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Articles:BeWiseonKosovo

December 13, 2007

Be Wise on Kosovo
By Walid Phares

OverthepastfewmonthsanumberofWesternleaders,includingseniorUnitedStatesfigures,havelenttheirsupporttoseparating
theprovinceofKosovofromtheRepublicofSerbia,basedonthefactthatamajorityoftheinhabitantsintheprovince,ethnic
Albanians,wishesthistobedone.
TheU.SSecretaryofStateandEuropeantopdiplomatshavebeenworkingontheassumptionthattheultimateoutcomeofthe
crisisshouldbetoseeanothernewRepublicemergingintheBalkansfromtherubbleofformerYugoslavia.Theirparticipationin
theUNsponsorednegotiations,alongwithSerbia,Kosovo,AlbaniaandRussia,hasbeenheadingtowardtheendpointofbreaking
onenationstate'sterritoryintotwostates,ignoringthehistoricalcontext,consequences,andimportantprinciples,withfarreaching
unpleasantconsequenceswhentheseprinciplesserveasprecedentselsewhere.
Underlyingallofthisisanotsohiddenagenda:ananticipatedsocalleddiplomaticdividendforpleasingtheMuslimworld.A
prominentUSlegislatordeclaredoverthesummerthatgrantingKosovoitsindependencewouldpleasetheMuslimworldand
wouldshowthatAmericaisnotantiIslamic.TheKosovoaffairhasthisassumedextraimportanceinthisprecariouspost9/11era,
asatoken.Butitriskskindlingachainreactionofexplosivecrisesaroundtheworld.
AsapotentialunilateraldeclarationofseparationbythelocalgovernmentofKosovoprovincemaytakeplace,itisimperativethat
WashingtonandBrusselsbewiseonKosovo,andcarefullythinkthroughtheimplications.
BasicPrinciples
Therightofselfdeterminationforpeoplesconsideringthemselvesasdistinctnationalgroupsisandalwaysshouldberecognized.
Nohigherrightcanbesubstitutedforthewilloftheethnicornationalcommunitywishingtofulfillitsdestiny.Worldhistoryhas
taughtusendlesslessonsabouttheconsequencesofobstructingthedesireofpeoplesforfreeexpressionandchoosingtheirwayof
life.Howevertwonecessaryconditionsmustbefulfilledtoguaranteethisinalienableright:
1)nottocauseinjusticetoothersand
2)nottoabusethisrightforthesakeoftotalitarianideologies.
Twostories
TheEthnicAlbanianseparatistsclaimthatasa"distinct"nationalcommunity,theyformanumericmajorityinoneofSerbia's
provinces,andthustheyhavetherighttoseparateandcreateanewstate.
TheSerbianGovernmentrespondsthatthisprovinceisageographicalentitythatispartofthenationalterritoryoftheSerbian
people.ItarguesthattheethnicAlbanianshavemigratedintotheterritoryandconcentratedtheirsettlementsothatinsidethe
provincetheynowformamajority.
Sofarthisisaclassicalcaseofethnicconflictoverland,althoughitpresentsitsownspecialcharacteristics.Unlikemanyregimes
intheMiddleEastwhichdenytheculturaldifferenceoftheirminorities,Serbiadoesn'targuewiththefactthatKosovo'sAlbanians
aredistinctfromtheSerbianculturalidentity.Thecrisisisratherabouttherightofthisminority(withinSerbiaasawhole)to
separateonthegroundthatinoneprovinceofthatstate(Kosovo),itconstituteamajority.Hereistheheartofthematter,but
unfortunatelythisclassicalethnocrisiswastransformedintoaconflictaffectingjusticetoothersandhasbeenmanipulatedby
internationalradicalideologies.
Unequaltreatment
ThefirststrikinginjusticeintreatmentisclearlyseeninsidewhatwasformerlytheYugoslavFederation.Thebloodywarsofthe
1990sendedwithgeopoliticalrealitiesthataffectthequestionofKosovotoday.WhiletheindependenceofSloveniafromthe
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YugoslavFederation,followingthebriefTenDayWar,wentsomewhatsmoothlyforlackofa"minorityquestion,"theseparation
ofCroatiaandBosniacausedbloodywars,massacresandethniccleansing.
Theinternationalcommunity,ledbytheUSandWesternEurope,immediatelyrecognizedtherightofseparationforthetwo
breakawayRepublics,butatthesametimeopposedthesamerightforselfdeterminationfortheSerbiannationalminoritieswithin
thesetwonewlyrecognizedcountries.Thefollowingquestionhasneverbeenanswered:
WhycanCroatsandMuslimsseparatefromYugoslaviawhileSerbscannotimplementthatsamerighttowardCroatiaandBosnia?
Eachsidewillsaytheircauseismorelegitimatethantheothersbutthisdoesn'tsupplyanysolutions.
TheendresultwasthatwiththehelpoftheWestin1995,bothRepublicsseparatedandformednewstatesandwereacceptedinthe
UnitedNations.TheSerbsinsideBosnia,formingabout31percentofthecountry,weredeniedastateoftheirown.
In1999,ethnicAlbanians,whoare14percentofSerbia(butamajorityinKosovoProvince),calledforformingastateoftheir
own.StrangelytheUnitedStatesandWesternEuroperushedtoacceptstatehoodforagroup(Albanians)accountingfor14%ofa
country(Serbia)butrejectedthesametreatmentforanothergroup(Serbs)whichaccountsfor31%ofanothercountry(Muslim
Bosnia).
TheethnicAlbaniansareindeedanumericmajorityintheprovincetheyclaim,butsoaretheSerbsintheProvince/Republic
they'veclaimedinBosnia.Henceaccordingtothefundamentalprincipleofequaltreatment,iftheAlbaniansofKosovoaretobe
grantedselfdetermination,theSerbsofBosniashouldbegrantedthesameright.Suchanequationwouldbefairandwouldopena
pathforglobalreconciliationintheBalkans.
EqualProtectionofMinorities
InadditiontoequaltreatmentforSerbsandnonSerbs,minoritiesonbothsidesshouldbeprotectedunderinternationallaw.The
nonSerbsinthe"RepublikaSerpska"shouldbegrantedtheirfundamentalrightsandthesameprincipleshouldbeappliedtothe
SerbsinsideKosovo.Ifethnicenclavesexistandrefusetoseparatefromtheirethnickin,theyshouldbegiventheoptionof
formingadministrativeareaslinkedtotheoriginalnationstateoftheirchoice.Forifselfdeterminationistobeappliedtothe
separatingentity,thesameprinciplemustbeappliedtosmallerenclaveswhowishtoseparatefromtheseparatingprovinces.
InthecaseofKosovo,ifaglobalBalkansagreementisreached(includingindependencefortheRepublikaSerpska)ethnic
AlbaniansshouldacceptthattheethnicSerbianpopulationsalsocansecedefromthemandchoosetheirdestiny.Furthermoreall
historicplaceswithgreatvaluetoallpartiesmustbeprotectedbyinternationallawandtheUN.
AdangerousJihadilikeagenda
Withsuchawebofmutualrecognitionandguaranteestoallparties,resolvingtheconflictshouldbepossible.Sowhyisitthat
Washington'sandBrussels'policiesareappliedunfairlyinthisparticularcrisis?WhyisitthattheUSseemstosideautomatically
againstoneparticulargroupregardlessoftheirclaims?InBosniatheSerbsweredeniedseparationfromtheBosnianMuslimsand
inKosovotheSerbsarebeingforcedtoacceptseparationoftheAlbanianMuslims.
TheSerbshaveaspecialproblem:theyaredealingwith"Islamicclaims",ortechnically"claimsofMuslims".Statementsmadeby
USlegislatorsarguingthathelpingintheformationofaMuslimstateinEuropewouldsendapositivemessagetotheMuslim
worldandserveAmerica'simageintheWaronTerrormakethispointSuchassertions,inadditionofbeinglegallyunfounded,are
alsodangerous.
Thereisnobasisinmoderninternationallawforformingstatestosatisfyareligiousblocofstates.Thisstrangelogic,insteadof
weakeningtheJihadistviewoftheworld,wouldfurtherstrengthenalQaedaanditsilk.TheUnitedStatesisnottheByzantine
Empire,noristheOrganizationoftheIslamicConferenceaCaliphate,andtheyshouldnotbehaveasiftheywere.
TheinternationalSalafistswanttheworldtorespondtotheologicallymotivatedworldpowerdynamicsinsteadofthepresentsetof
internationalconventions.Washingtonhasnorighttotradefavorswithoilpowersonthebasisofsatisfyingideologicalambitions
hereandthere.
IftheethnicAlbanianshavetherightofselfdeterminationinKosovo,itshouldbegrantedfullyunderinternationallaw,notasa
resultofPRattemptstomollifyavirtualCaliphate.Thesepre9/11attitudescanbeverydangerous.Linkingpartitionsandbreakups
ofcountriestoAmericansuccessinrallyingMuslimdiplomaticsupportcouldbringgreatharmelsewherearoundtheworld.
WilltheUSalsopleasetheWahhabisbyforcingIndiatorelinquishKashmir,thePhilippinestoletgoofMindanao,Russiatocut
Chechnyaloose,CyprustoabandonitsTurkishnorthandlastbutnotleast,IsraeltosliceouthalfoftheGalileetoitsownMuslim
minority?
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PlayingthisJihadiinspiredcardwouldultimatelystrengthenalQaeda'slexiconof"Islamiccauses"attheexpenseofpotential
legitimatecausesforethnicminorities,includingthosewhohappentobeofMuslimbackground.Westerngamingofthesecrises
withanIslamicdimension,includingKosovo,canonlybackfireandcauseevenmoretension.
IfWashingtoninitiatesaworldreligiousparameterontheissueofKosovo,itwillopenaPandora'sBoxworldwide.Otherenclaves
forminginEuropewoulddemandsecessionwithinexistingliberaldemocraciesbasedontheirmajoritystatusinmanysuburbsof
bigcities,suchasthereentlyriottornParisianbanlieues.WilltheUSpressafutureFrench(orGerman,DutchorBritish)headsof
statetoconcedesecessionsontheirownsoiltopleaseRiyadh,KhartoumoreventuallyTehran?
ThislogicappliedinKosovowillserveasaprecedenttobeappliedtoforceShariaenclaveseverywhereelseintheWestand
beyond.Theleadersofanyethnicminority,includingtheKosovarsthemselves,shouldnotallowtheircausetobeseizedbythe
WahabisorcateredtobyWesternpoliticiansseekingaccommodationwiththem.Itistoodangerousforeveryone.
Kosovo:abenchmarkforanewera
Onamuchgreaterscale,theKosovoseparatistcrisisopensthefloodgatesforrethinkingthewholeinternationalprocessofgranting
fullindependencetominoritiesandethnonationalgroupsseekingbreakups.Thisisnotonlyoneoftheoldestproblemsin
internationalpolitics,itisalsothemostabusedanddangeroustopeaceandprogress.
Theprincipleshouldalwaysremainarelentlesssupportforselfdetermination,avaluehonoredbyWoodrowWilson,andlater
recognizedbytheUNCharter'sChapterOne,secondparagraph.Thereshouldnotbeareturntothetimesofoppressionand
obstructioninthisearlystageofthe21stcentury.
Butselectivenessamongfavoredanddisfavoredgroupswouldbedamagingandhurtfultotheprinciple.Indeed,whywould
KosovoseparationbeacceptedandnottheRepublikaSerpska?InadditiontothecasesImentionedearlier,thinkalsoofsouthern
Sudan,Darfur,Algeria'sBerbers,Biafra,theSahara,southernThailand,China'sUighur,theMalukuandCelebesislandsin
Indonesia,SriLanka'sTamils,AhwazArabsinIran,theKurdsofTurkey,ChechnyaandDagestan,andaplethoraofotherpotential
crisis.ButalsothinkofNorthernIreland,Corsica,theBasques,theBelgianlinguisticconflict,theScotsinWesternEurope.
OntheEasternsideofthecontinentnocountryisspared:GermansinPoland,PolesinUkraineandRussia,RussiansintheBaltic
countries,Moldova,Rumania'sHungarians,Bulgaria'sTurksandmanyotherethniclabyrinths.EvenintheAmericas,thinkof
Quebec,ChiapasandthemultipleideologicalclaimsovertheSouthwesternpartsoftheUS.
Inshort,Kosovoisnotthefirst,norwoulditbethelastseparatistphenomenontobeaddressed.Butitcertainlycouldbecomethe
beginningofanewera,whererightswouldbegrantedequallyamongseekersofselfdeterminationifaddressedfairly,equallyand
smartly.
Avoidafauxpas
TheUnitedStatesandWesternEuropemustavoidafauxpasinKosovo,thatisunevenlyforcingSerbiatoacceptaterritorialloss
withoutreshapingtheentirepeaceprocessintheformerYugoslaviainawaytoaddresstheethnicrightsofallgroupsandina
mannertocontaintheriseoffutureJihadisminseveralzonesbackedbyWesternpolicies.Tobesuccessful,thefollowingarefew
guidelines:
1)EquateselfdeterminationfortheEthnicAlbaniansinKosovowithselfdeterminationfortheSerbsinBosnia.Grantequal
rightstobothcommunities,fromthefarthestautonomypossibletopotentialindependence,onthebasisofnegotiationsandmutual
referenda.IfKosovo'sAlbanianswillreachstatehoodsoshouldBosnia'sSerbs.
2)InsureinternationallyprotectedrightstononAlbanianminoritiesinKosovo,includingareciprocalrightofself
determination.
3)OrganizeaconferencefortheBalkansincludingtheUS,Europe,RussiaandthethreerepublicsofCroatia,BosniaandSerbia,
withrepresentationfromallethnicminoritieslockedintheregion'scrisis.
4)ReachaUSRussianunderstandingontheBalkansasanumbrellatosecurethenewregionalagreements.
5)SignatreatybetweenthemembersofthenewBalkanconference,Bosnia,Serbia,Croatiaandthenewlyautonomous
territories,foranallianceagainsttheJihaditerroristsanddenyaccesstothesecountriestoSalafiandKhomeinistnetworksand
funding.
ThecrisisofKosovoisacrossroadswithtwodirections.EithertheWesternalliancewillacquiescetowrongpoliciesandendup
beingresponsibleforfutureethnicviolenceandthespreadofJihadiforcesintheregionoranewdemocracyalliancewould
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becomeenlightenedenoughtofindtheappropriatesolutionstoallethniccrisisintheformerYugoslaviaontheonehandandstop
theadvancingJihaditentaclesfromreachingthebellyofsouthernEurope.
DrWalidPharesisaSeniorFellowattheFoundationfortheDefenseofDemocraciesandavisitingscholarattheEuropean
FoundationforDemocracy.HeistheauthorofTheWarofIdeas:JihadismagainstDemocracies.
Sponsored by Revcontent

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