June 21, 2016

COMPANY
MANAGEMENT

Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd.

REPORT
VISIT
NOTE

NOT RATED

Dotted all i's and crossed all t's!

Nifty: 8,238; Sensex: 26,867

CMP

Rs157

We met Power Grid Corporation of India (POWGR IN). Should POWGR keep up the ante, we will
not be surprised if Govt. accords the company with Maharatna status. Further, increasing
bandwidth of work be it commissioning of worlds longest 800 kV HVDC multi-terminal or
increasing geographical footprint this company has added many feathers to its cap. However,
with 2019-2024 draft regulations due from Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, a doubleedged sword for regulated asset-base model, we discern a cautious tone.

Visit takeaways and Investment rationale

Key Stock Data
Sector

Power

Bloomberg/Reuters PWGR IN / PGRD.BO

Shares o/s (mn)

5,232

Market cap. (Rs mn)

819,070

Market cap. (US$ mn)

12,156

3-m daily average vol.

351,631

Price Performance
52-week high/low

Rs158/121
-1m

-3m

-12m

Absolute (%)

13

12

Rel to Sensex (%)

13

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters

57.9

FIIs/NRIs/OCBs/GDR

26.3

MFs/Banks/FIs

8.5

Non Promoter

3.5

Public & Others

3.7

Relative to Sensex
120
110

Is POWGR on its way to be Maharatna? Arguably, yes. In FY16, POWGR has completed the
highest ever capitalization of Rs317 bn. Further, company has achieved highest ever
commissioning of 13,717 transmission line circuit kilometers. The revenue has surpassed
Rs200 bn plus threshold a critical factor for achieving Maharatna status. With steady-state
stream of revenue, thanks to long-dated infrastructure and regulated-asset base model,
POWGR is on its way to be a Maharatna. This is not to say revenue is the sole parameter.
While ticking few more boxes, we could not deny with the management that POWGR is on its
way to be Maharatna. If accorded, company gains more operational autonomy.
Increasing bandwidth of work: POWGR has achieved commendable feat in commissioning
worlds longest 800 kV HVDC multi-terminal. While making use of South Asian association of
regional co-operation, projects in Nepal and Bangladesh is completed and operational.
Notwithstanding the domestic monopoly, this paves the way for POWGR to don the cap of a
regional player. Further, with 400kV D/C Khammam Nagarjunasagar project commissioned,
TBCB route yields a promising outlook. That said, we are not a big fan of TBCB model. And
here is the reason why: In our observations, the equity IRR for non-regulated transmission
projects across industry is appalling. Yet we do not deny a sweeping generalization can
prove us wrong.
Performance in Non-core sectors: First, consultancy. POWGR is working on 13 different
assignments. Some of them includes: 2nd Block of 1x500MW HVDC B2B Stn. at Bheramara;
CASA-1000 Project; Assignments from ADB & World Bank in Nepal; Trans. Infrastructure
works in Kenya. Second, Telecom. The services in Telecom domain includes: dedicated lease
lines, Internet, MPLS-VPN, Dark Fiber. And the typical clientele includes: Telecom operators,
Government departments and IT companies. In FY16, the income is up by 43%. The total
order book is Rs21 bn.
Is POWGR the best way to play the power value chain? Perhaps, Yes. We draw comfort from
stable business model. As storm clouds loom around over private power companies saddled
with debt, discom reforms and power generation moving at a tepid pace, Power Grid
ostensibly assures a non-volatile business model. With market share over 40%, Powergrid is a
central transmission utility that commands transmission lines in excess of 127,539 kms. Substations are in excess of 248,164 MVA. Being a regulated state-owned enterprise, the scope
of value-addition significantly in excess of cost of equity is limited. Yet at the turbulent times
when rhetoric is not matched with reality, this stands as a bright spot.
Table: Financial snapshot

100
90
80

Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16

70

PWGR

Source: Capitaline

Sensex

(Rs mn)

Year

Revenue

FY13

131,639

106,438

EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj. PAT

80.9

41,309

8.9

17.6

13.1

16.5

8.3

FY14

156,754

126,105

80.4

42,739

8.2

19.2

12.8

14.0

8.0

FY15

176,585

143,004

81.0

44,992

8.6

18.2

12.3

12.3

7.2

FY16

213,523

186,047

87.1

60,146

11.5

13.6

8.9

14.6

9.3

Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research

EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)

Management Visit Note Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd.

So is the outlook positive? Yes. A business model that is bereft of idiosyncrasies solely gains from systemic
moves. Consider this: three systemic moves have made commissioning transmission projects easier: First,
swifter forest clearance process. Second, new guidelines in October 2015 for right of way in compensation.
And third, early recognition to project completion is no longer a myth. Further, the ongoing projects are
Rs940 bn. With new projects of Rs340 bn and TBCB projects of Rs160 bn, the total work in hand is Rs1.44 tn.

Outlook and valuation

Though we have a positive outlook, we do not cover the stock. And hence, we refrain from any valuations and
recommendations.
Risks: Regardless of the systematic risk hovering around Indian energy space, we identify idiosyncrasies that could
spoil the thesis: a) adverse change in tariff by regulators; b) slow pace of existing projects; and c) possible equity
dilution risk with higher debt.
Table: Projects in FY17
Transmission Lines
Gaya-Varanasi, Varanasi-Kanpur-Jhatikara
Pachkula-Patiala; Sikar-Jaipur
Aurangabad-Boisar; Navsari-Boisar; Kala-Kudus
Raipur PS - Wardha-Aurangabad
Dehradun-Baghpat, Roorkee-Saharanpur,
Pasighat Roing Tezu - Namsai
800kV Champa-Kurukshetra HVDC
Aurangabad-Padghe
Mauda-Betul-Khandwa-Indore
Wardha-Aurangabad (1200kV tower)
Ranchi-Chandwa-Gaya
Tiurnelveli-Tuticorin; Tuticorin-Salem-Madhugiri;
Salem-Somnahalli; Madhugiri-Yelhanka
Jabalpur-Orai-Aligarh
Wardha-Nizamabad-Hyderabad
Angul-Srikakulam;
Dulhasti-Kishenpur-New Wanpoh
Rajarhat-Purnea
Singrauli-Allhabad-Kanpur; Lucknow-Kanpur
LILOs- Pandiabil (Baripada-Mendhasal); Navi

Sub-station
NP Kunta
Salem (Dharmapuri)
Navi Mumbai (GIS)
Kanpur (GIS)
Pandiabil (GIS)
Rajarhat (GIS)
Saharanpur
Bagpat (GIS)
Dehradun
Betul (GIS)
Chandwa (GIS)
Vemagiri (GIS)
Srikakulam (GIS)
Nizamabad
Roing
Tezu
Namsai
Alipurduar HVDC
Champa HVDC
Kurukshetra HVDC

Inter-regional Capacity
Gaya-Varanasi
Champa-Kurukshetra
Angul-Srikakulam
Wardha-Nizamabad
Biswanath-Chariyali
Alipurduar Agra

Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research

Table: Annual Capex plan forecasted clearly achieved

Planned Outlay between FY12-FY17
1100
Achieved Status

(Rs bn)

FY12-13

FY13-14

FY14-15

FY15-16

FY16-17

200

232

225

226

225

Achieved

Achieved

Achieved Achieved

Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research

Table: TBCB Project details

Project Name
POWERGRID NM Trans. Ltd. (Mar-12)
POWERGRID Vizag Trans. Ltd. (Aug-13)
POWERGRID Unchahar Trans. Ltd. (Mar-14)
POWERGRID Kala Amb Trans. Ltd. (May-14)
POWERGRID Jabalpur Trans. Ltd. (Feb-15)
POWERGRID Warora Trans. Ltd. (Apr-15)
POWERGRID Parli Trans. Ltd. (Apr-15)
POWERGRID Southern I/C Trans. Ltd. (Dec-15)
Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research

Completion
Oct-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Nov-17
Jan-18
Apr-19

Annualized levelised
Transmission Charges
(Rs mn)
990
2,310
170
590
2,110
2,900
2,570
3,590

Construction under Progress

1st element commissioned in Dec-15.
Construction under Progress
Construction under Progress
Construction under Progress
Construction under Progress
Construction under Progress
Construction under Progress

Management Visit Note Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd.

Figure: Investment led Asset Growth

Figure:Led to consistent increase in ISTS Infra

300.0

250.0

250.0

200.0
196.1

150.0

174.3
149.8

100.0

150

200.0

184

167

150

120.8
100.0

50.0
80.6

120.8

149.8

118.3

93.0

FY13

FY14

FY15

255.3

231.7

205.9

164.8

124.5

50.0

0.0
FY12

200

150.0

96.7
63.4

250

207

192

50

100.2

106.8

115.6

129.4

0.0

FY16

0
FY12

Gross Fixed Assets (Rs bn)

Gross Fixed Assets + Work in Progress (Rs bn)

FY13

FY14

TL ('000 ckm)

FY15

FY16

X-fm ('000 MVA)

S/S Nos.

Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research

Figure: Revenue grew by 19% CAGR over five years

Figure: Profit after tax mimicked a similar growth.

7.0

213

6.0

6.0

178

5.0

157
(Rs bn)

(Rs bn)

Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research

230
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50

133
108

5.0

4.5

4.2

4.0

3.3

3.0
2.0
FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY12

FY16

FY13

FY14

Figure: and thrust on capitalization led in project

efficiency.

(Rs bn)

400

399
340

319

177

191

FY16

Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research

Figure: CWIP management

156

FY15

Profit after tax

Total Revenue
Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research

450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

100

215

210

300
200

164

129

100

150%

141%

97%

86%

318

218
172
130
178

200

50%

159
232

225

226

FY12

FY13

FY14

Const. Stroes and Advances

Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research

FY15

FY16

CWIP (Installed)

100%

69%

73%

0%
FY12
Capex

FY13

FY14

Capitalization

FY15

FY16

Capitalization-capex ration

Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research

Management Visit Note Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd.

Financial summary
Profit & Loss Account

(Rs mn)

Year-end: March
Net sales

Cash Flow Statement

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

131,639

156,754

176,585

213,523

Pre-tax profit
Depreciation

Growth (%)

Year-end: March

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

55,892

60,509

58,251

75,874

35,923

42,342

53,161

63,022

(10,826)

(18,114)

(13,579)

(15,728)

26.1

19.1

12.7

20.9

Operating expenses

(25,201)

(30,650)

(33,581)

(27,476)

Tax paid

EBITDA

106,438

126,105

143,004

186,047

Chg in working capital

20,565

31,554

22,559

6,036

CF from operations (a)

116,897

152,225

158,001

129,203

(241,258) (307,124) (258,677)

(23,219)

Growth (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest paid

29.5

18.5

13.4

30.1

(34,278)

(40,794)

(51,733)

(63,022)

72,160

85,311

91,271

123,025

(25,994)

(32,537)

(40,812)

(50,860)

Other income

9,727

7,735

7,792

3,708

Pre-tax profit

55,892

60,509

58,251

75,874

(14,630)

(18,114)

(13,579)

(15,728)

26.2

29.9

23.3

20.7

Net profit

41,262

42,395

44,673

60,146

Adjusted net profit

41,309

42,739

44,992

60,146

33.4

3.5

5.3

33.7

4,630

5,232

5,232

5,232

Tax
Effective tax rate (%)

Growth (%)
Shares o/s (mn nos)

Balance Sheet

(Rs mn)

Year-end: March
Net fixed assets

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

978,426

1,243,207

1,448,723

1,408,921

Investments

5,864

Current assets

4,234

2,196

2,196

Chg in investments
CF from investing (b)

(23,219)

Equity raised/(repaid)
Debt raised/(repaid)

1,629

6,019

148,780

149,862

120,238

(96,243)

(2,964)

(3,765)

Dividend (incl. tax)

(2,961)

(2,962)

CF from financing (c)

99,619

137,121

Net chg in cash (a+b+c)

(4,325)

22,955

63,988 (100,009)
(19,858)

5,975

Financial Ratios
Year-end: March
Adj EPS (Rs)

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

8.9

8.2

8.6

11.5

Adj EPS growth (%)

33.4

-8.4

5.3

33.7

EBITDA margin (%)

80.9

80.4

81.0

87.1

Pre-tax margin (%)

42.5

38.6

33.0

35.5

ROE (%)

16.5

14.0

12.3

14.6

ROCE (%)

8.3

8.0

7.2

9.3

(20,543)

(20,543)

72,457

95,157

87,038

122,726

Asset turnover

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Leverage factor

3.8

3.9

3.9

3.7

Net margin (%)

31.4

27.3

25.5

28.2

Net Debt/Equity

2.5

2.3

2.4

1.9

Inventory days

15

17

15

14

Receivable days

41

38

46

48

1,405

1,505

1,726

2,555

7,137

7,390

8,482

Sundry Debtors

14,914

16,183

22,070

28,211

Cash and Bank

26,789

49,744

29,886

35,861

Loans and advances

25,224

22,093

27,693

50,172

1,061,361

1,325,470

1,517,415

1,513,300

Working Capital & Liquidity ratios

Payable days
Share capital

1,873

(17,129)

5,531

Shareholders' funds

2,039

(220,840) (266,391) (241,847)

4,614

Inventories

Total assets

Capital expenditure

Turnover & Leverage ratios (x)

Other non-curr assets

264,031

346,979

384,387

440,768

46,297

52,316

52,316

52,316

Valuations

Reserves & surplus

217,734

294,664

332,071

388,452

Year-end: March

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

Total Debt

692,334

842,196

962,434

866,191

PER (x)

17.6

19.2

18.2

13.6

Secured loans

663,253

771,132

901,355

811,220

Price/Book value (x)

2.8

2.4

2.1

1.9

PCE (x)

9.6

9.8

8.5

6.7

Unsecured loans

29,081

71,064

61,079

54,971

Curr Liab & prov

104,996

136,294

170,594

206,342

EV/Net sales (x)

10.6

10.3

9.9

7.7

Current liabilities

97,028

126,387

158,831

192,302

EV/EBITDA (x)

13.1

12.8

12.3

8.9

7,968

9,907

11,763

14,040

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

797,330

978,490

1,133,028

1,072,533

1,061,361

1,325,470

1,517,415

1,513,300

57

66

73

84

Provisions
Total liabilities
Total equity & liabilities
Book Value (Rs)
Source: Company; IDBI Capital Research

(Rs mn)

Dividend Yield (%)

Management Visit Note Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd.

Notes

Dealing

(91-22) 6637 1150

dealing@idbicapital.com

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Management Visit Note Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd.

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We or our associates may have received compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months. We or our associates may have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for
the subject company in the past 12 months. We or our associates may have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company
in the past 12 months. We or our associates may have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or mercha nt banking or brokerage services from the
subject company in the past 12 months. We or our associates may have received any compensation or other benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the research
report.
Research Analyst or his/her relatives may have financial interest in the subject company. IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Ltd. or its associates may have financial interest in the subject company.
Research Analyst or his/her relatives does not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of
publication of Research Report. IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Ltd. or its associates may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the
month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report. The Subject Company may have been a client during twelve months preceding the date of distribution of the research
report.
Price history of the daily closing price of the securities covered in this note is available at nseindia.com and economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stock-quotes.