Vol. 16, No.

18

November 14, 2016

Reflections on the U.S. Presidential Election

and its Implications for American Jewry and the State of Israel

Steven Windmueller, Ph.D.

The victory of Donald Trump has fundamentally transformed the place of Americas
Jewish community within the political arena. The surprise victory represents an
election tsunami for Jews and other key Democratic constituencies.

A key to this years results has to do with a significant number of Republican

victories across the nation in state and local campaigns that will have a profound
long-term impact on elections.

New Americans including Latinos, Asian-Americans, and other constituencies

through their participation will be redefining the electoral voter rolls within this
nation. The Jewish community can forge a bridge of understanding and engagement
between these new constituencies and the American mainstream. This is a role the

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community relations organizations have undertaken for decades in the United
States.

The stark reality is that in this campaign Jews voted overwhelmingly for Hillary
Clinton. A New York Times exit poll suggested that 71 percent of American Jews
supported the Secretary of State, while some 24 percent of Jewish voters endorsed
Donald Trump.

While many American Jews are indeed distraught over this political outcome, they
too will embrace the new administration, seeking to find ways to work with
President-elect Trump in moving this nation forward. The American story goes on!

America has made its presidential choice. The long, divisive campaign has finally ended.
What are some of the challenges that the Jewish community and the pro-Israel
community must begin to address in the aftermath of this election? The victory of
Donald Trump has fundamentally transformed the place of Americas Jewish community
within the political arena. Traditionally a key Democratic constituency, a portion of the
Jewish political base has shifted over time to the political right. Yet, the surprise victory
of Donald Trump represents an election tsunami for Jews and other key Democratic
constituencies.
Similar to the rise of Andrew Jackson in 1828, Trump could be defined by the same type
of labels and images depicted in that election campaign. The Jackson-Adams campaign
was described by historians of the period as a good deal of mud was slung on both
sides, much of it aimed at Jackson's marriage, his violent escapades, and the incidents of
ferocious discipline and of disrespect for civilian authority that dotted his military career.
(Jackson) was painted as a grasping and bloodthirsty character, a budding tyrant in the
model of Caesar or Napoleon, whose election would spell the death of the republic.
Trump won this election without securing the largest number of votes while handily
winning the Electoral College. Similarly, the Republican candidate will come into the
White House receiving less than 50 percent of the popular vote, making him one of 12
Presidents to receive a plurality of the vote but not a majority (the last being George W.
Bush in 2000). A key to this years results has to do with a significant number of
Republican victories across the nation in state and local campaigns that will have a
profound long-term impact on elections.
Americas Changing Demographics: As we digest the outcome of this election, the
extraordinary demographic transformation of the American electorate represents one
of the most significant realities of this campaign. Indeed, the social fabric of the society
will be tested, as many groups feel particularly vulnerable in light of a Trump victory.
White working class voters in various parts of the society have transformed the
character of America. A fundamentally different composition of voters determined the
outcome of this campaign as Presidentelect Trump was able to galvanize the working
class constituency and rural voters into a new base of support for his surprising election

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victory. Traditional Democratic voters in the rust belt regions of this nation crossed
party lines to embrace the new Presidents message.
Beyond Mr. Trumps victory, new Americans including Latinos, Asian-Americans, and
other constituencies through their participation will be redefining the electoral voter
rolls within this nation. By 2040, America will cease to be a predominantly Caucasian
society; rather, it will reflect the multi-dimensional character of the worlds populations.
The Jewish community is situated in a unique but critical place to forge a bridge of
understanding and engagement between these new constituencies and the American
mainstream. This is a role the community relations organizations have undertaken for
decades in the United States.
Confronting New Threats to the Jewish Community: In the aftermath of this election,
the Jewish community faces a challenging agenda. The overwhelming reality for
American Jewry in the days following this political campaign will involve an appreciation
for the fractured state of this countrys electorate. The deep political divide has
unmasked a new round of anti-Semitism, and it has demonstrated the presence of hate
directed toward other minority communities as well. Just as Jewish organizations have
been encountering an assault on Israel driven by the BDS movement on the political
Left, the community must now contend with the rise of the Alt-Right and its
conspiratorial manifestations of Jewish influence and political control. With a Trump
victory, these extremists voices will no doubt increase their messages of religious and
ethnic hate. And indeed, social forces on the political Left rejecting the electoral
outcome have already begun to manifest their frustration with the Trump victory.
As there are political challenges directed against the Jewish community, Jewish public
policy organizations will need to address the state of inter-group relations within the
United States, seeking ways to breakdown the walls of suspicion and bigotry that
contribute to an erosion of democracy and inclusion.

Assessing Jewish Political Power

There were multiple centers of Jewish political influence represented in this election.
Jewish Republicans now have an opportunity to exercise their clout in advancing the
pro-Israel agenda, serving as a critical bridge between the new administration and the
American Jewish community.
The Trump Administration may be prepared to discard the highly controversial Iranian
Nuclear Agreement. Similarly, the incoming regime may have fewer concerns about
Israeli settlement activities and other issues that may resonate with the Netanyahu
Government.

Revisiting the Jewish Vote

The stark reality is that in this campaign Jews voted overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton. A
New York Times exit poll suggested that 71 percent of American Jews supported the
Secretary of State, while some 24 percent of Jewish voters endorsed Donald Trump. A
second study, released by J Street, reflects similar numbers in the State of Florida
among Jewish voters. Not surprisingly, we note that an uncertain number of Jews
decided either not to vote in this campaign or ultimately embraced third party
candidates, feeling unprepared to commit to either of the major nominees, as a result of
both candidates very high disapproval ratings.
Interestingly, Jewish financial support for Donald Trump among Republican donors was
significantly below the levels of commitment to John McCain (2008) and Mitt Romney
(2012), in part reflective of a heightened degree of uncertainty on the part of the
Republican Jewish establishment over Trump as a viable candidate.

Unpacking the Great Social Disconnect

Many of the issues that propelled Trump voters were reflective of constituencies that
are geographically and culturally detached from the Jewish community. Indeed, the
social, political, and economic divisions that separate rural and working class voters
from urban, college-educated Americans represent the challenge to the future of the
American democracy. The Jewish community could be seen by these angry and
disappointed voters as a target of their frustration. If so, it will be essential for Jewish
activists, in coalition with others, to respond to the challenges raised by this sector of
the electorate.
The political credibility of our leaders will likewise be tested. Should government fail to
address the pain and disconnect of a significant sector of our citizens, this nation could
experience a serious political upheaval, creating even a deeper divide between these
very different constituencies.

Assessing American Political Behavior

The voting record of Americans may be the real issue of 2016; this new reality would
ultimately foster a Trump victory. ABC News reported that fewer Democrats (some 4
million) voted in this election. More generically, the percentage of voter participation
has been declining for decades. More than a third of eligible voters are not exercising
their political franchise. Civics education ought to be on the agenda of American Jewish
organizations as a way to encourage and promote an educated, politically engaged, and
knowledgeable public about the critical issues associated with American democracy.

Building a New American Jewish Agenda

Many of Americas Jews will be specifically focused on what lays ahead in connection
with critical social policy concerns that will include immigration, the environment,
health care services, and reproductive rights. How the Trump administration approaches
these various Constitutional and public policy concerns central to mainstream Jewish
interests will most certainly occupy Jewish attention as Republicans reclaim the White
House. As the results of this election set in, some American Jews fear that a Trump
Administration may undermine democratic norms while pushing back against minority
political interests and rights.
The Supreme Court has been a particularly sacred cause of the Jewish community.
Undoubtedly, the new president will have occasion to make judicial selections to the
Court that can and most likely will alter the balance of power, potentially leading to the
revisiting of Roe v. Wade (abortion rights), church-state and religious liberty cases,
second amendment rulings, and civil rights issues, among other concerns.

Changing the Political Culture

The voting record of Americans may be the real issue in 2016; the absence of key voting
blocs specifically permitted a Trump victory. ABC News reported that fewer Democrats
(some 4 million) voted in this election from 2012. Since 2000, the Democrats have lost a
total of 9 million voters, which suggests a major shift in political affiliation. More
generic, the percentage of voter participation, in general, has been declining for
decades and was again affirmed in the 2016 presidential campaign.
The Jewish community has held to the principle that an informed and engaged
electorate is essential for this democracy to flourish. People who are invested in the
system tend to be more open-minded, embracing diversity, and accepting the pluralistic
character of this nation. If responsible and caring citizens leave the public square,
whether out of disgust or fear, a dangerous vacuum is likely to occur where extremist
voices will dominate the political culture of this society, filling the void left by
mainstream activists. Yet, many Americans may be dissatisfied with the current political
climate in the country, as reflected by the significantly large number of eligible voters
who failed to exercise the franchise of the ballot. Voter education remains an on-going
challenge as part of the effort to encourage citizens to believe in the value of democracy
and political participation. The reintroduction of civics into our classrooms and in other
arenas of American society will be an essential first step in helping our young as well as
this countrys new citizens to better understand the unique features of the workings of
American democracy.

Sharing Closing Thoughts

Note the extraordinary notion that literally hours after this unexpected victory, the loser
(Hillary Clinton) graciously conceded, and the sitting American President had already
extended to Mr. Trump an invitation to meet with him as part of the transfer of power.
American democracy with all of its complexities continues to serve this nation well.
While many American Jews are indeed distraught over this political outcome, they too
will embrace the new administration, seeking to find ways to work with President-elect
Trump in moving this nation forward.
The American story goes on!
* * *
Dr. Steven Windmueller is the Rabbi Alfred Gottschalk Emeritus Professor of Jewish
Communal Studies at the Jack H. Skirball Campus of Hebrew Union College-Jewish
Institute of Religion, Los Angeles. His writings can be found on his website:
www.thewindreport.com. Professor Windmueller is a Fellow at the Jerusalem Center for
Public Affairs.

This Jerusalem Issue Brief is available online at:

http://www.jcpa.org
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