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RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY13

17 APR 2013

Reliance Industries
BUY
INDUSTRY

OIL & GAS

CMP (as on 16 Apr 2013)

Rs 805

Target Price

Rs 960

Nifty

5,689

Sensex

18,745

KEY STOCK DATA


Bloomberg/Reuters

RIL IN/RELI.BO

No. of Shares (mn)

3,229

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn)

2,599 / 48,005

Gas price hike is the key


RIL reported impressive GRMs (US$ 10.1/bbl, +5%
QoQ, +33% YoY) in 4QFY13 due to high cracks.
Petchem EBIT fell 2% QoQ (lower polyester spreads
and vols). Gas vols fell to 19 mmsmcd (-22% QoQ, 47% YoY). Other income fell 2% YoY to Rs 22bn. The
impending gas price hike can drive up RIL. Our
(unchanged) SOTP of Rs 960 assumes a $2/mmbtu
hike from Apr-14. Reliance has fallen ~13% over the
last 12 weeks. BUY

Refining : petcoke plant to augment earnings

E&P: fresh investment post gas price hike

Shale gas : vols to rise 40% CAGR

2,813

Rs 955 / 673

6m avg traded value (Rs mn)


STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)
52 Week high / low
3M

6M

12M

Absolute (%)

(6.5)

(0.9)

7.6

Relative (%)

(1.1)

(1.8)

(1.7)

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)


Promoters

45.34

FIs & Local MFs

10.90

FIIs

17.79

Public & Others

25.97

Source : BSE

Aishwarya Deepak, CFA


aishwarya.deepak@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7322

Clarity on gas pricing will trigger fresh investment into


satellites, R-series and other satellites. Existing
infrastructure will entail low incremental investments.
MJ1 drilling results are expected by May-13. We think
investors will ascribe value to exploration success on
smooth production (unlike D6 vol decline from 60
mmsmcd to 16 mmsmcd).
D6 production will decline in FY14 and should be
controlled in FY15 with compressors and work-over.
Production from new pools is unlikely before FY16.

Petchem : staggered rise in volumes

RIL is setting up (a) 1.1 mmt polyester and 2.3 mmt PTA
facility in FY14, (b) 0.35 mmt polyester and 2.3 mmt PX
facility in FY15, (c) gas-based cracker of 1,365 KTA

Standalone Financials (Rs mn)


Net Sales
EBITDA
PAT
Diluted EPS (Rs)
P/E (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)

4QFY13
841,980
78,250
55,890
17.27

4QFY12
851,820
65,630
42,360
12.90

YoY(%)
(1%)
19%
32%
34%

ethylene with downstream in FY16. These expansions


will increase petchem EBITDA by 10/30% in FY14/15E
assuming constant spreads.

RIL is setting up a petcoke re-gas plant, to convert coke


(least priced output) into gas. This will improve yields
and hence GRM (co guided $2.5/bbl). It is expected to
augment refining earnings only in FY17.
RILs shale gas output (from US assets) has jumped
130%+ in FY14 to 101.2 bcfe. We expect shale oil and
gas vols to post 40% CAGR over the next three years.

Retail biz turned EBITDA positive in FY13

Reliance Retail achieved Rs 108bn revenue (+42% YoY)


and EBITDA of Rs 0.8bn in FY13 (Rs 3.4bn loss in FY12).

Outlook & valuation

Earnings growth from capex is expected in FY15 and


onwards. Meanwhile, gas pricing policy and
exploration successes are key valuation triggers.
However, GRM and petchem spreads account for
2/3rd of our current SOTP.

3QFY13
938,860
83,730
55,020
17.04

QoQ (%)
(10%)
(7%)
2%
1%

FY12
3,299,040
336,190
200,400
61.21
12.6
7.5
12.6

FY13
FY14E
3,602,970 3,615,304
307,870
307,128
210,030
202,127
64.91
62.47
11.9
12.3
8.2
8.2
12.1
10.7

FY15E
3,740,982
326,310
214,229
66.21
11.6
7.7
10.4

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY13

Analyst meet takeaways


E&P business

Volume decline from D6 is expected to continue in


FY14. However, boosted compressors and work over
drilling might improve volumes in FY15.

Co will hire one deep water rig in Jul-13, which will be


deployed for E&P activity. It has submitted a Revised
FDP for D1 and D3. Further, it has got approval for a
Revised FDP for D26. It has submitted FDP for RCluster and Other Satellite areas (likely to start
production in 3-5 years).
MJ1 drilling results are expected by next month.

Integrated development plan for four discoveries


submitted to MC (first gas by 2019). Management
expects to invest ~US$ 5bn on domestic E&P business
in the next three years.

Refining business

Shutdowns (net global refining capacity reduced by


250 kbpd in 2012) and unplanned outages are
supporting global refining margins.
Robust auto fuel demand in Asia supported Singapore
GRMs, which are at 10-year high.

RIL is setting up a petcoke re-gas plant, which will


convert coke (least priced output) into gas. This will
improve yields and hence GRMs (co guided for
$2.5/bbl). This boost will play out only in FY17.

Petrochemicals business

Global ethylene demand supply imbalance leading


ethylene operating rate at 86% (higher than 5 years
average), expected to remain in favour of producers
for the next 2-3 years.

Company is setting up (a) 1.1 mmt polyester and 2.3


mmt PTA facility in FY14 (b) 0.35 mmt polyester and
2.3 mmt PX facility in FY15 (c) gas-based cracker of
1,365 KTA ethylene with downstream in FY16.

Shale gas
Reliances shale gas output (from US assets) has
grown more than 130% in FY14 to 101.2 Bcfe. We
expect shale oil and gas vols to post 40% CAGR over
the next three years.

Retail business
Reliance Retail achieved Rs 108bn revenue (+42% YoY)

and EBITDA of Rs 0.8bn in FY13 (Rs 3.4bn loss in FY12).

Page | 2

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY13


QUARTERLY FINANCIALS SNAPSHOT

Other income increased on


QoQ basis due to higher cash

(Rs mn)
Net Sales
Material Expenses
Employee Expenses
Other Operating Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Cost
Depreciation
Other Income
PBT
Tax
APAT
RPAT
EPS

4QFY13
841,980
699,150
7,920
55,500
78,250
7,090
22,390
22,430
71,200
15,310
55,890
55,890
17.27

4QFY12
851,820
730,880
5,970
50,500
65,630
5,300
26,590
22,950
54,310
11,950
42,360
42,360
12.90

YoY(%)
(1%)
(4%)
33%
10%
19%
34%
(16%)
(2%)
31%
28%
32%
32%
34%

3QFY13
938,860
790,030
8,630
57,270
83,730
5,110
24,570
17,400
68,500
13,480
55,020
55,020
17.04

QoQ (%)
(10%)
(12%)
(8%)
(3%)
(7%)
39%
(9%)
29%
4%
14%
2%
2%
1%

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

MARGIN ANALYSIS
Margin Analysis
Material Expenses as % of Net Sales
Employee Expenses as % of Net Sales
EBITDA Margin (%)
Net Profit Margin (%)
Tax Rate (%)

4QFY13
83%
1%
9%
7%
22%

4QFY12
86%
1%
8%
5%
22%

3QFY13
84%
1%
9%
6%
20%

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 3

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY13


SEGMENTAL QUARTERLY PERFORMANCE

Refinery shut down led to 16.1


mmt thruput in 4QFY13
against 17.5 mmt thruput in
previous quarter
Polyester margin declined,
adversely affected
petrochemical EBIT

(Rs mn)
Segmental Revenues
Petrochemicals
Refining
Oil & Gas
Others
Total
Segmental Results Before Interest, Tax & Exceptional
Petrochemicals
Refining
Oil & Gas
Others
Total
Less:
(a) Interest cost & Bank charges
(b) Other Un-allocable expenses

4QFY13

4QFY12

YoY(%)

3QFY13

QoQ (%)

FY12

221,580
778,720
15,970
3,590
1,019,860

214,120
762,110
26,090
2,600
1,004,920

3%
2%
(39%)
38%
1%

220,530
866,410
19,210
1,760
1,107,910

0%
(10%)
(17%)
104%
(8%)

806,250
2,947,340
128,980
12,130
3,894,700

18,950
35,200
4,600
480
59,230

21,740
16,960
9,510
70
48,280

(13%)
108%
(52%)
586%
23%

19,370
36,150
5,900
770
62,190

(2%)
(3%)
(22%)
(38%)
(5%)

89,680
96,550
52,490
340
239,060

7,090

7,680

(8%)

8,060

(12%)

26,670

8%
2%
(8%)
23%
4%
(1%)
2%

322,380
745,040
276,670
145,260
1,489,350
975,410
2,464,760

81,620
EBIT Margins
Petrochemicals
Refining
Oil & Gas
Capital Employed
Petrochemicals
Refining
Oil & Gas
Others
Total
Unallocable Capital Employed
Total Capital Employed

86,760

8.6%
4.5%
28.8%

10.2%
2.2%
36.5%

388,160
668,110
251,670
222,010
1,529,950
1,147,370
2,677,320

322,380
745,040
276,670
145,260
1,489,350
975,410
2,464,760

8.8%
4.2%
30.7%
20%
(10%)
(9%)
53%
3%
18%
9%

358,300
658,200
272,980
180,110
1,469,590
1,153,830
2,623,420

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 4

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY13


QUARTERLY PERFORMANCE
1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY12

Shale oil and gas volumes


increased by more than
100% in FY13

Singapore GRMs are at


a 10 year high

Polyester margins were


under stress in FY13

E & P ( volumes in mmscmd)


Gas production in KG
Shale gas (Net sales volumes in Bcfe)
NGL
Condensate
Gas
Total
Total wells drilled
Refining
Reported GRM ($/bbl)
Singapore GRM ($/bbl)
Arab H-L gap
HSD spread ($/bbl)
Crude thruput (in mmt)
Petrochemicals
Production in mmt
Margins/kg of production
Polymers (volumes in OOO tons)
PE,PP,PVC
Polyester
Production volumes (in 000 tons)
PFY, PSF and PET
PX, PTA and MEG
Spreads in US$ per ton
PX-Naptha
PTA - PX
MEG - Naptha
POY-PTA-MEG
PSF-PTA-MEG
PET-PTA-MEG
PP - Propylene
HDPE - Naphtha
PVC - EDC
Butadine - LPG
PBR - Butadine
Benzene - Naphtha
LAB - kero

FY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13

YoY

QoQ

49

46

42

36

43

32

29

24

19

(47%)

(22%)

0.80
1.60
3.20
5.60
128

2.00
2.80
4.70
9.50
181

2.80
4.20
6.30
13.30
259

3.10
4.60
7.90
15.60
323

8.70
13.20
22.10
44.00
323

3.00
5.00
10.50
18.50
390

4.40
5.60
13.90
23.90
460

2%
10%
17%
12%
11%

$10.1
$9.90
$3.8
$17.61
17.1

$6.8
$3.70
$3.2
$18.40
17.3

$7.6
$7.47
$2.6
$16.50
16.3

$8.6
$7.39
$3.5
$18.03
67.7

$7.6
$6.67
$3.3
$15.55
17.3

$9.5
$9.13
$2.5
$19.51
17.6

5.20
6.90
19.00
31.10
568
54
$10.1
$8.7
$4.5
$19.78
16.1

68%
50%
141%
99%
76%

$10.3
$8.50
$5.1
$19.60
17.0

5.10
6.30
16.30
27.70
514
54
$9.6
$6.47
$4.0
$17.94
17.5

33%
16%
73%
20%
(1%)

5%
34%
13%
10%
(8%)

5.5
5.0

5.6
5.3

5.5
4.9

5.5
4.9

22.1
5.0

5.6
4.0

5.5
3.9

5.5
4.8

5.4
4.7

(2%)
(4%)

(2%)
(2%)

1,091

1,109

1,200

1,100

4,500

1,100

1,100

1,100

1,100

0%

0%

411
1,200

414
1,200

375
1,200

500
1,200

1,700
4,800

415
1,200

422
1,200

363
1,200

430
1,170

(14%)
(3%)

18%
(3%)

$641
$198
$521
$363
$265
$237
$164
$412
$512
$2,484
$1,025
$173
$967

$611
$215
$636
$320
$163
$199
$192
$461
$487
$2,923
$733
$183
$959

$625
$100
$551
$272
$213
$243
$127
$459
$446
$1,373
$1,065
$117
$858

$600
$100
$407
$234
$185
$234
$77
$389
$507
$2,415
$239
$195
$698

$612
$161
$531
$297
$227
$230
$140
$430
$488
$2,319
$758
$165
$906

$638
$73
$377
$207
$164
$198
$108
$498
$561
$1,562
$968
$259
$920

$467
$140
$433
$237
$109
$140
$113
$439
$562
$1,333
$769
$301
$774

$651
$57
$467
$223
$135
$133
$166
$446
$511
$654
$948
$457
$964

$681
$76
$499
$213
$183
$193
$148
$546
$507
$883
$695
$464
$621

14%
(24%)
23%
(9%)
(1%)
(18%)
92%
40%
0%
(63%)
191%
138%
(11%)

5%
33%
7%
(4%)
36%
45%
(11%)
22%
(1%)
35%
(27%)
2%
(36%)

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 5

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY13


SOTP VALUATION

Refining biz biggest


component
KG boosted by gas price, but
constrained by vols
Introducing telecom in SOTP

Business
Petrochemicals
Refining
E&P
PMT
KG D6 gas
CBM
MA Oil and gas
Shale gas
Investments in Retail
Investments in Telecom
Net cash at the end of FY14

EBITDA Multiple Value in mn Value per share


Valuation basis
107,360
7.0
751,520
264 7x EV/EBITDA on FY14 EBITDA (8.9% EBIT margin)
406 7x EV/EBITDA on FY14 EBITDA (GRM $ 8.5/bbl)
165,473
7.0
1,158,313
83,699
149,381
74,100
45,600
135,960
42,500
57,600
163,589

29
52
26
16
48
15
20
57

*Value per share


* Based on 2.85 bn shares (net of treasury shares)

4.5x EV/EBITDA on FY14 EBITDA


Assuming gas price of $6.2/mmbtu from Apr-14
NPV
NPV
0.5x of Investments
0.5x BV (reduced multiple due to loss making business)
0.5x of investments in BWA

960

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

ASSUMPTIONS

Gas from KG is expected to


decline in FY14 and stabilize
by FY15

Dubai fateh crude price


INR/USD
Refining business
GRM
Crude thruput
Gas business
Gas production
Gas realisation per mmbtu

FY11
$84.3
45.6

FY12
$109.9
47.9

FY13
$107.0
54.4

FY14E
$100.0
56.0

FY15E
$100.0
54.0

$8.4
66.6

$8.6
67.7

$9.2
68.5

$8.5
68.4

$8.5
68.4

56.1
$4.2

42.8
$4.2

26.1
$4.2

13.4
$4.2

10.9
$6.2

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 6

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY13

STANDALONE INCOME STATEMENT


(Rs mn)
Revenues

FY12

FY13

FY14E

FY15E

2,481,700 3,299,040 3,602,970 3,615,304 3,740,982

Growth %
Raw material

STANDALONE BALANCE SHEET


FY11
28.9

32.9

9.2

0.3

3.5

1,914,550 2,753,830 3,082,273 3,091,382 3,193,746

Employee cost

26,240

28,620

30,623

32,767

35,061

Operating and other expenses

159,650

180,400

182,204

184,026

185,866

EBITDA

381,260

336,190

307,870

307,128

326,310

EBITDA %

15.4

10.2

8.5

8.5

8.7

EBITDA growth %

24.7

(11.8)

(8.4)

(0.2)

6.2

Depreciation, Depletion, Impairment

136,080

113,940

94,650

95,000

98,100

EBIT

245,180

222,250

213,220

212,128

228,210

23,280

26,670

30,360

37,635

38,000

Finance charges
Other income

30,520

61,920

79,980

88,009

88,010

252,420

257,500

262,840

262,502

278,220

49,560

57,100

52,810

60,376

63,991

PAT

202,860

200,400

210,030

202,127

214,229

EPS

62.0

61.2

64.9

62.5

66.2

EPS Growth %

24.9

(1.3)

6.1

(3.8)

6.0

PBT
Provision for taxes
PP/EO/Minority/Associate interest

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

(Rs mn)

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14E

FY15E

32,820

32,710

32,540

32,290

32,290

SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital (including
suspense/warrant)
Reserves and surplus

1,482,670 1,628,250 1,767,660 1,937,822 2,120,085

Total Equity

1,515,490 1,660,960 1,800,200 1,970,112 2,152,375

Minority Interest

Short Term debt

105,930

115,110

105,930

105,930

Long Term debt

675,850

480,340

430,120

578,340

578,340

Total Debt

675,850

586,270

545,230

684,270

684,270

Deferred tax liability

115,620

121,220

121,930

126,156

130,636

Long Term Provision & Others


TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS

2,306,960 2,368,450 2,467,360 2,780,538 2,967,281

APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Net fixed assets

1,427,080 1,137,230 1,210,050 1,185,050 1,146,950

Intangible assets

94,690

40,590

40,590

40,590

40,590

Capital WIP

27,590

36,950

38,000

188,000

338,000

Long Term Loans and Advances

106,980

143,400

215,280

215,280

215,280

Investments

376,520

540,080

525,090

525,090

525,090

Inventories

298,240

359,550

427,290

396,198

409,971

Debtors

174,420

184,240

118,800

227,814

235,733

Cash and Bank balance

271,350

395,980

495,470

593,579

662,224

ST Loans and Advances

68,330

110,890

109,740

109,740

109,740

1,990

2,490

4,800

4,800

4,800

Goodwill

Other Current Assets


Total Current Assets

814,330 1,053,150 1,156,100 1,332,130 1,422,468


-

540,230

582,950

717,750

705,602

721,097

274,100

470,200

438,350

626,528

701,371

Creditors
Current Liabilities & Provisions
Net Current Assets
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS

2,306,960 2,368,450 2,467,360 2,780,538 2,967,281

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 7

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY13


STANDALONE CASH FLOW

STANDALONE KEY RATIOS

(Rs mn)

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14E

FY15E

202,860

200,400

210,030

202,127

214,229

Reported PAT
Less: Non-operating and EO
items (net of tax)
Less: Other income (net of tax)

(24,528)

(48,189)

(63,910)

(67,767)

(67,768)

PAT FROM OPERATIONS

178,332

152,211

146,120

134,360

146,461

Add: Depreciation

136,080

113,940

94,650

95,000

98,100

23,280

26,670

30,360

37,635

38,000

Working capital change

(21,767) (103,980)

57,615

(85,843)

(1,719)

OPERATING CASH FLOW

315,925

188,841

328,744

181,152

280,843

Capex

(31,453)

220,650 (168,520) (220,000)

(210,000)

Add: Interest

Investments
Other income (net of tax)

(278,533) (285,350)

402,080

63,910

67,767

67,768
(142,232)

24,528

48,189

(285,458)

(16,511)

297,470 (152,233)

(31,356)

(22,613)

(38,825)

(250)

Debt issuance

50,903

(89,580)

(41,040)

139,040

Less: Interest

(23,280)

(26,670)

(30,360)

(37,635)

(38,000)

Less: Dividend

(24,308)

(30,627)

(29,410)

(31,965)

(31,965)

FINANCING CASH FLOW

(28,041) (169,490) (139,635)

69,190

(69,965)

INVESTING CASH FLOW


Capital issuance

NET CASH FLOW

2,426

2,840

486,580

98,109

68,645

Closing cash

6,050

8,890

495,470

593,579

662,224

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14E

FY15E

PROFITABILITY (%)
EBITDA margin

15.4

10.2

8.5

8.5

8.7

EBIT margin

9.9

6.7

5.9

5.9

6.1

APAT margin

8.2

6.1

5.8

5.6

5.7

RoE

14.1

12.6

12.1

10.7

10.4

RoCE

10.6

10.0

10.2

9.2

8.9

19.6

22.2

20.1

23.0

23.0

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.4

1.4

Inventory (days)

43.9

39.8

43.3

40.0

40.0

Debtor (days)

25.7

20.4

12.0

23.0

23.0

Payables (days)

51.2

44.6

46.4

45.0

45.0

Cash conversion cycle (days)

18.3

15.6

8.9

18.0

18.0

0.7

(0.2)

(0.8)

(0.6)

(0.8)

EFFICIENCY
Tax rate %
Total Asset turnover (x)

Net Debt/EBITDA (x)


Net D/E

0.2

(0.0)

(0.1)

(0.1)

(0.1)

10.5

8.3

7.0

5.6

6.0

EPS (Rs)

62.0

61.2

64.9

62.5

66.2

CEPS (Rs)

103.6

96.0

94.2

91.8

96.5

Interest coverage
PER SHARE DATA

DPS (Rs)

8.0

8.5

8.5

8.5

8.5

463.0

507.8

556.4

608.9

665.2

12.4

12.6

11.9

12.3

11.6

P/Cash EPS (x)

7.4

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.0

P/BV (x)

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

EV/EBITDA (x)

6.6

7.5

8.2

8.2

7.7

EV/Revenue (x)

1.1

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

Dividend Yield (%)

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.1

CFO/EV (%)

11%

8%

14%

8%

12%

FCFF/EV (%)

1%

7%

27%

1%

6%

FCFE/M Cap (%)

2%

2%

22%

5%

4%

BV (Rs)
VALUATION
P/E (x)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 8

RELIANCE INDUSTRIES : RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY13

Rating Definitions
BUY

Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months' period

OUTPERFORM

Where the stock is expected to deliver 0 to 15% returns over the next 12 months' period

UNDERPERFORM

Where the stock is expected to deliver (-) 10% to 0% returns over the next 12 months' period

SELL

Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 months' period

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