ABSTRACT

Name

: Wirda Andani

NPM

: 140610120052

Title

: Predictability

Analysis

of

Unprecedented

Restlessnessas Strong Indicator For Rice Crisis of

2008 in Senegal
Advisor

: Yuyun Hidayat, Drs., MT

Co Advisor

: Titi Purwandari, Dra., MS

This study aims to examine the predictability of Unprecedented restlessness as a

strong indicator of the rice crisis with visibility of five years and use the rice crisis
of 2008 in Senegal as a testing data, which is secondary and obtained from FAO
and the World Bank. The best forecasting methods to predict the value of
restlessness is Artificial Neural Networks with (1-6-1) model. This model is
chosen based on the smallest MSE building and testing from the other model, and
the forecast value of restlessness forms in interval each year. The result of the
highest and the lowest forecast form into 100 scale representing the forecast each
year. Moreover, the scales are randomly selected to form a single restlessness
path. To detect Unprecedented at each value of restlessness on the path, the CY
algorithm is used, where each value of restlessness on the path is compared with
UCL. Based on the results of CY algorithm, there is a year indicates proportion
more than sixty percent of the Unprecedented Restlessness which is 2008,
meaning that there would be rice crisis in 2008. This is similar with the actual data
of the rice crisis occurring in Bangladesh on 2008. Therefore, this study concludes
that the Unprecedented Restlessness is predictable using is Artificial Neural
Networks with the visibility of five years for data-testing in Senegal.
Keywords:

Predictability,CY Algorithm, Unprecedented Restlessness,

Restlessness