Direct Instruction

Teacher(s): Morgan Matsen

Subject: Mathematics (Algebra 1)

Standard(s): Common Core, Arizona Career and College Ready Standards, ISTE Standards apply to this lesson

HS.S-IC.A.2. Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given data-generating
process, e.g., using simulation. Standard for Common Core and ACCRS
o HS.MP.1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.
o HS.MP.2. Reason abstractly and quantitatively.
o HS.MP.3. Construct viable arguments and critique the reasoning of others.
o HS.MP.4. Model with mathematics.
o HS.MP.5. Use appropriate tools strategically.
o HS.MP.6. Attend to precision.
o HS.MP.7. Look for and make use of structure.
o HS.MP.8. Look for and express regularity in repeated reasoning.
Generally applicable, but also the Empowered Learner standard for students in ISTE.

Objectives (Explicit): Use Blooms verbiage and formula

Students will model the probability of a random song in a playlist being chosen from shuffle as both a
theoretical and experimental probability and then be able to compare the similarities and differences
between the two.

Evidence of Mastery (Measurable): An actual product /Include an explanation of how you are going to
grade/grading tool? (rubric, checklist, etc.)
Summative: Students will fill in a worksheet where they both write the theoretical probability of each outcome and
then measure the actual outcome of random variables being chosen 3 times. The rubric will show that one third of the
points for the class will be for finding the theoretical probability, another third will be for calculating the actual
probability for that experiment and finding the experimental probability, and the final third will be for writing an
explanation of the difference between a theoretical and experimental probability and if this example is truly random.
Formative: My formative assessments will be made gradually throughout the class period. I will go around the class
while they work in groups and individually. I will ask questions such as Rate this assignment 1-10, 1 being
impossible and 10 being easy enough you can do it in your sleep. I will also regulate the groups and encourage every
student to participate to understand their individual understanding.
Sub-objectives, SWBAT (Sequenced from basic to complex): Content and Language objectives action verbs such as
write, list, highlight, etc.)

SWBAT find the theoretical probability of each of the 4 songs being chosen
SWBAT conduct each simulation 10 times and find the experimental probability for each of the 4
songs
SWBAT determine the differences between each probability

SWBAT determine if the experimental probabilities support the theoretical probabilities

SWBAT discuss in groups why the theoretical and experimental probabilities are different and why
that does or doesnt make the theoretical probabilities true.

Key vocabulary:

Probability
Theoretical Probability
Experimental Probability

Materials/Technology Resources to be Used:

Music Players
White Board
Notes of what was taught in class
Probability worksheet

Opening (state objectives, connect to previous learning, and make RELEVENT to real life) ENGAGE/ hook the
students

Instructional Input

We have previously learned about probability and how we can predict probability using math. Today we are going to
talk about how experimental probability compares to theoretical probability and if they will always be the same. The
hook will be when I flip a coin and ask the students what the probability is that I will get a heads or a tails. I will
keep track on the board of which one I flip and ask them to calculate the experimental probability.
Teacher Will: Be specific

I will ask the students to think of an example

in their life where probability is important
and share with the class.
If the students dont respond I will suggest
ideas such as in a board game
After we have shared as a class, I will ask the
students to recall how we learned about
theoretical probability and connect that to
one of the examples given, such as in a
board game if you draw a card and there are
six different options then what is the
probability you will draw a specific card?
and ask if that seems to be the reality.
I will explain that we will be using the
example of a shuffled playlist on a music
player. Students can use their own music
players, one per group. The playlist must
only have clean music, but we wont actually
be listening to the songs anyway. They will
make a playlist of 4 songs and go through the
shuffle 10 times and then write down each
playlist outcome and calculate the theoretical
probability of a specific song being picked
first. Then let them loose for the lesson.

Student Will: Be specific

Be willing to share with the class examples

of probability being used outside the
classroom
Actively participate in group discussions
and as a class, including the teacher, talk
through the concepts of theoretical and
experimental probability.
Listen to instructions and ask clarifying
questions if needed.

Co-Teaching Strategy/Differentiation How will your instruction look different for those students who need
differentiation or accommodations during your instructional input/teaching?

I will have copies of notes that I will hand out to the students that include the questions we asked and the
proper conclusions, as well as instructions listed. This will also be available on my course website. For
emotional needs, I will carefully consider which students I specifically call on and make sure I am
looking for students who want to speak but maybe are too shy.
Teacher Will: Be specific

Guided Practice

For the Guided Practice groups, I will assign

groups of 3 or 4 where different levels are in
each group, some who do very well and
others who struggle.
During this part of the lesson, I wont be
doing anything up front. I will be walking
around and checking that the students
understand instructions and are able to work
in their groups well, and that there is a music
player in each group that can be used.

Student Will: Be specific

This is where the students take over the

lesson for themselves. They will be
working in their groups and first solving
the theoretical probability for a song being
chosen first.
The students will make a playlist on one
music player per group and have 4 songs
in the playlist
The students will perform the experiment
and shuffle the playlist 10 times and record
which song was chosen on their worksheet
The students will then calculate the
experimental probability and discuss if the
experimental probability is different and
why within their groups.

Co-Teaching Strategy/Differentiation/Check for Understandinghow are you going to know if EACH student is
ready to move onto independent practice? And how are you going to differentiate if they do not understand?

Independent Practice

In this portion differentiation will mostly have to do with how students work. I will assign the groups based on skill
level and personality so that each member can contribute. Those who would rather work alone are free to do so, and
as I walk around my whole goal will be to determine if some students need more to work on or less.
Teacher Will: Be specific

Provide a worksheet for the students to

practice calculating probability
Be sure that students understand how to
make a word problem and give examples
Walk around the class and have discussions
with the students about the probabilities they
calculated and the experimental probabilities

Student Will: Be specific

Complete worksheet that has different

examples of theoretical probability
Understand that on paper we calculate
theoretical probability
Be able to calculate basic probabilities for
common situations (example: if you have 3
red shirts and 5 blue shirts what is the
probability you grab a red shirt)
Be able to make a word problem for a
simple probability situation

Co-Teaching Strategy/Differentiation How will your instruction look different for those students who need
differentiation or accommodations?

The homework can be modified for students, and the best part is that the students can make their own
word problem which they can then find probability for in real life. If a student likes basketball, they can
shoot hoops, if a student likes to play a video game that can be incorporated. This assignment allows
students to be creative and personalize their learning.
Closing/Student Reflection/Real-life connections: What connections will students make to their real lives? What
essential questions will they reflect on in their closure of the lesson?
This lesson has tied fairly well in to real life, but to drive this home even further I will give my own example of
probability in something I enjoy: food. I will give my own word problem of how many of each color fruit loop are in
my cereal bowl and how the experimental and theoretical probability are different. This will be the students
assignment as well so they can make their own connections to real life. The essential question they will be left
reflecting on is again how are experimental and theoretical probability different?