PSB BJP Pulse of The Nation

Pulse of the Nation:
16 states
USING
THE
SCIENCE
January 17, 2014: Confidential. For limited circulation only.

PENN, SCHOEN & BERLAND
OF
PERSUASION
TO
WIN
The Agenda
1. Battleground : Where do we focus?
2. Message : What should we be saying?
3. Voters : Who should we target?
4. Medium: How to best reach our voters?
418 Parliamentary constituencies across 16 states
PCs Visited
State
Interviews
Total PCs
PCs covered
ACs covered
Total
112103
418
348
710
Andhra Pradesh
6427
42
37
79
Bihar
15006
40
33
73
Chhattisgarh
4016
11
22
Delhi
5080
23
Haryana
3903
10
10
29
Himachal Pradesh
3005
Jammu
3013
12
Jharkhand
4017
14
10
16
Karnataka
8946
28
24
61
Maharashtra
13764
48
41
69
Orissa
5015
21
19
39
Rajasthan
5005
25
24
48
Tamil Nadu
6401
39
32
59
Uttar Pradesh
18054
80
58
101
Uttarakhand
4021
11
West Bengal
6430
42
33
60
Assam*
1165
14
*: Assam fieldwork was abandoned due to intervention of local administration & the part data collected has not been included in the aggregate
Robust methodology to ensure quality

Circular Random Sampling
Quality Control
- Select states divided into regions

- ACs selected randomly
- In each AC, Polling Stations selected randomly
- Respondents identified randomly using latest published voter rolls
In-field checks
Telephonic checks
70%
33%
All predictions have been made within 95% confidence interval with the margin of sampling error
< +/- 1%
+/- 1%
+/- 1.2%
+/- 1.4%
+/- 1.7%
Uttar Pradesh,
Bihar, Maharashtra
& Karnataka
Andhra Pradesh,
Tamil Nadu & West
Bengal
Chhattisgarh,
Haryana,
Jharkhand &
Uttarakhand
Himachal Pradesh
& Jammu
Delhi, Orissa &

Rajasthan
Fieldwork period for all states except Delhi, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan 7th November 15th December 2013
Delhi, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan was started on 8th December to 30th December
Representative of voter population

Demographic spread of the sample
Urban
Geography
Rural
SEC A
28
Female
Gender
18 24 yrs.
11
47
25 34 yrs.
25
Hindus
35 44 yrs.
25
Muslims
Religion
39
32
SEC D
Till Senior Sec.
OWE
39
17
Graduate & above
43
Student
17
NW
4 5
11 3
ST
21
Homemaker
35
From Census 2011

Urban
30%
Male
51%
Rural
Female
70%
49%
From Joshua Report

Hindus
81%
Muslims
10%
OBC
41
From NSSO and Census 2001

FC
25%
SC
OBC
47%
ST
Figures in %
SEC E
23
48
CWE
Employment
SEC C
Others
SC
31
19
Education
Above 45 yrs.
86
FC
SEC B
No Schooling
53
Castes
SEC
72
Male
Age
Socio-Economic spread of the sample
17%
11%
A large number of voters are unschooled and living in

agri- households
Education of the
respondent
Occupation of the
CWE
Status of the
respondent
All
Respondents
Youth
(18 24)
Young
(25 34)
Women
OBCs
SEC E
No Schooling
48%
29%
41%
56%
52%
87%
Till Senior Secondary
55%
55%
48%
37%
41%
13%
Graduate and above
9%
15%
11%
7%
8%
1%
Farmer or Labourers
63%
61%
61%
64%
66%
90%
Blue-collar workers
30%
31%
31%
29%
9%
3%
White-collar workers
8%
8%
8%
8%
7%
1%
CWE
39%
19%
35%
14%
39%
40%
OWE
17%
25%
23%
11%
17%
13%
Student
4%
26%
3%
3%
4%
2%
NW
5%
7%
3%
6%
5%
5%
Homemaker
35%
23%
36%
67%
36%
40%
BATTLEGROUNDS
A change agent will gain mind-share

44% Youth critical
40% Youth optimistic
UPA performance
10%
Hope from the future
14%
19%
51% of voters
say the country is
heading in the
wrong direction
13%
32%
34%
16%
31%
31%
Very Good
Good
Bad
Very Bad
DK/CS
Better
Same
Worse
DK/CS
56% Muslims complimentary
Grassroots mobilization and candidate will matter.

Sh. Modi to focus on key states
Figures in %
Reason for voting
Leader
Jammu
22
Has a clean image

Strong leader needed as its Prime Minister
Leader
47
21
Is known for his good work
Comes from a good family
28
3
45
Have always voted for the party
Expected to form the government
Party
51
24
My community is supporting the party
18
I am voting against a particular party
I agree with the partys view on most issues
From my caste/community
13
From my local area
Local Candidate
34
Has done good work in my constituency
28
Has an important position in his/her party

I am voting against a particular candidate
39
9
4
Party
Local Candidate
39
Haryana
35
44
17
49
16
Tamil Nadu
30
Karnataka
28
Uttarakhand
28
Himachal Pradesh
27
52
21
Bihar
26
52
21
Jharkhand
26
37
33
45
27
57
34
14
40
Orissa
22
Delhi
20
Uttar Pradesh
20
Andhra Pradesh
19
Chattisgarh
16
58
26
Rajasthan
15
61
24
West Bengal
13
Maharashtra
11
49
29
64
16
58
36
22
46
56
30
57
33
Momentum for the BJP and Sh. Modi

Favourability of Parties
BJP
INC
70
58
Net
18
31
Favourability of leaders
52
Narendra Modi
27
Rahul Gandhi
70
58
Net
16
54
28
30
RaGa more favourable than the party

10
Sh. Modi consolidating traditional base

Impact of Sh. Modi as PM candidate
33
34
More likely to vote for BJP

No change
Less likely to vote for BJP
DK/CS
27
More likely to vote for BJP

- Vote in 2009: 31% SEC A & 34% SEC B & 41% FC
- Vote in 2014: 43% SEC A & 39% SEC B & 49% FC
Less likely to vote for BJP

- Vote in 2009: 15% Muslims
- Vote in 2014: 8% Muslims
39 - 51
=38 (National Avg)
18 - 37
Muslims moving away from the party

11
Currently at about ~ 102 + 76 seats for 16 states

90%
80%
70%
60%
Probability to win
State
Uttar Pradesh
Bihar
Rajasthan
Chhattisgarh
Haryana
Delhi
Uttarakhand
Andhra Pradesh
Tamil Nadu
Karnataka
Maharashtra (SHS)
West Bengal
Orissa
Jharkhand
Jammu
HP
Total
Total
Sure
High
80
40
25
11
10
7
5
42
39
28
48
42
21
14
2
4
13
1
21
7
5
11
418
4
3
Lead but Up
for grabs
Low
23
14
33
25
1
2
3
3
4
11
2
11
15
3
2
4
1
4
42
37
16
15
41
20
4
69
33
76
240
1
7
1
State
Gujarat
Madhya Pradesh
Punjab
Total
Total
26
40
13
79
Sure (80%)
21
32
10
63
12
Hindi belt UP, Bihar, Delhi

Uttar Pradesh
Bihar
Rajasthan
Uttarakhand
BJP
47
BJP
15
BJP
25
BJP
INC
UPA
20
INC
INC
SP
JD(U)
IND
BSP
BSP
14
Others
Total
25
Total
RLD
Total
40
Others
Total
80
Haryana
Jharkhand
Delhi
Chattisgarh
BJP
BJP
10
INC
AAP
BJP
10
UPA
BSP
BJP
INC
IND
INLD
Total
Total
11
Total
14
Total
10
13
South & east only alliances

Karnataka 50-50. Maharashtra needs consolidation
Andhra Pradesh
Orissa
West Bengal
Maharashtra
BJP
BJP
BJP
NDA
31
YSRC
16
BJD
15
AITC
24
UPA
15
TDP
10
INC
CPM
13
Others
INC
CPI
INC
Total
48
TRS
Others
Others
Others
Total
21
Total
42
Total
42
Tamil Nadu
Karnataka
Jammu
Himachal Pradesh
BJP
BJP
12
ADMK
19
INC
13
DMK
13
BJP
BJP
JD(S)
Others
Total
Total
Total
28
Total
39
14
Continue to attract anti-incumbency votes

2009 vote share
16 States
2014 vote share
Voter Movement from 09 to 14
BJP
INC
New Voter
19%
25%
12%
BJP
33%
81%
22%
37%
INC
20%
6%
55%
15%
NOTA
5%
3%
4%
15%
15
Work to be done for majority (1/2)

Total
Seats
09 vote
share
09 seat
share
14 vote
share
14 seat
share
Net Gain
in Votes
Net Gain
in Seats
418
17%
76
33%
178
16%
102 (76)
Uttar Pradesh
80
18%
10
41%
47
23%
37 (23)
Bihar
40
14%
12
34%
15
20%
3 (14)
Rajasthan
25
37%
62%
25
25%
21
Chhattisgarh
11
45%
10
61%
11
16%
1 (4)
Haryana
10
12%
44%
32%
7 (2)
Delhi
35%
36%
1%
3 (3)
Uttarakhand
34%
48%
14%
State
16 States
16
Work to be done for majority (2/2)

Total
seats
09 vote
share
09 seat
share
14 vote
share
14 seat
share
Net Gain
in Votes
Net Gain
in Seats
418
17%
76
33%
178
16%
102 (76)
Andhra Pradesh
42
4%
9%
5%
Tamil Nadu
39
2%
12%
10%
2 (2)
Karnataka
28
42%
19
41%
12
-1%
-7 (11)
Maharashtra (SHS)
48
35%
20
46%
33
11%
13 (15)
West Bengal
42
6%
11%
5%
Orissa
21
17%
14%
-3%
1 (1)
Jharkhand
14
28%
43%
10
15%
2 (4)
Jammu
33%
55%
22%
Himachal Pradesh
50%
61%
11%
State
16 States
17
Hindi belt: Alone or Electoral Understanding

State
BJP vote
share
Alliance Status
Party &
Vote share
What do the prospective alliance

partners voters think
Seat gain
Uttar Pradesh
41%
Electoral
BSP 26%
Understanding
27% BJP / 35% INC
Bihar
34%
Electoral
JD(U) 21%
Understanding
21% BJP / 54%INC
+ 11 seats
Rajasthan
62%
Go Alone
Chhattisgarh
61%
Go Alone
Haryana
44%
Pre Poll
50% BJP / 14% INC
No gain
Delhi
36%
Go Alone
Uttarakhand
48%
Go Alone
HJC(BL) - 8%
18
Explore alliance options

State
Andhra Pradesh
Tamil Nadu
BJP vote
share
Alliance Status
Party &
Vote share
What do the prospective alliance

partners voters think
Seat gain
9%
Pre Poll
TDP - 21%
58% BJP / 21% INC
+2 seats
Pre Poll
MDMK 1%
68 % BJP / 14% INC
+2 seats
Pre Poll
ADMK - 29%
62 % BJP / 10% INC
+ 5 seats
12%
Mr. Yedurrappas impact yet to be examined
Karnataka
41%
Go Alone
Maharashtra
33%
Stay SHS
West Bengal
11%
AITC - 43%
14% BJP / 33% INC
Orissa
14%
BJD - 45%
36% BJP / 6% INC
Jharkhand
43%
Post poll
JMM - 12%
14% BJP / 32% INC
Jammu
55%
Go Alone
Himachal Pradesh
61%
Go Alone
SHS 13%
No gain with
Marandi
19
MESSAGE
BJP Message: Inflation, Jobs & Governance

Importance of issues
44
Price rise
27
Corruption
25
Jobs
13
Poverty
10
Women Safety
10
Electricity
Healthcare
Terrorism
Law and Order
Roads
Clean drinking water
Minimum Support Price
Water for irrigation
Reservations
Secularism
National Security
Change
0
0
0
0
-4
+1
+1
+1
-1
+2
0
0
0
0
-1
+1
Figures in %
Association with BJP

30
Price rise
27
Corruption
25
Jobs
Poverty
19
Electricity
18
Healthcare
17
Terrorism
17
Roads
17
Women Safety
16
Law and Order
15
Clean drinking water
14
Minimum Support Price
12
Water for irrigation
12
Reservations
10
National Security
10
Secularism
21
Narrow cast segment specific messages

Figures in %
Top 5 Important issues by major demographic segments

Youth
Young
Importance
Price rise
BJP
43
Women
Importance
34
Price rise
BJP
43
Importance
30
Price rise
BJP
45
29
Jobs
29
31
Jobs
26
26
Corruption
25
25
Corruption
27
31
Corruption
26
27
Jobs
24
24
Poverty
13
22
Poverty
Women Safety
11
20
Electricity
19
Poverty
10 18
Women Safety
12
13
18
11 16
OBC
Importance
Price rise
BJP
43
31
Corruption
25
27
Jobs
25
26
Poverty
14
20
Electricity
10
20
22
Advocate literacy, NPS, schemes for women &

children & literacy
Awareness
Benefit
Conversion%
Total literacy campaign
49
32
65%
MNREGA
67
44
66%
Schemes for school children
69
44
64%
Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana
48
Direct Cash Transfer
Schemes for women and girls

Indira Awaas Yojana
National Pension Scheme
Right to Information
30
32
63%
20
60
35
50
56
20
63%
58%
30
60%
33
59%
11
55%
Land Acquisition Bill
26
14
54%
Food Security Bill
27
15
56%
23
Modi image: Change agent, pro-people and experienced

administrator
Scandals, controversies could hurt trust
Narendra Modi
Importance %
67
66
61
58
56
53
52
46
45
44
40
40
34
32
24
Is honest
Someone I can trust
Has experience
Respects all religions

Will bring change
Works for poor
Will fight for people like me
Knows how to run a government
Will stop terrorism
Is decisive
Rahul Gandhi
32
19
37
16
18
35
12
16
28
10
20
30
10
15
24
11
16
27
14
15
11
24
12
24
12
10
23
12
Can handle a crisis
20
11
Understands the country and its people well
19
11
10
Is a role model
17
Compassionate yet tough
16
Self-made
None
12
24
WoM critical : Engage people who matter

Advertise in TV & Newspaper
Source of Information for political news
Family
78
TV
Family
81
71
Friends & Colleagues
60
Newspapers
52
Radio FM
24
Religious leaders
24
Magazines
23
Leaders in my caste/community
23
All India Radio
20
Local party leaders
19
School teachers & doctors
13
Social workers
11
Local government officials
Figures in %
Influencer of political opinion
Cinema
News on the internet
Blogs & Social networking websites
Friends & Colleagues
60
Local leaders in my area
35
Elders in the area
32
Religious leaders
13
Community leaders
12
My social network
School teachers & doctors
Social workers
Local government officials

None
2
8
25
VOTERS
17%
Churning our base and building our swing
Reach
32%
Will vote for BJP in 2014
09 share
2014 Vote
Party Favourability
Leader Favourability
2009 Vote
2014 Vote
Party Favourability
2009 Vote
27
89
3
99
68
9
Swing 2
35%
Swing 1
18%
2014 Vote
Party Favourability
2009 Vote
Will not vote for BJP in 2014
Base
15%
100
92
53
0
100
97
2014 Vote
Party Favourability
2009 Vote
56
100
Base, Swing & Reach voters derived from Past voting behaviour, 2014 intended vote, Party & Leader favourability
27
Continue to convert swing: OBC & Youth

Consolidate: Young & Women voters
Base
Swing1
Swing2
Reach
Young
OBCs
16%
15%
32%
31%
17%
18%
36%
35%
Women
Youth
15%
11%
35%
16%
30%
28%
34%
32%
28
SEC
13% 9%
Youth: Single and ready to go
23%
Male
Female
Hindus
Muslims
Others
41
Nuclear family
Nuclear family with elders
Joint family
Single/Siblings/Others
32%
11%
30%
85
SEC A
12
SEC B
SEC C
SEC D
SEC E
28%
55% till senior secondary

29
22
31% are from Blue collar HH
32%
8
40
Rural
Urban
Married
Married with kids
Single
Other
BSR within Youth
59
Forward
SC
ST
OBC
22%
Base
Swing 1
Swing 2
Reach
26% are students.
74
26
Major SCs (24%)
10
Major STs (2%)
Major OBCs (48%)
Chamar
17%
Gond
8%
Yadav
7%
Mahar
6%
Bhil
6%
Teli
2%
40
Dusadh
5%
Mina/Santhal 4%
Others
91%
38
Others
72%
Others
48
41
2
21
1
78%
29
Candidate matters, Jobs is the core issue

Importance
Price rise
BJP
23%
Figures in %
Impact of NaMo
Reason for voting
Top 5 Issues
27%
24%
36%
43
34
Jobs
29
31
Corruption
27
31
Poverty
13
22
Women Safety
11
20
6%
49%
Local Candidate
Top 3 Sources of Information

TV
76%
Family
76%
Newspapers
62%
Top 3 Sources of Influence

Family
81%
Friends
61%
Local Leaders
35%
Media
89%
use Mobile phones
80%
watch TV
67%
read Newspapers
39%
read Magazines
13%
access Internet
34%
Party
Leader
More Likely
Less Likely
No Change
DK/CS
Visit by party workers/politicians

20%
9%
18%
54%
More than twice a year
Only around elections
Once or twice a year

Never
30
OBCs: Better life seekers

18 24
25 34
35 45
Above 45
BSR within OBCs
11
26
25
15%
38
Male
Female
Hindus
Muslims
Others
7%
18%
18%
52
48
24%
85
33%
35%
14
2
Rural
Urban
Nuclear family
Joint family
18%
31%
Base
Married
Married with kids
Single
Other
SEC
Swing 1
Swing 2
Reach
SEC A
SEC B
SEC C
SEC D
75
25
6
86
8
52% did not attend school
1
44
66% are from agri-households
18
38
1
31
SEC E
Sh. Modi could persuade this segment

Poverty is the core issue
Importance
Price rise
BJP
22%
28%
28%
43
32%
31
Corruption
25
27
Jobs
25
26
Poverty
14
20
Electricity
10
20
7%
50%
Local Candidate

Family
79%
TV
69%
Friends
61%

Family
83%
Friends
62%
Local Leaders
37%
Figures in %
Impact of NaMo
Reason for voting
Top 5 Issues
33%
Party
Media
82% use Mobile phones
Leader
More Likely
Less Likely
No Change
DK/CS

22%
8%
18%
70% watch TV
55% read Newspapers
34% read Magazines
5%
access Internet
53%

Never
32
SEC
18% 8%
18%
Women: Struggling home-maker

18 24
25 34
35 45
Above 45
Hindus
Muslims
Others
25
25
32%
35%
SEC A
SEC B
SEC C
SEC D
SEC E
16%
87
10
3
56% are unschooled
34%
30
22
7
Base
41
Rural
Urban
Nuclear family
Joint family
15%
40
Forward
SC
ST
OBC
Married
Married with kids
Single
Other
24%
BSR within Women
10
Swing 1
Swing 2
Reach
67% are homemakers
73
Major SCs (25%)
27
6
87
5
1
48
Major STs (2%)
Chamar
19%
Gond
7%
Mahar
5%
Bhil
6%
Dusadh
5%
Mina
4%
Others
71%
Others
83%
Major OBCs (49%)

9%
Yadav
91%
Others
16
35
1
33
Address rising prices

Top 5 Issues
Importance
Price rise
BJP
45
25
25
Jobs
24
24
Women Safety
28%
29%
31%
29
Corruption
Poverty
21%
Figures in %
Impact of NaMo
Reason for voting
13
6%
18
51%
34%
11 16
Local Candidate

Family
80%
TV
69%
Friends
59%

Family
84%
Friends
58%
Local Leaders
33%
Party
Media
78% use Mobile phones
Leader
More Likely
Less Likely
No Change
DK/CS

8%
24%
16%
72% watch TV
49% read Newspapers
29% read Magazines
3%
access Internet
52%

Never
34
SEC
Young: Struggling Spouse

Male
Female
16% 10%
20%
BSR within Young
53
47
22%
16%
Hindus
Muslims
Others
86
12
Nuclear family
Joint family
SEC B
SEC C
SEC D
SEC E
17%
41% are unschooled
30
22
36%
48% till senior secondary
41
Rural
Urban
Married
Married with kids
Single
Other
SEC A
Forward
SC
ST
OBC
32%
32%
Base
72
Swing 1
Swing 2
Reach
35% are CWEs
28
Major SCs (25%)
8
82
9
Major STs (2%)
Major OBCs (48%)
Chamar
21%
Gond
8%
Yadav
8%
Mahar
5%
Bhil
5%
Teli & Kappu
2%
Dusadh
5%
Mina
5%
Others
88%
Others
69%
Others
82%
1
45
19
35
1
35
Jobs
Top 5 Issues
Importance
BJP
22%
Price rise
43
26
26
Corruption
26
27
Electricity
12
25%
28%
30
Jobs
Poverty
Figures in %
Impact of NaMo
Reason for voting
7%
19
50%
35%
10 18
Local Candidate

Family
78%
TV
75%
Friends
60%

Family
81%
Friends
61%
Local Leaders
36%
33%
Party
Media
86%
use Mobile phones
77%
watch TV
61%
read Newspapers
36%
read Magazines
7%
access Internet
Leader
More Likely
Less Likely
No Change
DK/CS

21%
9%
19%
52%

Never
36
MEDIUMS
Mobile & Traditional media dominate

Media Penetration & Usage
14% use SMSs (Use IVR & Voice to target)
82%
use Mobile phones
73%
watch TV
60% watch News channels, 55% GECs, 49% Movie channels

9% watch only Doordarshan channels: SEC D& E
All segments can be reached by cable/satellite TV
56%
read Newspapers
Language Newspapers have the highest readership

67% of Youth, 55% of OBCs, 61% of Young, 49% of Women
32%
read Magazines
Language magazines have high readership but low penetration amongst our target voters.
Principally urban one out of every three youth, young and women voters
5%
access Internet
37% use PCs/Laptops/Notebook for accessing internet

67% for Email
97% have account on Facebook, 66% on Twitter and 63% on YouTube
68% of internet users (5%) access internet through mobile phones
38
Morning News and evening prime-time

Time slots
GECs
News Channels
Movie channels
Morning
15%
34%
9%
Afternoon
20%
19%
23%
Evening
65%
48%
68%
% of TV-accesing households who watch only Doordarshan
15
20
SEC A
SEC B
SEC C
SEC D
SEC E
39
Door to door canvassing will convert

Door to door outreach by party workers and politicians
Which political party has visited in the past?
SEC D and SEC E voters complain of not being visited by party
INC is ahead of BJP in out-reach
workers or politicians
Never
INC
68
BJP
SEC A
11
17
47
26
SEC B
19
45
26
SEC C
SEC D
SEC E
19
15
15
51
56
59
21
20
21
64
BSP
29
SP
15
AITC
CPM
JD(U)
RJD
NCP
40
ACTIONABLE SUMMARY
Definite momentum for the party but still work to be done in

Actionable
battleground
statessummary: Battleground states
UP: Consolidate gains in Harit Pradesh and Awadh. Continue to build in Purvanchal &
Bundelkhand. SP is the weakest link with BSP being the main competitor. Electoral
understanding with BSP could consolidate our Base & Swing. Need to track the movement of
the Muslim vote from SP to BSP/INC. Need for credible candidates
Bihar: Gains in eastern Bihar need to be consolidated. A possible RJD-LJP-INC alliance
could gain at the expense of BJP. JD(U) is losing ground, however a BJP-JD(U) pre-poll
alliance could dominate in the state. Need for credible candidates
Delhi: Seeing the AAP effect. Will gain significantly. Candidate selection will be the key
Maharashtra: Gains in Konkan and Vidarbha, weak in Desh and borderline in Marathwada.
Karnataka: High unfavourability for KJP and BSY. Congress and BJP neck-to-neck
Regional parties continue to dominate in key states: Explore alliances
Tamil Nadu An alliance with ADMK will result in gains

Andhra Pradesh TDP alliance only showing marginal gains
Orissa BJD dominates
West Bengal AITC dominates
42
Sh. Modi making an impact in the Hindi belt and Karnataka
Purvanchal could gain from his presence

Brand Modi should be about an honest, experienced and a trusted administrator
Soften decisiveness to avoid mistaken as authoritarian
Scandals & controversies to be handled carefully
Focus on the BJP proposition strongly contrasting the performance of UPA
Campaign focus around inflation, jobs, governance and poverty

alleviation
Muslims churning from our base but gaining from traditional voter
Segment specific messaging a must to convert swing voter
Base voter is a young to middle aged, middle class, forward caste household
Swing voter 1 is a young lower-income OBC nuclear family from agri-households
Swing voter 2 is the youth voter who is single student or a new worker from a blucollar household
Women showing support for the party. Need to address inflation emphatically.
Senior women leaders to support Sh. Modi in the campaign
Family, friends and elders strongest source of voter influence. Local

advocacy with influencers would pay dividends
Door to door voter contact a must for voter mobilization. Not only by local
candidates but demonstrated through party leadership also
Mobile is a high penetration media for direct communication but predominantly voice
Cable Television an effective medium. News in the morning prime-time is an
opportunity to be exploited
Newspapers more trusted in the lower income groups. Magazines, primarily
urban and limited in reach and influence
Internet low in penetration but high in engagement and influence. FB, Twitter
and YouTube dominant channels
THANK YOU

PSB BJP Pulse of The Nation

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Pulse of the Nation:

January 17, 2014: Confidential. For limited circulation only.

PENN, SCHOEN & BERLAND

418 Parliamentary constituencies across 16 states

Robust methodology to ensure quality

- Select states divided into regions

Delhi, Orissa &

Representative of voter population

Till Senior Sec.

From Census 2011

From Joshua Report

From NSSO and Census 2001

Socio-Economic spread of the sample

PENN, SCHOEN & BERLAND

A large number of voters are unschooled and living in

Till Senior Secondary

Graduate and above

PENN, SCHOEN & BERLAND

A change agent will gain mind-share

40% Youth optimistic

Hope from the future

56% Muslims complimentary

PENN, SCHOEN & BERLAND

Grassroots mobilization and candidate will matter.

Reason for voting

Has a clean image

Have always voted for the party

Expected to form the government

My community is supporting the party

I am voting against a particular party

I agree with the partys view on most issues

From my local area

Has done good work in my constituency

Has an important position in his/her party

PENN, SCHOEN & BERLAND

Momentum for the BJP and Sh. Modi

RaGa more favourable than the party

Sh. Modi consolidating traditional base

More likely to vote for BJP

More likely to vote for BJP

Less likely to vote for BJP

Muslims moving away from the party

Currently at about ~ 102 + 76 seats for 16 states

PENN, SCHOEN & BERLAND

Hindi belt UP, Bihar, Delhi

PENN, SCHOEN & BERLAND

South & east only alliances

PENN, SCHOEN & BERLAND

Continue to attract anti-incumbency votes

Voter Movement from 09 to 14

PENN, SCHOEN & BERLAND

Work to be done for majority (1/2)

PENN, SCHOEN & BERLAND

Work to be done for majority (2/2)

PENN, SCHOEN & BERLAND

Hindi belt: Alone or Electoral Understanding

What do the prospective alliance

27% BJP / 35% INC

21% BJP / 54%INC

50% BJP / 14% INC

PENN, SCHOEN & BERLAND

Explore alliance options

What do the prospective alliance