Measuring Integral Earned Schedule (IES)

and Predicting the Project's Final

Completion Duration:
The Application of Kinematics Approach to
Earned Value Management Metrics
Mojtaba Zarei-Kesheh
Moj.ZareiKesheh@gmail.com
zareikm2@lsbu.ac.uk
+44 (0)7828 126738

Presentation for the EVA Europe Geneva 2009

CERN, Geneva - 25
25Nov
Nov2009
2009
The first annual earned value conference for continental Europe

Objective

Traditional and Current EVM methodologies

Introduce the Integral Earned Schedule (IES)
Concept

Develop the Schedule Performance Indicators
and Predictors

Comparison of Different Methods

Copyright Zarei-Kesheh 2009

EVA Europe 2009

TIME IS NOT MONEY

On the whole complex construction projects are
likely to be finished more than six months late, due to
poor time control. (Managing the Risk of Delayed Completion in the
21st Century, CIOB research 2008)

Money: if you leave it, it might actually

accumulate.

Time: expires at a regular and consistent rate
whether you use it or not.
(Keith Pikavance, President of CIOB, conference 2008).

Copyright Zarei-Kesheh 2009

EVA Europe 2009

CPM or EVA?

CPM: The most reliable method to predict the
projects time dimension (Fleming & Koppelman)
 CP analysis as a predictor: too time-consuming &
incapable of providing early warning signal due to
its retrospective nature.

C/SCSC & ANSI/EIA 748:
 These standards do not define the analysis to be
performed on EVM other than to state cost and
schedule variances need to be computed.
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EVA Europe 2009

Traditional EVM Data Relationship

Physical % Complete
In current project

Activity Duration
In project baseline (PMB)

BAC

Performance % Complete

EV

AC

CV

CPI

Schedule % Complete

PV

SV

Data Date
(DD)

SPI

BAC = Budget at Completion

PV = Planned Value
EV = Earned Value
AC = Actual Cost
CV = Cost Variance
CPI = Cost Performance
Index
SV = Schedule Variance
SPI = Schedule Performance
Index
BASIC
INPUT
DATA

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DERIVED
DATA

EVA Europe 2009

SV & SPI in Primavera P6!

SV = EV - PV

SPI = EV / PV
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EVA Europe 2009

Two Different EV Camps

THE BUDGET-BASED CAMP
(Traditional EV Schedule Metrics:
Budget-based)

THE TIME-BASED CAMP

(21st Century EV Schedule Metrics:
Time-based)

SPI() = EV / PV

SPI(t) = ES / AT

SV() = EV PV = ?
At completion (For late finish project):

At completion (For late finish

project):

 SPI() ends up at 1!
 SV() ends up at 0!
Schedule Variance in units of budget make

 SPI(t) does not creep toward 1

 SV(t) does not creep toward 0

no sense!
They behave erratically for projects behind
schedule.

SV(t) = ES AT = Time delay

Schedule Variance in time units

Copyright Zarei-Kesheh 2009

EVA Europe 2009

Integral Earned Schedule (IES) Camp

Integration of Time & Cost

The idea is to identify the point in time where the area
under planned value curve (AUPV) equals the current area
under earned value curve (AUEV).

Integral Earned Schedule (IES) looks at when the
current AUEV was to be accomplished.

The area under PV and EV curves can be computed
using integral approach (trapezoidal rule).

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EVA Europe 2009

Integral Approach (Trapezoidal Rule)

EV % or PV%

EV(ATn-1)%

EV(ATn) %

ATn-1

ATn

Time
(Periods)

ATn% - ATn-1%

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EVA Europe 2009

IES Metrics and Indicators calculation

Calculate cumulative values of AUPV% and AUEV%
using Integral Approach (Trapezoidal Rule)

Now other calculations is similar to ES calculation! In
Lipkes ES Calculator:
Substitute PVcum with AUPV%cum
Substitute EVcum with AUEV%cum
Substitute ES with IES
Substitute SV(t) with SV(IES)
Substitute SPI(t) with SPI(IES)
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Integral Earned Schedule (IES) Formula

IES cumulative =
Whole time (months or periods) completed for AUEV% AUPV% +
Fractional Time Completed (I)
IEScum = X + [(AUEV%t AUPV%x) / ( AUPV%x+1 AUPV%x)]
(x = whole time (month, period,..) earned ; x+1 = month or period following; t = Time
Now)

Indicators:

 Schedule Variance (IES):

SV(IES) = IES AT

 Schedule Performance Index (IES):

SPI(IES) = IES / AT
where: AT: Actual Time

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Prediction Terminology
Prediction
Method

Anbari

Jacob

Planned Value Rate

Earned Duration

Lipke
Earned
Schedule

Zarei
Integral Earned Schedule

IEAC(t)ED1 =
PD + AT (1 -SPI)
IEAC(t)PV1 =
PD - (SV/(BAC/PD)) After PCD:
IEAC(t)ED1 =
AT (2 - SPI)

P.F. = 1

IEAC(t)ES1 = IEAC(t)IES1 =
AT + (PD - ES) AT + (PD - IES)

IEAC(t)ED2 = PD / SPI
IEAC(t)PV2 =
PD / SPI

P.F. = SPI

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After PCD:
IEAC(t)ED2 = AT / SPI

IEAC(t)ES2 =
PD / SPI(t)

Copyright Zarei-Kesheh 2009

IEAC(t)IES2 =
PD / SPI(IES)

EVA Europe 2009

Analogous ways to think of integration of

time and money (IES)

For labor-intensive projects IES (our integration of time
and money) is analogous to estimating work in terms of
staff-hours;

Thus: the work duration is estimated by the number of
staff available

More people-less time, less people-more time;

So the value of the work is the product.

IES: the same approach in EVA analysis;

The product of time and money (PV, staff) defines
work scope;

The product of EV and time is the work completed.
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Real-life Project Data

The Real-life Project:
 Reporting 100% complete as of Jul 2009
 2,208 million pounds contract
 Planned Completion Date = Feb09
 Actual Completion Date = Jul09
 5 Periods Slip

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Schedule Variance Comparison

SV(IES)cum
SV(EAS)cum

SV(t)cum

Target SV

SV()cum

Zarei

2.0

500
0

Periods

0.0
-2.0

-500

-4.0

-1000

-6.0

-1500

-8.0

-2000

-10.0

-2500
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Time (Periods)
The SV(t) starts to show the
real final delay from 97%
completion point!
Incapability in providing the
real final delay in early /
middle stage of project.
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At period 30, or the 50% completion

point, the SV(IES) shows the more
reliable and consistent SV trend, it
correlates very well. SV(IES) predict
also the final delay at this point
reliably!
Copyright Zarei-Kesheh 2009

SV(IES): always normal &

consistent trend
SV(t): upward and
downward trends!
inconsistent trend
EVA Europe 2009

Schedule Performance Index Comparison

SPI(IES)cum
SPI(EAS)cum
Zarei

SPI(t)cum

SPI()cum

Target SPI

1.20
1.10

Index Value

1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Time (Periods)
SPI(IES): always overall normal & consistent trend
SPI(t): always overall abnormal & inconsistent trend: Look at the upward and
downward trends! Ooops! So confusing for PM!
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Schedule Variance

SV():
Expressed in pounds units;
 in the vertical direction

SV(t):
Expressed in time units
in the horizontal direction

SV(IES):
Expressed in time units
Consider both vertical and horizontal direction
(integration of time and cost together), then looks at
horizontal direction
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Final Duration Predicting Comparison

P.F. = 1

IEAC(t)PV1
Anbari

IEAC(t)ED1
Jacob

IEAC(t)ES1
Lipke

IEAC(t)
IES1
IEAC(t)EAS1

Planned Duration

Final Duration

Duration (Periods)

Zarei

Look at the upward and

downward trends! So
confusing for PM!

62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Physical Percent Complete

From 30% Completion point, IEAC(IES1): higher accuracy than others, consistent
Early Warning Signal behavior / trend, correct final duration
Other methods: abnormal, aberrant and inconsistent behavior / trend
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Final Duration Predicting Comparison

Duration (Periods)

P.F. = SPI,
SPI(t),
SPI(IES)

IEAC(t)PV2
Anbari
IEAC(t) IES2
IEAC(t)EAS2
Zarei

90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45

IEAC(t)ED2
Jacob

IEAC(t)ES2
Lipke

Planned Duration

Final Duration

Look at the upward

and downward
trends! No
consistency!

Seeing is believing!

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Physical Percent Complete

From 13% Completion point (early stage), IEAC(IES2): begins to show accurate and reliable
prediction; consistent behavior and trend, the most accurate result, correct final duration. This is
consistent and reliable EARLY WARNING SIGNAL!
Other methods: abnormal, aberrant and inconsistent behavior / trend specially in early stage.
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IES Summary

Time & Cost Integration for assessing and measuring schedule
performance and predicting final duration;

IES: Integration of both time and cost together;

Unique characteristics of the area Under Planned Value curve
(AUPV) and area under EV curve (AUEV) in Real Projects (not
applicable for artificial and unrealistic projects);

SV(IES):
normal & consistent trend from early stage of project;
capability to predict real final delay of project (Early
Warning Signal); CONSISTENCY AND ACCURACY

IES method:
consistent, stabilized and correct predictive behaviour from
the early stage of project (Early Warning Signal).
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IES Summary

Project Managers do not need the predictive results at the late
stage of project

At the late stage, PM cannot take corrective action; everybody is
aware of delay

IES method claims to predict correct final duration from early
stage. Useful info for PMs! That is called: Early Warning Signal!

IES method:
 provide consistent results (real final delay, final duration) from
early stage; CONSISTENCY AND ACCURACY
advance programme control;
give opportune time to project planners and PMs to take
corrective action.

The other methods do not have this capability!
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Thank you to ...

Mr. Ray Stratton PMP, EVP
for his book that motivated me to walk in EVM world; also
for his technical advice during my research on EVM/IES;

Prof. Mario Vanhoucke
for his constant encouragement during my IES research;

Mr. Walt Lipke
for his technical advice during my work on ES
implementation in Thameslink Programme (London) and for
use of ES Calculator.

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Thank you to ...

EVA Europe Geneva 2009, CERN

L to R: Kym Henderson, Walt Lipke, Mojtaba Zarei-Kesheh,
Stephan Vandevoorde , Prof. Mario Vanhoucke, Prof. Pierre Bonnal
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References

Anbari F. (2003) Earned value method and extension. Project Management
Journal

Fleming, Q. et al. (2005) Earned value project management, 3rd ed, PMI

Jacob, D. (2003) Forecasting project schedule completion with earned value
metrics. The Measurable News (March)

Jacob, D. et al. (2004) Forecasting project schedule completion with earned
value metrics revisited. The Measurable News (Summer)

Lipke, W. (2003) Schedule is different. The Measurable News (March)

Lipke, W. (2009) Project duration forecasting a comparison of earned value
management methods to earned schedule. The Measurable News (Issue 2)

PMI-EVM Practice Standard, (2005), PMI

Vanhoucke, M. et al. (2006) A simulation and evaluation of earned value
metrics to forecast project duration. J Oper Res Soc

Vanhoucke,
M. et al. (2006) comparison of different project duration
forecasting methods using earned value metrics. International Journal of Project
Management 24
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