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Government Revenue
sponse to changes in the rate of taxation.
The Laer curve postulates that no tax revenue will be
raised at the extreme tax rates of 0% and 100% and that
there must be at least one rate which maximizes govern-
ment taxation revenue. The Laer curve is typically rep-
resented as a graph which starts at 0% tax with zero rev-
enue, rises to a maximum rate of revenue at an interme-
diate rate of taxation, and then falls again to zero revenue 0 t* 100
Tax Rate (percent)
at a 100% tax rate. The shape of the curve is uncertain
and disputed.[1]
Laer curve: t* represents the rate of taxation at which maximal
One implication of the Laer curve is that increasing tax revenue is generated. This is the curve as drawn by Laer,[8]
rates beyond a certain point will be counter-productive however, the curve might not have only a single peak or be sym-
for raising further tax revenue. A hypothetical Laf- metrical at 50%.
fer curve for any given economy can only be estimated
and such estimates are controversial. The New Pal-
grave Dictionary of Economics reports that estimates of able for taxation (or tax base). Thus revenue R is equal
revenue-maximizing tax rates have varied widely, with a to tB where t is the tax rate and B is the taxable base
mid-range of around 70%.[2] Generally, economists have (R=tB). At a 0% tax rate, the model assumes that no
found little support for the claim that tax cuts from cur- tax revenue is raised. The economic eect assumes that
rent rates increase tax revenues or that most taxes are on the tax rate will aect the tax base itself. At the extreme
the side of the Laer curve where additional cuts could of a 100% tax rate, the government theoretically collects
increase government revenue.[3][4][5][6][7] zero revenue because taxpayers change their behavior in
Although economist Arthur Laer does not claim to have response to the tax rate: either they lose their incentive
invented the Laer curve concept,[8] it was popularized to work, or they nd a way to avoid paying taxes. Thus,
in the United States with policymakers following an af- the economic eect of a 100% tax rate is to decrease
ternoon meeting with Ford Administration ocials Dick the tax base to zero. If this is the case, then somewhere
Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld in 1974 in which he re- between 0% and 100% lies a tax rate that will maximize
portedly sketched the curve on a napkin to illustrate his revenue.
argument.[9] The term Laer curve was coined by Jude Graphical representations of the curve sometimes appear
Wanniski, who was also present at the meeting. The ba- to put the rate at around 50%, if the tax base reacts to the
sic concept was not new; Laer himself notes antecedents tax rate linearly, but the optimal rate could theoretically
in the writings of the 14th-century social philosopher Ibn be any percentage greater than 0% and less than 100%.
Khaldun.[8] Similarly, the curve is often presented as a parabolic
shape, but there is no reason that this is necessarily the
case. The eect of changes in tax can be cased in terms
1 Theoretical issues of elasticities, where the optimal elasticity of the tax base
with respect to the tax is equal to 1. This is done by dier-
entiating R with respect to t and grouping terms to reveal
1.1 Justications that the rate of change of R with respect to t is equal to
the sum of elasticity of the tax base plus one all multiplied
Laer explains the model in terms of two interacting ef- by the tax base. Thus as elasticity surpasses one absolute
fects of taxation: an "arithmetic eect and an economic value, revenues begin to fall. The problem is similar to
eect.[8] The arithmetic eect assumes that tax rev- that of the monopolist who must never increase prices be-
enue raised is the tax rate multiplied by the revenue avail- yond the point at which the elasticity of demand exceeds
1
2 2 EMPIRICAL DATA
one in absolute value. lic good that is separable in utility and separate from labor
[15]
Wanniski noted that all economic activity would be un- supply, which may not be true in practice.
likely to cease at 100% taxation, but it would switch from The Laer curve as presented is also simplistic in that it
the exchange of money to barter. He also noted that there assumes a single tax rate and a single labor supply. Ac-
can be special circumstances in which economic activity tual systems of public nance are more complex. There is
can continue for a period at a near 100% taxation rate (for serious doubt about the relevance of considering a single
example, in war economy).[10] marginal tax rate.[2] In addition, revenue may well be a
Various eorts have been made to quantify the relation- multivalued function of tax rate; for instance, an increase
ship between tax revenue and tax rates (for example, in in tax rate to a certain percentage may not result in the
the United States by the Congressional Budget Oce).[11] same revenue as a decrease in tax rate to the same per-
While the interaction between tax rates and tax revenue is centage (a kind of hysteresis). Furthermore, the Laer
generally accepted, the precise nature of this interaction curve does not take explicitly into account the nature of
is debated. In practice, the shape of a hypothetical Laf- the tax avoidance taking place. It is possible that if all
fer curve for a given economy can only be estimated. The producers are endowed with two survival factors in the
relationship between tax rate and tax revenue is likely to market (ability to produce eciently and ability to avoid
vary from one economy to another and depends on the tax), then the revenues raised under tax avoidance can be
elasticity of supply for labor, as well as various other fac- greater than without avoidance, and thus the Laer curve
tors. Even in the same economy, the characteristics of maximum is found to be farther right than thought. The
the curve could vary over time. Complexities such as reason for this result is that if producers with low produc-
progressive taxes and possible dierences in the incen- tive abilities (high production costs) tend to have strong
tive to work for dierent income groups complicate the avoidance abilities as well, a uniform tax on producers
task of estimation. The structure of the curve may also actually [16]
becomes a tax that discriminates on the ability to
be changed by policy decisions. For example, if tax loop- pay.
holes and tax shelters are made more readily available by
legislation, the point at which revenue begins to decrease
with increased taxation is likely to become lower. 2 Empirical data
Laer presented the curve as a pedagogical device to
show that in some circumstances, a reduction in tax rates 2.1 Tax rate at which revenue is maxi-
will actually increase government revenue and not need to mized
be oset by decreased government spending or increased
borrowing. For a reduction in tax rates to increase rev-
enue, the current tax rate would need to be higher than
the revenue maximizing rate. In 2007, Laer said that
the curve should not be the sole basis for raising or low-
ering taxes.[12]
1.2 Problems
In 2012, economists surveyed by the University of
Chicago rejected the viewpoint that the Laer Curves
postulation of increased tax revenue through a rate cut
applies to federal US income taxes of the time in the
medium term. When asked whether a cut in federal in- An asymmetric Laer curve with a maximum revenue point at
come tax rates in the US right now would raise taxable around a 70% tax rate, based on estimates by Trabandt and Uh-
income enough so that the annual total tax revenue would lig (2011)[6]
be higher within ve years than without the tax cut, none
of the economists surveyed agreed and 71% disagreed.[13] The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics reports that
Laer assumes that the government would collect no in- a comparison of academic studies yields a range of rev-
come tax at a 100% tax rate because there would be no enue maximizing rates that centers around 70%.[2] In the
incentive to earn income. Research has developed the- early 1980s, Edgar L. Feige and Robert T. McGee devel-
oretical mathematical models in which a Laer curve oped a macroeconomic model from which they derived
can slope continuously upwards all the way to 100%,[14] a Laer Curve. According to the model, the shape and
but it is not clear whether or when the assumptions on position of the Laer Curve depend upon the strength
which such mathematical models are based hold in real of supply side eects, the progressivity of the tax sys-
economies. Additionally, the Laer curve depends on tem and the size of the unobserved economy.[17][18][19]
the assumption that tax revenue is used to provide a pub- Economist Paul Pecorino presented a model in 1995 that
2.3 Optimal taxation 3
Eective Tax Rate vs. Top Income Tax Rate would have to be made up by federal borrowing: the pa-
20%
per estimates that the federal government would pay an
extra US$200 billion in interest over the decade covered
13.9%
15% by the papers analysis.[11]
12.7% 12.8%
12.0%
10.5%
10%
2.3 Optimal taxation
5%
Main article: Optimal tax
One of the uses of the Laer curve is in determining the
0%
28-35% 36-50% 51-70% 71-90% >90%
Employment Growth Rate 1940-2016
Years 15 19 12 5 15
7%
Top Income Tax Rate 6.4%
6%
Average Growth
4%
2.7% 2.8%
predicted the peak of the Laer curve occurred at tax 3%
rates around 65%.[7] A draft paper by Y. Hsing looking 1.8%
2%
at the United States economy between 1959 and 1991 1.4%
0.6%
placed the revenue-maximizing average federal tax rate 1%
Governor Sam Brownback greatly reduced state tax rates improvement of the country at large. At the same time
in 2012.[28][29] The state, which had previously had a bud- you will be in a position to command and secure their
get surplus, experienced a budget decit of about $200 love, respect and praises along with the revenues
million in 2012. Drastic cuts to state funding for educa- Ali ibn Abi Talib Nahj al-Balagha, Letter 53[34]
tion and infrastructure have been implemented because
of the budget decits.[30] There are historical precedents other than those cited di-
rectly by Laer. For example, in 1924, Secretary of
Treasury Andrew Mellon wrote: It seems dicult for
some to understand that high rates of taxation do not nec-
3 History essarily mean large revenue to the government, and that
more revenue may often be obtained by lower rates. Ex-
3.1 Origin ercising his understanding that 73% of nothing is noth-
ing, he pushed for the reduction of the top income tax
The Laer Curve, by the way, was not invented by me. bracket from 73% to an eventual 24% (as well as tax
For example, Ibn Khaldun, a 14th-century philosopher, breaks for lower brackets). Mellon was one of the wealth-
wrote in his work The Muqaddimah: It should be known iest people in the United States, the third-highest income-
that at the beginning of the dynasty, taxation yields a large tax payer in the mid-1920s, behind John D. Rockefeller
revenue from small assessments. At the end of the dy- and Henry Ford.[35] While he served as Secretary of the
nasty, taxation yields a small revenue from large assess- U.S. Treasury Department his wealth peaked at around
ments. US$300US$400 million. Personal income-tax receipts
rose from US$719 million in 1921 to over US$1 billion
Arthur Laer, The Laer Curve: Past, Present, and Fu-
in 1929, an average increase of 4.2% per year over an 8-
ture[8]
year period, which supporters attribute to the rate cut.[36]
The term Laer curve was reportedly coined by Jude
An argument along similar lines was also advocated by
Wanniski (a writer for The Wall Street Journal) after a
Ali ibn Abi Talib, the fourth Caliph, in his letter to the
1974 dinner meeting at the Two Continents Restaurant
Governor of Egypt, Malik al-Ashtar. The arguments he
in the Washington Hotel with Arthur Laer, Wanniski,
made about a decrease in tax increasing both state rev-
Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and his deputy press
enues and the welfare of the citizens are similar to those
secretary Grace-Marie Arnett.[8] In this meeting, Laer,
cited by President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. David
arguing against President Gerald Ford's tax increase, re-
Hume also expressed similar arguments in his essay Of
portedly sketched the curve on a napkin to illustrate the
Taxes in 1756, as did fellow Scottish economist Adam
concept.[31] Cheney did not accept the idea immediately,
Smith, twenty years later.[10]
but it caught the imaginations of those present.[32] Laf-
fer professes no recollection of this napkin, but writes: IThe Democratic party made a similar argument in the
used the so-called Laer Curve all the time in my classes 1880s when high revenue from import taris raised dur-
and with anyone else who would listen to me.[8] ing the Civil War (18611865) led to federal budget sur-
pluses. The Republican party, which was then based in
Laer himself does not claim to have invented the con-
the protectionist industrial Northeast, argued that cutting
cept, attributing it to 14th-century Tunisian scholar Ibn
[8][33] rates would lower revenues. But the Democratic party,
Khaldun in his book Muqaddimah and, more re-
[8] then rooted in the agricultural South, argued tari reduc-
cently, to John Maynard Keynes.
tions would increase revenues by increasing the number
of taxable imports.
3.2 Precedents
4.3 Bush tax cuts [8] Laer, Arthur. The Laer Curve: Past, Present, and Fu-
ture. The Heritage Foundation. Retrieved 2016-05-02.
Main article: Bush tax cuts
See also: Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconcil- [9] To Donald Rumsfeld. Polyconomics.com. Archived
from the original on 2011-05-03. Retrieved 2012-12-13.
iation Act of 2001 and Jobs and Growth Tax Relief
Reconciliation Act of 2003 [10] Wanniski, Jude (1978). Taxes, Revenues and the 'Laer
Curve'" (PDF). The Public Interest. Retrieved 2009-11-
21.
The Congressional Budget Oce has estimated that ex-
tending the Bush tax cuts of 20012003 beyond their [11] CBO. (December 1, 2005). Analyzing the Economic and
2010 expiration would increase decits by $1.8 trillion Budgetary Eects of a 10 Percent Cut in Income Tax Rates"
over the following decade.[48] Economist Paul Krugman (PDF). Retrieved 2007-12-11.
contended that supply-side adherents did not fully be-
lieve that the United States income tax rate was on the [12] Tax Cuts Don't Boost Revenues, Time Magazine, Decem-
ber 6, 2007
backwards-sloping side of the curve and yet they still
advocated lowering taxes to encourage investment of per- [13] Poll Results. IGM Forum.
sonal savings.[49]
[14] Malcomson, J (1986). Some analytics of the laer
curve. Journal of Public Economics. 29 (3): 263.
doi:10.1016/0047-2727(86)90029-0.
5 See also
[15] Gahvari, F (1989). The nature of government expen-
Deadweight loss ditures and the shape of the laer curve. Journal of
Public Economics. 40 (2): 251. doi:10.1016/0047-
List of economics topics 2727(89)90006-6.
Rahn curve [16] Palda, Filip (1998). Evasive Ability and the Eciency
Cost of the Underground Economy. Canadian Journal
Self-Reliance of Economics. 31 (5): 111838. JSTOR 136462.
Trickle-down economics [17] Feige, Edgar L.; McGee, Robert (1982). Supply Side
Economics and the Unobserved Economy: The Dutch
Laer Curve. [Economisch Statistische Berichten]. 67
6 Notes (November).
[25] Kimmel, Mike (2010-11-30). Hausers Law is Extremely [47] Cumulative Growth In Average After-Tax Income, By
Misleading. Angry Bear Financial and Economic Com- Income Group; graph, page 19 (PDF). Congressional
mentary. Retrieved 30 June 2011. Budget Oce. October 2011.
[26] Window Tax. [48] An Analysis of the Presidents Budgetary Proposals for
Fiscal Year 2008 (PDF). 21 March 2007.
[27] http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~{}mdo738/
textbook/dls_ch13.pdf [49] Peddling Prosperity by Paul Krugman, p.95
[28] Shields, Mike (August 14, 2012). The brain behind the
Brownback tax cuts. Kansas Health Institute. Kansas
Health Institute. Retrieved 17 August 2016. 7 External links
[29] Topeka Capital Journal, 2013
Media related to Laer curve at Wikimedia Commons
[30] Kansas City Star, 2015
Jude Wanniski, Taxes, Revenues, and the `Laer
[31] Archived July 22, 2011, at the Wayback Machine.
Curve,'" The Public Interest, Number 50, Winter
[32] Gellman, Barton, 258. Angler: The Cheney Vice Presi- 1978
dency, Penguin Press, New York 2008.
Arthur Laer describing the Laer Curve
[33] Brederode, Robert F. van (2009). Systems of general
sales taxation : theory, policy and practice. Austin [Tex.]: The Laer Curve, Part I: Understanding the Theory
Wolters Kluwer Law & Business. p. 117. ISBN
9041128328.
The Laer Curve, Part II: Reviewing the Evidence
[34] Ali, Imam (1978). Nahjul Balagha. Imam Ali. Re- The Laer Curve, Part III: Dynamic Scoring
trieved 2009-11-21.
On PBS NewsHOur Solman explores the relation-
[35] Cannadine, David. Mellon: An American Life. New York: ship between economic activity and tax rates.
A.A. Knopf, 2006. pp. 48-49, 165, 349. ISBN 0-679-
45032-7.
[36] Folsom Jr., Burton W., The Myth of the Robber Barons,
page 103. Young Americas Foundation, 2007.
[37] http://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2012/
paper_78.pdf
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