CISM01: Intelligence System for Management

Submitted to:
Dr. Valentina Plekhanova,
CISM 01 Module leader,
Department of Computing, engineering and technology.

By,
Ravi Kiran Reddy M.S
bf80uy@student.sunderland.uk

Student no: 099086543

DESCRIPTION OF THE PROBLEM:

A person wants to buy a new car but he is facing some confusion in selecting the car as he was worried
about the mileage, performance interior design of the car and the cost of the car and overall satisfaction
over the car. So the person has selected some cars based on some factors, which can be given in this
way

Ø If the car performance is good he goes for more than £10,000

Ø If the performance is bad and the interiors are adequate then he goes for around £6500-
£8000

Ø If the interiors are moderate and he don’t have satisfaction over the car then he will afford
less than £6500 pounds

Ø If the interiors are moderate and the customer has complete satisfaction on the car the
goes for £8000-£10,000

Ø If the performance of the is not good and the interiors are not according to his
expectations then the amount he will spend on that car will be less than £ 6000 pounds
NEED OF INTELLIGENT SYSTEM

In today’s competitory business world to achieve the best efficiency and monetary value advantage,
management must expertise available amongst the organization or the system not only concentrating on
the system resources (here system refers to an organization or any institution). Intelligent system ease
to acquire , preserve, extract, use, represent and implement the knowledge , which is available
externally as well as internally

In any organization, managers take the decisions, they are decision makers. Managers take many
decisions everyday and they change their decisions day to day in accordance to attain certain goals and
tasks. In all organizations all the resources are utilized effectively and efficiently by the managers to
enhance the productivity. Here the ability of managers is tested and to bring good profits to the
organization. In forecasting, using resources, modelling problems, creating scenarios etc. Managers
make use of some analytical tools for efficiency and cost advantage.

In making decisions analytical tools help the managers but they don’t serve in managing important
expertise which are in the organization. In such cases intelligent system (IS) are best to be applied.
They help to represent, extract, preserve, acquire, implement and use the knowledge in the system and
make the system intelligent

Intelligent System Techniques survey and intelligent systems Design:

Intelligence is the system capability to task appropriately in indecisive environment where a suitable
action enlarges the possibility of success. Success is the main achievement of activities of sub goals
which carries the system important goal. Because the intelligence of human is totally based on both
rules or knowledge of laws and the direct culture access the truth it by means it complement each other,
explanation of intelligent learning are follows,
Supervised learning technique identifies the desired actions and learning objectivise like a teacher
feedback and in uncontrolled learning technique there is no feedback provided and the purpose is to
find the useful and correct functions on the source of trial & error and self organization process like
inactive observer.
In supervised learning technique rule classifiers and decision trees belongs to the logical algorithms but
single and multi layered observations belongs to the perception techniques. Static learning algorithms
consists of Bayesian network and naive bayes classifiers. Lazy learning and K nearest neighbour is
ordered based learning and the new supervised machine learning techniques are super vector machines.
An unsupervised learning technique contains the following aspects:
• Association Rules
• Hierarchical K- means clustering
• Orthogonal partitioning clustering or O- cluster.

The technique to solve this kind of problems is decision tree algorithm. It’s a good generalization for
on observed instance, if only the instance is described in term of characteristics that are related to target
of concept. The main result of decision tress provides the representation of conception which appeal
human as it show the difference in self-evident process.
The general rules of Inductive learning are produced by the set of reasoning examples. Here some rules
are applied for new examples where as there is assurance for the correct result.
Deductive learning has additional rules which are produced by analysing the set of known facts and we
can get the guarantee result here.
Inductive learning is totally based on knowledge which can built primary from learner’s interactions
and experience. The learners are very confident to raise the questions and to observe the pattern to
make simplification from observation. Inductive learning has some close relationship with instruction
method which is called as learning cycle.
Deductive learning is fewer productivities and it is based on the idea of higher prearranged presentation
to create the best possible learning for students. If the instructors using the deductive approach to
propose a general method by defining mainly and then to provide examples for an idea to demonstrate.
Where the example do not fit with idea then it is helpful for detaining the idea. They have provided
opportunities with the help of instructor guidance and feedback. In this learning they have been already
commenced to idea in their lecture and they concentrate on something that they taught theoretically and
known already.

Representation of the objects must be shown like graphs of a decision trees, neural & Bayesian
networks, group of elements like matrices and fuzzy logic sets
The Technique chosen

Formal statement of the problem:

In this case the problem is related to person choosing a car in the budget and he needs to have
satisfaction on the performance of the car . the above table shows some details and train of cars in
taking a decision over the car. The decisions here are based totally on the car’s performance and the
interiors and the cost which the person is ready to afford. Here the decision are made on the following
basis if the performance is good he goes for over £10,000 , if the performance is bad and the interiors
are adequate he goes for £6500-£8500, if the satisfaction is low even though the interiors are moderate
he goes for less than £6500, if the interiors are moderate and the satisfaction is high he will afford
£6500-£8500, if the performance is bad and the interiors are inadequate he will afford less than £6500.
So based on the analysis made, by using a decision tree the customer can be shown the right car to opt

Applying Decision tree to the problem.

There are different attributes like performance, interiors and the customer satisfaction
First selecting one of the attribute among the attributes finding the entropy and then finidng out the
gain for each instance gives out the perfect value

From the above calculations, we can see that interiors attribute is chosen as the first node. interiors
instance consists of inadequate, adequate and moderate.
Moderate part in the interiors is taken 1 . S = {1, 2, 10} that are price of 6500-9000, less than £6500
st
Mod

this is not empty.

Secondly, S = {3, 7, 8, 9} even this is also not an empty one which means this is as same as
Adq

inadequate in interiors. Now we need to calculate the Gain values (S , performance) and Gain (S ,
Mod Mod

customer satisfaction). First of all, Entropy (S ) = 0.918. then Next, set S as

Mod S = {1, 2, 10}.
Mod

Except customer satisfaction and performance all the other elements are omitted & gain is computed
for performance and for the customer satisfaction.
Gain (S , performance) = 0.918 - (|S |/|S|)*Entropy (S ) - (|S |/|S|)*Entropy (S )
Mod good good bad bad

= 0.918 - (1/3)*0 - (2/3)*0 = 0.918

Gain (S , Customer satisfaction) = 0.918 - (|S |/|S|)*Entropy (S ) - (|S |/|S|)*Entropy (S )
Mod high high low low

= 0.918 - (3/3)*0.918 - (0/3)*0 = 0.918 - 0.918 = 0

By implementing decision tree technique of information gain and entropy and to the data the solution to
the problem is obtained.

Decision Tree:
Decision tree technique which is similar to tree where each branch gives out new branches in the same
way the decision gives a choice amongst number of different alternatives, and the leafs in the
branches in a tree represent a tip and the leaf in the decision tree represents a decision.
This technique is generally used for obtaining information for decision –making purpose . Decision
tree begins with the root node which is for users to perform actions. According to the decision tree
technique the users divide the nodes recursively from the root node. The branch represents all the
possible scenarios and the outcomes and that is the final output or result The final result is a decision
tree in which each branch represents a possible scenario of decision and its outcome.

Entropy:
Entropy can be defines as the measure of lost information. Entropy is obtained from the data and
factors in a problem and the entropy obtained is used to calculate the gain in information which is
frequently used in Information theory
Mathematically entropy is defines as
Entropy(S) = - P (+) log2P (+) - P (-) log2P (-)

+ Positive
- negative

P (+): proportion of ( + ) examples in ‘S’

P ( - ):proportion of ( - ) examples in ‘S’

Information Gain:

Information gain can be determined as the best instance in a problem. Taking the set of samples or
examples it measures and gives out a numerical value and that is optimal solution.
information gain of instance ‘A’, in relative to a set of examples, S, is computed as:
Gain(S, A) = E(S) – Summation of v from 1 to n of (|Sv|/|S|) * Entropy (Sv)

.
Explanation for the intelligent system used.
Ø Decision tree is a very good technique in taking decisions
Ø It gives out the correct decision to managers as it calculates not only numerical data but
also categorical data
Ø This model is very reliable the methods in this model are very effective and efficient in
computing and giving out correct decisions
Over fitting problems in decision trees
In decision tree over fitting is major problem this problem occurs when the data given is perfectly
classified . when the data is correctly classified the branches spread a lot extending to their branches
To avoid Tom Mitchell gave out 2 methods
Ø Before the tree reaches perfection it should be stopped from growing further
Ø Allowing it to grow fully and then remove some branches from it