Mothballed Philippine Nuclear Power

Plant Some Postmortem

Perspectives
Carlo A. Arcilla1 and Alfredo Mahar F. Lagmay1
1National

Institute of Geological Sciences, University of the Philippines,

Quezon City Philippines

Thanks to

Dr. Mahar Lagmay, NIGS (Cambridge)

Dr. Mario Aurelio, MGB (France)
Dr. Kelvin Rodolfo, University of Illinois (U. Southern Cal)
Dr. Ray Punongbayan, PHIVOLCS (retired)(Colorado)
Dr. Rene Solidum, PHIVOLCS (Scripps, San Diego)
Dr. Jesse Daligdig, PHIVOLCS (Japan)
Dr. Bart Bautista, PHIVOLCS (Japan)
Dr. Norman Tungol, PHIVOLCS (Australia)
Dr. Rolly Rimando, PHIVOLCS (State Univ. New York)
Dr. Ray Quebral, MGB (France)
Dr. Emmanuel Ramos, Manila Observatory (Indiana Univ.)
Dr. Glenda Besana (Kyoto, Japan)

 The word nuclear evokes something

catastrophic, dangerous, to be feared and kept
away as much as possible from my
backyard.

Potential Hyperalkaline Fluids-Bentonite

Interaction Analogues in the Philippines
Carlo A. Arcilla1, Cherisse Ferrer1 Russell Alexander2 and
Ian McKinley3
1 National Institute of Geological Sciences, College of
Science, University of the Philippines;
2 Bedrock Geosciences,Switzerland
3 McKinley Consulting, Switzerland

Multiple barrier system HLW / SF

Spent Fuel Canister

Vitrified HLW Canister

Cemented Disposal tunnels with
Bentonite Clay Backfill

Deep
Geologica
Repository

Bataan Nuclear Power Plant

Built at cost of US$ 2.3 billion (overpriced!
Price of 2 nuclear plants!
Corruption by Marcos government AND
Westinghouse Corporation
Completed but closed nearly 20 years ago,
mainly due to "safety reasons"--not 1 watt
produced
Situated close to a dormant volcano and a
fault

 Despite expenditure, plant has never

produced single watt of electricity after
being declared unsafe and inoperable by a
team of international inspectors after
Marcos' downfall 1986. The ill-conceived
plant stands just 100 kilometres from
sprawling capital Manila, near several
earthquake fault lines and at a foot of
dormant volcano.

Closure of nuclear facility was

very painful economically
single largest debt item of the Philippines
A poor country still paying $180,000 per
day just on interest payments
resulted in crippling power failures in the
1990s with untold economic losses
crippling power failures opened floodgates
to maze of independent power suppliers
which has made power very expensive

Crisis of high electric rates

Up to 30% increase in one year
One of the highest in Asia

modified from Tapang, 2004

Crisis of ballooning debt

National government debt (foreign and domestic) stock,
1981-2003 (% of GDP)

P 3.4 trillion
or equivalent to

77.4% of GDP
in 2003

90

NG debt stock

80

67.1

70

55.7

50
40
30

49.7 51.3 49.7

52.8

61.1
53.2

55.7 56.1

59.6

64.6 64.9

70.0

39.4
30.4
18.9

32.9

22.7 22.9

20

1972-80 ave.: only 15.0 %

10

Year

Tapang, 2004

2005p

2004p

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

0
1981

% of GDP

60

53.3

56.4

77.4

Revisit geologic reasons for

closure
Is there really a fault on the nuclear facility?
How much risk building close to a dormant
volcano?

Philippine Geologic Setting

Many active faults
20 active volcanoes, 200 dormant
20000 useless politicians

TECTONIC SETTING OF THE

PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO

EARTHQUAKE
GENERATORS
OF THE
PHILIPPINE
ARCHIPELAGO

..

The issue at fault

No direct evidence of fault running across
facility
Latest satellite data suggest also no large
structures directly located at nuclear plant
Built to resist 0.4 g, plant survived easily
1990 M7.8 earthquake with epicenter <100
km from facility

Pilapils (rice paddy dikes) in Imugan, Nueva Vizcaya displaced left-laterally

by the ground rupture of the 1990 Northern Luzon Earthquake.

MANILA
BAY

Pinatubo

Natib
Napot Pt.

Mariveles

The volcanic risk

Plant built on the flanks of dormant Mt.
Natib, cousin of Mt. Pinatubo
Underlying rocks are old lahars and
pyroclastic flows from Mt. Natib
Mt. Pinatubo, after 500 years of silence,
gave the world's strongest eruption close to
populated areas in 1991
NOTHING happened to the plant

Natib Volcano
Napot Point, where nuclear facility is
located, is built on old lahars and
pyroclastic flows of Natib volcano
Natib volcano, considered inactive, is
older than Pinatubo, and much older
than Laguna de Bay and currently
active Taal, which are much closer to
Metro manila than are Natib to the
closest population center

Volcanic Risk? Look at Clark

AFB and Metro Manila
Clark Air Force Base was 2nd largest
American airbase anywhere (probably a
nuclear-weapon bearing area)
Located <18 km from Mt. Pinatubo
Pinatubo eruption predicted and minimal
loss of lives--most damage was from
collapsed roofs due to ash weight
Predicted to be crippled from eruption,
Clark AFB economic zone is doing well

Pinatubo and Clark community

> 1 million people within 30 km radius
Many facilities under "volcanic threat"
People aware of the risk and are living with
it
One of the fastest growing economic zones
in the Philippines (even without American
airbase)

Photo by E Wolfe, USGS

Source: Jet Propulsion Lab

Photo by Marko Riikonen

Pinatubo eruption
not far from nuclear
plant site
Strongest eruption in
past century closest
to populated areas
Nuclear plant was not
harmed in any way

Photo by Marko Riikonen

Metro Manila and volcanoes

>10 million people within 50 km radius of a
Laguna de Bay volcanoes, which is
YOUNGER than Mt. Natib, and much more
explosive in the past
Located < 80 km Taal volcano, which is
active, and most deadly Philippine volcano
Most of city is built on pyroclastic flows
from Laguna de Bay volcanoes

Makiling & Domes

100 km
slab trace

Taal
Ronnie Torres,
PHIVOLCS

Rifting within
Macolod Corridor
(Bart Bautista,
PHIVOLCS)

5. Volcanic Hazard Evaluation

3
Types of volcanic phenomena considered in Plant Design:

Ballistic projectiles
Fallout of pyroclastic materials
Air shocks and lightning
Lahars and floods
Volcanic gases
Volcanic earthquakes
Tsunamis
Geothermal anomalies
Groundwater anomalies

from Godoy and Guerpinar, 2001

VOLCANIC HAZARD - A
SUMMARY

As an external natural event,

VOLCANISM - and its associated
phenomena - could affect the safety of
nuclear facilities.
The requirement of the IAEA-NUSSCODE on SAFETY: SITING to
evaluate the volcanic hazard is a real
necessity in a number of Member States.
from Godoy and Guerpinar, 2001

Manila and Clark would not have

passed risk criteria imposed by
earthquake and volcanic factors!
If we follow the (defective) reasoning for
closing the Bataan Nuclear plant, then the
cities of Manila and Angeles (Clark) should
have never been built in the first place

 PHILIPPINE CAMPAIGNERS SEEK

INFORMATION
Activists in the Philippines are the midst of a campaign to
prevent operation of the Bataan nuclear power plant. But to
win, they need all the technical/financial arguments they
can get to convince the soon-to-be-elected legislators who
will make the final decision. One of the biggest issues in
the debate is nuclear plant safety. The Bataan plant is very
similar to the Krsko nuclear plant in Yugoslavia, Kori-I in
South Korea, and Angra-1 in Brazil. Campaigners would
appreciate some data on the current status of these plants.

 The perceived problems at the Bataan power plant

are its greatest liability. These problems include
seismic instability, claims of faulty workmanship
and the lack of experience of the operators. Many
geological and seismic inspections have been
carried out on the site, with the result being that no
significant risk is apparent. To convince
Philippine Society of the seismic safety of the
plant, an educational programme would need to be
carried out that emphasised the sites stability, and
the high seismic safety factor of the plant (0.4g).
Clark et al., 1995

Concluding Statements
Bataan Nuclear Power Plant was closed
because of political reasons. To attribute the
closure due to geologic/scientific safety
reasons is false and disingenuous
Filipino people have suffered tremendously
from the economic losses, and continue to
suffer from very high electricity costs
Dire need for scientific approach to
government decisions

Waste Management A Project Chart

START
Management
directives
YES
Work on program
activities
Submit for opinion
of regulators

Submit program plan

Approved
with $?

Accept
Reviewers
opinion?

Revise
program plan
NO
Develop program
for refinement of
unnecessary detail
Of course we do
FINISH

General Training On Methodologies For Geological Disposal in North America

IAEA Network of Centers of Excellence

36

 The Day After, a dramatization of the

effects of a hypothetical nuclear attack on
the United States was one of the biggest
media events of the 1980s. Programmed by
ABC on Sunday, 20 November 1983, The
Day After was watched by an estimated half
the adult population, the largest audience
for a made-for-TV movie to that time.
Source: Bauer, 2000