ROYAL GOLD NDQ-RGLD RECENT

PRICE 63.45 P/ERATIO 35.3(Trailing:

Median: 54.0) P/E RATIO 1.79 YLD 1.5%
48.8 RELATIVE DIVD VALUE
LINE
TIMELINESS 3 Lowered 12/2/16 High:
Low:
35.7
15.4
41.7
23.0
36.5
23.3
49.4
22.8
56.0
34.2
55.2
41.2
83.9
45.4
100.8
57.0
83.4
38.6
82.8
47.0
77.2
34.4
87.7
24.7
Target Price Range
2019 2020 2021
SAFETY 3 New 1/8/16 LEGENDS
15.0 x Cash Flow p sh
TECHNICAL 2 Lowered 1/6/17 . . . . Relative Price Strength
Options: Yes
160
BETA .95 (1.00 = Market) Shaded area indicates recession 120
100
2019-21 PROJECTIONS 80
Annl Total
Price Gain Return 60
High 135 (+115%) 22% 50
Low 90 (+40%) 11% 40
Insider Decisions 30
F M A M J J A S O
to Buy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20
Options 6 0 0 1 1 0 13 0 0
to Sell 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 15
% TOT. RETURN 11/16
Institutional Decisions THIS VL ARITH.*
1Q2016 2Q2016 3Q2016 STOCK INDEX
Percent 45 1 yr. 97.0 13.7
to Buy 141 155 127 shares 30
to Sell 120 90 131 3 yr. 61.7 20.4
traded 15
Hlds(000) 45453 45434 45168 5 yr. -8.9 92.2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 VALUE LINE PUB. LLC 19-21
.54 .33 .68 .76 1.03 1.20 1.20 1.69 1.95 1.82 2.49 3.93 4.43 4.46 3.65 4.28 5.53 7.50 Revenues per sh 10.25
.29 .15 .72 .47 .59 .70 .66 .98 1.17 1.21 1.60 2.52 2.82 2.50 2.37 2.57 3.17 4.30 Cash Flow per sh 6.45
.22 .08 .59 .33 .42 .54 .49 .79 .61 .45 .78 1.29 1.61 1.22 .96 1.13 1.01 1.80 Earnings per sh A 3.40
-- .05 .08 .10 .15 .19 .22 .25 .28 .31 .35 .42 .56 .75 .83 .87 .91 .96 Divds Decld per sh C 1.08
.47 .12 NMF NMF .01 .01 1.86 .01 .48 4.60 4.25 5.08 4.66 4.85 1.23 .93 20.68 2.30 Capl Spending per sh 1.90
.87 .87 1.51 3.63 3.99 4.36 6.85 11.13 14.24 18.51 25.59 26.48 30.94 36.22 36.25 36.18 34.24 38.80 Book Value per sh 52.25
17.91 17.87 18.05 20.65 20.78 21.03 23.59 28.66 33.93 40.48 54.86 55.14 59.41 64.85 64.96 65.03 65.09 65.50 Common Shs Outstg B 66.00
17.7 36.2 12.1 55.5 43.9 31.4 58.0 37.6 48.8 85.6 60.1 39.9 43.4 60.5 59.1 60.2 47.4 Avg Annl P/E Ratio 33.0
1.15 1.86 .66 3.16 2.32 1.67 3.13 2.00 2.94 5.70 3.82 2.50 2.76 3.40 3.11 3.03 2.53 Relative P/E Ratio 2.05
-- 1.7% 1.0% .5% .8% 1.1% .8% .8% .9% .8% .7% .8% .8% 1.0% 1.5% 1.3% 1.9% Avg Annl Divd Yield 1.1%
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 9/30/16 28.4 48.4 66.3 73.8 136.6 216.5 263.1 289.2 237.2 278.0 359.8 490 Revenues ($mill) 675
Total Debt $674.0 mill. Due in 5 Yrs Nil. 62.3% 76.1% 75.9% 79.9% 82.3% 86.1% 88.7% 88.7% 84.4% 76.3% 68.0% 69.5% Operating Margin 76.0%
LT Debt $674.0 mill. LT Interest $22.8 mill. 4.3 8.3 18.4 32.6 53.8 67.4 75.0 85.0 91.3 93.5 141.1 165 Depreciation ($mill) 200
(23% of Capl)
11.4 19.7 24.0 16.4 34.1 71.4 92.5 77.0 62.6 73.7 65.0 115 Net Profit ($mill) 225
31.0% 31.0% 31.7% 34.1% 33.3% 33.5% 35.8% 45.6% 23.5% 18.4% 22.2% 22.5% Income Tax Rate 25.0%
Pfd Stock None 40.0% 40.8% 36.3% 22.3% 25.0% 33.0% 35.2% 26.6% 26.4% 26.5% 18.1% 23.1% Net Profit Margin 33.3%
Leases, Uncapitalized: None 81.5 91.0 202.1 312.5 335.5 140.4 430.0 709.4 713.5 765.8 142.1 165 Working Capl ($mill) 355
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan -- 15.8 15.8 19.3 222.5 210.5 293.2 302.3 311.9 322.1 600.7 675 Long-Term Debt ($mill) 750
161.7 319.1 483.2 749.4 1403.7 1460.2 1838.5 2348.9 2354.7 2353.1 2229.0 2540 Shr. Equity ($mill) 3450
Common Stock 65,315,629 shares 7.0% 6.2% 5.0% 2.2% 2.2% 4.5% 4.4% 3.3% 2.8% 3.2% 2.7% 4.0% Return on Total Capl 5.5%
as of 10/26/16 7.0% 6.2% 5.0% 2.2% 2.4% 4.9% 5.0% 3.3% 2.7% 3.1% 2.9% 4.5% Return on Shr. Equity 6.5%
MARKET CAP: $4.1 billion (Mid Cap) 4.0% 4.4% 2.7% .8% 1.4% 3.4% 3.4% 1.4% .4% .7% .3% 2.0% Retained to Com Eq 4.5%
CURRENT POSITION 2015 2016 9/30/16 42% 29% 46% 62% 43% 31% 32% 57% 85% 76% 90% 55% All Divds to Net Prof 32%
($MILL.)
Cash Assets 742.8 116.6 133.0 BUSINESS: Royal Gold, Inc. acquires and manages precious met- producing properties, 24 development stage properties, and 130
Receivables 37.7 18.0 24.0 als royalties, and metal streams. The company focuses on financ- exploration stage properties. Has 20 employees. BlackRock owns
Inventory (Avg Cst) -- 9.5 12.6 ing projects that are in production or in development-stage in ex- 7.4% of shares; Van Eck Associates, 7.6%; Vanguard Group, 7.4%;
Other 10.3 20.7 22.4
Current Assets 790.8 164.8 192.0 change for royalty interests. As of September 30, 2016, the compa- off/dir., 1.4% (11/16 Proxy). President & CEO: Tony Jensen. Inc.:
Accts Payable 4.9 4.1 6.1 ny owned stream interests on five producing properties and two de- DE. Address: 1660 Wynkoop Street, Suite 1000, Denver, CO
Debt Due -- -- -- velopment stage properties and owned royalty interests on 38 80202. Telephone: 303 573-1660. Internet: www.royalgold.com.
Other 20.1 18.6 19.5
Current Liab. 25.0 22.7 Royal Gold should benefit from its
25.6 mine, and Golden Stars Wassa/Prestea
amended streaming agreement with mines. Looking ahead, the Rainy River
ANNUAL RATES Past Past Estd 14-16 Centerra Gold. In October, Centerra mine will start production in the back-half
of change (per sh) 10 Yrs. 5 Yrs. to 19-21
Revenues 14.5% 10.5% 18.0% bought Thompson Creek Metals, the of the year, and Royals net-value royalty
Cash Flow 15.5% 9.0% 19.0% owner of the Mount Milligan mine. Royal at the Cortez mine will start in 2018. All
Earnings 8.0% 4.0% 27.0% had a gold streaming interest in the ven- said, Royal has a strong balance sheet,
Dividends 16.5% 19.5% 4.5%
Book Value 21.5% 8.5% 8.0% ture, allowing it to buy 52.25% of the gold and further royalty agreements this year
produced at $435 per ounce. Prior to the seem likely.
Fiscal QUARTERLY REVENUES ($ mill.) Full
Year Fiscal close of the deal, Royal and Centerra These shares are ranked to mirror the
Ends Sep. 30 Dec. 31 Mar. 31 Jun. 30 Year amended the streaming agreement so that broader market averages in the com-
2013 77.8 79.9 74.2 57.3 289.2 Royal would procure only 35% of the gold ing year. In November, the board raised
2014 56.5 52.8 57.8 70.1 237.2 production at $435 an ounce. Meanwhile, the quarterly dividend about 5%, to $0.24
2015 69.0 61.3 74.1 73.6 278.0 the difference was made up by Royal a share. The board has raised the dividend
2016 74.1 98.1 93.5 94.1 359.8
2017 117.9 118.1 125 129 490 receiving an 18.75% copper stream at 15% annually for 16 consecutive years, and we
Fiscal Full
of the spot price per metric tonne of copper expect this trend to continue over the pull
EARNINGS PER SHARE A
Year Fiscal delivered. Copper was trading at near 20- to 2019-2021. Note that the stock price has
Ends Sep. 30 Dec. 31 Mar. 31 Jun. 30 Year year lows relative to gold at the time, thus pulled back about 20% since our last full-
2013 .41 .42 .23 .16 1.22 the company was able to invest in copper page report three months ago, but was up
2014 .23 .16 .31 .26 .96 near its trough. Moreover, the deal al- about 70% for full-year 2016. The stock
2015 .29 .23 .38 .23 1.13
2016 .17 .23 .29 .32 1.01 lowed Royal to diversify its revenue base, still offers enticing 3- to 5-year capital ap-
2017 .46 .39 .45 .50 1.80 and to some extent lower the companys preciation potential, in our view. Most of
margin risk on the agreement. the companys costs are fixed, thus mar-
Cal- QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAIDC
Full The company reported record gins expand markedly when precious met-
endar Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year
quarterly revenues during the fiscal als prices head higher. All said, we think
2013 .20 .20 .20 .20 .80 first quarter (year ends June 30th), the current quotation marks a good entry
2014 .21 .21 .21 .21 .84 and we expect this trend to continue. point for speculative accounts with long-
2015 .22 .22 .22 .22 .88
2016 .23 .23 .23 .23 Royal is benefiting from the ramp-up of term investment horizons.
2017 .24 production at both Barricks Pueblo Viejo Wayne C. Nef January 6, 2017
(A) Based on diluted shares outstanding. Fiscal earning report due early February. Companys Financial Strength B+
years end June 30th. Excludes net nonrecur- (B) In millions. Stocks Price Stability 15
ring gains/(losses): 09, ($0.62); 10, ($0.29); (C) Dividends historically paid in January, April, Price Growth Persistence 40
13, ($0.13); 15, ($0.33); 16, ($2.19). Next July, and October. Earnings Predictability 55
2017 Value Line, Inc. All rights reserved. Factual material is obtained from sources believed to be reliable and is provided without warranties of any kind.
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