Preface

A general consensus is that the precession of equinoxes is best explained by the lunisolar
wobble theory. Although, this lunisolar model shows the basics of the Earths wobbling
axes, it requires the presence of solar binary cycle to fully explain a net precession that
results after one Earth orbit. This modified perspective of our solar system lays its claim on
basis that the famous unexplained part of the perihelion precession of Mercury (and all
other planets) can be solved without the need to have a General Relativity explanation if the
Sun is to curve on a binary path. Not just the axial precession and/or anomalous apsidal
(orbital) precession; but other variables of Milankovitch cycles, such as orbital eccentricity,
orbital inclination, can also fit well into binary model.

In addition to the relativistic perihelion precession solution using binary theory, another
way to confirm the existence of our binary solar system is using the analogy of lunar cycles.
Because the Earth-Moon system orbits the Sun, a longer period is required for the Moon to
reach the same visual phase and achieve a similar alignment of Moon and Earth relative to
the Sun [i.e. a longer lunar phase (synodic) cycle than the tropical month]. Analogues to
this, If the Sun-Earth system moves in a clockwise orbit around another star, the period
required to achieve a similar alignment of the Earth and Sun relative to fixed background
stars, i.e. tropical year, becomes shorter than a sidereal year. Furthermore, the difference in
duration cycle of synodic month and tropical month caused by the orbit of Earth-Moon
system around the Sun reaches one in a tropical year, meaning the Earth-Moon system
completes one full 360 orbit around the Sun in a tropical year and not in a sidereal year.
Since a tropical frame defines the Earths position relative to the Sun, a tropical year is a
true measure of the Sun, Earth and Moon re-alignment. Although, difference between the
Moons phases and the sidereal month also reaches one in a sidereal year, it merely signifies
the re-alignment of Earth, Moon and fixed background stars.
Could the lines of evidence presented to support binary cycle help resolve the crisis in our
understanding of climate change? But before drawing any parallels, few aspects of climate
system dynamics are presented with emphasis on global atmospheric circulation and large-
scale ocean circulation. The discussion includes physical processes in the atmosphere and
ocean which contribute to the transport of heat, salt, and nutrients, and the regulation of
climate. Any alterations of the position of global atmospheric and oceanic circulation
systems lead to temperature changes at local and regional level, changes in the global
hydrological cycle, and the expansion and contraction of mountain glaciers, tropical forests,
and sandy deserts. It is widely believed that these changes are a direct or indirect response
to variations in the distribution of polar ice caps. However, due to their importance in terms
of solar radiation receipt and the distribution of heat through global circulation, it is the
tropics, not the poles, act as drivers of global climate change over longer timescales.

This theory examines the potential for orbital influences (mainly precession and eccentricity)
to cause periodic fluctuations, at hemispheric scale, in summertime incident solar energy
leading up to north-south migration of rain band, climate anomalies across various ocean
basins, strengthening and weakening of monsoon, rise and fall of ancient civilizations,
expansion and contraction of glaciers over mid & subarctic latitudes, and intensification
and slowdown of MOC.
Contents
1. Orbital & Rotational mechanics 7

1.1 Keplers first law 7

1.2 Keplers second law 7

1.3 Spin angular momentum 8

1.4 Orbital angular momentum 8

1.5 Torque 9

2. A Year on Earth 10

2.1 Sidereal day 10

2.2 Sidereal Year 10

2.3 Tropical year 11

2.4 Anomalistic Year 13

3. Precession of the Earths Equinoxes 14

3.1 LuniSolar Precession 15

3.1.1 Lunar cycles 20

3.2 Binary theory 22

3.3 Nutation 26

4. Milankovitch cycles 28

4.1 Orbital eccentricity and Orbital inclination 28

4.2 Axial precession 31

4.3 Relativistic precession of perihelion of planets 35

Appendix A Tropical Year and Sidereal Year 43

 Appendix B Anomalistic Year and Sidereal Year 44

Appendix C Tropical Year and Anomalistic Year 45

5. Gravitational Waves 46

6. Effects on Earth & its Climate 49

6.1 Volcanism & Earthquakes 49

6.2 Coriolis Effect, Convection & Earths magnetic field 57

6.3 Ocean acidification 59

6.3.1 Calcification 60

6.3.2 Coral Bleaching and threats to Barrier Reefs 61

6.3.3 Ripple effect on other aquatic species 62

6.4 Coastal hazards and HABs 62

6.5 Global heat distribution and typical tropics 65

6.5.1 Global atmospheric circulation 65

6.5.1.1 El Nino-Southern oscillation 71

6.5.1.2 Indian Ocean Dipole 73

6.5.2 Global ocean conveyor belt 74

6.5.3 Precession driven shift in tropical rain band 77

6.5.4 Climate anomalies and effects on civilizations 80

6.5.4.1 ENSO 80

6.5.4.2 IOD 82

6.5.4.3 Coral Triangle 86

6.5.4.4 Tropical moist forest 87

6.5.5 Long term changes in glacier length and mass balance over mid and
subarctic latitudes 91

6.5.5.1 North Atlantic Oscillation 94

 6.5.6 Atlantic storms and West African monsoon 98

6.5.7 North Pacific Ocean analogy and Asian monsoon 101

6.5.8 Meridional Overturning Circulation 104

7. Conclusion 116

Bibliography 117
1. Orbital & Rotational mechanics

1.1 Keplers first law

Planets revolve around its parent star in an elliptical
orbit. To be more accurate, Planets and star orbit
around common centre of mass (CM), a point
between two bodies where they balance each other.
Earth does not orbit the exact center of the Sun, but
a point, on line between the center of the Sun and the
Earth, which lies inside the Sun. The closest point of
the Earth to the Sun is called perihelion and farthest
point called aphelion. Due to perturbation with other
bodies, Eccentricity of the Earth changes over time.

1.2 Keplers second law

A line joining a planet and the Sun sweeps out equal areas during equal intervals of time.
Now as the first law states that the planet has elliptical orbit, it is at different distances from
the Sun at different parts in its orbit. So planet has to orbit at higher orbital velocity when is
closer to the Sun and this way it sweeps equal areas in equal times.
1.3 Spin angular momentum
Rotational momentum is a vector quantity that represents the product of a body's rotational
inertia and rotational velocity about a particular axis.

I = moment of inertia = angular velocity

Moment of inertia is equivalent to mass in rotational motion term. It is the resistance of a
rotating body to a change in angular velocity about an axis of rotation. Moment of inertia of
an object with radius r and mass M is given by

=

and angular velocity

=

Angular momentum is a conserved quantity in absence of torque. If torque exists between

two bodies then it is said to be conserved between two bodies. Earth is not a perfect sphere
instead it has more mass at the equator than poles. As ice sheets melt, more mass is
transferred to the equator. So the distance from the center increases, equatorial bulge
increases and moment of inertia increases. To conserve spin momentum, Earth spins down
it rotation. But in reality this effect is very small (possibly in microseconds).

1.4 Orbital angular momentum

If an object is small when compared
with its radial distance to its axis of
rotation such as a planet orbiting
around a star, then angular
momentum can be expressed as
=
r= radial distance
mv= linear momentum
This momentum is also conserved when there is no net torque on system. In planetary
orbits, the total angular momentum is distributed between the spin of planet and orbital
momentum:
= +

1.5 Torque
When force is applied to a non-rotating object, it will move in direction of applied force but
the situation is different when same force is applied to a rotating object.
=
When object rotates on its axis and force is applied then the object will move in direction of
torque. The direction of torque is determined using right hand rule.

= = =

= Torque
I = moment of inertia
= angular acceleration = d/dt
r = displacement vector
F = applied force to rotating object
As depicted in figure, directional vector of angular
momentum of the wheel would move in Z direction
whereas applied force is in Y-axis.
Torque is an important concept that plays a major
part in axial precession.
2. A Year on Earth

2.1 Sidereal day

Time it takes the Earth to make one rotation around its axis
relative to fixed background stars i.e. 23 h 56 m 04 s. this is
one Sidereal day on Earth.
During this time, the Earth moves approx. 1 along its curved
orbit around the Sun. Therefore, Earth still needs to rotate bit
more such that the Sun is at meridian point again. Hence,
adding 4 more minutes & making it 24 Hrs. This 24 hour day
on Earth is called one Solar day.
Because the Earth revolves anticlockwise (same direction as its
rotational axis) around the Sun when viewed from North, One
Solar day is longer than one sidereal day.

2.2 Sidereal Year

It is the time taken for the Earth to
orbit the Sun once with respect to
the background constellations.
Therefore, when observed from the
Earth, the sun moves along the
ecliptic plane, passing through the
twelve traditional constellations of
the zodiac, and returning to its
starting point. It is equivalent to
365.256363 solar days (@J2000.0).
Though a direct observation is difficult as brightness of the Sun blankets everything in the
sky, the motion is apparent when one views at twilight sky.
2.3 Tropical year
SEASONS ON EARTH
The Earths axis is tilted roughly 23.5 relative to the
Earths orbital plane and because of this we experience
different seasons at different times of the year. There
are times when one of the hemispheres faces the most
extreme of the sun and other hemisphere the least.
These times of the year are called solstices which occur
twice a year. There are also times when both
hemispheres get equal sunlight. These happen when
Earths imaginary celestial equator intersect the ecliptic
plane. And these points mark the Equinoxes.
Currently, solstices occur near the Earths perihelion and aphelion. But in about few
hundred years or so, Equinox points will near the perihelion and the aphelion due to
precession of the Earths axis.

TROPICAL YEAR (OR SOLAR YEAR) it is the length of the time that the Sun takes to return to
the same position in the cycle of seasons, as seen from Earth; for example, the time from
first day of summer solstice to the first day of next summer solstice.
When viewed from a fixed location on Earth at exact time
every day for a year, movement of the sun in the sky traces
figure-eight pattern called analemma. Earths meridian
rotates west to east and completes rotation on its axis
about 24-hours later (one mean solar day). However, the
true sun position, interval
between two successive returns of
the Sun to meridian, varies
through the year due to combined
effects of the Earths orbit and
obliquity. Because the Earths
orbit is not circular but ellipse,
there are times when the Earth
revolves faster than average and times when it is slower than average. This contributes east-
west movement of the Sun. The Earths tilted axis not only adds north-south movement of
the Sun on analemma but is also responsible for east-west movement of the Sun *. The
interplay between the two above mentioned factors results in a figure-eight curve with
unequal northern and southern lobes. Also, since both factors are involved in east-west
position of the Sun, angle between the line of apsides and the line of solstices determines
east-west symmetry of analemma curve. Note that, due to this misalignment between the
apsides and solstices, points on analemma that fall on reference line of longitude occur
within weeks of the solstices (but not on these dates). Current dates when this happen (the
apparent Sun neither leads nor lags the mean Sun) are April 15, June 13, Sept 1, and Dec
25 respectively. The lowest and highest points mark winter and summer solstices with the
earlier being shortest and the latter being the longest day of the year. Also that, the winter
solstice occurs when the Sun is near the constellation Sagittarius and the summer solstice
near the constellation Gemini. Pisces and Virgo coincide the Equinox points. However as
said, constellations of the equinoxes and the symmetricity of analemma will change after few
thousand years due to the effects of axial precession. It is the same reason why Tropical
Year is shorter than the Sidereal Year. Our calendar year is based on tropical year so that it
remains in sync with cycle of seasons.

2.4 Anomalistic Year

An anomalistic Year is the time taken for the Earth to complete one revolution with respect
to the apsidal points (perihelion and aphelion). Wherever we begin an anomalistic year the
Earth will go through the complete cycle of its varying speeds while completing an ellipse
back to the starting position. Like the Sun, other massive bodies of the solar system also
pull the Earth while it is in orbit around the Sun. Because of this, Earths apsides shift on
the Ecliptic in the same direction as its orbit. Due to this orbital precession, an anomalistic
year is longer than the sidereal year.

All different year types described above, anomalistic year and tropical year are mainly
important. Because tropical year helps to determine start of the seasons and anomalistic
year helps to find lengths of seasons.
3. Precession of the Earths Equinoxes
Generally the term procession is used to describe a group of objects moving forward whereas
the term precession is used to describe a group of objects moving backwards. On daily
basis, the stars viewed from the earth are seen to proceed in a procession from east to west
due to the Earths counter-clockwise axial rotation and the earths revolution around the
Sun in counter-clockwise direction.
At the same time the stars can be observed to move slightly retrograde, at a current rate of
about 50 arc seconds per year. This is an observation based on the fixed Earths axial
orientation on ecliptic. But, in reality, stars are fixed and the Earth moves. Thus, orientation
of the Earths axis must be moving westward on ecliptic plane, a phenomenon known as
precession of the equinoxes". This means if spring equinox is a starting point of a tropical
year and the same position for a sidereal year observation, then the orbit completes one
circle around the Sun tracing out the cycle of seasons earlier than a sidereal year.
POSSIBLE EXPLANATION
There are two popular theories that have their own side of explanation as to why we
experience precession of the Earths axis.
1. LuniSolar Precession (wobbling Earth theory)
2. Binary theory
As we go into detail of each theory, we see that one is mirror to the other. One theory alone
is not enough to explain axial precession.

3.1 LuniSolar Precession

LuniSolar precession is Gravitational effects of the Moon and the Sun. Any object spinning
on its axis would not have perfect spherical shape due to centrifugal force of its rotation.
But instead, swollen at its equator and squashed at its poles making Oblate shape. Slower
the rotation of the planet more it becomes spherical. The Earth too is an oblate spheroid
with uneven mass distribution across the planet. The shape of the Earth changes over time
as mountains, volcanoes sink and rise due to the plate tectonics. Because the Earths axis is
tilted approx. 2312 , Earths heavy equatorial bulge does not lie in the same plane as the
ecliptic. Hence, the Sun and moon gravitationally pull the earths equatorial bulge to the
orbital plane.
It is complex and difficult to explain effects of the Sun and moon on Earth. The Moon orbits
the Earth several times a year as compared to the Earths orbit around the Sun. Therefore,
it is simple to explain Suns gravitational effect on the Earth first.

During Equinox-perihelion-Equinox transition, half of the equatorial bulge that is closest to

the Sun remains off-centre (i.e. to the North), and the other half is off-centre to the South.
The gravitational pull on north is stronger and since gravity decreases with distance, this
creates a small torque on the Earth. The direction of this torque is roughly perpendicular to
the Earth's rotation axis so the orientation of the Earths rotational axis moves.

It appears as if North experiences Pull and South experiences Push.

The magnitude of the torque from the sun varies with the gravitational object's alignment
with the Earth's spin axis and approaches zero when it is orthogonal. Orthogonal positions
are near two Equinoxes where equatorial Bulge passes the orbital plane. The Equinoxes
mark the positions where gravitational pull on north equates the gravitational pull on south.

Now during Equinox-Aphelion-Equinox transition, half of the equatorial bulge that is closest
to the Sun is to the South and far half of this bulge is on North. So the gravitational pull on
south gets stronger than north which again creates small torque on the Earths axis. But
during this alignment, North experiences push and South experiences pull.
Furthermore, the Earths distance to the Sun varies depending on the position of the Earth
on ellipse. Thus, gravitational pull is greater when the Earth passes through its orbital
perihelion. It is weaker when the Earth approaches its aphelion. Also varying distance
between the Earth and the Sun means that the Earth is slowest in its orbit at aphelion than
at perihelion according to keplers second law.
During the first half of the cycle, gravitational pull is stronger on north side of the Earth as
the Earth passes through perihelion point. Hence, the torque applied on the Earths axis:
=


The magnitude of the torque is greater here than at aphelion because the magnitude of the
pull is greater. Its value varies in accordance with the change in magnitude of gravitational
pull. However, the Earth revolves faster during this period. So the effect of torque is shorter
than the second half.
At equinox points, Equator intersects the orbit. Thus displacement vector becomes zero
and also the value of torque. In addition, the gravitational pull on north and south remain
the same.
As the Earth enters the second half of the cycle, gravitational pull gets stronger on south.
Due to the earths aphelion passage the magnitude of gravitational pull is lower compared to
the magnitude of gravitational pull in its first half. Hence, the magnitude of torque
generated in this phase of the cycle is lower but is offset by Earths slow orbital speed.
=


Therefore, this non-zero torque generates small
wobble effect in the orientation of the Earths
axis as the Earth orbits the Sun. The vector
sum of all solar induced torques acting on the
Earth at different times of orbit completes the
wobble cycle when the Earth finishes one
revolution around the Sun. Although this
explanation only considers gravitational effect of
the Sun, the same explanation holds true for
the Moon revolve around the Earth. However, unlike the Earths orbit around the Sun, the
Moon orbits the Earth many times over one sidereal year. Therefore, torque induced on
Earth by the Moon has many up and down cycles in one sidereal year as compared to the
one induced by the Sun.
Thus, total torque is the
summation of torque 1 and
torque 2. To avoid difficulty,
orbits are assumed to be
circular. Hence, the
summation will have equal
magnitudes on both sides of
the horizontal axis. Because
the effects are equal on north
and south at the end of an
orbital period, the net torque
becomes zero and no net
precession results after one
sidereal year. Also, as a
change in Eccentricity does not affect the length of orbital period, the net result still remains
the same. What changes is the shape of torque cycle with unequal magnitudes on both sides
of horizontal axis and adjusted lenghts such that total length and net result remain
unchanged.
Due to the fact that orbits are elliptical in nature, the magnitude of torque is stronger near
perihelion and so the precession rate is higher too. On the other hand, the extended length
of aphelion passage equals the amount of precession on each side of the cycle. Thus, the net
result does not change. The figure below surmises a wobbling effect of the Earths axis over
the course of a year (Here, Sidereal Year & Tropical Year are considered to be the same &
the plane of Moons orbit on ecliptic). The effect is exaggerated in illustration but in reality, it
is just a tiny wobble (barely perceptible). This axial wobble effect can be correlated with
similar yet distinct effect called orbital wobble, where two bodies with extreme mass
difference orbit a common barycenter internal to larger body and this larger body is hardly
seen wobbling back and forth.

The rate of precession can be calculated using the equation:

=


=
=
3.1.1 Lunar cycles
Although the Moon is smaller than the Sun, the Sun is further away from the Earth than
the Moon. Therefore, both have a gravitational effect on the Earth. The Earth has different
lengths of a solar day and a sidereal day because the Earth orbits around the Sun.
Furthermore, the Moon orbits around the Earth. Thus, there are also lunar months of
different lengths.

SIDEREAL MONTH

It is defined as the time it takes the Moon to complete one orbit around the Earth, i.e. to go
from "due West" of the Earth, once around the Earth, and back to "due West" again. Or the
time it takes the Moon to pass twice a fixed star. It is about 27.32166 days.

One might think that in a sidereal period, the Moon would go from a New Moon to the next
New Moon. But it doesnt work; in the time it takes the Moon to orbit the Earth, the Earth
itself has moved, so that the Moon isn't between the Earth and the Sun when the sidereal
month is up and, therefore, isn't a New Moon.
SYNODIC MONTH

It is defined as the time it takes the Moon to complete the cycle from New Moon, through
crescent, half and gibbous Moons, to the Full Moon, and back again. It may seem that this
cycle should be the same as the Sidereal month, but once again, its not.

The problem is that as the Moon is orbiting the Earth, the Earth is going around the Sun. A
synodic month is 29.53059 on average. A New Moon or a Full Moon happens when the
Moon passes through the centers of the Earth and the Sun.
A synodic month is longer than a sidereal month and therefore procession can be seen in
New Moon or Full Moons position. Procession results in the Moons cycle because motion of
the Earth around the Sun is counter-clockwise. Analogues to this, a tropical year is shorter
than a sidereal year. Does that mean the Sun orbits clockwise in a binary?

If a sidereal month/year and a tropical month/year were equal in duration, the lunar phase
cycle would synchronize again with its sidereal cycle after the Earth completes 360 orbit
around the Sun .

duration of a sidereal month = 27.32166d, a synodic month has an average duration of 29.53059d.
( )
The beat period = = 365.256, the difference between the no. of completed

sidereal months and the no. of completed synodic months is exactly 1.
3.2 Binary theory
MOTION AROUND THE MILKY WAY
All different types of Star
Systems (Single, Binary or
Multiple) revolve in a nearly
circular orbit around the centre
of galaxy. The Sun also orbits the
centre of the Milky Way. It takes
about roughly 220-250 million
years to complete one orbit
around the Milky Way. The sun
wobbles up and down around the mid plane of galaxy due to a gravitational pull of the disk.

The galactic disk is the plane about few thousand light years across and tends to have more
gas and dust, and young stars. It takes the Sun about 64 million years to complete one
harmonic oscillation. For a small period of few thousand years, the Suns orbit would appear
like following a straight path inclined 60 to the ecliptic. As the Sun progresses in this path,
the motion of the planets would be seen at times ahead of the Sun and at times behind the
Sun.
 HELIX
Curvature is the amount by which an object deviates from
following a straight path. In three dimensions, a curve is
explained by a concept of torsion. The torsion of a curve
measures how sharply it is twisting out of the plane of curvature.
A helix is a space curve for which the tangent makes a constant
angle with a fixed line. The necessary condition for a curve to be
helix is that the ratio of curvature to torsion be constant.

Now, if the Sun is a part of binary then the Sun will have a helical orbit around the Centre
of Mass. A retrograde binary orbit would see the Earth completing its 360 motion around
the Sun before it reaches a sidereal position. A completion of 360 orbit around the Sun
would mean that the torque cycle is completed before sidereal year . The deviation of the
Sun in its binary path results a clockwise shift in the
torque cycle. Therefore, as the solar system moves in a
clockwise binary orbit, torque induced on the Earths axis
at position fixed to the background stars will become
non-zero (meaning that next torque cycle already starts
or either way last torque cycle finishes early). This
nonzero torque signals a switch in vernal equinox
position and thereby marking different lengths of sidereal
year and tropical year.

Also, the curvature changes as the Sun progresses in its orbit. As the Sun nears the Center
of Mass, the curvature becomes larger and thus larger is the change in the torque cycle.
Other way, stars move along the curved path with higher velocities when they approach the
Center of Mass. This justifies why the net precession noted increasing.

Solar torque cycle will now complete in 365.24219d, instead of 365.256363d

Binary motion will also cause lunar torque cycle to be completed in 27.32158d, shorter than sidereal
(27.32166d). Moon induces total of 13.368267 such cycles over Earths one revolution around Sun. Thus, the
torque cycle will now have period equal to tropical year.
A pair of binaries seen orbiting each other around
the Center of Mass. Mass of a star determines the
size of an ellipse and distance from barycenter.
Though both ellipses are different in size, their
orbital periods stay the same. Also, each star has a
distinct yet related semi-major axis such a way that
their eccentricities continue to be the same.
As a whole, both the theories are true in their own reference frames.

LUNIS OLAR PRECESSION theory supports the notion of a torque

induced precession while keeping a reference frame of observation
(fixed stars) the same.
BINARY THEORY supports the idea of a frame locked Earths axial
orientation while changing the reference frame of observation
(fixed stars) with the movement of the Sun in its binary orbit.
3.3 Nutation
DRACONIC MONTH
Among two other Lunar months
being discussed, draconic month
has its own significance for two
reasons. First, it explains why do
eclipses occur and second it is
connected with the Lunar torque
cycle. Moons orbital plane is
inclined about 5 to the ecliptic
and as a result, it intersects the
ecliptic at two nodes. These two
nodes can be classified as the
ascending node, where the Moon moves north after crossing the ecliptic, and the descending
node, where the Moon moves south. Therefore, draconic month can be defined as the
average time interval taken by the Moon to return to the same node of its orbit. Total eclipse
occurs when a full or new moon is positioned at lunar nodes.

Because of Moons orbital inclination to ecliptic, a short term periodic and local
phenomenon arise called nutation. Nutation is often connected or used in conjunction with
precession but both effects are separate. Irrespective of binary cycle, a small set of
oscillations on the Earths spin axis is caused by changing inclination angle of the lunar
orbit to the Earths celestial equator. The Suns gravitational pull on Moon causes the
regression of the lunar orbital plane. Consequently, westward shifting lunar nodes make the
draconic period (nodal period) 0.10944 days shorter than the sidereal month. Due to
backward movements of the lunar nodes, the inclination of moons orbital plane to the
Earths axis varies from 18.29 to 28.58. A direct implication of inclination change is that
Moons gravitational pull on the Earths equatorial bulge will vary in line with this change.
Since the precession of solar system causes
a tropical frame to differ from a sidereal
frame, it takes roughly 18.599 years for
nodes to return to same position relative to
inertial frame and 18.613 years relative to
tropical frame. Thus, if the effect of nutation
is considered with precession, line traced by
the Earths axis would seem up and down
when looked up close.
4. Milankovitch cycles
Named after Serbian geophysicist Milutin Milankovi, the theory explains effects of changes
in Earths orbital parameters upon its climate. Back then it was theoretically predicted that
the Earths periodic climate patterns are due to variations in eccentricity, axial tilt and
precession of the Earths orbit. Such changes are attributed to the Earths gravitational
interactions with the Sun and planets like Jupiter and Saturn. The only purpose of probing
this theory is to look at the aspects of orbital forcing and determine governing mechanism
for these variations. A simple novel approach discussed here is an attempt to incorporate
binary effect on these parameters.

4.1 Orbital eccentricity and Orbital inclination

Orbital eccentricity of the Earth is a measure of
the amount by which the Earths orbit around
the Sun deviates from being circular. A zero
value means circular orbit and any values
between zero and one indicate elliptical orbit.
This is a necessary condition for a stable orbit of
an object around another body if no other forces
acting on it. Conversely, there are always forces
in nature that impact stability of an orbiting
body. The shape of the Earths orbit is elliptic
having a value 0.0167. But the orbit of the Earth appears to undergo eccentricity oscillation
for a reason. Our current theoretical understanding holds that gravitational interactions
with the fields of Jupiter and Saturn are the primary causes for this variation.
However, gravitational perturbations from a companion star may likely be causing a long
term oscillation of eccentricity. A mechanism for triple system known as Kozai cycles
postulates that a companion star, as small as brown dwarf, is capable of perturbing the
orbit of an inner planet over sizeable time scales. It is not the distance but inclination of a
binary companion that perturbs the orbit of a planet. The amplitude of eccentricity
oscillation depends only on relative inclination between orbital planes and is expressed
analytically:

1 (53) 2 0
A necessary condition for kozai effect to take place is to have a relative inclination angle
greater than = 39.2. Furthermore, following value is conserved when perturbing body is
farther out and relatively larger in mass.

(1 2 ) cos
As a consequence, perturbations lead to a resonance between the orbital inclination and
eccentricity of a planet. Seemingly, conservation of above value means that eccentric, low
inclined orbit of a planet can become near-circular in exchange for a gain in inclination.
Moreover, masses and semi-major axes of a planet and companion determine the periodicity
of these variations. The timescale between maximum through minimum and back again is
estimated as

1 3 0 + 1 3
2 (1 2 2 )32
(0 + 1 )

where subscripts 0, 1, 2 denote primary star, planet and binary respectively.

It can be deduced from the above
equation that smaller the mass of a
binary and larger the semi-major axes
ratio, longer will be the oscillation
period. However, in a typical planetary
system like ours, other sources such
as planetary companions also perturb
the Earths orbit. If the period of such
effect is smaller than , oscillation
due to kozai mechanism will be
precluded. Hence, type of binary and
its orbital parameters are important in determining the principal source of perturbation that
triggers instability in the Earths orbit. The ecliptic is not perfectly aligned with the Sun or
with solar systems invariable plane which is roughly the plane of Jupiter. Rather, it is
closely inclined at an angle of 7.15 to the Suns equatorial plane. Due to perturbation, this
inclined plane drifts up and down in relation to eccentricity variation. Yet, orbital energy
and thus semi-major axis of the Earth remain constant during a cyclic exchange of
momentum between the Earth and perturbing body/bodies.
CLIMATE CONNECTION

Earths climate is driven by the amounts of energy Earth receives and the amounts it
releases back into space. Inflow of energy includes radiation received from the Sun and heat
transfer to surface from the Earths interior, of which the Earth reflects back some radiation
in form of low energy infrared waves. Changes in net balance of energy flow affect the
temperature on Earths surface and atmosphere. In principle, the net energy flux is
disturbed by many ways such as changes in suns brightness, variation in incident solar
energy due to changes in the Earths orbit, concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse
gases, presence of low atmospheric clouds. Such alteration in balance caused by radiative
forcing happens continuously as seasons change the ground cover (changes in surface
albedo), concentration of atmospheric gases and aerosols vary (e.g. a volcanic eruption),
sunspot activity varies in cycles. However, on a timescale of tens of thousands of years,
changes in eccentricity and other orbital parameters dominate and affect the Earths climate
by changing the amount of solar energy received.
As periodic variations in eccentricity changes the shape of orbit from near circular to mildly
elliptical, the difference in solar irradiation reaching the Earth near perihelion and aphelion
increases. It also means increase in radiation intensity difference between NH
summer/winter and SH summer/winter if solstices occur near the line of apsides. Moreover,
the time spent on aphelion side of the orbit gradually becomes longer and near the
perihelion it shortens. This may cause the global average temperature to fall and start
planetwide cooling trend. Nonetheless, any such effects are counteracted by the fact that the
distribution of land and water on the two hemispheres are unequal. Because of this, the
globe is slightly warmer when farther from the Sun. Reason being is that a larger portion of
SH is made up of water and water cools down slower than land. Whereas there is a lot more
land in NH and land heats up faster than water. So even though there is less intensity of
sunlight near the aphelion (NH summer), the planets average temperature is higher at this
time. Thus, solar forcing due to variations in the
shape of Earths orbit could have smaller impact
alone and a significant one when combined with
other parameters such as precession. So, when
the orbital eccentricity is relatively high and
changes due to precession are considered, any
warming or cooling effects remain largely
asymmetric between hemispheres. Similarly,
during the times of low eccentricity, effects of
precession are reduced and hemispheric
asymmetry in respect of solar insolation tends to
be moderate. It can be inferred that both
hemispheres seem to be inversely correlated when
it comes to changes due to precession, the
severity of their anti-phase behaviour depends on
the eccentricity.
Another climatic effect to eccentricity fluctuation is the differing lengths of seasons. The
lengths of seasons are proportional to the area of the Earths orbit swept between the
solstices and equinoxes. So, when the Earths orbital motion is more variable, i.e., during
the periods of relatively high eccentricity, the lengths of seasons become more
disproportionate. The seasons occurring on the far side of the orbit get substantially longer
in duration as the orbital velocity decreases. Conversely, the Earths orbital motion and the
lengths of seasons become more uniform as the orbit evolves into a more circular path.

4.2 Axial precession

Axial precession refers to a gradual shift in the orientation of the rotational axis of the
astronomical body relative to the inertial reference frame, whereby the axis slowly traces out
a cone. In case of the Earth, it is also known as the lunisolar precession, precession of the
equinoxes or precession of the equator. As pointed out in earlier discussion, the
gravitational forces of the Sun and Moon apply to the Earths equator, attempting to pull the
equatorial bulge into the plane of ecliptic, but instead causing it to precess. Nonetheless,
inclusion of binary in solar system model is necessary to explain one complete precessional
cycle with a period of approximately 25,771 tropical years. A number of noticeable effects
that arise from this precessional component have been covered in this section.
First is the motion of the entire sphere of the fixed stars with respect to the equinoxes or the
solstices when observing the sky from Earth. Over this steady progressive motion, the
positions of stars appear to slowly shift in the direction counter-clockwise in both equatorial
and ecliptic coordinates (see B in the above figure). But, when viewed against the space-
fixed backdrop of stars, the Earths north and south celestial poles move from their current
positions, in a circle around the ecliptic poles, with an angular radius proportional to the
Earths axial tilt (C in the above illustration). A consequence of a slow continuous drift of
the celestial poles through the star field, is the changing identity of the pole stars. A pole
star is the one which lies approximately directly overhead when viewed from the Earths
North Pole or South Pole. While other stars apparent positions in the sky change
throughout the night owing to the Earths spin on its axis and orbit around the Sun, pole
stars apparent positions remain virtually fixed (refer D in the above figure). Therefore, for
observers in hemisphere north or south, the stars appear to rotate from east to west in
circular paths around the Earth or more precisely around the two celestial poles (counter-
clockwise motion around north and clockwise around south). As the Earths poles slowly
precess, the celestial poles trace out circles on the celestial sphere, passing close to different
stars at different times. Thus, over time, stars no longer appear in their proper positions in
the sky as they are today. At present, the north celestial pole is located very close to Polaris
and marks the current North Star position. With over a degree away from the pole, Sigma
Octantis is identified as the closest star to the south celestial pole. However, Sigma Octantis
is a faint star, and hence no southern pole star is as useful for navigation as the bright star
Polaris. Due to precession, Gamma
Cephei in the constellation of Cepheus
will succeed Polaris as the Earths
northern pole star. Sometime around
5200 CE, Iota Cephei in the same
constellation will get the role of North
Star. The brightest star Denab in the
constellation of Cygnus will become the
pole star in about 10,000 CE. Around 5000 years ago, the north celestial pole was near dim
star Thuban in the constellation Draco which served the title of North Star.
In terms of effects on climate, the precession of Earths axis along the ecliptic changes the
way the length of seasons are altered by the non-uniform orbital motion, since different
sections of the orbit are involved. Because the solstices, equinoxes or other seasonally
defined positions move westward relative to the orbit, each season arrives early in the year.
For instance, spring in NH occurs on far side of the orbit and therefore, is longer in
duration. But, over time, NH spring will be in different section of the orbit, causing it to
occur at closest approach. This gradually leads to a shorter NH spring season but in global
terms this is balanced with it being longer in SH. When the Earths apsides are aligned with
the solstices, either spring & summer or autumn & winter will be at its longest. When the
equinoxes and the Earths apsides are aligned, the length of spring and summer together
equals that of autumn and winter. Furthermore, when the South Pole is pointed towards the
Sun near the perihelion, as is the case today, the SH that is in summer at perihelion
receives greater amount of solar radiation. But, the same hemisphere in winter at aphelion
has a cold winter. Thus, the SH has a greater difference between the seasons while the NH
experiences milder seasons. When the North Pole is pointed towards the Sun, the winter
and summer seasonal contrast increases in NH while the SH has a relatively cooler summer
and warmer winter.

4.3 Relativistic precession of perihelion of planets

In addition to the precession of rotational axis, a
line joining the apsides of an orbit of a celestial
body gradually rotates over time. Because of this
progressive motion of the major axis of each
planets elliptical orbit within its orbital plane, the
orbits of planets around the Sun do not follow an
identical ellipse each time. Moreover, for the
planets that are farther from the Sun and have
longer orbital periods, their perihelion shifts
become lower, making their orbits nearly
stationary. In case of the Earth, as the Earth
revolves around the Sun, the orbital ellipse
precesses in space, in irregular fashion and at
much slower rate, completing a full cycle
approximately every 111,597 sidereal years. This form of precession is significantly longer in
duration as compared to the precession of Earths axis and therefore, is a minor component
of two. When these two forms of precession combine, the duration of Apsidal precession is
shortened and takes roughly 20,936 tropical years for the apsides to return to same
positions with respect to the equinoxes and solstices, that is, for the perihelion to return to
same date on calendar that tracks the seasons perfectly.
Among all other planets, the perihelion precession of Mercury is a well-known observed
phenomena of planetary precession. Long before the discovery of this form of precession, it
was found through observation that the line of intersection between the Earths rotational
and orbital planes is not perfectly stationary, but rotates around 360 over a period of about
25770 sidereal years. So, when the astronomers at the time observed the axis of Mercurys
elliptical orbit over a long period of time, reference to line of equinoxes, they expected to find
an apparent precession of about 0.01396 per year, which equals 5025.6 arc seconds per
century, assuming a stationary axis of Mercurys orbit. However, they actually observed a
precession rate of 5600 arc seconds per century for the axis of Mercurys orbit, interpreting
that the axis is not truly stationary. Under Newtonian gravity, elliptical orbits are stable only
for the idealised two-body case, i.e., a two-body system consisting of a lone object orbiting a
spherical mass traces out an ellipse with a spherical mass at a focus. Therefore, when
considered the presence of other planets which perturb one anothers orbit, the gravitational
effects of other planets should contribute an additional 532 arc seconds per century to the
precession of Mercurys orbit. Combined with the precession of equinoxes, this accounts for
5557.6 arc seconds per century, which is close to the observed value of 5600, but still short
by 42.4 arc seconds per century. This anomalous rate (42.4") of perihelion precession of
Mercurys orbit soon became a definite problem as the ellipse of its orbit was rotating faster
than predicted by the traditional theory of Newtonian gravity. Newtons theory of gravity had
been successful before in predicting the existence of planet and dwarf planets beyond the
orbit of Uranus. When newly discovered planet Uranus began to deviate from its course, the
planet that came to be called Neptune was discovered. A number of successful discoveries
based on model of Newtons laws of motion and gravitation led to a proposal that a
hypothetical planet might exist in an orbit between Mercury and Sun. Many attempts to
observe such planet failed to find any sign of it. Several many hypothesis were proposed,
such as large number of small objects, undetected moon of Mercury, unobserved oblateness
of the Sun. A number of heliometric measurements showed that the Sun does not appear to
rotate fast enough to be as oblate to explain observed peculiarities of the Mercurys orbit.
The failure to arrive at a realistic Newtonian explanation for the anomalous (relativistic)
precession led some to believe that perhaps Newtonian theory itself was at fault and would
have to be replaced with another law.
With the development of general relativity theory, Einstein showed that the extra precession
arises from the fundamental principles of general relativity and is explained by gravitation
being mediated by the curvature of space-time. In addition to Newtonian gravitational
potential energy and repulsive centrifugal potential energy, a third energy term, that is
attractive and unique to general relativity, explains the remaining apsidal precession rate of
Mercurys orbit. Perihelion shift due to relativistic effects, expressed in radians per
revolution, is given by
24 3 2
= 2 2
(1 2 )
where is the semi-major axis, T is the orbital period, c is the speed of light, e is the orbital
eccentricity.
In the case of Mercury, is 5.79 x 1010 m, the value of e is 0.205 and the orbital period (T) is
7.6 x 106 s. From these values, it can be calculated that relativistic orbital precession during
one period of revolution is = 5.0094 x 107 radians (or 0.1033 arcseconds). In one hundred
years, Mercury makes about 415 revolutions around the Sun, and thus in that time, the
apsidal precession due to relativistic effects is approximately 42.87", which is in close
agreement with the astronomical observation. Like Mercury, the theory holds true for other
planets as well, with corresponding values matching closely with the unexplained parts of
the observed values.
SOLUTION USING BINARY THEORY

In order to explain this extra precession, proved by GR and missed by Newtonian theory,
one has to relax constraints posed by general relativity theory that the true geometry of
spacetime is a non-Euclidian geometry. Fortunately, under relatively weak gravitational
field, such as the Earths or the Suns, a spacetime metric is approximately represented by
Euclidean. This will allow us to correctly calculate apparent anomalies in precession rate
between observed and that predicted from Newtonian theory using binary model. The
following discussion will show that the unexplained parts of the perihelion precession of
planets are nothing but the result of the Sun curving in a binary orbit. First, we will
calculate the relativistic perihelion precession for Earth using the above equation derived
from general relativity, then we will replicate the result using binary theory. Subsequently,
we will show that the results for other planets achieved using binary theory will also be very
close to the observed values and the ones predicted by general relativity.
Using the values of , e and T of the Earths orbit, the relativistic apsidal precession during
one complete Earths revolution relative to fixed background stars is calculated using the
above equation as = 1.85854 x 107 radians (or 0.038335 arcseconds). To calculate
relativistic effects due to binary, we first find the amount the Sun curves in a binary orbit.

As per the astronomical almanac for the year 2000, the lengths of tropical year, sidereal
year and anomalistic year derived from the Suns mean motion are 365.24219,
365.256363004 and 365.259636 tropical days respectively. The accumulated difference
between tropical year and sidereal year is
=
= 365.256363004 365.24219
= 0.014173 0.014173 24 60 = 20.40912
As we know the Earth completes 360 orbit around the Sun in a tropical year, the amount
solar system curves in binary orbit
360
20.40912
(365.24219 24 60)

= 0.01396958

Suppose, tropical position, sidereal position and perihelion initially share same place in the
orbit and the average distance between the Earth and Sun is 1. But in a one sidereal year,
the Sun moves a total of 0.01396958 in an orbit around binary against the fixed stars.
Thus, adjustment needs to be made in perihelion precession calculation for the planets to
account for the motion of entire solar system on a curved path. So, calculating the amount
that needs to be added due to this angular motion while maintaining that, the angle at
which tropical position deviates from sidereal position is the same as that of the Sun in its
binary orbit
cos 0.01396958 = 0.99999997
The extra amount results from this angular effect and remained unaccounted for during
perihelion precession observations (in radians)
1 cos 0.01396958
2.9723 108 2
= 1.867551169 107
OR
= 1.867551169 107 206265
= 0.038521044
= 0.05 0.0127

= 1.85854 107 0.038335
This shows that the value derived using the relative effects of binary orbit matches closely
with the observed value and that predicted by general relativity theory. Failure to consider
that observations are made in a reference frame (the Sun) moving on a curved path has led
to measurement error in the observed perihelion precession rates. Overall, as the Earth
returns to same position (sidereal position) after one sidereal year, tropical position moves
clockwise by 0.01396958 and perihelion point shifts counter-clockwise by 3.226023806
103 .
RESULT FOR MERCURY
Since the distance between Mercury & Sun and its orbital period are small compared to
those of Earth, the relative strength of this effect would be significantly higher. If we
calculate the factor by which these parameters are in difference with those of Earth,
relativistic precession rate for the Mercurys orbit can be calculated.
( ) = 14.9598023 1010 & = 5.790905 1010
Because this effect is observed at position relative to fixed stars,
= 365.256363004 & = 87.9691
The relativistic effect on Mercurys orbit due to Suns binary path
14.96 365.256363
= 1.867551169 107
5.79 87.97
= 2.003497192 106
= 2.003497192 6 206265 = 0.413251348
Mercury completes 4.1521 orbit around the Sun over one sidereal orbit. Therefore,
1
= 0.413251348 = 0.099528274
4.1521
= 0.1033
RESULT FOR VENUS
= 14.9598023 1010 & = 10.8208 1010
= 365.256363004 & = 224.701
The relativistic precession rate of Venus orbit due to geometric effect
14.96 365.256363
= 1.867551169 107
10.8208 224.701
= 4.19698598 107
= 4.19698598 107 206265
= 0.086569131
Venus completes 1.625521751 orbit around the Sun over this period. Therefore,
1
= 0.086569131 = 0.053256
1.6255
= 2.57 7
= 2.568736237 7 206265 1.625521751
= 0.086126706 arcsec
Based on the elements of the planetary orbits, we can construct the following table of
relativistic precession.
Appendix A Tropical Year and Sidereal Year
Because the Sun curves through space 0.01396958
per year in a binary orbit, from the Earths perspective,
the Earth completes 360 orbit around the Sun at
tropical position and 360.01396958 revolution around
the Sun relative to fixed stars. We can use this
information to calculate the time for one complete
precession cycle of Earths rotational axis.

When the Earth returns to sidereal position after one

year, it has revolved a total of 360.01396958 around
the Sun. Therefore, relative to sidereal position, the
number of years it takes for cycle of seasons to return
to same position
360.01396958
= = 25,771.28085
0.01396958
However, when viewed relative to fixed tropical position, it appears as if sidereal position is
moving in counter-clockwise circular path. Based on the fact that the Earth completes 360
orbit at tropical position, the number of years it takes for sidereal position to return relative
to fixed tropical position,
360
= = 25,770.28085
0.01396958
Alternatively,
= 365.24219 & = 365.256363004
365.256363004 365.24219
= = = 9,412,759.044
365.256363004 365.24219

9412759.044
. = = 25,771.28082
365.24219
9412759.044
. = = 25,770.28082
365.256363004
Appendix B Anomalistic Year and Sidereal Year
Time it takes for Earth to complete one full 360 orbit
around the Sun = 365.24219 d
= 365.259636
= 365.256363004
=
= 365.259636 365.256363004
= 0.003273
Angle at which the apsidal line precesses in its orbit
360
= 0.003273 = 3.226023806 103
365.24219

Since the Earths revolution around the Sun at sidereal position is 360.01396958, the
number of years it takes for the line of apsides to be back again at same position in its orbit
relative to background stars,
360.01396958
= = 111,596.8112
3.226023806 103

However, the Earth orbits a total of 360.017195603 (360.01396958+0.003226023806)

around the Sun at perigee position and hence, relative to apsides, the number of years it
takes for sidereal position to return to same perigee
360.017195603
= = 111,597.8112
3.226023806 103

Alternatively,
365.259636 365.256363004
= = = 40,761,810.63
365.259636 365.256363004

40761810.63
. = = 111,596.8112
365.259636
40761810.63
. = = 111,597.8112
365.256363004
Appendix C Tropical Year and Anomalistic Year
After a complete 360 orbit around the Sun at tropical position, the Earth needs to revolve
an extra 0.017195603 (0.01396958+0.003226023806) in its orbit to reach the perigee
point. Thus, relative to apsides, the number of years it takes for cycle of seasons to return to
same apsidal points
360.017195603
= = 20,936.58452
0.017195603

Because the Earth completes 360 orbit in tropical frame, the number of years it takes for
moving apsides to return to same position relative to equinoxes
360
= = 20,935.58452
0.017195603
Alternatively,
365.259636 365.24219
= = = 7,646,923.614
365.259636 365.24219

7646923.614
. = = 20,936.58351
365.24219
7646923.614
. = = 20,935.58351
365.259636
5. Gravitational Waves
All bodies with mass emit
gravitational waves in a
Space-Time fabric as they
move. The amount of energy
being carried in form of
GWs depends on bodys
mass and change in
velocity. A higher rate of
change in velocity also gives rise to the frequency of GW. A massive moving object emits
more powerful gravitational waves due to the fact that more number of particles involved.
Faster the body moves, high energy gravitational waves are emitted due to an increase in
energy of particles. In a binary star system, a more
massive star emits low pitched gravitational waves and
its less massive companion emits high pitched
gravitational waves. As binary stars approach each
other, their respective velocities increase and as a
consequence, emitted GWs are of greater frequency and
power. As compared to other types of radiation, these
waves yet remain hard to detect because of their
strength. Figure illustrates how GW parameters change
over the evolution of binaries. Gravitational waves carry
away orbital energy of the stars and because of this,
their orbits shrink over time. Consequently, Orbital
distances of the binaries decrease over the evolution of the stars and thus the orbital period
decreases according to keplers 3rd law. This increases velocities of the binaries and since
the frequency of GW is proportional to a change in orbital velocity, the frequency increases

A pitch can be perceived differently even at a constant frequency. In general terms, a pitch and a frequency
are used interchangeably.
as the orbits of the stars shrink. Also, there is a loss of orbital angular momentum ( = )
due to orbital energy loss. Furthermore, Wave power increases even more as binaries near
periapsis point. It is so because total energy of a wave is proportional to the square of
Amplitude, and amplitude is determined by number of particles and energy of individual
particle. A variation in intensity of Gravitational Radiation results over a complete binary
orbit.
TYPES OF WAVES
Mechanical Waves are waves which propagate through a material
medium (solid, liquid, or gas) at a wave speed which depends on
the elastic and inertial properties of that medium. There are two
basic types of a wave motion for mechanical waves:
Transverse waves are like
electromagnetic waves where
oscillation occur perpendicular
to the direction of travel.
Transverse waves cannot
propagate in a gas or a liquid
because there is no mechanism
for driving motion perpendicular to the propagation of the wave.

Longitudinal waves are waves

that have the same direction of
vibration as their direction of
travel, which means that the
movement of the medium is in
the same direction as, or the
opposite direction to, the motion
of the wave. Longitudinal waves are also called compression
waves. Any particle in a medium is subject to compression and
expansion as longitudinal waves pass through it.
GRAVITATIONAL WAVES TRANSVERSE OR LONGITUDINAL?
According to quantum theory, in the first ten- millionths of a second after the Big Bang; the
universe was hot enough and all matters acted more like liquid. The universe initially filled
with a liquid primordial soup. The hypothetic gravitational particle would have acted the
same way. The first of four forces to separate was Gravitation. Since the gravitational force
separated first, relic Gravitational waves would also have been created in the time of
inflation epoch. Since the early universe was more like liquid, only longitudinal waves could
travel in liquid. As particle interactions began and temperature cooled, the universe
crystallized.

According to Einsteins GR theory, presence of mass warps the space-time fabric. An

accelerating mass emits Gravitational radiation in space-time continuum. If even a moving
object radiates GWs then space-time fabric must not be vacuum. Rather filled with large
density of minuscule substance or field that forms space-time geometry. And if matter is
made of same substance then surrounding substance become distorted and stretched where
matter is formed. This changes geometry of space-time in the vicinity of mass forming
gravity well. The existence of such a medium becomes so obvious when searching for
gravitational radiation. Could natures most mysterious force remain so because it radiates
energy longitudinally in form of gravitational waves (a.k.a. space-time wave or ether wave)! If
that is the case then GW energy may cause the universe to expand uniformly in all
directions from the radiation source. Also, a more convincing solution to a problem as to
why the expansion does not slow down due to the gravity of everything it contains, can be
possible without the need of other dark concepts.
6. Effects on Earth & its Climate
Earth and possibly all other planets in our solar system go through cycle of geological and
climate variations as a result of Binary orbit. The Earths climate is the main driving force
for a diverse ecosystem between the geographic poles we see today. Any change in climate
would largely disturb the Earths fragile ecosystem. There are evidence of past climate
variations and ecological imbalance during the period. Climate change is caused by various
external and internal factors. External factors include natural variations such as Earths
orbital parameters, solar energy output, volcanic eruptions; and human induced like CO2
emissions, deforestation. While past changes were only attributed to natural factors, current
changes are combination of human influenced and natural ones. Though human carbon
footprints draw a considerable amount of input towards this change, these are second only
to natural contributors that arise because of binary orbit.

6.1 Volcanism & Earthquakes

STRUCTURE OF THE EARTH AND THEORY OF PLATE TECTONICS

Though processes that slowly but continuously change the face of the Earth are not fully
understood, these processes, known as plate tectonics, are ascertained to originate in the
Earths deep interior. The structure of the Earth is comprised of several concentric layers
with a spherical solid core at its centre. These layers are formed by density difference, which
happened early in the Earths history. When the Earth was hotter and almost in fluid state,
dense elements separated from lighter ones under the influence of gravity and sank deep
within the Earth. Lighter elements ascended and settled towards the surface. Since its
formation, the Earths core is cooling and progressively growing due to outward transfer of
heat.

The Earths core mainly consists of nickel and iron and is divided into two parts: solid inner
core and liquid outer core. Dense inner core has great pressure that squeezes metal together
and acts more like a solid even at extreme temperature, because melting temperature
increases with pressure. However,
pressure strong enough to be like solid is
absent in outer core, so it is a low viscous
fluid at high temperature. Convection cells
in the outer core largely influence the
Earths magnetic field. The mantle
consists of lithophile elements such as
Magnesium, Thorium, Potassium,
Uranium, and Aluminum. Solid though,
rocks within the mantle behave more like a plastic due to high temperature. Also, density
differentiation and the fact that pressure increases with depth subdivide mantle into upper
mantle and lower mantle. Lower mantle is more solid than the upper mantle, thus it flows
less easily and has higher viscosity. Mantle convection is what causes tectonic plates to
move around the Earths surface since subducting crust is also a critical factor in the
process. Finally, the outermost layer is a much thinner relative to other layers and has two
types- oceanic crust and continental crust. Both crusts are composed of solid rocks formed
from magma cooling and have significant lower density than the material of the upper
mantle. In comparison to the continental crust, oceanic crust has higher concentrations of
heavier elements and thus is denser. Besides, the oceanic crust is thinner than the
continental crust. These two factors together contribute to the lower relative elevation of the
ocean floor than the continental crust. The Earths crust (continental and oceanic) is not a
single solid plate but is divided into several large tectonic plates.

The motions of the plate tectonics are caused by transfer of heat through the mantle
convection. Heated rocks deep within the mantle rise to higher levels because they become
less dense. This upwelling process continues to drive materials higher levels until they
become cool and dense enough to sink back down. Down-welling of the mantle rock begins
when it loses some of its heat to subducted ocean plate within, and becomes denser than
the rocks below. Convection cells are formed in areas where mantle material is up-welled
and down-welled. Similar convection process is also present in outer core as hot iron rises
and relatively cool core metals descend to balance the flow. Heat that powers these
processes in the Earths interior comes from mainly two sources: primordial heat, leftover
from the early planet formation and density differentiation, and second, radiogenic heat
released by the decay of unstable isotopes distributed in the crust and mantle layers.
Primordial heat bound to the planets core generated by the process of accretion and
friction. At an early stage of planet formation, materials collided and clumped together
which transformed their kinetic energy into thermal energy. Once accretion heat initiated
differentiation of heavier and lighter elements, friction between falling dense materials and
rising low density materials resulted in some gravitational potential energy converting into
heat. Heat transfer takes place as upper outer core materials lose some of its heat to mantle
and become dense. Nonetheless, about half the Earths internal heat is generated by
radioactive nuclides in the crust and mantle. Earths mantle and crust are enriched in
elements that bond readily with oxygen, forming compounds that remain concentrated in
these layers. Since all radionuclide are lithophile elements and the fact that the Earths core
contains elements that mix freely with iron, decay process is restricted to the crust and
mantle.

Heat, generated in the mantle (radiogenic) and transferred from the core (primordial), is
conducted outward to the surface by convection currents. The movements of tectonic plates
across the Earths surface are due to boundary layer forces such as frictional drag, slab pull
and ridge push that act in response to convection currents in the mantle. Plates in motion
do not exhibit coherent nature but vary in direction and speed. As a result, plates often
push towards, drift apart or slide past each other. At plate boundary, motion is not
continuous but occurs in a sharp movement due to sudden burst of energy. One such
boundary is a transform fault where two plates move side to side, often locking and then
breaking loose from each other. Apart from the directions of movement of the plates, the
type of Earths crust at plate boundary helps determine response of the Earths crust at the
edge.

When hot, less dense mantle material rises during convection, it begins to expand and cools
slightly. If rock rises far enough, its solidus temperature decreases with decrease in
pressure and will start melting. The process of decompression-melting from upwelling of
mantle drives the plates apart at an existing
plate boundary or forms new spreading
ridge zone (divergent boundary). The gap
formed from the plates separation is filled
by up-welled magma and cause series of
volcanoes along the gap. In general, most
volcanic eruptions at oceanic divergent are
quiet and are difficult to notice despite they
being as large as those on land. Moving
ocean water deep in the ocean quickly dissipate heat away, and increased boiling
temperature of water under extreme pressure keeps ridge volcanoes silent. However,
eruptions on islands formed by rising mountains can be disruptive due to glaciers-magma
contact (i.e. Iceland). Volcanic rocks cool as they drift away farther from the fault line and
create new oceanic crust. As this newly formed cooled crust moves away from the ridge, it
exerts force on splitting plates, aiding
to drive their motions. This force is
called ridge push. If both plates
involved in spreading have oceanic
crust, then its called oceanic ridge.
For the plates of continental origin,
spreading process (rift zone) is
somewhat different. Rising magma
beneath a continent thrusts the crust
upward, causing the crust to be stretched. This dome shaped crust develops cracks and
fractures that draw outward from its centre. As rift continues to widen and crust under the
upwelling region starts melting, fragments collapse into valley created by fractures.
Earthquakes occur along the fault and volcanoes erupt (small stream explosion) in rift zone
as magma rises through fissures caused by collapsing and fracturing of the crust. Since
magmatic rocks on the sides of the rift when cooled get denser, valley floor continues to sink
below sea level to eventually become a new ocean. This way a continent breaks apart into
two separate continents and excess heat is routed outward through a rift valley. The
spreading of a newly formed ocean crust
continues to push two continents away from
ridge axis where seafloor becomes the site of
undersea mountain ranges (mid-ocean ridge).
Consequently, continent-ocean plate boundary
is dragged towards the intra-plate region and is
identified as passive margin. It is called passive
margin because the zone of transition crust
between ocean and continental plates now
resides far from the active divergence with none
or minimal earthquake and volcanic activities.
Furthermore, mid-oceanic ridge activity impacts
sea level along the coastlines. Increased rate of
spreading amplifies deformities in the ocean
floor that displace enough water to raise sea
level. Depressed activity at divergent boundary
causes ridges to shrink and sea water to recede from the continental shelves.

The opposite edge of a plate

involved in spreading may
eventually bump up against
another plate, creating a
convergent plate boundary.
This type of plate boundary is
known to be the plate collision
zone because plates are
pushed against each other.
Colliding plates result in the formation of subduction trenches or high mountain ranges
depending on the type of crust. When two plates supporting continental crust rub against
each other, neither is dense enough to be pulled into the mantle. So, a continued collision
pushes both plates up against each other, compressing and raising high mountain ranges
along the plate boundary. If at least one of the plates has oceanic crust on its plate
boundary and the other plate carries continental or oceanic crust, then oceanic crust (or
older ocean crust if both plates are oceanic) is subducted into the mantle and this type of
converging plate boundaries are called
subduction zones. At subduction zone, a
giant deep ocean valley (aka ocean trench) is
formed in the ocean that marks the exact
spot where ocean floor vanishes beneath the
continental or younger oceanic crust. As
against, at passive margin, a relatively flat
ocean surface prevails after crossing a
smooth transition zone between continent
and ocean. Downwelling ocean lithosphere
(crust, sediments and upper most solid
mantle) at subduction zone was less dense
when millions of years ago formed as a new crust at mid-ocean ridge. This lithosphere
slowly cools, as it solidifies with age and travels away horizontally from active boundary,
conducting heat to the overlying water. By the time it reaches the subduction zone, it has
already exceeded in density over that of mantle material under it. It is when plates collide
and the edge of oceanic plate is bent downward, plate begins to sink easily into the mantle.
This descending slab of a plate, sliding in response to gravity, exerts a force on rest of the
plate pulling the entire plate with it. Thus, not all of the magma upwelling at divergent
boundary is caused by ridge push but also by a gap created when plate plunging into the
mantle elsewhere at subduction zone moves the entire plate away from the oceanic ridge
due to slab pull. While a new oceanic crust is created at divergent plate boundary, old/more
dense oceanic crust elsewhere is destroyed underneath a continental or younger/less dense
oceanic crust at converging plate boundary. As a result, oceanic lithosphere is found to be
much younger (oldest approx. 170 MY) than continental lithosphere.

Also, contrary to divergent boundary, volcanic eruptions are often violent and explosive due
to upwelling magma contain sediments and water. Marine sediments, rocks from the
subducting plate have lower densities, and like continental rocks, they tend to keep afloat as
they get pulled downward by underlying ocean crust. As the oceanic plate dives under the
non-subducting plate, top layers of sedimentary materials from the oceanic lithosphere are
scrapped off by the overriding plate. These accumulated sediments are compressed and
pushed up along the edge of overriding plate, contributing to the formation of coastal
mountains or sedimentary arc islands. Along with a chain of mountains or arcs, a line of
volcanoes are also formed parallel to the subduction zone. When ocean crust and hydrated
minerals in sediments thrust beneath the other plate, much is heated by friction and by the
surrounding hot mantle material. In addition, subducted sediments and crust have high
amounts of water, keeping melting point of these rocks significantly lower than mantle
rocks. Once melting of the crust begins, water and other volatiles are released under specific
pressure and temperature in a process called dewatering. The water released from
descending crust seeps upward into the overlying mantle. This addition of water lowers the
solidus temperature of already hot overlying mantle rock, which then undergoes partial
melting and rises due to its lighter density than that of the surrounding mantle rock. Since
a swelling magma incorporates both subduction and mantle components, it is a highly
viscous flow which also contains gases dissolved under high pressure. As the molten rock
rises towards the surface of non-subducting plate, pressure decreases and this decrease in
pressure expands dissolved gases rapidly,
allowing it to escape. However, the high
viscosity of lava obstructs the release of
gases trapped within it. Pressure continues
to build up as large volume of magma and
gas accumulates from upwelling and it
reaches a critical level where it overcomes
the blockage, leading to violent eruption.
Because of its rich silica content, the outpouring of lava does not run down easily onto the
ground, and thus it solidifies over the years, developing a volcanic mound (blockage).

A GEOLOGICALLY ACTIVE PHASE

Because a large number of volcanoes and earthquakes occur near plate boundaries, any
changes in mantle convection, a main driver of plate tectonics, would affect the relative
motion of the plates along active margins and stimulate these geologic activities. Mantle
convection is a direct result of currents carrying heat from the deep layers of the Earth. So
far, it is understood that mantle is a large reservoir of radionuclide, producing heat through
decay. Changes in radiogenic heat production will have effect on convection currents in the
mantle which in turn, regulate transport of heat to the surface. A higher rate of production
would heat up the mantle that sees rise in decompression melting near ridges as hot mantle
rock forces itself farther up more often. Consequently, an increase rate of spreading would
mean higher sea levels and peak submarine volcanic activities. As a result of mantle
heating, subducting plate at convergent boundary slides deep into the mantle more easily
(lesser friction, and cooler crust suck up mantle heat in larger amount allowing more of a
slab to get pulled in), balancing the increased spreading rate. Concurrently, this fast
downward motion of the plate guides larger volume of sediments and water into the mantle.
Because of this, plume formed from partial melting (dewatering process) covers larger area
in the mantle and poses greater risk of powerful eruption. It is evident that geological
activities along faults are on the rise in recent times and source could lie beneath the
surface. Though largely speculative but activities beneath the surface might have to do with
the Sun. It is not a mere coincidence that geologically active time occurs in tune with the
Suns pericenter approach. Binary stars emit oscillating pattern of gravitational waves over a
short astronomical period. Intensity of GWs reaches its peak when binaries near centre of
mass. Unlike EM wave, GW passes through the Earth almost unimpeded. Passing GWs
squeeze the fabric of space-time and with sufficient energy they change decay rates of
unstable isotopes of various elements. Thus, these transient waves indeed transport energy
influencing radiogenic heat production rate.

SHORT TERM COOLING EFFECTS

Ash particles and gases expelled into the atmosphere during explosive eruptions reflect
sunlight away from the Earth, thus decreasing surface temperature for months. By blocking
the solar radiation, ash clouds appear to temporary offset the effects of long term warming
at regional and local level. Because aerosol particles fall out of air in few months or years
following eruptions, this cooling effect lasts for a small period. In contrast, changes in
climate over longer timescales are dominated by CO2 addition, and solar insolation changes
in response to Earths orbital (and precessional) variations. Since water has high heat
capacity, and large amount of atmospheric CO2 is absorbed by surface oceans, temperature
effect that CO2 has on climate will not be as severe as CO2 influenced surface ocean
acidification.

6.2 Coriolis Effect, Convection & Earths magnetic field

Coriolis Effect is a fictitious force
passed on a moving object in a
rotating reference frame. It is a
fictitious because a moving object
doesnt experience any actual force
applied on it. A body following a
straight path observes an apparent
deviation in its motion when viewed in
a rotating reference frame. Strength of
Coriolis Effect is proportional to frame rotation rate, speed of an object while orientation of
this deflection (westward or eastward) depends on whether the frame is rotating clockwise or
counter-clockwise. A very common example is our home planet. The Earth is rotating
counter-clockwise at a rate of one revolution per day and because of this, anything that
travels from equator to poles or vice-versa can be observed deflecting right in northern
hemisphere and left in southern hemisphere. Coriolis Effect also explains circulating ocean
currents and wind patterns responsible for weather movements.

Moving charged particles generate their own magnetic field. When all magnetic fields are
aligned such that their individual fields do not cancel out one another, a magnet is
produced. The Earths outer core contains molten iron and is so hot that its ionized. In
liquid outer core, less dense heated material rises and more dense iron sinks. This heated
material in outer core loses heat at mantle-core boundary. A similar process follows and
heat transfer takes place to the Earths surface. This entire process is known as Core-
Mantle convection. Convective motions alone are enough to produce large magnetic fields
but different motions would generate different magnetic fields which eventually cancel one
another.

Principally, a combination of both-convection

and coriolis force- is needed to generate a self-
perpetuating planets magnetic field. It is also
widely known as the theory of dynamo. Coriolis
force makes convective motions twist in spirals
which tend to align individual magnetic fields
rather than cancelling out. This way the Earth
forms an overall magnetic field with near
alignment to the Earths geographic poles.
Since a much faster convection in the liquid
outer core generates the Earths magnetic field,
processes in the core affect these field
generating currents. Processes in the core are linked with the processes in the mantle. At
core-mantle boundary layer, intense exchange of heat takes place in direction from the
Earths core into the mantle. The processes in the mantle influence the heat flux at core-
mantle boundary. The mantle heating, in response to increased rate of radiogenic heat
production, limits the heat flow from the Earths core. Though there is a rise in heat
escaping from the mantle, not as much heat generated would be transferred to the surface.
Thus, overall effect would still be heating the mantle. The lower heat flux out of the core
modifies the heat driven convection within the outer core. Consequently, processes in the
core become turbulent and more turbulent motions need stronger coriolis force/faster
rotation rate in order to organize the flow. Since rotation rate remains fairly unchanged,
turbulent flow causes complicated field lines to be tangled and weakened which disturbs the
poles alignment. Weakening magnetic field cant predict reversal however; the Earths
magnetic field undergoes a brief period of geomagnetic excursions. A direct implication of
magnetic field variation is a notable change to cosmic ray flux incident which is thought to
be responsible for carbon-14 production rate.

6.3 Ocean acidification

The cause-effect analysis of climate models gives better insight and predictability on current
and future climate variations. Recently, there has been extensive research studies carried
out in this field by many scientists around the globe. While all researchers share common
viewpoints on impacts of Climate change, they remain divided over causes of climate
change. The sole objective here is not to lean toward a definite conclusion but assessing the
possibilities that natural causes might dominate in changing the climate. Apparent increase
in volcanic eruptions add considerable amount of CO2 into the atmosphere enough to
disturb the biogeochemical cycle. The higher concentrations of CO2 sink in the ocean and
dissolve to establish chemical equilibrium. Dissolving CO2 in ocean water form carbonic acid
(H2CO3) and other carbon compounds, these are then transferred from the surface to the
bottom of the ocean. Chemical reactions increase hydrogen ion concentration, thus change
ocean chemistry and lower ocean pH. Decreasing ocean pH negatively affects many ocean
species and ecosystem. Notable impacts are dwindling calcification rates in marine
organisms, coral bleaching, weakening immune response in some species.
6.3.1 Calcification
With many other ions (including
H+ ions), calcifying organisms
such as oysters, snails, corals
extract calcium (Ca2+) and
carbonate ions (CO3-) from
surrounding ocean water. All
these ions settle into spaces
next to their shells after entering
calcifying tissues. Organisms
consume energy to eject H+ ions
from their body, thus increase
mixing of Calcium ions with
carbonate ions and reduce
tendency of Hydrogen ions to
react with carbonate ions. The
process of forming shells out of calcium carbonate is called calcification. These shell
structures benefit organisms in many ways, including defense against predators, support
for soft tissues. Normally, weathering of rocks on land partially compensates these losses of
carbonate ions in the oceans. Under low CO2 environment, these processes maintain
equilibrium or shift the equilibrium to offset any changes in ocean pH.
As more and more carbon dioxide dissolve into sea water, Hydrogen ion concentration
increases. Thus there is an increase in energy consumption demand in organisms to eject
these increased H+ ions which some organisms find it difficult in disrupted marine food web
due to additional environmental stresses (depriving oxygen condition, diseases etc.).
Moreover, rising acidity level causes free available carbonate ions to bond with hydrogen
ions and form even more bicarbonate (HCO3-). This reduces concentration of carbonate ions
in the ocean, consequently increasing the likelihood of formed calcium carbonate (CaCO3)
structures being dissolved more readily. Not all organisms have shown reduced calcification
rate; few are resilient in acidifying environment due to their shell structure variation.
6.3.2 Coral Bleaching and threats to Barrier Reefs
Corals not only add colors and build marvel like great barrier reefs but also provide habitat
to a large number of marine species. Reefs are largely found in tropical water with fewer
nutrients and are built from calcium carbonate produced by corals. Corals have pigments in
their tissues and others have algae that live within tissues which give them coloration using
photosynthesis.
Discoloration of corals is known as coral bleaching. Many attributing factors occurring at
once trigger such a stress response of corals. These include temperature rise, acidifying
surface ocean layers, loss of coral protective inhabitants. Increased geological activities
transfer excess heat to surface through conduction and convection, yet it contributes less in
Earths total energy budget. However, it is shifting temperature regimes due to changes in
atmosphere and/or ocean circulation that increase the surface temperature regionally and
locally. Fragile coral colonies sensitive to any changes in heat are unable to resist bleaching,
therefore expel the algae responsible for coloration. Expulsion allows these corals to save
some extra time for survival. However, a persistent condition increases their mortality rates.
Also, Warmer oceans reduce viscosity of water, making it easier for abundant nutrients in
sediment to float to the surface. Enough sunlight and nutrient rich water favor the growth of
phytoplankton community, synthesizing organic compounds from CO2 and H2O. Larvae of
some marine creatures like crown of thorns starfish which are harmful to corals consume
these plant-like organisms, and increase their chances of survival to adulthood. Their
increased population threaten the health of corals as corals fail to maintain growth from
damage caused by their feeding, thus more nutrients lead to outbreaks of these predators
and reef devastation. Generally, some crustacean species like crabs, lobsters that live in
these complex coral structures defend corals from crown of thorns (COTs) attack.
Nonetheless, rising acidity level is affecting growth rate of these species leaving reef system
defenseless against COTs. Moreover, weak calcareous skeletons in corals due to acidification
and coral bleaching expose reef associated organisms to its predators, resulting in either
population loss or protective species leaving their hosts for the alternate shelter.
All these factors combined are forcing many organisms to either change their habits or
adapt to altered environment.
6.3.3 Ripple effect on other aquatic species
Other than calcifying organisms, many other species suffer from collapsing marine food web
and loss of diversity in acidic waters. Squids require high oxygen level to sustain their
metabolic rates and activity levels. Under expanding hypoxic zones and acidified ocean,
squids ability to carry amount of oxygen in their blood decline affecting their metabolism
and size. Usually, squids feed near surface during the night where oxygen level is enough,
yet dive to depth in the ocean during the day suppressing their metabolism considerably.
Squids face condition on surface water similar to what they experience at depth when more
CO2 dissolved in the ocean, thus narrowing their habitable depth range. Their negatively
affected habitat makes it harder to capture their prey and longer time to hatch their eggs.
Many species that depend on sound to navigate and hunt are also affected due to changes
in ocean chemistry. Some fish species use smell to sense surrounding presence of any
predators. As a consequence of acidified ocean, their ability is severely impaired.

Changes in ocean chemistry and decrease in ocean pH will continue rapidly as more
atmospheric CO2 (on account of further increase in volcanic activities) dissolve in the ocean.

6.4 Coastal hazards and HABs

COASTAL HAZARDS

A growing number of worlds population are now living in coastal

areas as these regions offer many economic benefits to society. In
addition, coastal zone harbors variety of plant and animal species
by providing nutrients in estuaries. The effects of climate change
are likely to escalate the risk of living along coastlines. Though
risks related to coastal development are not new to hazard
management and planners, climate change alters hazard drivers which in turn, will affect
hazards that coastlines already face. Because buildings and infrastructure have been built
for a climate system with past coastal trends, many of commercial, industrial and
residential assets are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
Depending on atmosphere, ocean and climate dynamics at local and regional level, coastal
areas will respond differently to changing environment. Increased tectonics movement (e.g.
Mid-Atlantic), melting arctic ice cap, and changing ocean-atmosphere circulation (in tropics
specially) could rise sea level in some of densely populated coastal areas. Strengthening of
winds due to climate change could alter zonal circulation in tropics such that regions like
western tropical pacific remain warmer more frequent. This change also increases the risk of
cyclone activities in the region as warmer Ocean and air temperature allows faster
evaporation. Tropical cyclones bring about destructive winds and damaging storm surges
that can potentially devastate reef systems. However, factors like vertical wind shear are
also important in cyclone formation. Saltwater intrusion in estuaries also harms marine
plants and animals that are sensitive to increased salinity. Some coastal areas (e.g.
mainland Southeast Asia, east coast of United States) are likely to face heavy rainfall and
more precipitation, as increased temperature difference between sea-land in NH and rising
sea level, surge storm activities frequently. While coastal flooding in response to warmer
waters affects tropical coastlines, melting of the Arctic ice adds large quantity of fresh water,
decreasing salinity in the high latitudes. Some coastal regions at higher latitudes (e.g.
Norway) experience less extreme climate thanks to transfer of warm ocean water from
tropical Atlantic. Reduced salinity, however, limits the ability of North Atlantic water to sink
into the deep ocean basins. This causes coastal areas to have more extreme weather events
(e.g. tidal flooding) as a result. Shifting weather patterns (particularly strengthening of
westerlies) are likely to inundate coastlines at northern high latitudes with flood water. Due
to changing circulation patterns, higher sea surface temperatures in some area of tropics
are altering natural coastal ecosystem. Consequently, these areas (e.g. Florida) are
witnessing range shifts in plant and animal species. Mangrove trees are found along tropical
coast areas and provide defense against strong tides, flooding. Rising water temperature and
salt content in estuaries allow them to grow and expand their habitat (e.g. Southeast Asia,
Florida region). Also, a rising ocean acidity level is having profound impact on aquaculture
practices as acidification affects growth and survival rate of marine harvests. Financial
implications that result from the loss of harvests force rural coastal communities to relocate
in search of better jobs.
HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOMS
Algal bloom known as floating carpet is an explosion in algae
population in marine and freshwater. When conditions are
favorable, they multiply and divide in numbers to generate more
cells. Not all algae species are harmful but some species like blue-
green algae, red algae produce toxins hazardous to health and
marine biology. Effects of climate change are helping HABs to
increase in intensity and dominance over others.
Warmer oceans and high acidity levels favor growth of toxin
producing algae over non-harmful ones. Also, decrease in viscosity
makes it easier for small cyanobacteria to float to surface and form
HABs. Decrease in viscosity gives competitive advantage to these
bacteria as large algae that are unable to migrate to surface sinks
quickly. Furthermore, climate change related flooding events add
nutrient rich water from land to ocean via runoff. More nutrient
availability leads to high productivity and growth of dense algal
formation that block sunlight for organisms live in deep water.
Acidified oceans also create less competition for nutrients on
surface water giving advantage to these micro-organisms.
Increased algae growth also accelerates acidification rate in a deep ocean as dead cells
descend in great number and rapidly, paving way for more CO2 absorption.
Dense algal blooms are also responsible for frequent mass die-offs of several marine species.
Algae are short lived and when these dying algae cells decay, they release toxins which pose
serious threats directly or indirectly to various animals through food web. More frequent
algal blooms increase biomass through photosynthesis. When these organic materials settle
to the ocean floor, decomposing bacteria consume more oxygen in already depleted O2 zone
because of warm waters. Some decaying algae also pile up near shoreline, pond or lakes and
produce foul smell.
6.5 Global heat distribution and typical tropics
Earths global climate system is driven by the amounts of energy Earth receives and the
amounts it releases back into space. It is this net balance of energy flow that determines
overall temperature on Earth. Inflow of energy includes radiation received from the Sun and
heat transfer to surface from the Earths interior (0.03%), of which the Earth reflects back
some radiation in form of low energy infrared waves.
Across the Earths surface, the net difference
between incoming solar energy and outgoing
radiation varies. In high latitudes such as poles,
Sunlight strikes the Earths surface at greater
angles and therefore, is much weaker and more
dissipated than near tropics. Besides, snow and
ice near poles reradiate large proportion of
radiation back into space and therefore, has high
albedo. The tropics, on the other hand, receive
more intense sunlight over small area and less of it is reradiated back due to the fact that
ratio of land to water is low. This results in a net loss of insolation at high latitudes and a
net gain at or near the equator. To prevent a runaway thermal imbalance, energy is
transferred from warmer tropical regions toward the cooler northern and southern regions
through global atmospheric circulation and thermohaline circulation.

6.5.1 Global atmospheric circulation

Air in the atmosphere would have remained still, had it been the Suns energy distributed
evenly across the Earths surface. However, it is not true and this causes atmosphere to
move as wind. This transfer of heat takes place by various processes such as conduction
surface heating, convection heating of the atmosphere as warm air rises, and advection.
When warm air expands and rises up in the
atmosphere by convection, a region of low pressure
is formed near equatorial surface. Since water has
high heat capacity, oceans near tropics are heated
intensely resulting in higher rate of evaporation.
Water vapour condenses reaching tropopause and
form rainclouds. This formation of low pressure,
high precipitation zone is known as inter tropical
convergence zone (ITCZ). While near equator, the
position of ITCZ over land moves farther south or
north than over oceans due to greater land
temperature variations. Also, ITCZ is closely related
to the altitude of the Sun and its position varies throughout the year depending on where
the Sun is highest in the sky. In topics, this ITCZ migration is also responsible for the
resulting shifts in monsoonal rains.

Similarly, high density cold air from poles

descends and forms a region of high
pressure. This way cold air from polar
region replaces the rising warm
equatorial air through lower troposphere.
Alternatively, Air moving from high
pressure zone to low pressure zone
develops wind. In general, air circulation
between the equator and poles form a
closed loop on each hemisphere called convection cells which begin at the equator with low
density warm air lifted afloat and carried towards the poles through upper troposphere, only
being replaced by cold air from poles. This simplistic single-cell model, however, does not
depict an ideal picture of global circulation. Because of the Earths rotation and large
distance between the equator and the poles, Coriolis Effect forces the wind to deflect right in
northern hemisphere and to the left in southern hemisphere. So, the warm equatorial air
heading for the poles is pushed towards a region of slow moving surface and will end up in
east instead of moving in a straight path. Furthermore, this warm air in the upper
atmosphere squeezes as it moves away from the equator and becomes dense and dry after
losing most of its water vapour to condensation, precipitation near a narrow band of ITCZ.
Around 30 N/S latitude, north of the tropic of Cancer and south of the tropic of Capricorn,
portion of compressed air sinks producing region of high pressure belts also called
subtropical highs. Some of the sinking air moves equatorially along the surface and
establishes convection cells (Headley cells) between the ITCZ and the subtropical highs.
Since surface air around subtropical highs is warmer and relatively less humid, many of the
worlds deserts are found about these latitudes.

Analogous to Headley cells, cold and dry descending air at the poles start spreading towards
the fast-moving equator. Because of coriolis force, southward moving polar air is diverted to
the right in NH becoming polar easterlies. Also, the downward movement of air around 30
divides into north and south. While this south-west moving surface air (north-easterly trade
winds) becomes part of Headley cells, northward moving surface air is again deflected right
and becomes westerlies wind. These westerlies are capable of evaporating water around a
region it is moving from and become relatively warm, moist. Westerlies collide with polar
easterlies around 60 N/S latitude and rise above the cold air producing a low-pressure belt
of clouds and storms. This convectional ascent of the air is diverted both north and south,
forming circulation loops called Polar cell and Ferrel cell respectively.

Another important features found in global atmospheric circulation are jet streams, rapidly
eastward moving upper-jet flow, called subtropical jet and subpolar jet. The speed of the
Earths rotation (tangential velocity) is greater near the equator and slows down
considerably moving towards the poles ( = , angular
speed remains constant but value of r decreases with
increasing latitude). Therefore, as warm air rises up and
moves away from the equator, tangential speed of the earth
is observed to decrease. However, in order to conserve
angular momentum ( = ) and offset decreasing
distance from the Earths axis of rotation, the rotational
velocity () of air parcel, originated at the equator and
moving towards the poles, must increase. For this reason,
the upper-level jet is deflected eastward and sets up sharp
narrow band of airflow a.k.a. subtropical jet at about 30
away from the equator. Around sub-polar latitude, however,
different factor contributes the organized wind pattern in
tight jets. At 60 latitude, two air masses (polar and
tropical-midlatitude) with significant temperature and
density difference meet. Since wind speeds vary according to temperature gradient and the
strength of Coriolis Effect is proportional to object speed in a frame with fixed rotation rate
(angular speed), the sub-polar eastward moving jet is thus formed near breaks in
tropopause at latitude 60 N/S and flows along this transition zone. In comparison with
subtropical jet, sub-polar jet is stronger because coriolis force is greatest at the poles. Like
ITCZ, jet streams also have meandering paths but these meanders are due to Coriolis Effect
and to a certain extent geological features such as high mountains perturbing the upper
troposphere. A west to east moving jet at specific latitude has higher speed than that of the
Earth below (Earths eastward rotational speed plus its own speed). Instead of flying
outward, jets will deflect towards the equator as the best way to increase their radius
2
( ). As jet streams head towards the equator, its west to east movements slow

down. Once their west-east rotations drop lower, jets deflect towards the poles to where the
radius is smaller. This way, jet streams are divided into two components- zonal (west-east)
and meridional (north-south) flows. A stronger (weaker) jet increases zonal (meridional) flow.
Because jet streams are near boundary layers and have ability to push weather systems
with them, the location and strength of these jets aid in weather forecasting.

The position of pressure belts and jet streams stay aligned with the Sun as the Earth orbits,
and move poleward during summer reaching their northern/southern most latitude in early
autumn before shifting equatorward during winter. Such displacement is responsible for a
seasonal shift in winds and seasonal climate variations. Also, the strength of jet streams
and surface winds (trade winds, westerlies) peak during winter months due to greater
temperature difference between the poles and tropics.
MONSOON CLIMATE
This tropical phenomenon is a rainy phase of annual shifts in
position of winds and pressure belts. With the shift of the
vertical sun in summer hemisphere, the position of ITCZ shifts
towards the pole facing the Sun. The migration of low pressure
jet during the summer months into a landmass precedes the
beginning of the annual rainy season. As discussed earlier, ITCZ
marks the convergence of north-east trades from NH and south-
east trade winds from SH.

When ITCZ moves northward, the south-easterly trade winds of

southern hemisphere must cross the equator to reach the ITCZ.
Due to Coriolis Effect, this southeast trades are deflected right
upon crossing the equator and transform into south westerly
winds. Reversal of winds do not cause precipitation on their own,
however these pick up the moisture travelling from sea to land.
Once these southwest winds hit the rising terrain of Southeast Asia and Indian Peninsula,
air mass is lifted upwards to higher elevation forming clouds and precipitation. This signals
the arrival of south-west monsoon. Similarly, when ITCZ moves south during southern
summer, north-east trades turn north-westerly south of the equator picking up the
moisture from sea. This brings cloudy and rainy season in southern tropics between
November and February.

Due to large dependency on these wind patterns for most of their precipitation, monsoon is
most awaited season for tropical regions of Asia, Africa, America and Australia. Variability in
timing and strength of monsoon often results in environmental and socio-economic losses.

In addition to the latitudinal wind circulation explained

above, there also exist a set of longitudinal circulation cells.
Because oceans retain more heat and have greater
temperature stability than land, a closed circulation loop is
formed in the zonal and vertical directions.

Disparities in temperature also exist within the ocean surface

as trade winds in tropics move water and air warmed by the
sun towards the western side of the ocean. For this reason,
water in western pacific is warmer and some 60 cm higher than in eastern pacific. As a
result of sea surface temperature and pressure gradients, the entirely ocean based cell, also
known as walker cell, is formed in tropical
Pacific Ocean with surface winds flowing east to
west and higher-level winds west to east. Similar
circulation loops also occur in Atlantic and
Indian basins. Walker circulation is of particular
importance as it affects precipitation patterns
over the entire tropics from Africa to Asia to South America. Changes in strength of walker
circulation occur on annual basis as the ITCZ undergoes a regular seasonal migration
towards the summer hemisphere. The migration of ITCZ is accompanied by the changes in
winds that modulate surface temperature in the eastern equatorial pacific. A northward
migration of ITCZ during boreal summer triggers strong cross-equatorial southeast trade
winds that intensify cold upwelling in equatorial eastern pacific basin. In opposite season
(boreal winter) an equator-ward approaching ITCZ brings with it weaker cross-equatorial
winds, which subside the cold upwelling at the equator and cause thermocline to fall in
eastern pacific. It is clear that position of ITCZ over eastern tropical pacific plays significant
role in regulating zonal heat contrast across the equatorial pacific region.

6.5.1.1 El Nino-Southern oscillation

This phenomenon arises as a
consequence of sea surface temperature
anomaly in southern pacific. The
behaviour of walker cell is a key to
understanding of the El Nino
phenomenon. When walker circulation of
tropical pacific weakens, ocean water off
the western coast of South America
and/or central pacific becomes warmer
than average which, in turn, slows down
the upwelling of cold nutrient rich water.
In case of opposite phase of El Nino, also
called La Nina, a stronger convective
walker cell causes ocean water in eastern pacific to become colder than average as
strengthening surface winds take more heat and moisture away from the region. Because of
a coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions, changes in surface air pressure induce relative
changes in sea surface temperature. This changing state of atmospheric component is
known as southern oscillation.

The ENSO cycle, both El Nino and La Nina, causes extreme weather (floods and droughts)
across the tropics and subtropics. Over interannual time scales, the ENSO cycle is closely
associated with the position of pacific ITCZ such that an El Nino event peaks in December-
January (Equatorward expansion of ITCZ), whereas peak La Nina events occur between
June and September (more northerly ITCZ). However, there are persistent periods of time
when a warm or cold phase of ENSO develops early and stays longer than normal affecting
many regions of the world. Such unusual occurrences set off similar variability patterns
across various ocean basins.
EFFECTS OF ENSO
In El Nino case, wetter than normal
conditions occur along the north-
west coast of South America and
California, while drier conditions
cause extensive droughts in western
pacific nations. Surge of warm water
pool in eastern pacific would mean
strong and more frequent cyclone
activities off the west coast of Mexico
and the US that cause an increase
in landfall and coastal erosion.
Warm ocean water in eastern pacific strengthens the upper-level westerlies over Atlantic
which in turn increase vertical wind shear across the region. Strong vertical wind shear
disperses the latent heat released into the air over larger area reducing the possibility of
tropical cyclone formation and greatly decreases the number of Atlantic hurricanes.

In La Nina case, above-normal cyclone activities occur in parts of Australia and south-east
Asia with cyclone tracks shifting further up northward towards Japan. Cold eastern pacific
water pool allows for below average hurricane activities in pacific but strong in Atlantic.
Coastal regions of Peru and Chile face drought while heavy rains increase flooding risks in
Philippines, Malaysia, China and east coast of Australia. La Nina is also blamed for prolong
winter drought conditions in Texas and other parts of South-central states.
6.5.1.2 Indian Ocean Dipole
Although effective in predicting droughts in countries surrounding Indian Ocean, the weak
correlation between ENSO and Indian monsoon led to the discovery of yet another coupled
ocean and atmosphere phenomenon similar to ENSO in equatorial Indian Ocean region.
Like ENSO, SST anomalies in western tropical Indian Ocean trigger positive, neutral or
negative phases that contribute rainfall variability in the region. With a positive phase,
warmer than normal water condition prevails in the tropical western Indian Ocean blowing
winds from east to west. Reasonably, a negative phase is identified by cooler than normal
SST in western Indian Ocean and warmer than normal water in eastern Indian Ocean.
Mechanism that causes IOD phenomenon is not fully understood and is an active area of
research. Nevertheless, because of its eerie resemblance to ENSO, the position of Indian
Ocean ITCZ could hold the key to our understanding of SST anomaly in the region.
IMPACTS
Due to its large impact on agriculturally dependant countries of Indian subcontinent and
south-east Asia, IOD events across the Indian Ocean often seen as an effective forewarning
tool to predict a preferred zone of rising moist air and greater precipitation.

A positive IOD event sees the Arabian

Sea being much warmer with an
increased monsoon rains over Indian
subcontinent and western parts of the
ocean. Countries surrounding the
Arabian Sea witness unusual cyclonic
activity during pIOD events. It is also
noted that cooler than normal water off
the coast of west Sumatra is
responsible for drought around
Indonesia region and below normal rainfall over southern parts of Australia. Cold surface
waters off the northwest coast of Australia weaken the northwest cloudbands which bring
moisture towards the central and southeast Australia during winter-spring season.
Although these cloud-bands account for only quarter of total rainfall in South-east
Australia, positive/neutral IOD is cited as one of the drivers contributing to rainfall
deficiency. When an Austral summer is followed by a pIOD event, descending warm and dry
south-easterly winds (from northern ends of high pressure) create an ideal condition for
bushfires in rainfall deficit south-east region. Continuous pIOD or neutral events are
blamed for an increase in frequency of bushfire incidents across South Australia and parts
of Victoria.

Conversely, in periods of nIOD events,

Sumatra and regions of south-east Asia
register normal rainfall during the
southwest and northeast monsoon
seasons. Strong convective activity over
northwest of Australia directs
moisture-laden air down towards the
central and southeast Australia.
Passing cold front uplifts these moist
air increasing winter rainfall and storms across the region. Indian subcontinent and east
Africa face weak monsoon rains or drought during nIOD phase.

Although these fluctuating patterns are seen to be independent of ENSO, early observation
of both cycles greatly improves precipitation forecasts during the southwest and northeast
monsoon and also helps vulnerable nations develop contingency plan for disaster
preparedness (against events like droughts, floods, mudslide, fires, unseasonal rain).

6.5.2 Global ocean conveyor belt

Though atmospheric general circulation model may have been efficient in transferring heat
and water vapour across the globe, yet it is not the only source of heat redistribution.
Because water has higher specific heat capacity than gases in the atmosphere, water
masses transport heat slowly but in large amount in form of global ocean conveyor belt.
Such global scale oceanic circulation is driven by two processes: surface ocean currents and
thermohaline currents.

SURFACE OCEAN CURRENTS

These wind driven currents are found near

the ocean surface and move upper few
hundred metres of the ocean. Prevailing
winds exert friction as they move over the
ocean surface. The movement of water mass
is determined by wind, Earths rotation
(coriolis effect), landmass and gravity. Just
as coriolis effect deflects the atmospheric
wind right in NH and left in SH, the resulting
spiral of ocean currents flow clockwise in NH
and counter-clockwise in SH. Because these
currents are caused by wind, their speed is
greatest near the surface and drops at roughly 100 metres below the surface. Also an
uneven ocean surface affects the flow of currents with some moving quickly while others
more slowly. Currents are found to have different size and strength due to factors like wind
stress variation, bottom friction.

One very large and most documented

surface ocean current is the Gulf
Stream. This warm Atlantic Ocean
current starts off its journey along
the western boundary and extends
towards Europe. North-east moving
Gulf Stream splits into branches with
one moving warm waters further
north into Labrador and European basins (North Atlantic Drift). Eventually, this branch
feeds into Norwegian current. Because of this system, sea surface temperatures are warm
keeping the climate of east coast of Florida and Western Europe mild in winter than other
regions at similar latitudes. Besides, currents play significant role in distributing marine sea
life. Many species as small as tiny larvae get entrained in the strong Gulf Stream and drift
toward the far reach of North Atlantic to south Greenland. These currents are also
important to provide vital nutrients supply and serve as breeding ground to aquatic life.

THERMOHALINE CURRENTS

Ocean water at a kilometre depth below the surface remains isolated from the atmosphere,
yet ocean circulation is formed at this level. In contrast to surface currents, this deep ocean
circulation moves water relatively slower and is driven by differences in water density. The
density of seawater is a function of temperature and salinity, hence the name thermo-
haline. Warm (fresh) water is less dense and lighter than cold (salty) water. Seawater at the
surface is often subject to temperature changes through heating or cooling, and salinity
changes through precipitation/ice melting or evaporation/sea ice formation.

The circulation initiates in the cold northern latitude, where the tail end of the Gulf Stream
or North Atlantic branch releases heat to the atmosphere leaving water cooler and denser.
Also, the cold climate in the polar region promotes the formation of sea ice. Consequently,
this increases the salt content that is left behind and further increases the water density.
High density water starts to sink which is replaced by surface water. Once water sinks, its
temperature and halinity remain set for extended period of time. This is also the reason why
the response of deep ocean chemistry lags behind any changes in climate forcing. As more
surface water gets pulled in, sinking water heads south crossing the equator and moving
down the ends of South America. There, current picks up more cold, salty water as it travels
along the edge of Antarctica. Current splits into two northward moving sections, one travels
into the Indian Ocean while other into the Pacific. Two branches of current rise as water
becomes warm and less dense through upwelling. This way, surface water is also being
replaced with water rising from deeper depths. Warm shallow waters continue circulating
around the globe; eventually returning to the North Atlantic via the Gulf Stream where the
cycle begins again. Although this process is extensively slow, great volumes of water are
transported vertically and horizontally. This vertical movement of water masses connects
surface currents and thermohaline currents.

6.5.3 Precession driven shift in tropical rain band

During a calendar year, tropical cloud band (ITCZ) and other surface level atmospheric
pressure zones migrate north or south of the equator in accordance with a corresponding
latitudinal movement of greatest solar intensity. Because of the Earths tilted axis and its
orbit around the Sun, the latitude where the Sun directly appears overhead changes
between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. A relative surface and
atmospheric heating of hemisphere, in response to increased summer insolation, draw ITCZ
towards the tropical summer region. Seasonal climate variations are result of the
displacement of atmospheric bands.

Nonetheless, there exists a time lag between the Suns seasonal movement and the
movement of the atmospheric cells. For the same reason, northern (southern) countries
have warmest (coldest) weather in Aug/Sept and coldest (warmest) weather in Feb/Mar.
These are the months when ITCZ attains its northernmost and southernmost positions
respectively. Whereas the Sun reaches its northernmost and southernmost latitudes in
June solstice and Dec solstice respectively. Principally, solar radiation and evaporative heat
inputs from the oceans and land determine the lower atmospheric air temperature. Because
the oceans and land do not respond instantly to any changes in solar intensity as the suns
position shifts seasonally, changes to surface temperature, evaporation rate, and air
temperature would require weeks of solar heating to cause the atmospheric cells to move.
Furthermore, lower heat capacity of land causes the rate of evaporation more rapidly over
land than over the oceans. Consequently, the time lag between the seasonal latitudinal shift
of greatest solar intensity and changes in air temperature is shorter over the continents
than over the oceans. Since the majority of landmass happens to be in Northern
Hemisphere, seasonal migration of atmospheric cells has shorter time lag north of the
equator than south of the equator.

Asymmetric behaviour between hemispheres also arise due to ellipticity of the Earths orbit.
With current eccentricity value of 0.0167, the Earths distance to the Sun deviates from its
mean by 1.617%. Earths closest (perihelion) and furthest (aphelion) points from the Sun
occur in January and July respectively. Because of this, the intensity of sunlight during SH
summer is about 7% more than during NH summer. Over broader time scales, such
interhemispheric heat difference, in relation to solar intensity variation, causes the position
of caloric equator and average ITCZ to remain north or more south depending on which
hemisphere receives greater radiations from the Sun. Millennial scale changes in incoming
solar radiation, at hemispheric level, would alter latitudinal position of caloric equator and
atmospheric pressure zones. Periodic changes in the Earths orbital shape, axial tilt, and
axial orientation relative to the orbital plane can affect the intensity of summer insolation
and hence, the seasonality. Among orbital forcing described above, precession, being the
shortest of all, appears to be having a dominant effect on tropical climate changes as it
shifts the caloric equator, which in turn can affect the tropical rain band responsible for
monsoon strength. Precession driven changes in tropical climate processes is referred to as
the typical tropics. For the region of high latitudes, however, eccentricity and axial tilt may
play a larger role in changing the local climate.

Besides, since changes in the Earths orbital shape and axial tilt increase (or decrease)
summertime radiation intensity difference between hemispheres, changes in values of these

The latitude where the values of summer half-year radiation and winter half-year radiation are equal.
Between the caloric equator and the geographic equator, the summer radiation is less than the winter
radiation.
parameters would also contribute in shifting the position of caloric equator and atmospheric
convection cells. However, seemingly large periodic variation cycles in comparison, these
factors appear to modulate the impacts of precession. An approximately 21K years cycle,
Precession (axial and apsidal combined) is a clockwise shift in the Earths axial orientation
relative to the slow moving apsidal points on ecliptic. At present, NH winter solstice occurs
near perihelion but nearly 10K years ago, summer solstice was close to perihelion. And so,
was northern hemisphere the preferred location for caloric equator. As NH summer solstice
slowly receded away from perihelion, the caloric equator started moving towards south.

However, the migration of ITCZ and atmospheric cells do not follow the same way. Their
movement is influenced by glaciation, land-ocean ratio. Since eccentricity modulates
precessional effects, a higher value of eccentricity increases hemispheric difference of solar
intensity and hence, not only glaciers expand but also cover larger area of high latitudes
during respective hemispheres low intensity periods. Therefore, when switch happens due
to precession, it takes time for region to heat up which delays the response of ITCZ to an
increased insolation. Also, if a hemisphere with large land-ocean ratio becomes the location
for caloric equator migration then fast warming of surface (low heat capacity of land) allows
the average position of ITCZ to quickly follow the movement of caloric equator. As SH has
low land-ocean ratio, southward migration of ITCZ could have started long after the NH
summer solstice moved away from perihelion. Under current orbital settings (low
eccentricity and SH summer solstice moving away from perihelion), the average ITCZ
position could respond fast to a northward moving caloric equator due to low level of
glaciation and large land-ocean ratio in NH.

These naturally occurring periodic cycles effectively control climate changes on Earth for
thousands of years. However, since the beginning of the industrial era, human induced
greenhouse gases might act as a positive feedback that amplify these existing changes.
6.5.4 Climate anomalies and effects on civilizations

6.5.4.1 ENSO
In present climate, ENSO is cited as one of the main sources of interannual disturbances in
weather and climate worldwide through series of teleconnections. While ITCZ undergoes a
regular seasonal migration each year, ENSO signal shows a remarkable sensitivity to the
ITCZ displacement. The onset of El Nino events needs weaker easterlies (westerly wind
anomalies) near the equator. A seasonal approach of ITCZ to the equator, during December
through April, sees weakening of the easterlies. El Nino matures during boreal winter
months, which suggests that it is sustained by southerly ITCZ favoured weak easterlies.
Therefore, if ITCZ is positioned near the equator (or more southerly) in eastern pacific for a
longer season each year, or oscillate within a range retaining its position to the equator, the
overall probability for westerly wind anomalies strong enough to produce El Nino would also
increase.

Based on simple climate model forced by insolation changes, it is likely that dynamics of
ENSO would have been active in the past as opposed to a current view of absent or weaker
ENSO activities. Various forcing mechanisms such as volcanic eruption, sunspot cycles may
affect solar insolation on shorter timescales. Over longer timescales, variability is marked by
strong orbital influence due to precession. Because southern summer solstice occurs near
perihelion, the ITCZ over the oceans, particularly over Pacific and Atlantic, maintains a
nearly permanent Northern Hemisphere bias, rarely crossing the equator or forming
spontaneously south of it. Increased insolation in southern summer is seen as one of the
factors controlling its position over longer timescales. A systematic southward shift of the
mean ITCZ latitude, in response to cooler NH summers, could have unfavoured equatorial
divergent upwelling, resulting in weaker zonal temperature gradients, a condition that
started frequent episodes of El Nino events (a low land-ocean ratio in SH means
interhemispheric thermal gradient be never as large during SH insolation maximum and
therefore, weak cross-equatorial winds ). Similarly, northern summer insolation would have
gradually increased to maximum during times when northern summer solstice was near
perihelion. A northerly displaced mean ITCZ at the time, would have promoted strong
upwelling due to persistent southeast trades blowing across the equator (greater landmass
in NH means strong response to heating during NH insolation maximum and thus, greater
asymmetry between NH and SH). Likewise, cool SST and strong upwelling could have
favoured La Nina as a dominant phase of ENSO at the time. What it means is that, as a
result of precession, ENSO signal evolved from absent or less frequent El Nino in the past to
a stronger, more frequent El Nino in modern times. Conversely, it is plausible that
sometimes around or after Autumnal Equinox approach to perihelion, as the position of
ITCZ headed south, it attained a sufficient proximity to the equator and began to perturb
the equatorial easterlies in a manner that could help more CP El Nino (ENSO modoki) events
(b/c northern continents cooled faster than the oceans).

Based on this understanding, one can estimate future response of ENSO variability as the
mean latitude of ITCZ shift its position in relation to hemispherically asymmetric warming.
In the absence of other forcing, cooling southern summers will see the mean ITCZ continue
its northward migration as a result of increased heat difference between NH and SH.
Because the ITCZ is tightly coupled to the dynamics of the equatorial cold tongue,
particularly over eastern tropical pacific, a northward moving ITCZ may likely increase
cross-equatorial wind flow and tendency of ENSO modoki events (perhaps La Nina modoki?).
While southern waters retain heat before cooling occurs, northern continents may respond
quickly to a northward moving caloric equator that may initiate a northward excursion of
mean ITCZ. Natural or anthropogenic, but climate change related events from the present
and more recent past support a northward ITCZ shift. Over a longer term, existing rainfall
deficit conditions in Texas and California during winter months may worsen as ENSO
pattern changes to more modoki events. However, along with a northward shift of mean
ITCZ, an increase in land-sea thermal contrast would boost summer precipitation in Texas
and neighbouring coastline states. On western-central pacific, island nations (Polynesian &
adjacent Micronesian islands) and coral reefs are under direct threat of warm ocean waters
and rising sea levels due to changes in ocean-wind circulation. The same modoki phase
could be one of the factors behind a recent autumn rainfall increase in north-western parts
of Australia.
6.5.4.2 IOD
Like the pacific ITCZ, long term systematic shifts in ITCZ in the same direction across
different ocean basins could have occurred globally. A southward displacement of ITCZ over
the Indian Ocean may have caused more frequent positive SST anomalies to develop off
Indonesia in the eastern IO, with coincident atmospheric circulation changes (weak
easterlies). As a result, advection of moisture from eastern equatorial IO to Sumatra and
adjacent regions (north of Java and Kalimantan) would have largely increased. Wetter than
normal conditions and frequent flooding events in the region would have coincided with the
same period. Also, increased convection over eastern equatorial IO would have strengthened
moisture transport through NW cloudband to SE Australia and Victoria, helping to improve
wintertime rainfall record. An exact opposite set of events occur during pIOD. A northerly
displaced position of average ITCZ during early Holocene would have favoured strong cross
equatorial south-east winds and enhanced divergent upwelling in eastern side of the ocean.
This northerly position of ITCZ could have created prime conditions for pIOD to mature
strongly and more frequently. This indicates summer insolation changes due to precession,
shifts the position of rain bearing clouds both meridionally and zonally.

It is certain that climate change

would have contributed towards
the rise and fall of great
civilizations in the past. Three
great ancient settlements of the
tropics (Indus, Egypt,
Mesopotamia), which were about
the same latitude, developed in
valleys of rivers. These civilizations
colonized land along rivers & its
tributaries as they were largely
dependent on watercourses for
agriculture, transport and trade
routes. A northerly positioned ITCZ could have helped civilizations to flourish and spread
further inland into remote regions of valleys. Seasonal monsoon was their main form of
water resource. These societies could have reaped benefits of bountiful rains by collecting,
storing water using reservoirs, for it to be used during other times of a year. Large
agricultural surpluses, as a result, supported the development of long ranging economic
trades between three societies. Along with trades, exchange of ideas, methods began to take
place, helping people master their skills and technology.

However, like many tropics in ancient

history, these civilizations too suffered
a decline in the aftermath of a major
climate change. Excavated ruins of
Indus valley civilization draw a clear
picture as to how this civilization
inadvertently followed changing
weather patterns and resettled in a
small community further east. Indus
settlements were situated along the
banks of Indus and Sarasvati River. Coincidently, the area they lived came under direct
threat at times average ITCZ shifted south. A southward migration of ITCZ may have
weakened the summer monsoon subcontinent wide but Indus valley could have been hit the
hardest. A southward displaced ITCZ signifies warm water pool towards the eastern side of
equatorial IO (more nIOD events). This would have shifted the centre of trough zonally
eastward. Cooler western part of the ocean would have greatly restricted moisture transport
into the region. Lack of adequate water supplies for irrigation led to crops failure, and
dwindling crop yields, in turn, affected their trade networks. Colonies began to reduce in
size and concentrated into smaller region. Slowly over time, the shortage of drinkable water
even in these reduced areas forced masses to disperse and migrate towards the Ganges
plain in the east. Periods of sustained droughts and accelerated evaporation caused riverbed
and tributaries to shrink, and slowly dried up. Ecological disaster of this scale created
upheaval in society to a level that could never have recovered to allow for re-establishment
of trades with other cultures.

Around the same time, similar accounts of societal collapse can be found elsewhere. Settled
on the banks of Nile, the mighty builders of ancient pyramid also fell victim to a changing
climate. Being developed further west of the Indian Ocean, Ancient Egypt could have learned
a gradual decline in precipitation over the Nile few centuries earlier than the effect of a
similar kind by Indus valley civilization. This ancient society was divided into two regions: to
the north, surrounding the Nile Delta, was
Lower Egypt and to the south was Upper
Egypt. People in this society were completely
dependent on annual Nile River flooding for
farming. The source of river Nile is the union
of two major tributaries: the White Nile and
the Blue Nile. The longer of two, White Nile,
runs from south in Rwanda of central Africa,
while the Blue Nile originates from Ethiopian
highlands. Both tributaries converge near
Sudan, flowing north for a thousand miles in Egypt before widening and splitting into
branches. These branches form Nile delta region through which runoff from Ethiopian
mountains and equatorial eastern Africa enters the Mediterranean Sea. Though shorter, the
Blue Nile is the most significant tributary of the Nile which contributes more than half of
total streamflow. Apart from being a major source to annual Nile flooding, the Blue Nile
supplies rich organic nutrients to a swath of land surrounding the river. In summer, raging
storms over the high Ethiopian plateau cause water in nearby lake to overflow. This rushing
torrent erodes blocks of sediments out of the mountains, carrying tonnes of silt down to the
plains. This time around the flow of the Blue Nile reaches maximum volume, whereupon
merging with the White Nile and reaching Egypt, it floods the terrain in the river basin
depositing layers of silt. Once the flood waters subside, it leaves behind the silt and fertilize
the land for growing crops. These fertile soils were the bedrock of ancient Egypt civilization.
On millennial timescales, a southward shift of the average ITCZ would have weakened the
intensity of Ethiopian monsoon by limiting the south-easterlies flow and cooling western
part of the equatorial Indian Ocean. So, this would have changed deposits of silt and
vegetation response in delta region by modulating the northward extension of river flooding.
Stressed vegetation to the north due to variations in Nile flow would have impacted ancient
Egyptian civilization. Here, Climate change indeed played a central role in shaping major
historical events. For instance, several regional droughts could have forced people to
coalesce and initiated Lower and Upper Egypt unification process. A marked drying of
climate and deterioration of vegetation arose the need for the extension of Egypts influence
and power along the river south during the Middle Kingdom.

While a pronounced shift in atmospheric circulation turned fertile floodplains into arid
landscapes and narrowed the vegetation corridor, an eastward migration of warm water pool
would have allowed moisture laden south-westerly winds to penetrate further into central-
eastern China. Precipitation and monsoon intensity are the main contributors that govern
the moisture variability in these areas. EASM rainfall in Central-Eastern China could have
been strengthened after the eastward expansion of East Asian rainbelt. Through Hadley
circulation, a rising branch of convection over eastern equatorial IO could have increased
summer precipitation and consequently, alluvial deposition in the lower reaches of Yellow
river basin. However, the lower reaches of river and the delta have seen decline in flood
water, silt discharge into the Bohai Sea. Meanwhile, the sinking region of the Hadley cell
(WNPSH) is shifted northward, which in turn could dominate the region near ridgeline with
hot dry days. On the other side, the Kashmir region, North Indian states have been
experiencing some of the worst episodes of deluge in modern history. Flash flooding and
landslide events in these regions are becoming more often than not destructive and
damaging. Could these set of events be attributed to a slow westward migration of the
monsoons across Asia? Also, similar to Polynesian islands on western tropical pacific, the
Maldives, consisting of 1192 coral islands to the southwest of India and Sri Lanka, are
facing the dire consequences of being submerged under the sea. Frequent flooding, sea level
rise, rising water temperature are considered potential risks in this part of the world. Can
the sinking paradise be best explained by more frequent pIOD events in future, in response
to the mean latitude shift of the ITCZ?

6.5.4.3 Coral Triangle

At the intersection between Indian
Ocean and Pacific Ocean, there lies a
triangular area, comprising highest
diversity of coral, reef fish and sea
turtle species. Due to its huge
spanning area and climate conditions
(tropical sunlight, warm sea temp,
surface currents) unique for natural
productivity, it is regarded as the
centre of marine biodiversity. This
bioregion is considered as the planets
most valuable natural treasures after rainforests. But the most diverse and productive
marine ecosystem is facing environment challenges such as climate change.

Climate change in form of a northward shift of atmospheric convection impacts ENSO, IOD
oscillations which may prove detrimental for reef-building corals. Consequently, increasing
La-Nina/modoki patterns induce more frequent thermal stress across the coral triangle via
transfer of warm water pool on western portion of the equatorial pacific. Also, high incident
sunlight, and strengthening of the pacific equatorial current in response to these patterns,
elevate the SST and likelihood of corals to exceed thermal tolerance threshold. Nevertheless,
warming within the region could have considerable spatial variability, with eastern parts of
the coral triangle experiencing more thermal stress events and warming fast. Moreover,
heavy rains over the triangle region too pose threat for fragile corals as large amount of
nutrients from sediments flow through rivers onto the reef, blocking out the sunlight and
eventually stressing the coral polyps. Therefore, large influx of sediments due to increased
precipitation can expel the symbiotic algae living in their tissues and bleach near-shore
corals. As in coral triangle region, coral reefs in other areas have suffered heat stress events
and those affected include Lakshadweep, Seychelles, east African coastline, and Arabian
coast. A massive bleaching event has also been recorded in reefs off the Caribbean region
and is associated with warm ocean temperature. But not all bleaching events in the past
have resulted from warm ocean conditions. Anomalously large scale IOD-related upwelling
in east equatorial IO bring lots of cool, nutrient rich water up from the seafloor which
hinders the development of coral reefs. A frequent genesis of pIOD events, in response to a
northward movement of the average ITCZ, lead to subsidence of air over the maritime
continent and neighbouring islands. Shift of the moisture convergence and precipitation
patterns cause loss of cloud cover, severe drought, and forest fires across Indonesia and
surrounding countries. Smoke and haze from wildfires put further stress on corals in
already nutrient rich environment as strong easterlies blow smoke out over the ocean, and
cooling off the Sumatra-Java coast does not let smoke to rise away from reefs. Iron
fertilization by smoke and volcanic ash fallout is enough to stimulate a massive red tide,
potentially destroying reef system. This shows that severe wildfires and eruption can
escalate the rate of coral reef mortality across Western Sumatra.

But, with climate change, irregularities may become prevalent during transition times
despite there could be an overall long term trend towards a dominant phase of ENSO and
IOD oscillations. Since oceans in SH are warmer while landmasses in NH are warming up,
extremes of ITCZ position may vary unpredictably. Due to this uncertain behaviour, corals
could face extremes of both heat and cold. Normally, Corals in a region are adapted to a
typical temperature range but the rapidity of temperature change as well as the deviation
from this range could set off bleaching reaction.

6.5.4.4 Tropical moist forest

Another habitat type, rich in species diversity, is vulnerable to the effects of climate change.
Tropical rainforests, a subset of tropical forests and home to countless animal and plant
species, are considered some of the most diverse areas on the planet. These forests are
found at latitudes between Tropics of Cancer and Tropics of Capricorn, which are dominated
by climate patterns consists of abundant moisture and sunlight. In addition to the warm
and wet conditions, other parameters such as nutrient availability also affect tropical
rainforests. Most tropical soils are nutrient poor as high amount of precipitation leach
nutrients out of soil. However, high levels of precipitation and temperature provides ideal
conditions for the rapid decaying of dead organic matter. Nutrients released in these
processes are in high demand and are immediately taken up by fast growing plants.
Because most of nutrients come from decaying processes, tree roots do not penetrate to
deeper soil layers but stay close to the surface of the soil.
TEMPERATURE AND P RECIPITATION
At low latitudes, Sun rays strike the surface most directly than anywhere else. High level of
incoming radiant energy maintains constant high temperature and has little variation in
annual temperature range. Because of this, climatic seasons in tropics are characterised not
by warm and cold but by changes in precipitation. Although climate in tropics is hot,
temperatures never reach values regularly recorded in drier subtropical regions due to cloud
cover. Year-round warm climate promotes high rate of evaporation and transpiration
creating strong humid environment. A corresponding high amount of rainfall is required to
support plant growth. Warm air, due to intense solar energy input, rises and holds more
moisture which condenses and falls as rain. It is also the same convectional zone where
converging trade winds meet. The amount of precipitation decreases travelling north and
south away from the low pressure zone, as the influence of the ITCZ becomes weaker. Thus,
the intertropical convergence zone plays significant role in creating climate conditions
necessary for tropical forests. Places that remain inside of ITCZ all year (or receive more
than 200 cm of annual rain) have tropical rainforest climate and those adjacent to them, but
outside the ITCZ in some months, have tropical seasonal forest climate. Seasonal forests
and boundaries of tropical rainforests experience a brief dry season during seasonal
migration of ITCZ. Also, bands between the edge of tropical seasonal rainforest and the
tropics of Cancer and Capricorn experience longer dry season than wet season and have
savannah climate. Thus, based on amount of precipitation, forests within tropics can be
classified as tropical rainforests, seasonal rainforests and tropical dry forests.
Since the atmospheric belt of intense, moist convection regulates the hydrological cycle, its
movement largely affects the climate of tropical forests and their preferred zone. While ITCZ
regularly undergoes a seasonal migration towards the summer hemisphere, its average
northernmost and southernmost positions are controlled by changes in summer insolation.
Because of the nature of Earths orbit and SH summer stationed near perihelion, southern
hemisphere receives more summertime solar radiation than northern hemisphere. As a
consequence of insolation maximum, the resulting cloud band of rising moist air penetrates
further south during austral summer. Relatively, a reduced summer insolation in NH limits
the northern extreme of ITCZ. Put simply, the latitudinal position of average ITCZ remains
more southward every year. However, SH summer does not always fall on the same side as
perihelion. Around 10K years BP, NH summer was near perihelion and greater NH summer
insolation marked more northerly mean ITCZ latitude at that time. More northerly displaced
ITCZ restricted southward course of moisture transport leading to development of savannah
climate. Enhanced rainfall under the influence of more northerly ITCZ promoted vegetated
landscape in most of now arid northern tropical regions. Also, increased summer radiation
created broad low pressure zone that initiated African Humid Period. North African
landmass heating, due to low thermal inertia and increased insolation, pulled a large influx
of moist air from the tropical Atlantic which nourished the landscape. However, as seasons
shifted, in relation to apsides, to attain present condition, climate change in northern
tropics gave way to more arid climate response which caused southward expansion of North
African desert at the expense of grassland. A gradual termination of humid conditions
caused progressive desiccation of the region which led to a widespread depopulation and
abandonment of North African sites. These populations did not disappear, however. The
large-scale exodus was coincident with the concentration of societies along the Niles fluvial
corridor, and acted as precursor to the emergence of its first politically centralized
civilizations.

While a more restricted northward range of summer ITCZ caused aridification of northern
part of continent, the opposite trend occurred in the southern tropics. A shift of locus of
precipitation, in response to southward retreat of mean ITCZ, supported a southward
expansion of Bolivian rainforest at the expense of savannah. A more southerly position of
ITCZ over South America strengthened the South American summer monsoon, implying
persistent moisture availability high enough to stabilize biomes and support rainforests in
amazon basin. Nevertheless, the southern parts of Earths largest rainforest, is showing the
first signs of largescale degradation due to climate change. These areas are receiving less
and less rainfall every year. Correspondingly, a slow recovery of Amazon forest due to
persistent drought conditions, may alter the function and structure of Amazon ecosystems.
A steady decline in water availability and prolonged period of below average rain could
damage the forest canopy to a level that may persist right up to the subsequent drought. A
drier climate in southern Amazon leads to tree die-offs and increase incidence of
uncontrolled burning. On the contrary, the southern edges of Sahara is experiencing a
recovery of vegetation. Though small and barely measurable, a retreat of the Southern
Sahara could be best explained by an increase in rainfall. Can a parched southern fringe of
Amazon or green shoots of recovery on satellite images of the southern parts of Sahara be
attributed to a gradual meridional shift of rainfall? Even if it is so, climate transition would
progress slowly over a period of millennia. But Fire induced deforestation is an area of
concern in Amazonia. A large scale burning of forest may result when region experiences a
long period of low rainfall. Even so, Human activities such as illegal logging, clear cutting for
commercial agriculture are causing greater and more immediate impacts on local forest.
Various species of trees, plants and animals do not recover as fast from damage done by
human activities. These species which are already under stress from changing environment
and shifting rainfall patterns need protection against human activities so that they can
successfully adapt changing climate conditions or migrate to places that support them.

Though precession is shown here as a pacemaker of tropical climate change, periodic

variations in other orbital parameters (eccentricity, obliquity) also impact solar insolation
changes. Because precession effectively controls strength and north/south penetration of
the monsoonal rains over relatively shorter timescales, it is considered having the most
influence on tropics. A dramatic climate transitions from arid condition to grassland not
only represents a remarkable transformation of the water cycle, but indication that gradual
climate forcing can result in rapid climate responses.

6.5.5 Long term changes in glacier length and mass balance over mid
and subarctic latitudes
Unlike the climate of tropics which can be defined by wet and dry seasons, the subarctic
and upper band of temperate latitudes experience large changes in temperature, and
therefore have cold and warm seasons. This large annual temperature range is due to north
and south shift in semi-permanent pressure zones. During summer, the region is dominated
by south-westerlies that transport warm air from lower latitudes. During winter, a
southward moving jet allows polar winds (easterlies or north easterlies) to influence the
climate there. However, other climate variables such as warm ocean current affect the
severity of cold and warm weather locally.

Furthermore, there are times when this west to east flowing polar jet develop more
meridional feature, allowing frigid polar air to push down into lower mid-latitude regions.
These large atmospheric undulations are known as Rossby Waves. Especially during winter,
such undulating pattern formations bring record low temperature and heavy snowfall that
extend far south. A weak temperature difference between tropics and northern polar region
is seen as a possible forcing mechanism behind this southward pointing lobes of jet stream
into mid-latitudes. A general assumption is that ongoing arctic sea ice loss and faster rate of
temp rise in arctic than tropics cause the polar vortex to weaken, shift, and push the jet
stream far to the south. Under this model, episodes of cold winter outbreak will increase in
future. However, changes in tropics could also generate a meandering flow response.
Changes in the geographical distribution of the suns energy over the Earths surface, in
response to the millennial scale Earth-Sun orbital relationship, can naturally influence the
climate system. A precession driven southward (northward) shift in the caloric equator also
means weak (strong) rate of solar heating in northern tropics. As a result, temperature
difference between the tropics and arctic decreases (increases), weakening (strengthening)
the westerlies. A high (low) amplitude jet in turn allows (restricts) cold air masses from the
Arctic Circle to follow south. Large (little) displacement of air masses decreases (increases)
the stability of vortex tube, and eventually weakens (strengthens) the polar vortex. An index
used in Northern Hemisphere to evaluate changes in circular pattern is called Northern
Annular Mode (NAM), also known as the Arctic Oscillation. These atmospheric pressure
patterns see-saw between positive and negative phases, with the negative phase linked to
penetration of Arctic air into middle latitudes. A negative mode of AO means a weaker, more
variable vortex ring and a curvy, slower west to east jet stream.

Thus, it is likely that the jet streams plunging pattern is a long-standing natural
phenomenon and first started twisting and turning about a time when the amount of solar
energy reaching the NH dropped. The jet stream could have been relatively flat before,
blowing straight and consistently from west to east. This could have kept cold arctic air
locked in the polar region and favoured pAO as dominant mode. But then, the precession
induced drop in solar energy altered the climate worldwide such that it increased the
tendency of harsh winter weather across many parts of the middle latitudes through a
negative Arctic Oscillation mode. With thermal contrast between northern tropics and arctic
at low level, slow blowing winds, under the Coriolis Effect, deflected lesser amount, and thus
limiting eastward movement of air. This could have resulted in Arctic air moving far south,
and tropical air heading far north, explaining pronounced north-south behaviour of Jet
Stream. These conditions for the northern latitudes (a more active negative phase of AO)
could have helped glacier formation further to south as a relatively cool summer favoured
less melting of winter snow.

Changes in glacier length and mass balance provide vital clues to a change in climate for the
subarctic, as a change in precipitation pattern is for tropics. While the advance or retreat of
glaciers provides enhanced but delayed signal to a change in climate, the glacier mass
balance is the direct and undelayed response to changes in atmospheric conditions. The ice
thickness variability of glaciers is directly influenced by changes in regional temperature
and snowfall. These parameters are sensitive to climate anomalies that arise due to
variations in Sun-Earth orbital set-up. Therefore, rather than being defined by it, polar
vortex and jet stream configuration can help to understand reduced snow cover throughout
midlatitudes, thinning of ice sheets over subarctic region. Could these set of observed events
in recent times point to a gradual, long term shift towards a decrease in jet stream
curviness? Also, it is evident that southern Europe and Mediterranean basin could
increasingly become susceptible to a drier climate. These land regions around the
Mediterranean Sea experience a type of climate characterized by dry summers and mild, wet
winters. The polar jet and associated weather fronts normally reach into the latitudes of
Mediterranean region during winter, bringing rain, with snow at higher elevations. During
summer, the basin is dominated by a strong ocean-based subtropical high, with large scale
subsidence and sinking motion of air, making rainfall unlikely. As a result, the lands
bordering the Mediterranean Sea, with this type of climate, receive almost all of their rainfall
from October through March. Climate change resulting from a northward shift in caloric
equator may severely affect this climate zone as warming of northern continents push winter
stormtracks further up North. Due to low glaciation and large land-ocean ratio, a fast
responding NH would initiate a northward movement of mean ITCZ. Increased thermal
contrast between the northern tropics and arctic means stronger prevailing winds (easterly
trades, midlatitude south-westerlies) and the position of jets. Stronger trade winds and an
organized flow of jets in NH would see more occurrences of pAO mode, and warm, dry
winters in the Mediterranean region. Thus, climate zones in NH, with the Mediterranean
climate type, could increasingly become drier in future, making them more prone to
droughts and wildfires. Also, a northward displacement of polar jet could lead to drier winter
conditions across the southern tier of the US. Across the North Atlantic, a stronger jet shifts
storm-tracks far enough northward to bring increased storm activity and wetter than
normal winter conditions in Northern and North-western Europe. Likewise, a more northerly
stromtrack diverts increased precipitation into the North western US (Washington, Oregon).
Furthermore, mild winter temperatures leave a paltry snowpack, which can easily disappear
in time of summer, leaving boreal forest exposed to hot, dry summer winds.

6.5.5.1 North Atlantic Oscillation

Besides AO, another oscillation mode
that plays a major role in determining the
penetration of arctic air and the climate
of Europe in winter is North Atlantic
oscillation. NAO is a small-scale
expression of atmospheric structure
limited to the North Atlantic and
surrounding humid climates. NAO is
closely related to AO which is a
representative of atmospheres dynamics
at much larger scale. The climate index is
a measure of fluctuations in the
difference between atmospheric pressure
at sea level over the Azores and
Southwest Iceland. The pressure typically
found south of the Azores is a large semi-
permanent high atmospheric pressure- a characteristic feature of subtropical climate.
Whereas a semi-permanent cell centred between Iceland and Southern Greenland is a low
pressure system and exists because of the polar front- a boundary where warm midlatitude
and cold arctic air meet. A relatively steep thermal contrast between two air masses makes
this oceanic low most intense in winter. Thus, a resulting pressure gradient between the
Icelandic low and the Azores high controls the strength and direction of westerly winds
across the North Atlantic. A larger difference in pressure (NAO+) leads to strong westerly
winds and consequently, mild and wet winters in Northern European sector due to
increased moisture transport from the Atlantic. In contrast, when North Atlantic climate
index is low (NAO-), suppressed westerlies bring about extreme winter temperature in
Central Europe, and storms track southwards.

A shift of climate pattern towards a more positive NAO would likely result in response to a
northward migration of the mean ITCZ latitude across the Atlantic basin. A long-term
systematic northward shift in position of the Atlantic ITCZ due to variations in the
interhemispheric thermal gradient, could induce changes not only in strength and direction
of jet streams and wind patterns but also associated pressure cells. The relative strength of
Icelandic low would increase in a climate with heightened thermal gradient. Strengthening
south-westerlies will transport more heat from the tropics in the region. This would create a
strong frontal uplift along the polar front, forming sub-polar latitude cyclones which would
then intensify in the area of Icelandic low due to availability of more moisture. Since a sub-
polar low pressure over the ocean dominates in winter, the behaviour of Icelandic low in
changing climate could be derived from basic climate dynamics. Conversely, for the Azores
high, subsidence tends to be stronger over ridges during summer, due to its confinedness to
the ocean and temperature being much lower than on land. It is the same subtropical high
that inhibits summer rainfall over the Mediterranean. On seasonal cycle, with an onset of
winter, a southward moving
and relative weakening of the
Azores high allows for the
southward movement and
expansion of Icelandic low. The
Azores high would likely
respond in same manner as a
result of climate change. Since
radiative heating and cooling of
land masses occur in summer
and winter respectively, land-
based low and high pressures
become most intense in
summer and winter
respectively. But, due to
contrasting thermal properties
of continents and oceans, ocean-based lows and highs intensify in winter and summer
respectively. Therefore, warming of continents in NH, would amplify the summer and winter
positions of this ocean-based Azores high. A simultaneous northward displacement in
average positions of the Azores high and Icelandic low would follow in response to a
northward shift of the ITCZ. Rather than developing a meridional pattern, stronger pressure
cells may expand more zonally. As a result of latitudinal shift, extratropical cyclones in
winter may steer on more northerly paths across the North Atlantic.

Also, a stronger than normal and more northerly axis for the Azores high in summer could
expand its effects further north into western European countries. The presence of a stronger
high pressure blocks the atmospheric convection, transport of moisture and cool air from
the ocean towards the European landmass, thereby increasing the likelihood of extreme
heatwave events in western parts. The effects could well be extended as warm, humid air
masses from the subtropics could reach the northern areas through northern periphery of
the blocking high. While Western Europe may witness increase in number of heatwave
events per summer, crops shortfall
from drought may become more
common in southern Europe.
Since ridging expands over
Bermuda in summer, the Azores
high also influences weather on
the eastern seaboard of the US.
The western periphery of the
Azores high creates southerly flow
of warm, moist tropical air driven
towards poleward and cooled to
create thundershowers. This flow
is typical for the climate of lower
east sides of the US. Thus, the
position of the Azores high determines how far northward monsoon moisture penetrates into
the US. Winter rainfall in the region is linked to polar front that reaches down into
subtropical latitudes. But, climate change could significantly modify the amount of seasonal
rainfall in the region. A stronger Icelandic low and the Azores high in future climate will
prevent the polar front activity plunging south than usual, resulting in a decline in winter
precipitation for those regions. Nevertheless, summer precipitation may increase as
increasing land-ocean thermal contrast and strengthening Azores high pull more southerly
flow from the Gulf into far northern reaches. Also, this may lead to increase in heatwave
conditions for the region in future climate as thunderstorms are short-lived and
combination of rain and heat increases humidity.
6.5.6 Atlantic storms and West African monsoon
Other major impact of the
summertime subtropical high
is the path of tropical
depression. Due to blocking
nature of high pressure system,
the Azores high serves as a
primary steering mechanism
for Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes. Because of anticyclonic nature, along the
equatorward side of this oceanic high, the clockwise circulation drives African tropical waves
away from the coastal West Africa towards the land masses in western portion of the ocean
basin, creating easterly flow. Summer heating of the West African land mass leads to the
formation of thermal low over northern Africa, and resulting temperature contrast between
warm Saharan air and cool monsoon air over the forest and ocean to the south along the
Gulf of Guinea coast creates lower tropospheric wind known as African Easterly Jet (AEJ).
AEJ attains maximum wind in peak of summer located north of the ITCZ at a height of
around 600 hPa. In comparison, ITCZ, a strong convective belt of low pressure where trade
winds from NH and SH meet, circles the Earth east to west near the equator with upward
motion that reach around 200 hPa. This low-level African jet blow from East to West Africa
in low tropospheric trade wind flow towards the tropical east Atlantic Ocean. A stronger jet
is linked to a negative soil moisture gradient and lack of precipitation over sub-Saharan
Sahel region largely due to the upper level divergence of moisture occurring below the level
of condensation. Nevertheless, a small north-south atmospheric disturbance in zonal
circulation of African Easterly Jet generates a weak but convectively active trough of low
pressure, causing areas of cloudiness and thunderstorms. These wavelike disturbances of
AEJ are known as African Easterly Waves (AEWs). The first AEW formation and associated
weak convection signal initiate over high terrains of North-East Africa. AEWs are carried
westward by the low level easterly surface winds along the tropics and are associated with
the ITCZ. Because these waves move along the axis of ITCZ, convective heating in the zone
increases thunderstorm activity. While most of the convective rainfall occurs within the
ITCZ, AEWs are also identified as key driver of West African summer monsoon.
Occasionally, a westward propagating tropical wave, after departing Africa and passing over
the East Atlantic, either combines with other clusters of thunderstorms or rapidly gathers
strength feeding off the warm, moist air from the tropical ocean. Slowly, this deep moist and
shallow convection develops into tropical cyclone. Therefore, strength and location of AEWs
and AEJ play important role in determining the frequency and intensity of Atlantic
hurricanes and African monsoon.
In the context of climate change, it is understood that a southward excursion of the ITCZ
during low summer insolation periods in NH could have restricted the penetration of
moisture transport in North Africa, expanding the dry zone further south. As desertification
continued across the region, strong dry convection strengthened the zonal flow of AEJ. An
enhanced jet flow and drier conditions could have increased dust transport out of Sahara
and across the Atlantic. These dust plumes and a more southerly position of AEJ could have
significantly reduced number and strength of Atlantic hurricanes, since a strong zonal flow
means less disturbances in jet and more dust in the air which blocks the sunlight cooling
any layer below it. In contrast, a surge of dust transport could have worsened the dust
outbreaks in region around the West Atlantic. Because AEWs are linked with convective
rainfall, weakening of which could have significantly reduced monsoon strength in areas
from West Africa to as far as Ethiopian Highlands in the east. However, it is likely that, with
the warming of northern continents, increased south-westerlies will enhance the moisture
content over North Africa. Increased moist convergence leads to increased cloudiness, thus
offsetting the warming effect. A more positive meridional soil wetness gradient shall weaken
the easterly flow of African jet above the surface south westerlies. A weakened jet stream
and wet conditions may diminish Saharan dust emissions in future climate. A weakened
African Easterly Jet may as well push further north, accompanying the northward shift in
the average position of the land ITCZ over West Africa. Since the AEW activity is connected
to the concentration of ITCZ and strength of the AEJ, the energy of the AEWs is expected to
become larger as a weaker, more northerly jet means more north-south instability. While
stronger AEWs could mean more rain to the southern Sahara desert in future, on the flip
side, it could influence the likelihood of a strong tropical cyclone formation. However, among
other factors, equally significant is the intensity and position of the Azores High as it affects
not only the path of tropical cyclones but also water temperature needed for the cyclone
formation. Air divergence at surface level causes air near the high pressure system to
become drier and warmer. A strong subsidence and drier air prevents the formation of
clouds. And, since the clouds are rare in the zone, the Sun heats the ocean surface more
directly, allowing the water temperature to rise. Increasing SST in the region provides extra
fuel for easterly waves moving in the direction of east and northeast Caribbean. So, the
strength and location of this ocean based cell determines heat energy available for both
cyclone generation and further
intensification when one develops. Like
many other climate features, common
occurrences of weaker, equatorward
displaced Azores high would have
coincided with low intensity periods of
summer insolation in NH. A relatively cool
water temperature, along with other
factors, could have reduced the number
and severity of hurricanes while
maintaining paths of those developed
farther to the south. This setup for tropical
Atlantic storms could have limited landfall
threat to the lower south shorelines,
making the Gulf coast states most
vulnerable. However, the intensification
and more northward displacement of the
Azores high in response to climate change could steer storms on more northerly paths in
future. Also, a gradual warming of the ocean surface near strengthening Azores high could
transform tropical waves (AEWs) into tropical storms or hurricanes with higher landfall
probabilities.
6.5.7 North Pacific Ocean analogy and Asian monsoon
Analogous to pressure cells over the North
Atlantic, a well-developed low pressure
system in subpolar and a high pressure
system in subtropics exist over the North
Pacific Ocean. Known as the Aleutian low
and North Pacific Subtropical High, these
pressure cells control the climate of California and other north western US coastlines. These
systems act similar as those in Atlantic, and therefore respond to climate change in identical
fashion over a long term. Changes in weather patterns on eastern sides of the pressure cells
are also akin to those of Europe and the Mediterranean. Most of California enjoy the
Mediterranean climate, regional pattern change in climate will likely move most of winter
precipitation to areas farther north. The intensification of ocean-based NPSH together with a
northward shift of the NPSH and polar fronts may
aggravate extreme weather events such as
droughts and wildfires in California. Whereas the
subpolar north-east pacific coastlines will continue
to lose precipitation falling as snow to rain due to a
northward displacement of polar jet and Aleutian
low. Furthermore, a northward axis of the North
Pacific Subtropical High in future climate could
steer cyclone paths up north and increase landfall
threats in the region of East China Sea. In addition
to the latitudinal shift, an intensification of the
summertime NPSH would enhance south easterly
winds on its western flank, heightening the threats of excessive rainfall and flooding in the
region of the Philippine, South and East China Seas.

Even as summer monsoons are

likely to bring more rain in SE Asia
and southern parts of East Asia,
winter precipitation is expected to
fall throughout much of the region.
The variability of winter monsoon is
strongly dominated by the intensity
of high pressure cell that develops
over the Eurasian land mass. A
radiative cooling of the Earth
surface in winter causes cold, dry
arctic air to invade south and develop a strong anticyclonic circulation known as the
Siberian High. A differential heating between the Siberian high and warm oceans near the
equator causes the cold, dry winds to sweep down from the northeast towards the South
China Sea. And as it does so, these winds pick up moisture through the South China Sea
which is subsequently released after moving onto the SE Asian land masses. Since the
Siberian high plays critical role in the development of north easterly flow, changes in the
intensity of this Arctic high pressure system would certainly generate East Asian Winter
Monsoon anomaly. Insolation forced climate change may weaken this continental high in

future which in turn likely reduce rainfall activity during winter monsoon. Arguably, this
land-based Siberian high would have been intensified during low insolation periods in NH
which would have amplified winter monsoonal activity. However, because of low orbital
eccentricity, a relatively low extent of glaciers on land during these periods could
significantly reduce climate response time to a future insolation changes. Also, greater
landmasses could induce a rapid response of northern hemisphere to a northward shift of
the caloric equator. As a result, warming of northern landmasses would lead to weakening
of the wintertime continental highs and warmer winters over regions affected by these highs.
Using climate model based on precession driven changes in solar insolation, its possible to
answer how weather patterns in locations thousands of miles away correlate with climate
anomalies in the arctic region. For example, a connection between winter Arctic Oscillation
and the East Asian winter monsoon has been noted through the influence of AO on Siberian
high. The possible mechanism governing the relation between winter AO and SH lies in the
airflow that originates from the North Atlantic sector. A downward motion of airflow
maintains the SH in winter. So, when AO is in positive (negative) phase, downward motion is
remarkably weakened (strengthened), which further influences the SH. This indicates that
winter AO extends its influence on climate in the Arctic and the North Atlantic sector to as
far east as extra-tropical Asia. Other notable correlations include: cool phase of ENSO-
related weather anomalies tend to favour strengthening of the west to east jet (pAO). A warm
(cold) phase of the Arctic Oscillation leads to stronger (weaker) trade winds within the
tropics. The position of the NH subtropical ridge can be displaced by ENSO climate cycle,
with La Ninas (El Ninos) allowing for a more northerly (southerly) axis for the ridge.

Here, although climate projections predict an overall gradual shift towards a one dominant
mode of climate anomalies, a seesaw between the possible modes may continue during a
changeover as ocean waters in SH are warmer while continents in NH witness rise in
temperature. Because of this, the latitudinal position of mean ITCZ may follow a similar
path though having a definite direction of movement over a long period. Also, while
precession appears to affect spreading and melting of glaciers and ice sheets, eccentricity,
according to orbital theory, should regulate the extremity of glaciation in NH.

6.5.8 Meridional Overturning Circulation

Although atmospheric heat transport towards the poles is considerably larger than its
oceanic counterpart, the thermohaline circulation plays important role in supplying energy
and nutrients to the polar regions. Changes in the state of circulation can have significant
impact on marine ecosystem productivity. The global MOC is mainly triggered by the sinking
of deep water at high latitudes caused by increased water densities through evaporative
cooling and sea ice formation. The sinking of dense water masses occur in relatively small
specific areas of the North Atlantic and the Southern ocean. To maintain a balance, water
rises gradually across much larger area and most of this deep upwelling happen in the
Southern Ocean for a reason that the winds are strong around the open latitude band of
50-60 S. While strong west-east winds in SH may initiate upwelling, it is somewhere north
of the Southern Ocean (due to Coriolis Effect ) that dense deep water is transformed to light
water. Climate change can affect vertical mixing process in the North Atlantic and thus deep
water formation by modulating the freshwater content in the northern part of North Atlantic.
Freshwater influx in the polar North Atlantic comes mainly from Arctic sources which
include glaciers, precipitation and run-off from Siberian rivers.

ARCTIC SYSTEM & ITS RESPONSE IN CHANGING CLIMATE

Two major components of the Arctic system, Beaufort gyre and transpolar drift stream, are
primary drivers in regulating the freshwater budget of the ocean basin. Beaufort Gyre is a
clockwise ocean circulation found in the western part of the Arctic Ocean. This anti-cyclonic
rotation results from the prevailing wind circulation of the Polar High. In a clockwise
circulation regime in NH, the Coriolis force moves the ocean water inwards (to the right)
towards the centre of gyre where it accumulates anything floating including freshwater and
sea ice. Sea ice and freshwater that become trapped in the Beaufort Sea could persist for
many years, drifting around the basins large, looping current. Because of this build-up of

The increasing eastward momentum imparted to the surface waters by the winds causes water to drift
outward from the Earths rotation axis (in other words, equatorward) as the best way to increase its radius.
ice and freshwater, Beaufort gyre is considered a large freshwater reservoir in the Arctic. A
continuous circulation allows sea ice more time to grow and increase in thickness. On the
other hand, the transpolar
drift stream carries water and
ice right across the Arctic
Ocean from the Siberian coast
of Russia into the North
Atlantic Ocean. The stream
contributes to the export of
freshwater out of the Arctic
Ocean through three exit
ramps (Hudson, Davis and
Fram Straits). Thus, the relative strengths of BG and transpolar drift explain discrepancies
in the residence time of sea ice and in freshwater flux of the Arctic. Because both are driven
by winds, natural variability in atmospheric circulation patterns produce conditions that
affect these ocean currents.

Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are two such atmospheric states that
influence the Arctic circulation system such that freshwater is stored within the Arctic
under one mode and release under opposite mode. Since the negative phase of AO & NAO is
associated with weak westerly winds and more southward penetration of cold polar air, the
Beaufort Gyre is typically strong and increases in surface area during this phase. A strong
polar high leads to enhanced anti-cyclonic (clockwise) motion and the development of older,
thicker ice in BG. Also, persistent cooler conditions during more active AO- and NAO-
periods promote retention of the Arctic ice through summer melt and more sea ice
formation. A reduced or blocked north-flowing paths of Siberian rivers due to inland
advance of ice affect the drainage of freshwater, with decreased supply to the Arctic ocean
and increased flow to the Caspian and Black seas. Because the transpolar current is caused
by freshwater inflow from Russian rivers and westerly winds that push Arctic waters east
before exiting into North Atlantic, a decreased river run-off from Siberia and weak westerlies
diminish the freshwater leakage into the North Atlantic. Thus, a large Beaufort Gyre, a weak
Transpolar Drift Stream, and above normal icy conditions under frequent episodes of AO- &
NAO- cause northern waters more saline and cold, increasing water density. These settings
provide an ideal environment for a strong deep water formation in the North Atlantic, as
would have been the case during precession driven southward shift of the mean ITCZ.
Because frequent occurrences of AO- and NAO- modes (over a longer timescale) tend to
accompany the equatorward migration of the mean ITCZ, the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation could have been strengthened during this time. However, increased

volume and depth of deep water formation in the North Atlantic would not have had much
benefit to regions near the northern end of THC as cooler atmosphere and more saline
waters up north could have helped northward flowing surface ocean waters from south to
increase water density quickly and subside before reaching the northern end of its cycle. In
addition, a southward shift of tropical rain zone would have reduced freshwater
precipitation in the tropical North Atlantic, further increasing salinity. The extra saltiness of
north-flowing surface ocean water would also have helped water to sink quickly at latitudes
lower than its extreme northern boundary. Therefore, dominant AO- & NAO- events together
with a more southerly ITCZ would have contributed to a pronounced vertical movement of
deep water masses and thus enhanced the AMOC. Nonetheless, both mechanisms would
also have diverted the current that transport waters northward and cause it to instead
circulate more south, shifting the boundary of North Atlantic Deep Water in same southerly
direction. It is possible that during colder times the Arctic Ocean between the extended ice
cover of America and Eurasia would not have been frozen but would rather have only
shallow ice presence.

FEEDBACK FROM SOUTHERN SOURCES

Processes in NH are often regarded as the main drivers of AMOC and thus the thermohaline
circulation through their influence on NADW formation. However, southern hemisphere
oceans also play a key role in changing the ocean circulation and perturb the AMOC. Since
the upwelling of deep water masses in the Southern Ocean is linked to atmospheric forcing,
atmospheric variability mode (SAM) at latitudes of the Southern Ocean can influence the
ocean current (Antarctic Circumpolar Current) and the deep water upwelling offshore
Antarctica. Southern Annular Mode (aka Antarctic Oscillation) operates in similar way as its
northern counterpart AO, with positive (negative) phase associated with band of mid-
latitude winds moving south (north) towards the Antarctica (Equator). When considered over
millennial or longer timescales, like AO, this varying climate pattern should also be in some
way controlled by north-south movement of the mean ITCZ. A southward migration of the
mean ITCZ could, in theory, strengthen poleward moving prevailing surface winds of the
ferrel cell. Increased thermal contrast could allow more surface westerly winds to penetrate
south. Consequently, stronger winds push the low pressure mid-latitude belt that circles
Antarctica more south. Increased penetration of warmer air from north and strengthening of
the low pressure belt transport a larger moisture flux poleward, freshening the upper layer
of Southern Ocean. Also, warmer than normal conditions reduce ice cover, making the top
layer of ocean waters relatively warmer and less saline. Since most of the warmer surface
ocean water that forms the upper part of thermohaline circulation originates from various
ocean basins in SH, decreased water density in south and increased in north, during the
equatorward shift of the mean ITCZ, could have strengthened the global MOC (in accord
with pole to pole framework). Moreover, as the belt of circumpolar westerly winds increased,
the surface ocean current of the Southern Ocean (ACC) would have been intensified through
the transfer of momentum by the enhanced wind flow. Eventually, this would have resulted
in increased upwelling of the dense deep waters through Ekman dynamics, counteracting
the greater production of deep water masses in the North Atlantic. Nevertheless, reduced
density of water mass in the Southern Ocean could still have caused the bottom water
formation surrounding the Antarctica but occupied lower depth range. As well, meridional
changes in the westerlies could have displaced the wind-driven circumpolar current such
that the beginning of both flows within the Southern Ocean- a northward Ekman transport
and subsequent rising of water below the depth, could have occurred further south. Overall,
through a series of interconnected components of climate system, the equatorward
movement of the mean ITCZ could have caused a southward shift and intensification of not
just the AMOC but the entire oceanic conveyor belt.

Another important control factor for the

AMOC which has southern sources as its
origin, is the Agulhas System. The system
consists of a strong western boundary
current, the Agulhas Current, which
carries warm, salty waters from the
Indian Ocean south along the east
African coast around a region at the
interface between the Indian and the
Atlantic Ocean. It then turns back into
the Indian Ocean to join the Southern
Circumpolar Current. The Agulhas
Return Current gradually completes the
return flow of the subtropical Indian
Ocean Gyre. While most of the water
loops around to remain in the Indian Ocean, the retroflecting current intermittently leaks a
variable fraction into the relatively fresher Atlantic Ocean. Warm ocean water that escapes
into the South Atlantic, known as Agulhas Leakage, eventually flow into the Northern
Hemisphere and sets the southern control for the AMOC variability. Because the Agulhas
Leakage flows through a gateway between the southern tip of the African continent and the
Subtropical front- a northern boundary of the Southern Ocean which separates warm, salty
subtropical waters in the north from the colder subantarctic waters of the south, the
latitude of the STF may dictate the volume of Indian Ocean waters releasing into the
Atlantic. If the front shifts northward, the pathway contracts and there is a less inter-ocean
exchange of waters south of Africa. While a southward shift in the STF would enlarge the
gateway and promotes more leakage of surface ocean waters into the Atlantic. Since warm
southern westerly winds substantially determine the location of STF, a narrow zone of
transition between water masses of contrasting density could have been pushed more south
during intervals when southern mid-latitude winds from the subtropics shifted further
south. This also signifies that a southerly displaced STF could likely be a more prevalent
position during an equatorward shift of the mean ITCZ. A poleward shift of westerly winds
and the oceanic subtropical front, in response to a southward migration of the mean ITCZ,
could have attributed to peaks in Agulhas Leakage. A larger AL could have served as a

positive feedback on climate as it would have led to increased heat and salt import in the
North Atlantic, enhancing the AMOC. Also, increasing AL transport into the NH could have
stabilized a southward transport of ocean heat carried by deep ocean waters of the AMOC.
During these periods, these waters could also have been the main source of oceanic heat
transport for the surface branch of the AMOC.

LIKELIHOOD OF A FUTURE SLOWDOWN

With a steady long-term shift in climate conditions, the strength of overturning circulation
may exhibit a transition from a strong to a weak state. In a precession forced climate, the
climate patterns that support strengthening of the THC, slowly over time, are switched to
different modes such that large scale changes in local winds, temperature, and salinity
significantly hinder the ability of ocean currents to produce one large circulation system and
cause the currents to instead circulate more regionally. As it is known that AO and NAO are
two such modes that influence the ocean circulation, a gradual transition towards a more
dominant positive phase could undermine the formation of deep water masses by increasing
freshwater and sea ice export towards the North Atlantic. Since a positive phase of AO and
NAO is connected to stronger than normal prevailing winds and more northward penetration
of westerlies (in other words, northward shift of an average position of jet), the atmospheric
high pressure system over Beaufort Sea is typically weaker during this phase, leading to a
slower rotation of the gyre. A smaller and slower rotation of gyre causes freshwater and
perennial ice to easily drift out and away from the gyre centre. Also, relatively above average
temperatures during AO+ and NAO+ make it vulnerable for ice to survive the melt season
and tend to slower the growth rate of ice as less ice that survives the summer melting
thickens the following winter. As ice sheets are thinned, freshwater inflow to north into the
Arctic from various river sources increases. Since the majority of freshwater supply in the
Beaufort Sea include flow from south through Bering Strait, precipitation, discharge from
Siberian and Canadian rivers, the region of Arctic increasingly become fresher to a greater
influx during more active periods of AO+ & NAO+. Similarly, more sea ice melt and decline
in ice formation under a weak clockwise rotation of gyre increases freshwater content in the
Beaufort Sea. However, a reduced surface area of gyre accumulates freshwater less
efficiently. The trend towards salinity anomaly in Canadian basin under the weaker BG can
be contrasted to positive trends in Transpolar current which could be explained by
increased runoffs from the Siberian rivers and strengthening of the westerlies under the
influence of AO+/NAO+. A stronger Transpolar Drift is diverted in a counter-clockwise path
where this drift stream is drawn closer to the BG and interferes deep into the northern edge
of the BG. More freshwater from Russian rivers is brought towards the Beaufort Sea but a
weaker gyre circulation and strong TPD cause more sea ice and freshwater to sweep out
towards the North Atlantic subpolar region.

Thus, a weaker BG, a stronger TPD, increased precipitation

in high northern latitudes, decrease in multi-year sea ice
cover during more active AO+/NAO+ periods could create a
cold temperature anomaly of ocean surface waters in the
subpolar North Atlantic as water flushing into the region is
cold (if not colder) but fresher (or less saline), making it less
dense and less likely to sink. Once in North Atlantic, these
relatively cold, fresher northern waters slowly mix with
warmer waters from south, and further reduce the water
density. The stability of the AMOC could severely be affected under these conditions, forcing
surface ocean waters from south to penetrate far north extreme into the Arctic before they
become dense enough to allow the formation of deep water masses. Less dense top layer of
water and stronger prevailing mid-latitude winds could bolster the far north movement of
the surface current. However, the volume and depth of deep water formation in this part of
the ocean may be reduced due to relatively warmer temperature and low ocean salinity,
impacting the thermohaline and thus the climate. A more restricted vertical movement of
water masses could affect the rate at which ocean waters are exposed to the surface, at the
same time, locking deep ocean waters at depths for a longer time. It is widely believed that
the MOC is the reason that the climate of Europe is so temperate and a slowdown would
trigger cooling in western and north-western parts of the Europe. However, other factors
such as atmospheric waves that bring warm air north from the subtropics, could influence
the climate more than the ocean current. Because the atmospheric heat transport is larger
than the ocean, the AMOC-related cooling could be more than offset by atmospheric
warming. Nonetheless, the region could become a hotspot for rising seas as a major
consequence of reduced deep water formation and melting of the land ice in North Atlantic.
In recent times, there have been changes of a similar kind occurring in the Arctic and North
Atlantic subpolar region. Some of these changes in and around these regions include:
retreating glaciers in Greenland and northern Canada; thicker & older ice being replaced by
younger & thinner ice sheets; more Arctic marine organisms living near the sea bottom are
forced to compete and mix with larger species from the south; large amounts of water from
rivers draining into the Arctic as a result of thawing on land; shrinking of land-locked
Caspian and Black sea due to changes in water balance, freshwater supply, and loss of
upper layer water through evaporation as land temperature rises. Could these changes in
northern high latitudes suggest indirect responses to low-latitude solar forcing? Since more
dominant intervals of AO+/NAO+, over millennial timescales, are incidental to a northward
displacement in the mean latitude of the ITCZ, both mechanisms work together to change
the temperature and salinity in North Atlantic such that the water density is reduced,
causing a slowdown of the AMOC. Also, a less favourable ocean condition up north could
shift the boundary of NADW in more northerly direction.
A coherent large-scale changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions in SH could as well
disrupt the ocean conveyor belt in unexpected ways. The hemispheric asymmetry could be a
fundamental feature of the climate systems response to a change in radiative forcing,
whereby ocean dominated southern hemisphere may not warm at all as temperature in
northern hemisphere increases. A subsequent cooling in SH in relation to a slow northward
excursion of the mean ITCZ could theoretically reduce the thermal contrast, weakening the
poleward moving prevailing surface winds of the ferrel cell. A more restricted southern flow
shifts the band of prevailing mid-latitude winds towards the equator. Consequently, the low
pressure belt that circles the Antarctica
too shifts northward, allowing the cold
Antarctic air to move north. Weaker than
normal westerly winds and pressures
higher than usual over the southern
ocean ease the poleward moisture
transport, causing upper layer of water in
the southern ocean more dense. Also,
increasingly cooling trend over the
southern ocean could lead to extensive
freezing and increased sea ice growth,
further enhancing the salinity of the
surface layer. A colder than normal and
more saline seawater intensify the
sinking of the surface layer and thus the
production of bottom water masses in the southern ocean. Surface ocean current of the
southern ocean is the only current that flows around the globe and links all major oceans
(Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific oceans). Since the current is largely wind driven, a northward
drift of water parcels could be restricted as the transfer of eastward momentum to surface
waters is decreased under weaker than normal wind flow, affecting the inter-basin exchange
and the process that involves the transformation of waters into light surface waters. A
reduced deep ocean upwelling and enhanced sinking of dense water masses could drop sea
level in the southern ocean at times the sea level is expected to come up around the North
Atlantic. Thus, in accord with pole to pole framework, decreased water density in north and
increased in south, may slowdown the ocean global conveyor (based on the fact that most of
the warmer surface ocean water that forms the upper part of thermohaline circulation
originates from various ocean basins in SH). Moreover, a slower southward transport of
North Atlantic Deep Water and greater deep water formation within the southern ocean
could result in most of waters from deep upwelling to retain and circulate in south. Another

possible implication for the ocean circulation could be a more northerly displaced wind-
driven southern ocean circumpolar current as circumpolar wind belt shifts latitudinally in
response to a slow northward movement of the mean ITCZ. Because this circumpolar
current acts as a barrier that separates the southern ocean from relatively warmer northern
oceans, changes in latitudinal position allows the Antarctic sea ice zone to expand up north.
The bottom water production sites could also follow along with these changes in position.

A similar set of events have been reported in more recent observed climate and these
include: frequent cold fronts and cut-off lows enveloping the southern parts of Australia as a
result of more cold air from the southern ocean are moving north; plummeting winter
temperature, record snow and wintertime rainfall are becoming more common feature in
these parts of the region as climate slowly shifts towards a more dominant SAM- mode; a
consistent advance of wintertime sea ice maximum around the southern continent;
penguins and other cold-weather creatures are able to stand farther north on Southern
Hemisphere sea ice than has ever been recorded. Could these changes be the first signs of a
long term climate change primarily influenced by external climate forces such as
precession?
7. Conclusion
Climate change is an undeniable and unavoidable fact. What it means to all living beings on
Earth is to accept, adapt and evolve. Since Natural forces are bound to occur, the effects of
climate change cannot be stopped. Stages of climate change are gradual and could take
hundreds or thousands of years for its effects to be felt overall. This relatively longer span
could have helped life on Earth migrate to safe places, breed and evolve to survive in
changing weather conditions. While it is true that natural forces drive these changes
considerably; human influences cannot be undermined. Human carbon emissions serve as
an echo effect that further amplifies these negative effects of climate change. Therefore,
efforts must be made to minimize Human contribution to these nature driven changes. It is
upon us to carefully examine the limited options we have to slow down the impacts on
climate. The choices we make in the present will determine our future.

Also, binary theory somewhat explains changes in the Earths orbital parameters and
correlation observed between these changes and the Earths climate. Though many factors
affect the climate on Earth, it is the binary cycle that links them all. This few thousand
years binary cycle can be seen as an evolutionary path for science and mankind, rather not
as a cycle of creation and destruction or any apocalyptic in nature. Nonetheless, it is a
nuclear war, fueled by greed and hatred, remained to be the single most threat to progress
of humanity and life as we know it. Mankind has been through these binary driven changes
many times in the past but surely, the same cannot be said for current global economy, a
concern over which climate issues are excessively addressed. Hopefully, our ever expanding
knowledge on climate change and universe would help save lives and minimize economic
losses from disasters.
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