HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

12 January, 2017

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 VIEW POINT
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY
Rupee Likely To Strengthen on Weaker Dollar
EURINR JAN. FUT. Rupee yesterday closed at a six week low against the US dollar ahead
BUY ARND 72.15 SL 71.95 TGT 72.55 of the first press conference of the US president elect-Donald Trump.
The home currency closed at 68.33 a dollar--a level last seen on 1
December, down 0.22% from previous close of 68.18. The fall was
MAJOR CURRENCY attributed to the fear of protectionist measures that may be announced
by the president-elect Donald Trump ahead of his inauguration.
Prev. However, the dollar index overnight fell almost 1.5% after Mr. Trumps
Close Chg. % Chg. conference. The US 10 Year treasure also down 3bps to 2.34%.
Close
USDINR 68.330 68.183 0.147 0.22% India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will
DXY INDX 101.460 101.780 -0.320 -0.31% release CPI data for December today. The consensus forecast is for
EURUSD 1.060 1.058 0.002 0.16% inflation to ease to 3.53% from 3.63% in November. However, expects
inflation to pick up to 3.9%. The expected acceleration reflects base
GBPUSD 1.219 1.221 -0.002 -0.16%
effects in food prices and a spike in domestic fuel prices on higher
USDJPY 114.790 115.410 -0.620 -0.54% global crude oil prices. CPI inflation may reach just 4.4% by March,
DG USDINR 68.306 68.465 -0.159 -0.23% comfortably below the Reserve Bank of Indias 5% target, as per the
market consensus. Low inflation should give the RBI room to cut its
GLOBAL INDICES policy rate by 25 bps on Feb. 7.
The one month forward USDINR NDF last quoted at 68.39 from
Prev. yesterdays 68.65 indicating weaker opening of the pair at domestic
Close Chg. % Chg. bourses. Technically, spot USDINR is having resistance at 68.40 and
Close
support 67.70. Since last two month pair has been trading in broad
SGX NIFTY 8423.5 8397.0 27 0.32%
range of 68.40 to 67.70.
NIFTY 8380.7 8288.6 92 1.11%
Dollar nursed losses, disappointed from Mr. Trumps Speech
SENSEX 27140.4 26899.6 241 0.90%
The U.S. dollar nursed widespread losses today after President-elect
HANG-SENG 22920.5 22935.4 -15 -0.06%
Donald Trump's long-awaited news briefing provided scant clarity on
NIKKEI 19192.8 19364.7 -172 -0.89% future fiscal policies, disappointing bulls wagering on major stimulus.
SHANGHAI 3139.0 3136.8 2 0.07% Yet neither did Trump mention possible tariffs against Chinese exports,
S&P INDEX 2275.3 2268.9 6 0.28% a relief for Asian share markets that have feared the outbreak of a
DOW JONES 19954.3 19855.5 99 0.50% global trade war. The dollar index was nursing a grudge at 101.520,
having been as high as 102.950 at one stage overnight.
NASDAQ 5563.6 5551.8 12 0.21%
FTSE 7290.5 7275.5 15 0.21% Greenback fell as low as 114.245 yen yesterday, its deepest nadir since
Nov. 9, and last stood at 114.99, down 0.4% on the day.
CAC 4888.7 4888.2 0 0.01%
DAX 11646.2 11583.3 63 0.54% Dollar likely to remain under pressure in short term with down side
support around 99.43 while continue to resist at 103.80.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

USDINR crossed the previous top and touched upper band of the Bollinger Band indicating bullish trend. The pair closed at 68.33
up by 0.22%
Momentum oscillators RSI turned neutral on daily chart, but placed above center line suggesting neutral to bullishness.
The bias remains bullish till it holds the support of 67.70 with higher side target of 68.87.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR JAN17 68.49 68.43 68.16 68.24 68.36 68.56 68.63 68.76 Consolidation
EURINR JAN17 72.09 72.14 71.71 71.87 71.98 72.25 72.41 72.53 Bullish
GBPINR JAN17 83.21 83.18 82.56 82.76 82.99 83.41 83.61 83.83 Short Covering
JPYINR JAN17 58.94 58.97 58.60 58.74 58.84 59.07 59.21 59.31 Short Covering

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 68.37 67.75 68.51 67.33 68.86 66.07 68.13 68.03 67.82 67.31 67.13
EURINR 72.12 70.93 73.35 70.42 77.49 70.42 71.84 71.22 72.22 73.38 74.27
GBPINR 84.30 83.32 86.88 82.51 100.49 80.89 83.31 83.67 84.33 84.81 88.91
JPYINR 58.72 57.71 60.14 57.25 68.11 55.73 58.58 58.03 60.00 62.50 62.94

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Volume
Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 68.24 68.39 68.18 68.33 0.15 -- -- -- --
USDINR JAN. FUT. 68.37 68.51 68.31 68.49 0.16 1996014 302229 1748127 983316
SPOT EURINR 71.95 72.16 71.83 71.89 -0.28 -- -- -- --
EURINR JAN. FUT. 72.21 72.30 72.03 72.09 -0.28 34803 -4703 44359 -1013
SPOT GBPINR 83.02 83.12 82.74 82.96 0.11 -- -- -- --
GBPINR JAN. FUT. 83.24 83.38 82.96 83.21 0.09 32894 -1920 70873 11935
SPOT JPYINR 58.81 58.95 58.69 58.78 -0.03 -- -- -- --
JPYINR JAN. FUT. 58.99 59.10 58.87 58.94 -0.01 24642 -716 25716 -10869

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

01/11/2017 15:00 UK Trade Balance Nov -3550 -4167 -1971

01/11/2017 15:00 UK Industrial Production YoY Nov 0.50% 2.00% -1.10%
01/11/2017 15:00 UK Manufacturing Production YoY Nov 0.40% 1.20% -0.40%
01/11/2017 17:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 6-Jan -- 5.80% 0.10%
01/11/2017 20:30 UK NIESR GDP Estimate Dec 0.50% 0.50% 0.40%

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior

01/12/2017 15:30 EC Industrial Production WDA YoY Nov 1.40% 0.60%
01/12/2017 17:30 IN CPI YoY Dec 3.50% 3.63%
01/12/2017 17:30 IN Industrial Production YoY Nov -2.20% -1.90%
01/12/2017 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 7-Jan -- 235k
01/12/2017 19:00 US Continuing Claims 31-Dec -- 2112k

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]