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MPvCO QQ RC|xcdown AQ588 - not quite strong enough to 4b/GII pre, otr after t go
es x-x go for an overbet -
hes not folding AK, he could have AJ/Axs
EPvBB 22 R|X|X|70 KT3Q6 - otr we probably get a fold from 99-33 and villain is b
etting Qx
BUvBB AQbb xb 984(b)r
3b vs EP - I think KK+ is basically the range we're happy to 3b/5b ai vs UTG. S
o, if utg is playing 4b or fold versus a 3bet, then we want to 3bet KK+ and add
some bluffs.
On the other hand, if utg is calling much more often we'll want to 3b hands with
more value in 3b pots, typically stuff like AKo or QQ. We also might want our
bluffs to block his 3b calling range as well in this second case.
Perceived range really bothers me for some reason, I guess I'm in the minority.
I feel like we always have to put our opponent on a hand and figure out what's
going on in a hand, and 'perceived range' seems like a piece of jargon
that doesn't really add anything to that. Plus it seems like for people learni
ng the game, perceived ranges are really confusing. I even see video producers
say things like "x is my perceived range", which is really misleading
because once we take the "I think" modifier out of the sentence it's like our as
sumptions are a black box we're not going to consider for the rest of the analys
is. It's particularly bad for beginners to get in the habit of asserting percei
ved ranges everywhere to justify their plays.
At 20.50 where the guy 3 barell AJ on KQxxssJ what are their factors you conside
r when you say that it might be okay? Wouldn't he have more hands to bluff here
like backdoor clubs and hands like 54s with a bdfd etc? What about check/jamming
with AJ isn't that a fairly reasonable hand since it's going to win vs a bunch
of like JT etc if you check back?
Good question. By far the most important factor for me is the showdown value of
AJ when the river goes X/X. IP will almost always have JTo, and occasionally J9c
c or J8cc, and occasionally a hand like A3 or A6 which floated turn.
I'd think on the J river, if villain checks then IP will bluff with A3 always, a
nd probably A6 as well quite often. So, if that's true then, AJ wins at showdown
against JTo (often), and J9cc/J8cc sometimes. Overall it seems quite close, as
the AJ blocker will do well reducing IP's 2PR/ST frequency and so will be an exc
ellent bluffing blocker. Overall though I think AJ is going to win at showdown 5
-8% of the time (maybe, I haven't run the numbers) and I don't think the A/J blo
ckers will get enough extra folds to make bluff better than X.
I ran a quick CREV sim on this spot
http://gyazo.com/29109378f900c4ef59a5a53d701fd267
Cliffs are basically that AJo might be an OK bluff if you think villain folds A3
/A6 on turn and calls with more Qx. If you think villain calls A3/A6 and mixes i
t up with Qx, then it's bad to bluff AJ because having the A blocks villain's fo
lding range on river. I would default to calling A3/A6 and folding some Qx on tu
rn, in which case the EV of bluffing AJ is around -1.7bb, and the EV of checking
is 2.7bb. So it's a fairly big swing.
Even if IP is more Q heavy on the turn, I just don't quite see AJ working out as
a bluff, checking has too much value (~6.5% of pot, so I was close with my orig
inal guess).
I think the best way to answer this is just to say that if you're betting a more
polarized range, then tend to size up the betsize, and if you're betting a less
polarized range, tend to size down. You'll notice I'm betting some stuff like A
T on 226r or something for value/protection against the blinds, so you can see t
hat I'm betting a less polarized range.