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Hydraulics Division, Civil Engineering Department, Engineering Faculty, Erciyes University, Kayseri, Turkey
b
Geotechnology Division, Civil Engineering Department, Engineering Faculty, Erciyes University, Turkey
Received 23 June 2004; accepted 26 May 2005
This paper investigates the use of three back-propagation training algorithms, Levenberg-Marquardt, conjugate gradient
and resilient back-propagation, for the two case studies, stream-flow forecasting and determination of lateral stress in
cohesionless soils. Several neural network (NN) algorithms have been reported in the literature. They include various
representations and architectures and therefore are suitable for different applications. In the present study, three NN
algorithms are compared according to their convergence velocities in training and performances in testing. Based on the
study and test results, although the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm has been found being faster and having better
performance than the other algorithms in training, the resilient back-propagation algorithm has the best accuracy in testing
period.
IPC Code: G06N3/02
1 P
EP
P P=1
(1)
1N
2
EP = (oi ti )
2 i=1
(2)
H = JT J
(3)
(4)
xk +1 = xk J T J + I J T e
435
(5)
p0 = g 0
(6)
xk +1 = xk + k g k
(7)
436
pk = g k + k pk 1
(8)
Case Study I: Stream-flow Forecasting
Description of data
xmean
sx
cv
(m3/s) (m3/s) (Sx/xmean)
Training
Test
Entire
132
47
89
159
55
125
1.20
1.17
1.40
csx
(m3/s)
xmin
(m3/s)
xmax
(m3/s)
2.65
4.06
3.53
21.6
9.8
9.8
1181
495
1181
being far from the ACF of the entire data after six
days of lag.
Application and results
xi x min
+b
x max x mean
(10)
437
1 N Yiobserved Yipredicted
100
N i=1
Yiobserved
(Yiobserved Yipredicted )
N
MSE = i=1
(11)
(12)
438
5.00
4.34
5.93
2.58
5.71
5.22
2.8
3.07
3.19
3.13
4.67
3.84
LM
MARE (m3/s)
CGF
RB
MSE (m6/s2)
LM
CGF
10.9
11.1
10.2
10.3
11.2
13.5
25.9
19.8
27.3
14.2
16.2
15.2
18.4
30.4
11.7
14.5
13.5
17.1
2125
1645
1670
1652
1467
1394
3608
2567
2569
2531
2689
2227
RB
3127
4728
2003
4140
2049
2181
Table 3The MARE and the MSE for different ANN applications in testing period
Model input
Qt-1
Qt-1, Qt-2
Qt-1, Qt-2, Qt-3
Qt-1, Qt-2, Qt-3, Qt-4
2
3
5
5
6
6
2
2
6
5
7
9
LM
MARE (m3/s)
CGF
RB
14.9
13.7
9.76
15.9
12.3
13.3
16.7
17.2
15.4
19.0
23.7
13.8
14.3
16.6
14.1
9.13
29.4
16.3
LM
MSE (m6/s2)
CGF
RB
359
362
345
354
391
420
378
371
319
358
379
339
380
369
321
324
329
341
LM
CGF
RB
ANOVA
t-test
F-Statistic Resultant t-Statistic
Resultant
Significance
Significance
Level
Level
0.090
0.140
0.001
0.764
0.709
0.974
-0.300
-0.374
-0.033
0.382
0.354
0.487
Sand Type
DR (mm)
s (g/cm3)
D60 (mm)
D10 (mm)
Sile
Ayvalk
Sile
Yaliky
Kilyos
Medium
Medium
Coarse
Coarse
Fine
2.63
2.64
2.65
2.66
2.72
0.389
0.630
0.940
0.870
0.160
0.348
0.470
0.820
0.860
0.120
xmean
Sx
cv
csx
xmin.
xmax.
DR
0.6400
4.9012
2.6673
0.5573
0.4906
2.3926
0.2300
2.7087
0.0340
0.2897
0.2934
1.3572
0.3590
0.5526
0.0127
0.5190
0.5980
0.5670
-0.2800
0.1082
0.7295
-0.2625
0.0863
0.2310
0.3300
0.3096
2.6300
0.1600
0.1200
0.1304
0.8900
9.6850
2.7200
0.9400
0.8600
5.4400
v
s
D60
D10
439
440
CPU time
(s)
Number of
epochs
MARE
(kg/cm2)
MSE
(kg2/cm4)
LM
CGF
RB
6
28
35
50
554
2000
2.29
2.98
2.94
0.0033
0.0035
0.0037
Nodes in
hidden layer
MARE
(kg/cm2)
MSE
(kg2/cm4)
LM
CGF
RB
7
13
7
4.13
4.27
4.13
0.0123
0.0120
0.0118
LM
CGF
RB
ANOVA
t-test
F-Statistic Resultant
t-Statistic
Resultant
Significance
Significance
Level
Level
0.081
0.062
0.0781
0.776
0.804
0.780
0.285
0.249
0.279
0.388
0.401
0.390
441
Conclusions
This study indicated that the forecasting of streamflow and the estimation of lateral stress, are possible
through the use of LM-, CGF- and RB-based neural
networks. The algorithm of Levenberg-Marquardt
takes a small fraction of the time taken by the other
algorithms for training of the network. The RB
algorithm was also found to be faster than the CGF
algorithm in training period. Although the LM had the
best performance criteria in training, the testing
results of the RB were found to be better than those of
the LM in both case studies. This shows the
consistency of the RB algorithm. Based on the
ANOVA and t-tests, it is found that the RB and CGF
algorithms are the most robust in stream-flow
forecasting and lateral stress estimation, respectively.
It is very difficult to know which training algorithm
will perform the best for a given problem. It depends
on many factors, including the complexity of the
problem, the number of data points in the training set,
the number of weights and biases in the network.
References
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