters)
RIG - Fitch Lowers Transocean Outlook To Negative On Oil Spill Cleanup Worries (DJ)
BP - BP CDS spreads soar, hit all-time high (MARKETWATCH)
WYNN- WSJ: Wynn Reduces Some Staff, But Restores Others to Full Time (DJ)
APOL, CECO: US to go after deceptive colleges, delays job rule (Reuters)

Interesting Morning Reading

Eli Radke on Simple Trading Advice: http://mytradingnet.com/blog/2010/06/15/want-simple-trading-advice-do-not-use/

Joe Weisenthal on BP (ed. Note: Insomnia Edition): http://www.businessinsider.com/meanwhile-this-is-happening-right-
now-2010-6
John Carney, CNBC on Banking Reform: http://www.cnbc.com/id/37708061
Macro Man: An Englishmans Home Is His Retirement Policy: http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2010/06/englishmans-
home-is-his-
retirement.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MacroMan+%28Macro+Man
%29
David Blanchflower (Bloomberg) Unemployment Hurts More Than Inflation:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aHU3sPFwC56c

Notable Bond Market/Economic Events

Bond Auctions (1PM ET)
o None
Upcoming Bond Auctions (This Week)
o None. See you next week.
Economic Releases For Today
o 8:30AM ET
Building Permits, cons. 630k
PPI, cons. -0.5pct
Core PPI, cons. +0.1pct
Housing Starts, cons. 650k
o 9:15AM ET
Capacity Utilization, cons. 74.6pct
Industrial Production, cons. 0.9pct
o 10:30AM ET
Crude Inventories, cons. -1.5m
o 5:45PM ET Bernanke Speaks, BOE Mervyn King Speaks

See Important Disclosures on page 4

Market Summary 7AM

Futures Currencies Fixed Income

Symbol Last Chg Symbol Last Chg Symbol Last Symbol Last
DOW 10298 -34 EURUSD 1.228 -0.0052 2s5s 133.00 US2Y .74
SP500 1104.5 -4.75 GBPUSD 1.4802 -0.0008 2s10s 255.00 US5Y 2.07
NSDQ 1886.5 -6.75 EURJPY 112.33 -0.43 2s30s 346.00 US7Y 2.74
ZB 123'05 +0'14 USDCAD 1.0285 0.0026 5s10s 122.00 US10Y 3.29
ZN 120'010 +0'045 USDJPY 91.52 0.04 5s30s 213.00 US30Y 4.20
ZF 116'295 +0'027 NZDUSD 0.6972 0.0009 10s30s 91.00 UK5Y 2.22
ZT 109'035 +0'015 UK10Y 3.51
CLN0 76.47 -0.47 UK30Y 4.29

See Important Disclosures on page 4

 Morning Call 6/16/2010
Stone Street Advisors
ChiBondKing laszlochi@gmail.com

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