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P X k 1
k
F every k we have
For h
0 P X k 1
C
Cumulative
l ti DiDistribution
t ib ti ffunction
ti
The cumulative distribution function (cdf)
for a random variable X ((that can take
quantitative values) is the rule that assign
probabilities P X k for any
p yppossible
value k
Example: Roll a die
E
Expected
t d value
l
The expected value of a random variable
X is the mean value of the variable in the
sample space.
Example:
I play a game and the probability of winning
$2 dollars is 0
0.3
3 and the probability of losing
$1 dollar is 0.7. What is my expected gain in
this game?
Expected value=2*0.3+(-1)*0.7=0.6-0.7=-0.1
F
Formula
l off Expected
E t d value
l
To find the expected value you multiply
each outcome with its p
probability
y and yyou
sum everything.
That is
is,
E X xi P X xi
i
V i
Variance and
d St
Standard
d dD Deviation
i ti
n!
P X k p 1 p
k nk
k ! n k !
E
Expected
t d value
l and
d variance
i
When we have a Binomial distribution, the
expected
p value is calculated as:
E X np
Wh t iis going
What i tto b
be V
Var(X)?
(X)?
Continuous Random
Variables
C ti
Continuous R
Random
d V
Variables
i bl
Continuous random variable are those for
which the outcome can be any y value in an
interval.
The probability density function for a
continuous random variable is a curve so
that the area under the curve is the
probability that the random variable
belongs to that interval
P b bilit ffor continuous
Probability ti variables
i bl
P X 0.68
0 68
P 2 X 2 0.95
0 95
P 3 X 3 0.997
0 997
C l l ti a z-score
Calculating
Remember from Chapter 2 what we need
to do to convert any
y value from a normal
curve to the standard normal curve. We
need to standardize it using
g the formula
Score mean x
z
S d d deviation
Standard d
T bl
Tables
Example:
Let say, that the height of women have a normal
curve with mean 65 and standard deviation of 5
inches.
What is the probability of a woman being shorter than
60 iinches?
h ?
What is the probability that a woman is taller than 67
inches?
What is the probability that a woman is between 60
and 67 inches?
What is the probability that a woman is taller than 70
inches?
T bl
Tables
What is the height so that 25% of the women
are shorter than that height?
What the height of a woman should be in
order to be taller than at least 30% of all
women
Approximating binomial distribution
probabilities using normal distribution
If I flip a coin 100 times and denote with X
the number of times I g get a Head.
What is the distribution of X?
CONDITIONS:
10 n 1 p 10
np 10,