Professional Documents
Culture Documents
17 APR 2013
Reliance Industries
BUY
INDUSTRY
Rs 805
Target Price
Rs 960
Nifty
5,689
Sensex
18,745
RIL IN/RELI.BO
3,229
2,599 / 48,005
2,813
Rs 955 / 673
6M
12M
Absolute (%)
(6.5)
(0.9)
7.6
Relative (%)
(1.1)
(1.8)
(1.7)
45.34
10.90
FIIs
17.79
25.97
Source : BSE
RIL is setting up (a) 1.1 mmt polyester and 2.3 mmt PTA
facility in FY14, (b) 0.35 mmt polyester and 2.3 mmt PX
facility in FY15, (c) gas-based cracker of 1,365 KTA
4QFY13
841,980
78,250
55,890
17.27
4QFY12
851,820
65,630
42,360
12.90
YoY(%)
(1%)
19%
32%
34%
3QFY13
938,860
83,730
55,020
17.04
QoQ (%)
(10%)
(7%)
2%
1%
FY12
3,299,040
336,190
200,400
61.21
12.6
7.5
12.6
FY13
FY14E
3,602,970 3,615,304
307,870
307,128
210,030
202,127
64.91
62.47
11.9
12.3
8.2
8.2
12.1
10.7
FY15E
3,740,982
326,310
214,229
66.21
11.6
7.7
10.4
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO> & Thomson Reuters
Refining business
Petrochemicals business
Shale gas
Reliances shale gas output (from US assets) has
grown more than 130% in FY14 to 101.2 Bcfe. We
expect shale oil and gas vols to post 40% CAGR over
the next three years.
Retail business
Reliance Retail achieved Rs 108bn revenue (+42% YoY)
Page | 2
(Rs mn)
Net Sales
Material Expenses
Employee Expenses
Other Operating Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Cost
Depreciation
Other Income
PBT
Tax
APAT
RPAT
EPS
4QFY13
841,980
699,150
7,920
55,500
78,250
7,090
22,390
22,430
71,200
15,310
55,890
55,890
17.27
4QFY12
851,820
730,880
5,970
50,500
65,630
5,300
26,590
22,950
54,310
11,950
42,360
42,360
12.90
YoY(%)
(1%)
(4%)
33%
10%
19%
34%
(16%)
(2%)
31%
28%
32%
32%
34%
3QFY13
938,860
790,030
8,630
57,270
83,730
5,110
24,570
17,400
68,500
13,480
55,020
55,020
17.04
QoQ (%)
(10%)
(12%)
(8%)
(3%)
(7%)
39%
(9%)
29%
4%
14%
2%
2%
1%
MARGIN ANALYSIS
Margin Analysis
Material Expenses as % of Net Sales
Employee Expenses as % of Net Sales
EBITDA Margin (%)
Net Profit Margin (%)
Tax Rate (%)
4QFY13
83%
1%
9%
7%
22%
4QFY12
86%
1%
8%
5%
22%
3QFY13
84%
1%
9%
6%
20%
Page | 3
(Rs mn)
Segmental Revenues
Petrochemicals
Refining
Oil & Gas
Others
Total
Segmental Results Before Interest, Tax & Exceptional
Petrochemicals
Refining
Oil & Gas
Others
Total
Less:
(a) Interest cost & Bank charges
(b) Other Un-allocable expenses
4QFY13
4QFY12
YoY(%)
3QFY13
QoQ (%)
FY12
221,580
778,720
15,970
3,590
1,019,860
214,120
762,110
26,090
2,600
1,004,920
3%
2%
(39%)
38%
1%
220,530
866,410
19,210
1,760
1,107,910
0%
(10%)
(17%)
104%
(8%)
806,250
2,947,340
128,980
12,130
3,894,700
18,950
35,200
4,600
480
59,230
21,740
16,960
9,510
70
48,280
(13%)
108%
(52%)
586%
23%
19,370
36,150
5,900
770
62,190
(2%)
(3%)
(22%)
(38%)
(5%)
89,680
96,550
52,490
340
239,060
7,090
7,680
(8%)
8,060
(12%)
26,670
8%
2%
(8%)
23%
4%
(1%)
2%
322,380
745,040
276,670
145,260
1,489,350
975,410
2,464,760
81,620
EBIT Margins
Petrochemicals
Refining
Oil & Gas
Capital Employed
Petrochemicals
Refining
Oil & Gas
Others
Total
Unallocable Capital Employed
Total Capital Employed
86,760
8.6%
4.5%
28.8%
10.2%
2.2%
36.5%
388,160
668,110
251,670
222,010
1,529,950
1,147,370
2,677,320
322,380
745,040
276,670
145,260
1,489,350
975,410
2,464,760
8.8%
4.2%
30.7%
20%
(10%)
(9%)
53%
3%
18%
9%
358,300
658,200
272,980
180,110
1,469,590
1,153,830
2,623,420
Page | 4
YoY
QoQ
49
46
42
36
43
32
29
24
19
(47%)
(22%)
0.80
1.60
3.20
5.60
128
2.00
2.80
4.70
9.50
181
2.80
4.20
6.30
13.30
259
3.10
4.60
7.90
15.60
323
8.70
13.20
22.10
44.00
323
3.00
5.00
10.50
18.50
390
4.40
5.60
13.90
23.90
460
2%
10%
17%
12%
11%
$10.1
$9.90
$3.8
$17.61
17.1
$6.8
$3.70
$3.2
$18.40
17.3
$7.6
$7.47
$2.6
$16.50
16.3
$8.6
$7.39
$3.5
$18.03
67.7
$7.6
$6.67
$3.3
$15.55
17.3
$9.5
$9.13
$2.5
$19.51
17.6
5.20
6.90
19.00
31.10
568
54
$10.1
$8.7
$4.5
$19.78
16.1
68%
50%
141%
99%
76%
$10.3
$8.50
$5.1
$19.60
17.0
5.10
6.30
16.30
27.70
514
54
$9.6
$6.47
$4.0
$17.94
17.5
33%
16%
73%
20%
(1%)
5%
34%
13%
10%
(8%)
5.5
5.0
5.6
5.3
5.5
4.9
5.5
4.9
22.1
5.0
5.6
4.0
5.5
3.9
5.5
4.8
5.4
4.7
(2%)
(4%)
(2%)
(2%)
1,091
1,109
1,200
1,100
4,500
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
0%
0%
411
1,200
414
1,200
375
1,200
500
1,200
1,700
4,800
415
1,200
422
1,200
363
1,200
430
1,170
(14%)
(3%)
18%
(3%)
$641
$198
$521
$363
$265
$237
$164
$412
$512
$2,484
$1,025
$173
$967
$611
$215
$636
$320
$163
$199
$192
$461
$487
$2,923
$733
$183
$959
$625
$100
$551
$272
$213
$243
$127
$459
$446
$1,373
$1,065
$117
$858
$600
$100
$407
$234
$185
$234
$77
$389
$507
$2,415
$239
$195
$698
$612
$161
$531
$297
$227
$230
$140
$430
$488
$2,319
$758
$165
$906
$638
$73
$377
$207
$164
$198
$108
$498
$561
$1,562
$968
$259
$920
$467
$140
$433
$237
$109
$140
$113
$439
$562
$1,333
$769
$301
$774
$651
$57
$467
$223
$135
$133
$166
$446
$511
$654
$948
$457
$964
$681
$76
$499
$213
$183
$193
$148
$546
$507
$883
$695
$464
$621
14%
(24%)
23%
(9%)
(1%)
(18%)
92%
40%
0%
(63%)
191%
138%
(11%)
5%
33%
7%
(4%)
36%
45%
(11%)
22%
(1%)
35%
(27%)
2%
(36%)
Page | 5
Business
Petrochemicals
Refining
E&P
PMT
KG D6 gas
CBM
MA Oil and gas
Shale gas
Investments in Retail
Investments in Telecom
Net cash at the end of FY14
29
52
26
16
48
15
20
57
960
ASSUMPTIONS
FY11
$84.3
45.6
FY12
$109.9
47.9
FY13
$107.0
54.4
FY14E
$100.0
56.0
FY15E
$100.0
54.0
$8.4
66.6
$8.6
67.7
$9.2
68.5
$8.5
68.4
$8.5
68.4
56.1
$4.2
42.8
$4.2
26.1
$4.2
13.4
$4.2
10.9
$6.2
Page | 6
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
Growth %
Raw material
32.9
9.2
0.3
3.5
Employee cost
26,240
28,620
30,623
32,767
35,061
159,650
180,400
182,204
184,026
185,866
EBITDA
381,260
336,190
307,870
307,128
326,310
EBITDA %
15.4
10.2
8.5
8.5
8.7
EBITDA growth %
24.7
(11.8)
(8.4)
(0.2)
6.2
136,080
113,940
94,650
95,000
98,100
EBIT
245,180
222,250
213,220
212,128
228,210
23,280
26,670
30,360
37,635
38,000
Finance charges
Other income
30,520
61,920
79,980
88,009
88,010
252,420
257,500
262,840
262,502
278,220
49,560
57,100
52,810
60,376
63,991
PAT
202,860
200,400
210,030
202,127
214,229
EPS
62.0
61.2
64.9
62.5
66.2
EPS Growth %
24.9
(1.3)
6.1
(3.8)
6.0
PBT
Provision for taxes
PP/EO/Minority/Associate interest
(Rs mn)
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
32,820
32,710
32,540
32,290
32,290
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital (including
suspense/warrant)
Reserves and surplus
Total Equity
Minority Interest
105,930
115,110
105,930
105,930
675,850
480,340
430,120
578,340
578,340
Total Debt
675,850
586,270
545,230
684,270
684,270
115,620
121,220
121,930
126,156
130,636
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Net fixed assets
Intangible assets
94,690
40,590
40,590
40,590
40,590
Capital WIP
27,590
36,950
38,000
188,000
338,000
106,980
143,400
215,280
215,280
215,280
Investments
376,520
540,080
525,090
525,090
525,090
Inventories
298,240
359,550
427,290
396,198
409,971
Debtors
174,420
184,240
118,800
227,814
235,733
271,350
395,980
495,470
593,579
662,224
68,330
110,890
109,740
109,740
109,740
1,990
2,490
4,800
4,800
4,800
Goodwill
540,230
582,950
717,750
705,602
721,097
274,100
470,200
438,350
626,528
701,371
Creditors
Current Liabilities & Provisions
Net Current Assets
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Page | 7
(Rs mn)
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
202,860
200,400
210,030
202,127
214,229
Reported PAT
Less: Non-operating and EO
items (net of tax)
Less: Other income (net of tax)
(24,528)
(48,189)
(63,910)
(67,767)
(67,768)
178,332
152,211
146,120
134,360
146,461
Add: Depreciation
136,080
113,940
94,650
95,000
98,100
23,280
26,670
30,360
37,635
38,000
(21,767) (103,980)
57,615
(85,843)
(1,719)
315,925
188,841
328,744
181,152
280,843
Capex
(31,453)
(210,000)
Add: Interest
Investments
Other income (net of tax)
(278,533) (285,350)
402,080
63,910
67,767
67,768
(142,232)
24,528
48,189
(285,458)
(16,511)
297,470 (152,233)
(31,356)
(22,613)
(38,825)
(250)
Debt issuance
50,903
(89,580)
(41,040)
139,040
Less: Interest
(23,280)
(26,670)
(30,360)
(37,635)
(38,000)
Less: Dividend
(24,308)
(30,627)
(29,410)
(31,965)
(31,965)
69,190
(69,965)
2,426
2,840
486,580
98,109
68,645
Closing cash
6,050
8,890
495,470
593,579
662,224
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
PROFITABILITY (%)
EBITDA margin
15.4
10.2
8.5
8.5
8.7
EBIT margin
9.9
6.7
5.9
5.9
6.1
APAT margin
8.2
6.1
5.8
5.6
5.7
RoE
14.1
12.6
12.1
10.7
10.4
RoCE
10.6
10.0
10.2
9.2
8.9
19.6
22.2
20.1
23.0
23.0
1.2
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.4
Inventory (days)
43.9
39.8
43.3
40.0
40.0
Debtor (days)
25.7
20.4
12.0
23.0
23.0
Payables (days)
51.2
44.6
46.4
45.0
45.0
18.3
15.6
8.9
18.0
18.0
0.7
(0.2)
(0.8)
(0.6)
(0.8)
EFFICIENCY
Tax rate %
Total Asset turnover (x)
0.2
(0.0)
(0.1)
(0.1)
(0.1)
10.5
8.3
7.0
5.6
6.0
EPS (Rs)
62.0
61.2
64.9
62.5
66.2
CEPS (Rs)
103.6
96.0
94.2
91.8
96.5
Interest coverage
PER SHARE DATA
DPS (Rs)
8.0
8.5
8.5
8.5
8.5
463.0
507.8
556.4
608.9
665.2
12.4
12.6
11.9
12.3
11.6
7.4
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.0
P/BV (x)
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
EV/EBITDA (x)
6.6
7.5
8.2
8.2
7.7
EV/Revenue (x)
1.1
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
CFO/EV (%)
11%
8%
14%
8%
12%
FCFF/EV (%)
1%
7%
27%
1%
6%
2%
2%
22%
5%
4%
BV (Rs)
VALUATION
P/E (x)
Page | 8
Rating Definitions
BUY
Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months' period
OUTPERFORM
Where the stock is expected to deliver 0 to 15% returns over the next 12 months' period
UNDERPERFORM
Where the stock is expected to deliver (-) 10% to 0% returns over the next 12 months' period
SELL
Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 months' period
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