Professional Documents
Culture Documents
www.eni.it
Maurizio Maugeri VP eni R&M
Agenda
9 WorldandEurope oilproductsdemandandsupply
2
World demand growth driven by Far East, Market
transports remain fundamental challenges
1000
500
9Demanddrivenby transports
9~70%(670Mton) middledistillateincrease by2025
3
Far and Middle East leads the way in world demand
growth and new refining capacity additions challenges
Market
MBd
Oilincrementaldemand20102020
Oilincrementaldemand20102020 Primaryrefiningcapacity20102020
Primaryrefiningcapacity20102020
Cina and
India
Middle
East
North
America
Latin
America
Europe
OECD
Russia
Africa
Total
NewrefiningcapacityinAsia,MiddleEastandLatinAmerica
Matureeconomiesarereducingrefiningcapacityof~2Mb/dinnext5yearsofwhich
Europeisclosingformorethan600kbd withnoforeseennewinvestments
Mt Growthofdiesel/gasoildemand
400
Growthof jet/kero demand
300
Dropoffueloil usein:
200
inland
100
bunker
Demandincreaseformaritime diesel/gasoil
0
2000 2005 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025
12%
2010 2015 2020 2025
Mt
Gasoline 100 100 90 85
Diesel/Gasoil 305 320 325 330 57%
Jet\Kero 60 70 80 85 22%
Fueloil 82 80 79 78
547 570 574 578
Trasports Petrochemicals
CivilUsesSevicesAgriculture Industry
Thermoelectrical
5
Europe growing dieselization, Market
ratio gasoil/gasoline reversing challenges
Mtoe DemandEU27
450 Demandintransports
400
400
350
300 300
250
200 200
150
100 100
50 0
0 2010 2020 2030
2010 2020 2030
Road&Rail Marine Aviation
Transport Construction Industry Other Electric F&L
Mtoe
marine
9 Estimate by 2030 road transport gasoline and 90 1,4
dieseldemand:trendgasoil consumption inEU
50 0,7
double vsgasoline
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Fonti:elaborazionienisudatiWM,Parpinelli,IEA
6
Europe - supply not matching demand Market
challenges
Mt SURPLUS 2009
2010
80 2015
2020
2025
60
Substitution
Substitution with
with natural
natural
Insostituzioneconilgas
gas
gas in
in thermal
thermal plants
plants and and
nellalimentazionedellecentrali
40 with
with gasoil
gasoil inin bunker
bunker
termicheeconilgasolioneibunker
20
20
40 Reducing
Reducing production
production for
Produzioneincaloperaumento for
high
high conversion
conversion refineries
refineries
Raffinerieadaltaconversione
60
80 RefinerySupply2010e2025
100 728Mton 752Mton
LPG BENZINA JET/KERO LSFO HSFO
DIESEL/GASOIL LPG
DEFICIT Naphtha
Gasoline
2,3%
7,9% MiddleDistillates
19,4%
Residual fuel
Gasoline anddieselunbalance inEurope 47,4%
Other
120 BRENT
89.6% 90%
100 16,0
83,2%
80 80%
WTI
60 14,0
70%
40
Newoperators
TRADINGHOUSES INDEPENDENTS NOCs
CNPC
Fonti:elaborazionienisudatiWM,Parpinelli
8
Europe disadvantages vs big refineries in Market
Asia and Middle East challenges
9
Market
Europe what to expect in the next future challenges
Supply/demandbalance
9 Consumptionsreduction
9 GasolineexportstoUSAreduction
9 Refiningovercapacity
9 Unbalance:gasolinesurplus,dieselshortage
Systemconstraints
9 Severeenvironmentalconstraints(biofuel,
CO2,authorizationiter)
Optimizationandrationalizationof 9 Highlabourcosts
EUrefiningsystem
9Diseconomyofscale
9Plantsmaturity
10
Europe A rationalization process Market
Refineries inEurope
Closures since 2009
Atrisk of closure
Grangemouth
Operational
Teeside
Stanlow
Lindsey
Killingholme Wilhelmshaven Schwedt
Sold
Milford Haven Elbe Hamburg
Coryton
Leuna
Pembroke
Fawley
Dunkirk
Karlsruhe Ingolstadt
Gonfreville Petit
Corounne Reichstett
Burghausen
Mantova
Cremona Arpechim
Trecate
Venezia
Berre Sannazzaro
ACorunaa Busalla
Bilbao Falconara
Livorno
LaverFortdeFrance
Tarragona
Oporto Roma
Izmit
Puertollano Castellon Taranto Kirikkale
Milazzo
Sines Sarroch Izmir
Augusta
Palos Gela Priolo
Cartagena
Gibraltar
11
Bunker: gradual fuel oil substitution Market
Fueloilconsumebysector Oilconsumeforbunker
100 50
0 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Civil Industry Thermo-elettrical Bunker Olio
Fuel combustibile
oil gasolio
Gas oil
12
The Mediterranean Sea Market
challenges
1% of world water surface, a third of worlds merchant shipping traffic
MediterraneanTankers
MediterraneanTankers
Mton
450 421 Emissions*
400
~1,7Mton/y
350
300
250
200 9 Over 200.000 merchant vessels of over 100 gross
150
101
tonnage are believed to cross the Mediterranean Sea
100 eachyear
50
0
9 More than 2000 ferries, 1500 cargo ships and 2000
localcommercialcraft (including300tankers*)operate
Oil Oilproducts
permanentlyintheMediterranean
Source: adpted from David Hughes Mediterranean Round-up
worldbunkering, 31 May 2010
*Sox 13
World oil supply by 2030 mainly from Market
OPEC and unconventional challenges
100
Iraq 5,3
80
SaudiArabia 3,9
60 Brasile 3,1
Canada 2,3
40
Kazakhstan 2,3
20
EAU 1,1
NonOpec
0 Venezuela 1,2 Opec
14
Feedstock quality Market
World heavy oil supply growing challenges
Mbl/d
120 102,3
100,2 102,5
94,8
100
82,4 82,3
30,9 30,8 30,3
80 29,9
24,2 25,2
60
48,8 50,4 49,5
40 47,0
43,5 42,5
20 18% 22%
14,7 14,6 17,9 20,5 21,3 22,5
0
2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
*Oil+NGL
Source: WoodMackenzie 15
Heavy oil production Market
concentrated in three regions challenges
68%of MiddleEast
HEHOfrom Iraq
+1,1Mb/d
20082030
mainly
LatinAmericaHEHOfrom
Brazil +0,7
Brazil andVenezuela
Venezuela +0,4
HeavycrudeproductioniscurrentlydominatedbyMexicosMayagrade
by2020significantincreasesinCanadian,IraqiandSaudiproductionareexpected
Source: WoodMackenzie
16
Market
The refinery constraints challenges
Feedstockquality
Productsquality &
environmentalregulations
17
Agenda
9 WorldandEurope oilproductsdemandandsupply
18
eni main leverages: Enisanswers
19
Enisanswers
Technological leadership
Fuels andlubricants Tecnologieambientali
9 New lubricants and fuels Blu+ Pilot plant for treating, reducing and
developed. Studies ongoing to distribute inactivating refinery waste/muddies, (less than
gasoil Milan Formula to all the sale 97%)
network
Biofuels
9 Hydrotreating technology of vegetable oils
(EcofiningTM,eniUOP),
9 Testing forproducing biodieselof 2 generation Refiningprocesses
from microalgae ongoing atGelarefinery
9 Totalconversion (ESTproject)
9 Derivatives from bio ethanol have been
9 New catalyst sistems for improving
studying to bypass problems deriving from
hydrotreating processes (ProMilanFormula)
direct ethanol use
Ethanol
9 New proprietary
Microalga
derivatives technology of high
e
20
Enisanswers
Technologies for Petroleum Residue Upgrading
Severalcommercialtechnologiesconversionofvacuumresiduatolighterproducts
IncreaseoflowH/CofresiduatohigherH/Cofproductsviathermalorcatalytic:
carbonrejection(thermal) hydrogenaddition(catalytic)
Cokingoffershighfeedstockflexibility Fixed/Movingbed(lowmetalscontentfeed)
but Ebullating bed(relativelyhighermetalsfeed)
poorerqualityofdistillates but
lossofliquidyield, limitsthemaximumconversionachievable
ca.30%wtoflowvaluecoke fueloilremainsafatalproduct
21
Eni believes in flexibility and complexity and is Enisanswers
EniSlurryTechnology(EST)
EniSlurryTechnology(EST)
Abreakthroughtechnology
Abreakthroughtechnology
DOWNSTREAM
DOWNSTREAM
UPSTREAM
UPSTREAM
9
9 Upgradingrefineryconfiguration
Upgradingrefineryconfiguration
9
9Valorizationofunconventionaloil
Valorizationofunconventionaloil 9
9 Producing
Producingadditional
additionaldistillates
distillatesfrom
from
9
9Upgrading
Upgrading bitumen
bitumen produced
produced from
from residues(zerofueloil
residues(zerofueloil zerocoke),
zerocoke),
theworldhugereserves
theworldhugereserves withoutincreasingtoppingcapacity
withoutincreasingtoppingcapacity
Italsoprovidesthenecessaryfitbetweentherigidityofsupply
Italsoprovidesthenecessaryfitbetweentherigidityofsupply
andvariabilityofrefinedproductsdemand
andvariabilityofrefinedproductsdemand
22
Enisanswers
Endof2012
23
Agenda
9 WorldandEurope oilproductsdemandandsupply
24
Refining support measures Supporting measures
Assets protection and strengthening
Protection Strengthening
25
Supporting measures
Conclusions
9 Oilwillremaintheprimaryenergysourceatleastforthenext30years
9 TheEuropean Med refiningscenarioisgloomy andprobably will continueinthe
next future
9 Existingunbalancesonproductsandoilsiderequiremaxflexibility
9 The technological leverage is crucial to provide flexibility and relaunch the
refiningbusiness,aswell asintegration andefficiency leverages
9 Eni has developed a proprietary technology which will be crucial in the
competitive environment of the next future. Maximum value to the technology
withheavyandextraheavyoil,lowgaspricesandnoemissioncosts
9 Assets rationalization isnecessary to changetheproductionstructure
9 Actions aiming to descourage unfair competition andpreserve astrategic sector
areneeded
9 Environmentalboost should be addressed inarational andconcretewayforthe
communitywellbeing
26