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Introduction to Probability (ECE 270)

Homework #2

1. [10 points] Jane arrives at the ECE270 class any time between [20, 40] minutes past
3pm. Suppose the probability that Jane arrives in the time interval [a, b] for
20 a b 40 is (b-a) /20 and the probability that Jane arrives at a specific time t0 is
zero.
a) What is the probability that Jane is at least 5 minutes late?
b) Given that Jane arrives late, what is the probability that Jane is at least 5 minutes
late?

2.

a) [5 points] Find ( | ) i) if A B = ; ii) if A B ; iii) if B A .


b) [5 points] Show that if ( | ) > ( ) , then ( | ) > () .

3. [20 points] We have two biased coins: coin1 and coin2. Suppose for coin1
P({H})=1/3, and for coin2 P({H})=2/3. Suppose we randomly pick one of the two
coins and we flip the randomly picked coin three times. We count the number of
heads that appear in three tosses. (NOTE: the chance that we pick either of the two
coins, coin1 or coin2, is equal.)
a) What is the probability that the number of heads is 2?
b) Given that only 1 heads is observed, what is the probability that coin1 was tossed?
c) Given that only 1 heads is observed, what is the probability that coin2 was tossed?
d) Comparing answers b) and c) which coin is more probable, when only 1 heads
appears?
4. [15 points] A computer manufacturer uses chips from three sources. Chips from
sources A, B and C are defective with probabilities .005, .001 and .010, respectively.
Assume that the proportions of chips from A, B, and C are 0.5, 0.1 and 0.4
respectively. Suppose a randomly selected chip is found to be defective.
a) Find the probability that its manufacturer was A.
b) Find the probability that its manufacturer was B.
c) Find the probability that its manufacturer was C.

5. [15 points] A ternary communication system is shown below. Suppose that input
symbols 0, 1, and 2 occur with probability 1/3 respectively.
a) Find the probabilities of the output symbols.
b) Suppose that a 1 is observed at the output. What is the probability that the input
was 0?
c) Suppose that a 2 is observed at the output. What is the probability that the input
was 1?

6. [10 points] Show that if A and B are two independent events, then the pairs A and
Bc , A c and B, and A c and Bc are also independent.
7. [10 points] Let A and B be events with probabilities P(A) and P(B).
a) Find ( ) if A and B are independent.
b) Find ( ) if A and B are mutually exclusive.
8. [10 points] In the ternary communication system in question 5, are the channel input
and output independent?