HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

20 December, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 VIEW POINT
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY RUPEE TO START QUIET WITH CONSOLIDATION CONTINUES

The local currency closed at 67.88 per US dollara level last seen on 6
USDINR DEC. FUT. BUY AROUND 67.70 SL 67.55 TGT 67.95 December, down 0.15% from its previous close of 67.77. The strength
in dollar against major trading partners will drive the market in wafer
thin volume ahead of year end.
The benchmark 10-year government bond yield closed at 6.51%,
MAJOR CURRENCY
compared to Fridays close of 6.506%.
Foreign funds pared rupee-debt holdings by 3.5b rupees ($51.6m) on
Prev. Dec. 19, according to NSDL data; net buyers of $37.6m in Indian
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close equities on Dec. 16. exchange data.
USDINR 67.875 67.771 0.104 0.15% The one month forward USDINR NDF quoted at 68.11 from yesterdays
DXY INDX 103.040 102.86 0.180 0.17% 68.09 indicating muted start at domestic bourses. Technically, USDINR
EURUSD 1.041 1.044 -0.003 -0.25% future has been consolidating in the range of 67.40 to 67.95. The
GBPUSD 1.240 1.243 -0.002 -0.17% overall bias for the pair remains bullish above 68.
USDJPY 117.58 117.23 0.35 0.30%
Broad Dollar Gains Continues
DG USDINR 67.893 67.879 0.014 0.02%
The dollar brushed aside modest losses and traded higher as measured
GLOBAL INDICES
by the dollar index overnight, tracking a rebound in 10-year Treasury
yields from session lows and stemming a surge in the yen on Bank of
Prev. Japan left policy rate unchanged.
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close Bank of Japan maintains policy, keeping its target for the 10-year JGB
SGX NIFTY 8120.0 8132.0 -12 -0.15% yield at about 0% and maintaining negative rate of -0.1%. It keeps
NIFTY 8104.4 8139.5 -35 -0.43% target of 80t yen annual increase in JGB holdings. Central bank
upgrades view of economy, and says it has continued moderate
SENSEX 26374.7 26489.6 -115 -0.43%
recovery trend. USD/JPY climbs as much as 0.4% to 117.58, was at
HANG-SENG 21829.2 21832.7 -3 -0.02% around 117.23 before BOJ releases policy statement. The pair would
NIKKEI 19386.4 19391.6 -5 -0.03% resist around 118.66, the December 15 high.
SHANGHAI 3099.8 3118.1 -18 -0.59% Dollar gains after Fed Chair Janet Yellens said, the U.S. job market
S&P INDEX 2262.5 2258.1 4 0.20% has improved and wages are on the rise. The dollar index rising to
DOW JONES 19883.1 19843.4 40 0.20% 103.04 from yesterdays low of 102.52, coming within slight of its 14
year peak of 103.56 touched on last Thursday.
NASDAQ 5457.4 5437.2 20 0.37%
EUR/USD traded to a fresh session low at 1.040 and may test technical
FTSE 7017.2 7011.6 6 0.08% support at 1.0367, the low from Dec. 15.
CAC 4822.8 4833.3 -11 -0.22% The traders and investors reduce trading activity ahead of the
DAX 11426.7 11404.0 23 0.20% Christmas break and New Year Holiday starting this week end.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations
USDINR gains 0.15% to close at 67.88. From the above chart, we can the pair has been consolidating in the range of 67.90 to
67.30.
Recently, the pair had taken support around 67.30, the 61.8% Fibonacci level of previous low 66.34 to previous high 68.86.
Momentum oscillators exited from oversold conditions suggesting near term positive trend.
In near term, the USDINR could move towards 68.21 with support of 67.30.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR 67.91 67.86 67.62 67.68 67.80 67.97 68.03 68.15 Consolidation
EURINR 70.95 70.98 70.76 70.84 70.90 71.04 71.12 71.18 Bearish
GBPINR 84.49 84.57 83.92 84.17 84.33 84.73 84.98 85.14 Bearish
JPYINR 57.98 57.89 57.50 57.60 57.79 58.08 58.19 58.38 Short Covering

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 67.89 67.42 68.86 66.34 68.86 66.07 67.69 68.08 67.37 67.13 67.11
EURINR 72.02 70.71 75.64 70.71 77.49 70.71 71.18 72.29 72.99 73.89 74.56
GBPINR 85.88 84.13 86.88 82.31 100.49 80.89 84.93 85.42 83.69 85.51 89.88
JPYINR 58.78 57.25 66.11 57.25 68.11 54.57 57.95 59.60 62.03 63.87 63.05

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open Chg. In
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Chg. in OI Volume
Interest Volume
SPOT USDINR 67.81 67.88 67.71 67.88 0.10 -- -- -- --
USDINR DEC. FUT. 67.85 67.92 67.74 67.91 0.11 1808626 -319 578541 -77079
SPOT EURINR 70.85 70.98 70.79 70.85 0.03 -- -- -- --
EURINR DEC. FUT. 71.02 71.07 70.93 70.95 -0.04 37860 806 26352 -20966
SPOT GBPINR 84.57 84.70 84.30 84.39 0.02 -- -- -- --
GBPINR DEC. FUT. 84.74 84.82 84.41 84.49 0.02 28076 64 31988 -6023
SPOT JPYINR 57.60 57.90 57.60 57.90 0.55 -- -- -- --
JPYINR DEC. FUT. 57.70 58.00 57.70 57.98 0.49 39718 -4190 33149 7387

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior
12/19/2016 15:30 EC Construction Output YoY Oct -- 2.20% 1.90%
12/19/2016 20:15 US Markit US Services PMI Dec P -- 53.4 54.6

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior

12/20/2016 14:30 EC ECB Current Account SA Oct -- 25.3b
12/20/2016 JN BOJ Policy Rate 20-Dec -0.10% -0.10%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
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Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]