Coupling of Markov Chains and Cellular Automata Spatial Models to Predict Landcover

Changes (Case Study: Upper Ci Leungsi Catchment Area)

Landcover changes especially in developing country has been rapidly occur. Landcover changes
occur as a result of increasing demand for built-up area. Various kinds of environmental
problems can happen if the changes of landcover are uncontrolled. This study tried to predict
landcover changes using coupling of Markov Chains and Cellular Automata with a case study of
catchment area which has a rapid landcover changes and evaluated the ability of Markov Chains
and Cellular Automata in this region. One of the most rapid landcover change in a catchment
area is Upper Ci Leungsi catchment area which located near Bekasi City and Jakarta
Metropolitan Area. Markov Chains has a good ability to predict the probability of changes
statistically while Cellular Automata is powerful method in reading the spatial patterns of
changes. The multitemporal landcover data was obtained by remote sensing satellite imageries.
In addition, this study also used multicriteria analysis to give the driving factor which could
stimulate the changes such as: proximity, altitude, and slope. Coupling of this two methods could
give a prediction model that more accurate than just using its separately. The prediction model
was validated by using existing 2015 data and satisfactory Kappa Coefficient was shown about
82,58%. The most significant increasing landcover is built-up area from 24% to 53%. Result of
this study is very useful because it can be applied in a wide range of study that related to
landcover changes, for example: flood control, spatial planning, urban heat island, disaster
management, and other application.

Keywords :

Landcover Changes, Markov Chains-Cellular Automata, Multicriteria Analysis, Driven Factors