J. M. Fernndez and M. A. E.

Selma: Dynamics of Water Scarcity on Irrigated Landscapes 117

The dynamics of water scarcity on irrigated
landscapes: Mazarrn and Aguilas in
south-eastern Spain
Julia Martnez Fernndez* and Miguel Angel Esteve Selma

Julia Martinez Abstract

Fernandez has a PhD
The new irrigated lands of Mazarrn and Aguilas, south-east Spain, have led to the over-
in Biology and is a
exploitation of local aquifers and to seawater intrusion, water salinization and to declining water
researcher at the
tables. This paper discusses a dynamic model developed to analyse the key socio-economic
Departamento de
and environmental factors driving the whole system. The New Irrigated Lands dynamic model
Ecologa, Universidad
includes ve sectors: Irrigated Lands, Protability, Available Space, Water Resources and Pollu-
de Murcia. She has
tion. The dynamic model simulates the environmental effects regarding water consumption by
carried out distance
reference to aquifer levels, natural outows through springs, piezometric levels and aquifer water
learning studies in
salinity. The exploration of scenarios shows that current policies based on the increase in water
system dynamics
resources do not eliminate the water decit problem because the feedback loops of the system lead
under the direction
to a further increase in irrigated land and continuation of the water decit. This demonstrates
of Professor
highly counter-intuitive behaviour. This article constitutes a contribution to the analysis of inten-
J.W. Forrester at MIT.
sive irrigated lands and water management in Spain, which is mostly lacking a systemic and
She has been part of
dynamic approach. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
the scientic team of
several national and Syst. Dyn. Rev. 20, 117137, (2004)
international research
projects regarding
desertication, land
use changes in
Agricultural systems and their environmental effects, like many other envir-
Mediterranean areas, onmental problems, constitute complex systems, whose study requires sys-
the elaboration of temic approaches capable of explicitly managing the temporal dimension,
dynamic system sustainability conditions, uncertainty and externalities (Bergh 1996). Although
models of irrigation several studies deal with agricultural systems from systemic perspectives,
systems, water
management in arid
there are comparatively few that focus on irrigated lands and their envir-
regions and the onmental externalities. The speed and intensity of the changes undergone by
environmental these agricultural systems, especially in the Mediterranean, require greater
externalities of attention and an overview that incorporates the environmental dimension.
irrigated lands. She Traditional irrigated lands have constituted one of the most characteristic
has been member of
the technical team of
agro-landscapes in the Mediterranean. In addition to their socio-economic
the Spanish importance, traditional irrigation systems, located along the river valleys and
International making use of renewable surface water resources, have played a major ecolog-
Co-operation Agency ical and environmental role. However, these valuable agro-landscapes are
in the Galapagos progressively decaying and disappearing as a result of recent socio-economic
National Park
(Ecuador). She has
changes (Martnez Fernndez et al. 2000), which, at the same time, are promot-
published around 35 ing the development of new irrigated lands outside the river valleys and with
scientic articles and a major effect on land, water resources, landscape, biodiversity and the eco-
monographs in logical value of extensive tracts of the Mediterranean area, especially in arid
national and and semi-arid environments like those of south-eastern Spain.
international research
journals and books
relating to
Correspondence to: Dr J. Martnez Fernndez, Departamento de Ecologa e Hidrologa Universidad de Murcia,
desertication, Campus de Espinardo, 30100, Murcia, Spain. E-mail: juliamf@um.es

System Dynamics Review Vol. 20, No. 2, (Summer 2004): 117137 Received March 2003
Published online in Wiley InterScience Accepted July 2003
(www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/sdr.290
Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

117
118 System Dynamics Review Volume 20 Number 2 Summer 2004

the ecology of arid In general the environmental modelling of agricultural systems in the
systems, water European context pays special attention to pollution problems such as those
management,
dynamics of irrigated
generated by fertilisers and pesticides, while consumption of resources, such
lands and their as water or space, has received less attention (Madsen et al. 1996). This
environmental effects. is probably explained by the relative abundance of water in most parts of
She has delivered Europe and by the absence of important active processes of land transforma-
around ten invited tion for agricultural use of areas with a high ecological value. In contrast,
speeches in national
and international
agriculture in this area generates problems related to the occupation and
scientic workshops, transformation of land that, for socio-economic and environmental reasons,
mostly in relation to contains well conserved natural habitats, whose continuity is now under
the management of threat with the intensive dynamics of land use changes and the expansion
water resources, the of irrigated lands. In addition, water consumption constitutes a key factor
Spanish National
Water Plan and the
in evaluating the environmental effects of agriculture in the Mediterranean
environmental side regions.
effects of water uses. In Spain and other countries with scarce water resources, water manage-
She is member of the ment has been based, especially during the last century, on a quite simplistic
Water Committee of vision, which is no longer capable of tackling current water problems in the
the Segura Basin and
founder member of the
context of new environmental and agricultural policies. The supply-driven
New Water Culture policy of large-scale water resource projects to promote new irrigated land is
Foundation. increasingly at odds with rapid growth in the social and economic develop-
ment of Spanish society and with the increasing environmental problems. The
Miguel Angel Esteve Spanish National Water Plan, which includes a big water transfer and a long
has a PhD in Biology.
He has published
list of new dams, is generating increasing scientic criticism (Arrojo 2001)
around 75 scientic and important social conicts in the basins concerned, of Ebro and Segura.
articles in national The Segura basin constitutes a clear example of the misleading perceptions
and international underlying current water management and planning in Spain.
journals. He is co- Many such widespread misleading conceptions, which can be found not
author of 15 scientic
books concerning the
only in the public opinion but also between policy-makers and in the technical
ecology of eld, are maintained because of the lack of a systemic approach in the analysis
Mediterranean of the relationships between irrigated lands and water resources and the short-
systems and arid lands and long-term effects of the water policies being applied. Therefore, the ana-
and the water lysis and discussion of these controversial issues would strongly benet from
resources of such
systems. He has
the application of a systemic approach, which is lacking up to the moment.
participated in The system dynamics approach has also been applied to analyse other
25 scientic and Mediterranean agricultural systems in which irrigated land plays a central
technical projects, role (Martnez Fernndez et al. 2000, Martnez Vicente et al. 2000, Saysel and
most of them as Barlas 2001, Saysel et al. 2002) and it has been especially fruitful in water
scientic coordinator.
He has supervised
management issues as a help for policy-makers and other stakeholders to
eight doctoral theses understand the whole system, to share common assumptions, to explore
regarding the ecology the effects of different policies and management options and particularly to
of arid lands, the discover the frequently counter-intuitive behaviour of these complex systems,
biodiversity of like the case of the Snake river (Ford 1996). The work presented in this paper
Mediterranean
systems, the
contributes to the analysis of intensively irrigated lands and water manage-
ment in Spain through the application of the system dynamics approach to one
 J. M. Fernndez and M. A. E. Selma: Dynamics of Water Scarcity on Irrigated Landscapes 119

management of natural of the most important irrigated lands in the Segura basin: the intensive irri-
resources, the gated lands of Mazarrn and Aguilas, Southeastern Spain.
dynamics of water
resources and their
The irrigated lands of Mazarrn and Aguilas constitute a good example of
environmental effects. the new Mediterranean agriculture based on groundwater exploitation. The
He has participated in intensive use of groundwater resources has led to the over-exploitation of local
the elaboration of aquifers and to seawater intrusion, water salinization and declining water
several environmental tables. Moreover, the continued expansion of irrigated lands has reduced areas
acts and has been
secretary of the Water
of high ecological value, threatening part of the habitat of endangered pro-
Pact at the Regional tected species. Some of these effects constitute pure environmental externali-
Parliament. He has ties while others also negatively inuence the protability of irrigated lands
received four prizes in because of decreasing available space, scarce water resources and, especially,
environment and water salinization. All these factors establish complex relationships, which
regional science. He is
member of several
condition the general behaviour of the system (Martnez Fernndez 2000).
environmental This article is part of a larger work to contribute to an overall understanding
advisory committees of the complex environmental and socio-economic system of this intensive
and of the Water and agriculture. For that, we developed a dynamic model, which was combined
Environment with environmental modelling and a GIS to analyse the current spatial dis-
University Institute in
Murcia. A founder
tribution of irrigated lands, the land use changes during the last decades and
member of several the key socio-economic and environmental factors driving the whole system.
environmental We tackled the difculties in combining dynamic modelling and GIS by using
associations and a the output of the spatial model as input for the dynamic model and vice-versa.
founder member of the For example, the spatial analysis of the land use changes between 1981 and
New Water Culture
Foundation, he is a
1999 allowed a detailed description of the irrigated lands sector of the dynamic
full Professor of model in terms of stock and ows, initial values and parameters. On the other
Ecology at the hand, the effects of each scenario explored with the dynamic model on the
University of Murcia occupation of areas with a high ecological value were analysed by spatially
and is coordinator of distributing the total expected irrigated land under each scenario, making use
the Environmental
Studies degree there.
of the potential distribution model of irrigated lands. This potential distribu-
tion model was developed by combining an environmental response model
of irrigated land and a GIS (Martnez Fernndez and Esteve Selma 2004).
These maps were used to analyse current and potential conicts due to the
spatial competition between irrigated lands and alternative uses such as nature
conservation.
In this article we present the dynamic model and the effects of several policy
options in relation to water management.

The dynamic model New Irrigated Lands

The New Irrigated Lands dynamic model has been constructed using
Vensim 3 (Ventana Systems 1998). It includes 12 level variables belonging
to ve sectors interconnected through different feedback loops. The model
sectors are: Irrigated Lands, Protability, Available Area, Water Resources
and Pollution.
120 System Dynamics Review Volume 20 Number 2 Summer 2004

Model validation has been established through different structural tests

(Barlas 1996), including dimensional consistency tests, sensitivity analysis
and extreme condition tests. Statistical tests through comparisons with avail-
able historical data series were also carried out. Extreme conditions tests
showed that the model behaves as expected under conditions such as the
absence of protability, the absence of external water resources and the existence
of very high water salinity, under which irrigated lands quickly drop to zero,
while the lack of available land area cancels the increase in irrigated land, the
elimination of pumping leads to the recovery of piezometric levels and the
absence of irrigated lands keeps the system close to equilibrium. Sensitivity
analysis showed the model robustness to changes in model parameters such as
the irrigated land base increase ratio, the initial outow from aquifers through
springs, the water salinity of external water resources and the base increase
rate in the external water resources. Monte Carlo simulations for combined
changes in all studied parameters were also carried out. Table 1 presents the
results for the statistical tests of comparison with available historical data
series, showing a general low mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The
highest values are found for irrigated tree crops and open-air horticultural
crops, although in these cases the discrepancies are not generated by sys-
tematic bias but by an incomplete covariation. The results of the whole valida-
tion process have established a high model condence.
The model starts in 1960 and is simulated on a monthly basis. Figure 1 pre-
sents a simplied diagram showing the main sectors, variables and relationships.
The increase in irrigated land generates several environmental effects, some
of which also constitute greater economic costs and lead to lower protability,
which eventually may slow down the expansion of irrigated lands. All these
effects are included in several feedback loops and integrated into an aggre-
gated protability index controlling the land use changes between the areas
covered in natural vegetation, drylands and irrigated lands. As an example, we
describe one of the negative feedback loops: the greater the area of irrigated
lands, the higher the water demand, so aquifer exploitation increases and
piezometric levels go down. This increases water extraction costs, which

Table 1. Results for statistical tests of comparison between simulation and available historical data series for different
variables. n: number of months compared; MAPE: mean absolute percentage error; MSE: mean square error; U M: fraction of
MSE due to bias; U S: fraction of MSE due to unequal variance; U C: fraction of MSE due to unequal covariance. For each
variable, the number of months compared corresponds to the number of available data in the original historical data series

Variable n MAPE MSE UM US UC

Irrigated tree-crops 23 12.4 131,957.5 0.08 0.00 0.92

Open-air horticultural crops 25 13.9 1,002,467.1 0.00 0.03 0.97
Greenhouses 17 10.1 849,681.7 0.27 0.38 0.35
Piezometric level 20 3.3 18.6 0.00 0.44 0.56
Water salinity in aquifers 16 6.5 69,409.6 0.03 0.03 0.94
 J. M. Fernndez and M. A. E. Selma: Dynamics of Water Scarcity on Irrigated Landscapes 121

Fig. 1. Simplied diagram of the model sectors with the main variables and relationships

affects protability and slows down the irrigated land expansion. In addition,
the over-exploitation of aquifers also induces salinization. Irrigation with highly
saline water immediately affects the quantity and quality of production and
hence the relative protability of the affected irrigated lands, which promotes
a search for external water resources from alternative sources, such as water
transfers from other surface and subterranean water systems and marine de-
salination. Other environmental effects are linked through other feedback loops.
There are also other environmental effects, which do not affect the prot-
ability of irrigated land. This is the case of the pollution ows (export of
nitrogen and phosphate), the production of plastic wastes from greenhouses
and soil salinization. In many irrigated land systems, soil salinization is a
major issue for irrigated land protability (Saysel and Barlas 2001). However,
in Mazarrn and Aguilas, 80 percent of irrigated lands (open-air horticultural
crops and greenhouses) are grown on articial substrata. Such substrata are
replaced every one or two years, so the crop is not affected by the salinization
generated in the soil due to the percolation of irrigation water.
The Irrigated Land, Water Resources and Protability sectors are briey
described.
122 System Dynamics Review Volume 20 Number 2 Summer 2004

Fig. 2. Simplied diagram of the Irrigated Land sector showing the main uses and land use changes

The Irrigated Land sector

Figure 2 shows a simplied diagram of the Irrigated Land sector with the area
of irrigated tree crops, open-air horticultural crops, greenhouses, dryland,
natural vegetation (scrublands) and dams for irrigation. (The greenhouse is a
highly intensive horticultural crop under a structure 23 m tall and around
5,000 m in area, covered by plastic, with automated ferti-irrigation devices and
using articial substrata instead of soil. These types of crop appear in the
landscape as a plastic continuum and a production unit may cover hundreds
of hectares.) The variables and parameters of the irrigated land sector, includ-
ing the maximum available area for irrigated lands in Mazarrn and Aguilas,
were determined using data obtained from eldwork and from the environ-
mental and spatial modelling. The area occupied by each one of the three types
of irrigated land varies according to different land use changes, some of them
representing a net increase of total irrigated lands, and some of them represent-
ing a re-distribution between the different types of irrigated land. These land
use changes depend on the relative protability index of each type of irrigated
land.

The Protability sector

The protability index of each type of irrigated land, for example open-air
horticultural crops, is determined by its specic technological intensication
index and the aggregated cost index. The technological intensication index is
J. M. Fernndez and M. A. E. Selma: Dynamics of Water Scarcity on Irrigated Landscapes 123

an exogenous variable representing the combined impact of technological

improvements such as better crop varieties or computer-aided fertilisation and
irrigation. The aggregated cost index has four components, accounting for the
effects of water salinity, water cost, available area for new irrigated lands
(scrublands and drylands) and water decit. An increase of water salinization,
water cost or water decit or a decrease in the available area for new irrigated
lands affects the cost index and hence reduces the protability index. This
allows the determination of the differential protability driving the land use
changes, for example between the open-air horticultural crops and green-
houses, as the difference between their protability indexes.

The Water Resources sector

Traditional irrigated lands in Spain legally enjoy some preferences regarding
water rights in the case of droughts and scarcity periods. However, none of the
irrigated lands of MazarrnAguilas are ofcially considered as traditional
lands. In addition, they mainly use groundwater, which is still under private
management in Murcia, despite current water law considering groundwater as
a public resource. Therefore, there is no public management of water alloca-
tion with or without scarcity.
The hydro-geological unit of MazarrnAguilas is constituted of a complex
set of 39 small aquifers, which, are partially inter-connected. The system
dynamics approach has been successfully applied to groundwater modelling
(Abbott and Stanley 1999). However, in this model the groundwater water
resources are treated in a quite simplied manner, as an aggregated unit in the
form of a single aquifer. This single aquifer represents the amount of groundwater
that can be accessible by pumping. The available data for all local aquifers
allowed the characterisation of such an aggregated aquifer in the model. This
simplied representation is considered sufcient for the model purpose in
terms of water resources, since all irrigated lands in Mazarrn and Aguilas
belong to a single water users community (called Comunidad de Regantes de
Mazarrn y Aguilas), one of the stakeholders and institutions consulted during
this work, which manage all available water as a whole.
The Water Resources sector includes two level variables: the water level in
the local aquifers and the available external resources from alternative sources
(Figure 3).
There are two inows in the local aquifers: natural recharge from rainfall
and drainage and percolation from irrigation. The recharge is calculated as a
delayed function of the average recharge and rainfall intensity. The percola-
tion from irrigation depends upon a delayed function of the total water amount
used for irrigation and the average percolation fraction. The outows are
constituted by springs and pumping. The natural outow through springs
depends on the average piezometric level (a measure of water pressure that is
closely linked to the depth of the water table). As the piezometric level goes
124 System Dynamics Review Volume 20 Number 2 Summer 2004

Fig. 3. Simplied
diagram of the Water
Resources sector

down, the natural outow through springs decreases. The rate of pumping
depends on the aquifer level, the water demand, the salinity of irrigation water
and the availability of water resources from alternative sources.
The water level in the aquifer determines the average piezometric level and,
hence, the average water salinity in the aquifer. This determines the water
salinity of irrigation water, one of the factors affecting the relative protability
of irrigated land and its rate of growth.
The progressive increase of water salinity in the local aquifers induced by
the overall over-exploitation promotes the search for external water resources.
The alternative sources include groundwater imported from other hydro-
geological units, the re-use of water coming from wastewater treatment plants
and the use of marine desalination plants. These external water resources,
with a higher quality and also higher cost, are mixed with the water from local
 J. M. Fernndez and M. A. E. Selma: Dynamics of Water Scarcity on Irrigated Landscapes 125

aquifers to reduce the nal salinity of irrigation water. The external water
resources used in MazarrnAguilas have always increased with time, mainly
by means of imported groundwater from other hydro-geological units and
more recently from marine desalination plants.

Historical behaviour and model t

The dynamic model simulation from 1960 to the present time gives results
similar to the corresponding historical data series, showing the increase of
irrigated lands from 1,200 ha in 1960 to 17,000 ha in 1999 (Figure 4).

Fig. 4. Simulated
values (dashed line)
and historical values
(solid line) for
hectares of irrigated
lands

The dynamic model simulates the historical deterioration of aquifers during

recent decades by reference to aquifer levels, natural outows through springs,
piezometric levels and water salinity of aquifers. Historical data and simula-
tion results show the fall in piezometric levels and the progressive water
salinization (Figure 5). This has direct and indirect effects on the irrigated land
system in the form of growing costs. The relative protability index exhibits a
notable fall between 1980 and 1990, principally because of the low water
quality generated by the over-exploitation of aquifers and consequent water
salinization.
126 System Dynamics Review Volume 20 Number 2 Summer 2004

Fig. 5. (a) Historical

(solid line) and
simulated (dashed
line) decline in
average piezometric
level (in meters).
(b) Historical (solid
line) and simulated
(dashed line) increase
in aquifer water
conductivity (in
microsiemens/cm),
a measure of salinity
 J. M. Fernndez and M. A. E. Selma: Dynamics of Water Scarcity on Irrigated Landscapes 127

However, the fall in the piezometric levels generates another effect, which
may be considered as a pure environmental externality: the loss of springs
and other natural outows from aquifers along with associated wetlands and
biodiversity. This constitutes a very important state indicator of the unsustain-
able management of these aquifers. The model shows a considerable reduction
of natural outows through springs since the 1960s (Figure 6).

Fig. 6. Simulated
decline in the
discharge (cubic
meters/month) of the
Mazarrn and Aguilas
aquifers through
springs

There are some historical data dating from the beginning of the past century
indicating that around 86% of total natural discharge through springs has
been lost and agreeing with the simulation results in Figure 6. This drastic
reduction of water ows is probably responsible for the elimination of a great
number of wetlands and a reduction in biodiversity, an important ecological
loss in the context of Mediterranean arid systems like those existing in south-
east Spain. In addition, the consumption of aquifer water reserves implies
the loss of non-renewable natural resources of considerable strategic, social,
environmental and economic importance.

The effects of several policy options

Several scenarios concerning the availability of land area and water resources
have been proposed in order to explore the possible future dynamic behaviour
of the system. All these scenarios were projected over the time horizon for
128 System Dynamics Review Volume 20 Number 2 Summer 2004

which the model was designed, covering the period 19992024. We present
here the main results regarding scenarios about water resources: base scenario,
no increase in external water resources and technological intensication and
partial increase in water resources.

Base scenario
In this scenario all model parameters remain unchanged, assuming the con-
tinuation of current trends over the next 25 years. This means maintaining the
current rate of increase of external water resources. Under such conditions, an
additional annual amount of 32 cubic hectomers of added external water
resources is reached at the end of the simulation period. This amount is very
close to the future water transfer expected from recently approved projects, in
particular the Spanish National Water Plan, which includes the out-basin
diversion of water from the Ebro river, in the North, to the Segura basin in
south-east Spain and, more specically, the annual transfer of around 39 cubic
hectomers to the irrigated lands of Mazarrn and Aguilas.
The model behaviour shows a shift from the initial prevalence of positive
feedback loops promoting exponential growth to the dominance of negative
feedback loops, when the system begins to perceive its own local restrictions
in key factors like the quantity and quality of water resources and the available
area for new irrigated lands. However, although this has slowed down the
growth rate of irrigated land, this remains far from dynamic equilibrium with
existing resources. Under the base scenario, the current trend to the increase in
irrigated land continues between the period 19992024 to reach 23,500 ha by
the end of the simulation period (Figure 7). Total irrigated land occupies 80
per cent of the available area for such use at the expense of dry land and natural
vegetation, leading to an important occupation of land of high ecological value.
This expansion is exclusively generated by an increase in greenhouses, due to
their high protability and favoured by current market conditions, while tree
crops and open-air horticultural crops are slightly reduced (Figure 8). Evid-
ence of the expansion of greenhouses, sustained by the available land area and
the use of external water resources, has been observed since 1999.
The aquifer over-exploitation leads to the rapid exhaustion of accessible
water reserves and pumping is reduced to a minimum, so practically all water
for irrigation comes from external resources. This has two opposite effects on
the protability index because the water cost increases while, on the other
hand, the quality of water for irrigation improves. However, although the high
rate of increase of external water resources is maintained, such resources are
not enough to counterbalance the aquifer exhaustion and the continued in-
crease of irrigated lands, so an important water decit appears (Figure 9).
There is no public management of water allocation and hence water decit,
through its effect on protability, is one of the main factors driving the land use
changes to favour the most protable one, which is greenhouses.
 J. M. Fernndez and M. A. E. Selma: Dynamics of Water Scarcity on Irrigated Landscapes 129

Fig. 7. Simulated
hectares of irrigated
land in the base
scenario (solid line),
in the scenario with
partial increase in
water resources
(dotted line), and in
the scenario with no
increase in external
water resources
(dashed line)

Fig. 8. Base scenario

for hectares of land
devoted to
greenhouses (solid
line), open-air
horticultural crops
(dotted line) and
irrigated tree crops
(dashed line)
130 System Dynamics Review Volume 20 Number 2 Summer 2004

Fig. 9. Simulated
annual water decit
(cubic meters per
hectare per year) in the
base scenario (solid
line), in the scenario
with a partial increase
in water resources
(dotted line), and in
the scenario with no
increase in external
water resources
(dashed line)

The results of the base scenario show that policies based on the increase of
external water resources for the irrigated lands of Mazarrn and Aguilas, as
those established by the recent National Water Plan, cannot eliminate the
water decit, because the scenario depends not only on the available water but
also on other endogenous factors and feedback loops of the system (Figure 10).
These results support the hypothesis that the serious water decit problem
affecting south-east Spain cannot be solved exclusively by the current policies
based on the increase of water resources, because any increase in the water
supply induces a further expansion of irrigated lands and hence a further
increase in water demand.
In short, the increase in water resources in Mazarrn and Aguilas leads in
the last instance to an increase in water decit due to the feedback loops of
the system. This is mainly caused by the decreased water salinity and the
improved protability index, which promotes an increase in irrigated lands
above available water resources, which leads to the appearance of water decit.
This counter-intuitive behaviour is not only found as a local process, but as
part of a more general dynamics regarding irrigated lands and water resources
in other areas. Such dynamics have been qualitatively analysed at a broader
spatial scale involving the whole Segura basin (Martnez Fernndez & Esteve
Selma 2002). The basic process, which can be detected in the Segura basin
during the last century, is presented in Figure 11.
 J. M. Fernndez and M. A. E. Selma: Dynamics of Water Scarcity on Irrigated Landscapes 131

Fig. 10. Main factors

and feedback loops of
the irrigated lands
model of Mazarrn
and Aguilas

The starting situation is an initial imbalance between water resources and

agricultural water demand. The perceived scarcity and uctuation of water
resources leads to plans to increase the water supply to eliminate the water
decit and to allow a certain increase in irrigated lands. To achieve that, a
hydraulic project is planned and carried out. During the rst half of the past
century such projects were dams while in the last decades the attention shifted
to water transfers from other basins. However, the expectations generated by
the hydraulic projects promote the additional, non-planned increase of irri-
gated lands, so after some years the total of irrigated land considerably exceeds
the area considered in the planning process. In addition, the new hydraulic
infrastructure does not provide, for several reasons, the expected amount of
additional water resources. As a result, the imbalance between available water
resources and agricultural water demand after the hydraulic project is greater
than the initial imbalance. This greater imbalance is generated both by the
non-planned increase of irrigated lands due to the expectations around the
hydraulic project and by the less than expected water resources obtained
with such a project. This water imbalance leads to a more intensive use of
groundwater and hence to a higher consumption of non-renewable water
resources. At the same time, through the well known process of eroding
objectives, existing but non-planned irrigated lands are fully integrated in the
next planning process. Thus, the total amount of irrigated lands considered
132 System Dynamics Review Volume 20 Number 2 Summer 2004

Fig.11. The
unsustainable process
promoted by the
expectations about
new water resources
generated by each new
hydraulic project in
the Segura basin,
showing the counter-
intuitive relationships
between irrigated
lands, water resources
and water demand at
the basin scale

in such a process increases, as does the perceived difference between water

demand and available resources. As a consequence, a new hydraulic project
is proposed following the highly unsustainable dynamics, as has been well
documented in the Segura basin for more than 100 years (Martnez Fernndez
and Esteve Selma 2002; Martnez Cortina & Hernndez-Mora 2003). In short,
the increase in water resources through each new hydraulic project leads to
an increasing imbalance between water resources and demand, a counter-
intuitive behaviour similar to the one described in the MazarrnAguilas
dynamic model.
In south-east Spain, most of aquifers are over-exploited, which has led to
aquifer salinization, the exhaustion of groundwater and the loss of springs,
wetlands and associated biodiversity. The whole process clearly ts the
desertication syndrome, under which a non-reversible situation is reached.
The dynamics between the increase in irrigated land, the growing inertia of the
system, its incapacity to adapt to available resources and widespread aquifer
over-exploitation clearly t this general desertication process and constitute
a paradigm of environmental and socio-economic unsustainability. Now, the
present total water demand, mostly originating from agriculture, amounts to
 J. M. Fernndez and M. A. E. Selma: Dynamics of Water Scarcity on Irrigated Landscapes 133

228 percent of the internal renewable resources of the Segura Basin, which is
the highest for all European Mediterranean countries (Institute For Prospect-
ive Technological Studies 1997).
The effects generated by the big hydraulic projects carried out in the Segura
basin every 20 or 30 years (Fuensanta dam in 1932, Cenajo dam in 1960
and TagusSegura water transfer in 1979) t very well the general process
described above. For example, 20 years after the TagusSegura water trans-
fer started, the water decit in the Segura basin doubled. Despite this, it
should be pointed out that such dynamics remain unperceived, especially
the counter-intuitive relationship between the increase in water supply and
the increase in total water decit after some delay. Nowadays, a new water
transfer is planned: the EbroSegura water transfer included in the Spanish
National Water Plan.

No increase in external water resources

This represents a pessimistic scenario in which the external water resources
do not increase. This scenario generates a high water decit (Figure 9), which
notably decreases the protability index (Figure 12), which in turn leads to
the stabilisation and, at the end of the simulation period, to the progres-
sive decrease of irrigated land (Figure 7). Such a decrease is caused by the
reduction of the area occupied by the less protable irrigated lands (open-air

Fig. 12. Simulated

protability in the
base scenario (solid
line), in the scenario
with a partial increase
in water resources
(dotted line), and in
the scenario with no
increase in external
water resources
(dashed line)
134 System Dynamics Review Volume 20 Number 2 Summer 2004

horticultural crops and irrigated tree crops), while greenhouses still increase,
although at a reduced rate.
As might be expected, this scenario leads to an important reduction of the
environmental effects associated with land consumption and with pollution
ows, as compared to the base scenario. Specically, there is less loss of areas
with a high ecological value, less export of nitrogen and phosphate, and less
production of plastic residuals.

Technological intensication and partial increase in water resources

This scenario assumes a moderate increase in the external water supply,
although at a reduced rate relative to the base scenario. This would correspond
to a more realistic situation, under which the out-basin diversion from the
Ebro river is not built up or implemented but a moderate increase of the
external water resources might be achieved by means of marine desalination.
In addition, it considers an increase in the technological intensication index,
particularly in the case of greenhouses, which partially counterbalances the
increased costs due to water decit. Such technological intensication may
correspond to innovations and improvements regarding computer-aided ferti-
lisation and irrigation in greenhouses.
Although the increase in external water resources reaches an intermediate
value between the previous scenarios, the behaviour of the water decit re-
mains closer to the scenario of no increase in external water resources, reach-
ing the same values at the end of the simulation period (Figure 9, Table 2). This
interesting result occurs because the increase in irrigated lands under in-
creases water demand and cancels out the added amount of water resources.
If the simulation period is extended for a longer time (e.g. a 100 years longer),
the pattern shown in Figure 9 is maintained, with uctuations and years where
the no increase and the partial increase in external water resources scenarios
reach the same value of water decit per hectare. This emphasises the strength
of the feedback loops of the system (Figure 10), linking the increase in external
water resources with an improvement in the protability index and with the
rate in increase of irrigated lands.
This partial increase scenario leads to uctuations in the protability index,
mainly caused by uctuations in the water decit per hectare. Such uctuations
are generated by the delays in the feedback loops linking the water resources,
the irrigated land, the water decit per hectare and the protability index.
The effects of restrictions on the irrigated land expansion were also explored
through a specic scenario. In this case, the external water resource increases
to around half the value of the base scenario, despite which the water decit
per hectare reaches the lowest value of all scenarios considered because of the
lower water demand. This reduced water decit is also the main factor ex-
plaining why the protability index reaches the highest values for all analysed
scenarios.
J. M. Fernndez and M. A. E. Selma: Dynamics of Water Scarcity on Irrigated Landscapes 135

Conclusions

The general results shown by this work suggest that the system should be
re-oriented towards a greater sustainability through policies that are quite
different from those currently being implemented and which should focus on
the true driving factor of the system, which is not available water resources but
total area of irrigated lands. As the dynamic model and the explored scenarios
have shown, any policy aiming to reduce or eliminate the water decit prob-
lem should be based on the stabilisation and eventual reduction of the total
area occupied by irrigated lands. The water decit per hectare reaches the
lowest values when irrigated land is stabilized, while an increase in water
resources does not solve this problem in the long run. The reduction of irri-
gated land to balance water demand and water resources would result not only
in the elimination of water decit but also in the general improvement of
environmental effects caused by irrigated lands, such as those related to land
consumption and pollution ows and those associated with the aquifer over-
exploitation described in this work (aquifer levels, natural outows through
springs and water salinity of aquifers).
The unrealistic perceptions about the relationships between irrigated
land and water resources constitute a key factor in explaining the highly
unsustainable dynamics of irrigated lands in Mazarrn and Aguilas and the
whole of south-east Spain. Furthermore, these unsustainable dynamics strongly
contribute to unsustainable water management on a national scale, through the
Spanish National Water Plan and the EbroJcarSegura out-basin diversion,
which is generating a strong technical and social controversy.
The lack of a systemic approach is an important handicap in advancing
towards a more sustainable water management and policy, both in the Segura
basin and at the national level. Very little progress has been achieved in Spain
in contributing to a dynamic vision and a systemic approach to water issues,
despite their high environmental, social, economic and political importance.
The dynamic model of the intensively irrigated lands of Mazarrn and Aguilas,
in south-east Spain, may be useful in advancing in such a direction as it
provides a paradigmatic example of the same dynamics on different spatial
scales. This may be achieved through specic workshops, group model build-
ing exercises and joint work with policy-makers and stakeholders where the
model presented in this article can be a used as a common ground for analysis
and discussion. This would allow the analysis of the counter-intuitive beha-
viour of the system and confrontation of the expected and actual effects of
the widely supported apparent solution of increasing water resources to solve
the imbalance between water resources and water consumption. However, the
success of this approach requires a completely new social, political and
technical framework regarding water issues in Spain in order to overcome the
current situation in which the decision makers try to limit an open discus-
sion with enough scientic, technical and social inputs and to keep public
136 System Dynamics Review Volume 20 Number 2 Summer 2004

participation to a minimum. However, many efforts are being carried out to

promote a new water culture in Spain, which may favour a new framework
in which the application of a systemic approach, making use of models like
that presented in this paper, may signicantly contribute to advances in the
sustainable management of water and other related issues.

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