Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Who we are
Long range forecast goals
Spatial load analysis basics
Components of spatial load forecasting
Load center prediction
Results and looking ahead
United Power Facts
Rural electric
cooperative
headquartered in
Brighton, CO
Incorporated in
October of 1938
Wires hot in 1940 to
750 customers
Nearly 65,000
customers today
covering 900 square
miles
Historically fast
growing up to
5000 new accounts
per year
Among the top 10
fastest growing
coops nationwide
Long range forecast goals and tasks
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
19 99
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
96 6
1
19 99
97 7
1
19 99
98 8
1
19 99
99 9
2
20 00
Monthly
00 0
2
20 00
01 1
2
20 00
MonthlyDemand
02 2
2
20 00
03 3
Demand--1998
2
1998to
20 00
04 4
NO SPATIAL COMPONENT
2
20 00
to2008
Summer Peak
05 5
2008
2
20 00
06 6
2
20 00
07 7
2
Winter Peak
20 00
08 8
2
20 00
09 9
Summer Peak Demand Linear Forecast
Summer Peak Demand Linear Forecast
600000
600000
500000
500000
NO SPATIAL COMPONENT
400000
Peak Demand (kW)
400000
Peak Demand (kW)
300000
300000
5yr trend
200000 5yr trend
200000 Historic
Historic
100000
100000
0
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Spatial Load Forecast Approach 3 components
3. Point Loads
Internal knowledge of future large
commercial loads from district reps
Base map preparation
need to know where youve been to know where youre going
Spatial Join
Rasterization
monthly)
Oracle view used to Manual Read
Carrier Line AMR
extract CIS data to SDE 35% 55% Drive-by AMR
instance
Revolving billing cycle
makes capturing monthly
peak difficult
GROUP BY BI_SRV_LOC.BI_SRV_MAP_LOC
Base Map Preparation
Base Map Preparation
Load table preparation
Millions
Monthly Coincident Peak Demand
300 120
250 100
(kW)
200 80
150 60
100 40
50 Demand (kW) 20
Energy (kWh)
0 0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Base Map Preparation
Energy (kWh) to Coincidental Power (kW)
1
Peak Power -
2
3
Energy Average Power Peak Power Coincidental
3.5
Peak Load - Noncoincidental 30
Average _ Load
Peak _ Power Noncoincidental=
3 kWh LF Energy
Average _ Power = Biling _ Period
25
Peak _ PowerCoincidental = CF *Hours
Peak _Biling
Power
_ PeriodNoncoincidental
2.5
20
2
Peak Load - Coincidental
Energy (kWh)
Power (kW)
15
1.5
Average Power 10
1
5
0.5
Typical United
Power System
0 Peak 0
00
00
00
00
00
0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
:0
0:
2:
4:
6:
8:
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Base Map Preparation
Understanding Load Factors and Coincident Factors
3.5
3.5
3 .20
3 .20
3
3
2.5
2.5
C oin cid ent Fac tor ( CF ) = .5
C oin cid ent Fac tor ( CF ) = .5
Lo ad Fa cto r (L F) = .3 2
2 Lo ad Fa cto r (L F) = .3 2
Power (kW)
2
Power (kW)
1 .6 0
1 .6 0
1.5
1.5
1 .04
1 .04 A v era ge P o wer
A v era ge P o wer
1
1
0.5
0.5
0
0
:0 0
:0 0
:0 0
:0 0
:0 0
:0 0
2 : :0 0
4 : :0 0
:0 0
0: : 00
6: : 00
8: : 00
1 2 2: 0
1 4 4: 0
20 0 : 0
2 2 2: 0
10 0 :0
16 6: 0
18 8: 0
0
0
00
00
0
00
00
00
0
2
Tim e ( hr)
Tim e ( hr)
Residential
Peak _ PowerCoincidental R = LF * Average _ Power * CF
Industrial
Peak _ PowerCoincidental I = Peak _ Power * CF
LF
Peak Power -
Energy Average Power Peak Power Coincidental
CF
D
3307-1713-0 3307-2013-0
3307-2012-0 S ND
AR
3307-1213-0 3307-1313-0 3307-1513-0
3307-1612-1 3307-1813-0 3307-2213-0 HEN OAH 3307-2513-0 3307-2613-0
3307-2612-0
AN ST
D
LEV
3307-1512-1 3307-1812-1 3307-2012-0 3307-2212-1 DO RE
AR
3307-1312-1 AH ET 3307-2612-0
3307-1612-1 3307-1912-0
OU
LEV
3307-1512-1 3307-1812-1 3307-2212-1 ST
3307-1312-1 3307-1512-0 3307-1612-0 RE
HB
3307-1812-0 3307-1912-0 3307-2212-0 3307-2412-0 E
3307-2512-0T
OU
3307-1312-0
Spatial Join
3307-1512-0 3307-1612-0 3307-1911-1
NC
HB
3307-1812-0 3307-2212-0 3307-2412-0 3307-2512-0
+
3307-1312-0 3307-1511-0 3307-1611-1 3307-1811-0
RA
3307-1911-1 3307-2111-0 3307-2411-0
NC
3307-1311-0 3307-2611-0
3307-1511-0 3307-1611-1 3307-1911-0
AIN
3307-1811-0
RA
3307-1611-0 3307-2111-0 3307-2411-0
3307-1311-0 3307-1411-0 3307-1711-0 3307-2611-0
VR
3307-1911-0 3307-2310-0 3307-2410-1
AIN
3307-2110-1
3307-1310-0 3307-1411-0 3307-1611-0 3307-1910-1 3307-2510-1
INT
3307-1711-0
VR
3307-2310-0 3307-2410-1
3307-1410-13307-1510-1 3307-1710-0 3307-2110-1
3307-1310-0 3307-2410-0
SA
3307-1910-1 3307-2510-1
INT
3307-1210-0 3307-1510-1 3307-2110-0 3307-2210-0
3307-1410-1 3307-1910-0
3307-1710-0 3307-2410-03307-2510-0
SA
3307-1410-0 3307-1510-0 3307-2110-0 3307-2210-0
3307-1210-0 3307-1709-1 3307-1910-0 3307-2510-0
3307-1209-1 3307-1410-0 3307-1510-0 3307-1809-1 3307-2109-1 3307-2209-0 3307-2409-0
3307-1709-1 3307-2509-0
3307-1209-1 3307-1409-0 3307-1609-0
3307-1709-0 3307-1809-1 3307-2109-1 3307-2209-0 3307-2409-0
3307-2309-0 3307-2509-0
3307-1209-0 3307-1409-0 3307-1609-0 3307-1809-0 3307-2109-0 3307-2208-1
3307-1709-0 3307-2508-0
3307-2309-0
3307-1209-0 3307-1408-0 3307-1608-0 3307-1708-0 3307-1809-0 3307-2109-0 3307-2208-1
3307-2508-0
3307-1208-0 3307-2308-0
data + vector
3307-1206-0 3307-1606-1 3307-1806-0 3307-2007-0
3307-1306-0 3307-1406-03307-1506-0 3307-1606-0 3307-1706-0 3307-1906-0 3307-2306-0 3307-2406-0
3307-2106-0
3307-1206-0 3307-1606-1 3307-1806-0 3307-2206-1
SAGE STREET
SAGE STREET
grid
3307-1305-0
3307-1205-0 3307-1505-0 3307-1605-0 3307-2205-0 3307-2505-0
3307-2405-0 3307-2405-1
3307-1405-0 3307-1505-1 3307-1705-0 3307-1905-0 3307-2005-0 3307-2105-0 3307-2305-0 3307-2605-0
3307-1305-0 3307-1505-0 3307-1605-0 3307-1805-0 3307-2205-0 3307-2405-0 3307-2505-0
3307-2003-0 3307-2303-0
3307-2003-0 3307-2303-0
Summarizes for
each grid cell,
+
number of
customers, usage
(kWh), demand
(kW), and
coincident peak
demand (kW) 250, 500, and
1000 ft grid cells
ArcToolbox tool
Polygon to Raster
converts vector
polygon feature vector
class to geotif
Raster files are
much easier to
analyze,
manipulate, and
perform algebraic
computations
ESRIs Spatial
Analyst used for raster
raster manipulation
Gilcrest
Summer - July
Mead
Platteville
Hygiene
Longmont
Erie
Valmont Wattenberg
Boulder Lochbuie
Lafayette
Brighton
Winter - January Louisville
Nederland
Marshall Superior
Eldora
Thornton
Pinecliffe Eldorado Springs
Wondervu Crescent Eastlake
Broomfield Henderson
Rollinsville
East Portal
Northglenn
2008
2002-2008 coincident peak timeline
2002
2002 2008
2008
4,000
NumberofofClosings
4,000
3,500
3,500
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500 Function
FunctionfitfittotoAnnual
Annual
2,000
2,000 averages
Number
1,500 averages
Rolling
1,500 RollingAnnual
AnnualClosings
Closings
1,000
1,000
500
500
00
4Q03
4Q03 4Q04
4Q04 4Q05
4Q05 4Q06
4Q06 4Q07
4Q07 4Q08
4Q08 4Q09
4Q09 4Q10
4Q10 4Q11 4Q11 4Q12
4Q12 4Q13
4Q13 4Q14
4Q14 4Q15
4Q15
Quarter
Quarter(Q)
(Q)
Mead
Mead
Platteville
66
Platteville
Circular shapes are from
ene
ene
66
Longmont
Longmont
85 multiplying the estimated area
85
25 Firestone of a lot by the number of lots
wot
25 Firestone
Frederick
Keenesburg
Keenesburg
wot 287
287 Frederick
Dacono
Dacono
52 Fort Lupton
Fort Lupton
Hudson
Hudson
and converting it into the area
52
Erie
Erie
Wattenberg
of a circle.
Wattenberg
Lochbuie
Lafayette Lochbuie
Louisville
Lafayette
42 Louisville
470
7
7
Brighton
Brighton
76
76
uperior 42
uperior
470
Thornton
Future platted subdivisions
Thornton
Broomfield
Broomfield
Eastlake
Eastlake
Henderson
Henderson forecasted to go online based on
121
Northglenn
Northglenn
44
44 Denver International Airport onsite activity.
en
121
Federal Heights 2
2
Commerce City
Commerce City
Denver International Airport
en
95
95
Federal HeightsDupont
Westminster
Westminster Dupont
36
Niwot
287
25
Frederick
Hudson Correctional F acility
Boulder Scientific
Keenesburg
119 Dacono
Fort Lupton
1600kW
Hudson
3000kW
Prospec t Valley
Erie 2000kW
Vestas
Valmont Wattenberg 18000kW
15 7 Palisade Park
LEED's Manufacturing
Boulder 7
Lafayette
2000kW Mc Whinney
7000kW
2500kW
42
470
5000kW 1800kW
Marshall Superior
2
Thornton Aspen Reserve Adams Crossing
79
Eldorado Springs 372kW 2375kW
Broomfield Eastlake
Henderson
93
128
Northglenn
Walmart
Otho Stuart 540kW
44 0kW
72
121
Federal Heights South Adams Water - Pumping Station
Brighton High school No. 3 Denver International Airport
500kW
Leyden 1192.5kW
95 Westminster Dupont
Metrostudy
+ Point Loads
+
x (scale factor
dependent
on year)
Explanation of scale factor
Load (MW)
400
Load (MW)
No double counting! 400
300
300
Commercial - 200
200
281
281
124
124
Metro Study 0
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
500
450
+ + =
400
350
+ + =
300
281
250
200
150
100
50
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2017 Plains Forecast
Gi lcrest
Summer - July
Mead
Platteville
Hygiene
Longmont
Firestone
Keenesburg
Niwot
Frederi ck
Dacono
Fort Lupton Hudson
Erie
Valmont Wattenberg
Boulder Lochbuie
Lafayette
Louisvi lle Brighton
Marshall Superior
Thornton
rado Springs
Broomfield Eastlake
Henderson
Northglenn
Arvada
Load Centers: Substation influence areas
60
60
60
Heavily loaded
60
36
56
56
85
256
256
85
36
feeders no more than
4 miles in length Del Camino
Del Camino
Physical Barriers
66
Slater
Slater ((
66
(
Interstates Rinn Valley
( Davis
Davis Homestead
(Rinn Valley Homestead
Railroads
25
(
25 (
Hudson
(
Hudson
Rivers
287
287 (
(
(Dacono Fulton
Coal Mine (Dacono 52 Fulton
Coal Mine ((
52
(
infrastructure Storm Chaser
157
157
Erie
Erie
( Storm Chaser (
(
Xylophone
Xylophone
Parkway
( Platte( Valley
42 Parkway
( (Green7
Platte( Valley Bromley
(
42 (Green (
Bromley
170
Henderson (
170 (
Henderson
76
( Barr Lake
( Barr Lake
76
( Prairie Center
22
119 ( ( 22 Prairie Center
79
Lincoln Hills
Lincoln Hills
119 (
Crescent
Crescent
128
128 Silver Saddle
79
Silver Saddle
( (
( (
93
( 44 (
((
72
72
93
( 44 (
Reunion
Reunion
Blue Mountain
( Blue Mountain
46
Ralston Creek
Ralston Creek
( 46
224
470
470
224 265
53 265
53 270
121 270
35
121
35
58
58
95
70
70 40
40
95
6
6
2
2
30
30
Load Center Forecast
Current feeder extents
34
402
257
Current switching 60
60
56
85
256
verses optimal
switching 36
configurations
Del( Camino
66
Platteville
(
Switching changes as Rinn Valley
(
25 Hudson
(
Frederick
287 Dacono
(
( Fulton
52
(
Brighton Dist
( Lochbuie
157
Platte Valley
(
Parkway
Bromley
( Green
(
42 ( (
Barr Lake
170 Henderson
(
Lincoln Hills (
76
( Crescent
22
119 (
128
Riverdale Silver Saddle Reunion
(
93
( 44 ( (
(
72
Ralston Creek
(
46
224
265
470
53
270
121
35
58
95
70
40
Load Center Forecast
Find Load Center ModelBuilder Model
Influence Areas and Load Centers
Legend
Legend
Substation
!> Plains Dist. Load Center - 2017
( !> Substation
Plains Dist. Load Center - 2017 influence
- Existing
( Substation - Existing
boundaries
Del Camino
Del Camino
defined
Slater !>
Slater !> (
!> (
!>
Heavily loaded
( Davis
Davis
!>
!>
Homestead !>
Homestead !>
feeders 4 miles
Rinn Valley !>(
(
Hudson
(
Hudson
!>
!>
!>(
Dacono!>(
Physical Barriers
Coal Mine
( Fulton !>
Brighton-Dist
(
Interstates
Brighton-Dist
Storm Chaser
Henry Lake/Lochbuie
Railroads
( >!
Henry Lake/Lochbuie
Erie !> ( !>
Storm Chaser
!> Legen
Rivers
Xylophone
Erie !> !> !> ( Xylophone
Legen
!> Pl
!> (
( !>SuPl
!> ( Su
Bromley !>
Parkway (
( !>
Platte Valley
!
( > !>( Bromley !>
( !>
( !> !>(
Green
Green
!>
Henderson !>
(!>
Henderson Barr Lake
!> (
( (
!> (
( (
Reunion
Reunion
(
(
Slater ( ( ( (
Slater
^^^^ ^^^ DelCamino
( ( DelCamino
( (
^
((
((
Davis Homestead
Davis Homestead
^^^^ ^^^^
RinnValley ( (
^^^^ ( RinnValley ( (
( Hudson
( Hudson
Dacono
^^^^ Plains video
^^^^ Dacono (
Fulton
( (
Fulton
CoalMine ( (
^^^^
CoalMine (
^^^^
(
( South video
(
(
BrightonDist
Erie BrightonDist StormChaser
^^^^
Erie
^^^^ StormChaser
( (
^^^^
(
(
^^^^
(HenryLake/Lochbuie
(
( (
Parkway ( (HenryLake/Lochbuie
Parkway Xylophone
^^^^ ^^^ PlatteValley Bromley
PlatteValley Bromley Xylophone
^^^^
(
^^^^ ^^^^
( (
^( (
( Green
Green
Henderson
Henderson
(
( BarrLake
BarrLake
^^^^
^^^^ ^
( (
( PrairieCenter (
( PrairieCenter
^^^
SilverSaddle
( SilverSaddle
(
^^^^
(
^^^^
( (
( ( (
Reunion
( Reunion
(
Load Center Forecast
Power Used (MVA)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Barr Lake
5.
4
44
Bromley .9
19
Coal Mine .1
27
Dacono .1
53
Davis .3
26
Del Camino .0
Erie
8.
3
18
Fulton .7
13
Green .1
15
Henderson
2007
2012
2017
.7
18
Henry Lake/Lochbuie .2
9.
Homestead 5
Influence Area
23
Hudson
Load Statistics by Influence Area
.5
42
Parkway .5
44
Platte Valley .4
19
Prairie Center .6
49
Reunion .9
50
Rinn Valley .8
38
Silver Saddle .7
24
Slater .7
33
Storm Chaser .4
12
Xylophone .2
0
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
NOAA DMSP Nighttime Lights
NOAA DMSP Nighttime Lights
Berthoud
Gilcrest
Mead
Platteville
Hygiene
Longmont
Firestone
Keenesburg
Niwot Frederick
Dacono
Fort Lupton Hudson Prospect Valley
Erie
Valmont Wattenberg
Boulder Lochbuie
Lafayette
Louisville Brighton
Nederland Marshall Superior
Eldora
Thornton
Pinecl iffe Eldorado Springs
Wondervu Broomfield Eastlake Henderson
Rollinsville Crescent
East Portal
Northglenn
Denver International Airport
Federal Heights Commerce City
Leyden Dupont
Westminster
Western Hills Adams City
Mountain View
Empire Wheat Ridge Bennett
Golden Edgewater Watkins
Idaho Springs Denver Aurora
Pleasant ViewEdgemont
Looking ahead