Probability

Example: the chances of rolling a "4" with a die

Number of ways it can happen: 1 (there is only 1 face with a "4" on it)

Total number of outcomes: 6 (there are 6 faces altogether)

So the probability = 16
Example: there are 5 marbles in a bag: 4 are blue, and 1 is red. What
is the probability that a blue marble gets picked?
Number of ways it can happen: 4 (there are 4 blues)

Total number of outcomes: 5 (there are 5 marbles in total)

So the probability = 45 = 0.8

uestion 1: A die is rolled, find the probability that an even number is obtained.

Solution to Question 1:

Let us first write the sample space S of the experiment.

S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Let E be the event "an even number is obtained" and write it down.

E = {2,4,6}

We now use the formula of the classical probability.

P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 3 / 6 = 1 / 2

Question 2: Two coins are tossed, find the probability that two heads are obtained.

Note: Each coin has two possible outcomes H (heads) and T (Tails).

Solution to Question 2:
 The sample space S is given by.

S = {(H,T),(H,H),(T,H),(T,T)}

Let E be the event "two heads are obtained".

E = {(H,H)}

We use the formula of the classical probability.

P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 1 / 4

Question 3: Which of these numbers cannot be a probability?

a) -0.00001
b) 0.5
c) 1.001
d) 0
e) 1
f) 20%

Solution to Question 3:

A probability is always greater than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1, hence
only a) and c) above cannot represent probabilities: -0.00010 is less than 0 and
1.001 is greater than 1.

Question 4: Two dice are rolled, find the probability that the sum is

a) equal to 1

b) equal to 4

c) less than 13

Solution to Question 4:

a) The sample space S of two dice is shown below.

S = { (1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6)
(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6)
 (3,1),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,5),(3,6)
(4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,4),(4,5),(4,6)
(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6)
(6,1),(6,2),(6,3),(6,4),(6,5),(6,6) }

Let E be the event "sum equal to 1". There are no outcomes which correspond to a
sum equal to 1, hence

P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 0 / 36 = 0

b) Three possible outcomes give a sum equal to 4: E = {(1,3),(2,2),(3,1)}, hence.

P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 3 / 36 = 1 / 12

c) All possible outcomes, E = S, give a sum less than 13, hence.

P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 36 / 36 = 1

Question 5: A die is rolled and a coin is tossed, find the probability that the die shows an
odd number and the coin shows a head.

Solution to Question 5:

The sample space S of the experiment described in question 5 is as follows

S = { (1,H),(2,H),(3,H),(4,H),(5,H),(6,H)
(1,T),(2,T),(3,T),(4,T),(5,T),(6,T)}

Let E be the event "the die shows an odd number and the coin shows a head".
Event E may be described as follows

E={(1,H),(3,H),(5,H)}

The probability P(E) is given by

P(E) = n(E) / n(S) = 3 / 12 = 1 / 4

Question 6: A card is drawn at random from a deck of cards. Find the probability of
getting the 3 of diamond.
Solution to Question 6:

The sample space S of the experiment in question 6 is shwon below

Let E be the event "getting the 3 of diamond". An examination of the sample space
shows that there is one "3 of diamond" so that n(E) = 1 and n(S) = 52. Hence the
probability of event E occurring is given by

P(E) = 1 / 52

Combination
Example:

In how many ways can a coach choose three swimmers from among five
swimmers?

Solution:

There are 5 swimmers to be taken 3 at a time.

Using the formula:

The coach can choose the swimmers in 10 ways.

Example:

Six friends want to play enough games of chess to be sure every one plays
everyone else. How many games will they have to play?

Solution:

There are 6 players to be taken 2 at a time.

Using the formula:

They will need to play 15 games.

Example:

In a lottery, each ticket has 5 one-digit numbers 0-9 on it.

a) You win if your ticket has the digits in any order. What are your changes of
winning?

b) You would win only if your ticket has the digits in the required order. What
are your chances of winning?

Solution:

There are 10 digits to be taken 5 at a time.

a) Using the formula:

The chances of winning are 1 out of 252.

b) Since the order matters, we should use permutation instead of combination.

P(10, 5) = 10 x 9 x 8 x 7 x 6 = 30240

The chances of winning are 1 out of 30240.

 b. How many c. How are the answers to questions a. and b. related?
a. How many ways can ways can you
you select and arrange 3 select 3 cookies
cookies from the tray? from the tray if
order doesnt
matter?

Solution Solution Solution

Order is important. Let the set {A, The symbol used to represent the number of combinations is 4C3,
Therefore, this is a B, C, D} which is read 4 choose 3. This implies, From 4, choose 3.
permutation of 4 objects represent the Here, 4C3 = 4.
taken 3 at a time. cookies on the
tray.

The three- The answers to questions a. and b. were 24 and 4 respectively.

cookie
combinations Notice that 4P3 = 4C3 6 or 4C3 3!.
are {A, B, C},
{A, B, D}, {A, There are 6 or 3! times as many permutations as combinations
C, D}, and {B, because there are 3! ways of arranging the three cookies once they
C, D}. are chosen.

There are 4 The permutation nPr represents two tasks: selecting r objects from a
ways of set of n objects first, then arranging the r objects selected. Using the
There are 24 ways of selecting three Fundamental Counting Principle,
selecting and arranging cookies from
three cookies from the the tray if order
tray. does not matter.

cookie jar contains 5 cookies. How many ways A cookie jar contains 5 cookies. A child is offered a cookie,
can a child choose all 5 cookies if order doesnt but refuses. How many ways can this be done?
matter?
Solution Solution

Because the order doesnt matter, determine the

number of combinations.

There is only 1 way the child can reject the cookie. This is
If order is not important, the child can choose done simply by saying, No.
all five cookies only 1 way!

Sample space and events

A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green and red. What
is the probability of landing on each color after spinning this spinner?
Sample Space: {yellow, blue,
green, red}
Probabilities: 1
P(yellow) =
4

1
P(blue) =
4

1
P(green) =
4

1
P(red) =
4

What is the probability of each outcome when a single 6-sided die is rolled?
Sample Space: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Probabilities: 1
P(1) =
6

P(2) = 1
 6

1
P(3) =
6

1
P(4) =
6

1
P(5) =
6

1
P(6) =
6

Experiment 4: A glass jar contains 1 red, 3 green, 2 blue and 4 yellow marbles. If a single
marble is chosen at random from the jar, what is the probability of each
outcome?
Sample Space: {red, green, blue, yellow}
Probabilities: 1
P(red) =
10

3
P(green) =
10

2 1
P(blue) = =
10 5

4 2
P(yellow) = =
10 5
Example 1:

Let us suppose we are flipping three fair coins together. Find the sample space and favorable outcomes for at
least two heads.

Solution:

Sample space, S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT}

Favorable outcomes for at least two heads

= favorable outcomes for exactly two heads and favorable outcomes for more than two heads

= {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH}

Example 2:

Find the sample space for rolling two dices together and then find the probability of

i) getting a total of 6

ii) getting numbers in pairs

Solution:

Sample space, S = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6), (4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3),
(2,4), (2,5), (2,6), (5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3),
(6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}
N (S) = 36

Set of total of 6, A = {(1,5), (5,1), (2,4), (4,2), (3,3)}; N (A) = 5

P (total of 6) = N(A)N(S)N(A)N(S) = 536536

Set of pairs, B = {(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)}; N (B) = 6

P (getting numbers in pairs) = N(B)N(S)N(B)N(S) = 636636 = 1616

Example 3:

Find the probability of getting a club out of a deck of cards.

Solution: We have 52 cards in a deck, i.e. sample space will have 52 options so N (S) = 52.

Also, there are 13 cards of club in a deck so N (A) = 13 where A be the set of clubs.

So P (drawing a club from a deck) = N(A)N(S)N(A)N(S) = 13521352 = 1414.

Permutation
Example:

A license plate begins with three letters. If the possible letters are A, B, C, D
and E, how many different permutations of these letters can be made if no
letter is used more than once?

Solution:

Using reasoning:

For the first letter, there are 5 possible choices. After that letter is chosen,
there are 4 possible choices. Finally, there are 3 possible choices.

5 4 3 = 60

Using the permutation formula:

The problem involves 5 things (A, B, C, D, E) taken 3 at a time.

There are 60 different permutations for the license plate.

How to use the Permutation Formula to solve word problems?

Example:

In how many ways can a president, a treasurer and a secretary be chosen from
among 7 candidates?

Solution:

Using reasoning:

For the first position, there are 7 possible choices. After that candidate is
chosen, there are 6 possible choices. Finally, there are 5 possible choices.

7 6 5 = 210

Using permutation formula:

The problem involves 7 candidates taken 3 at a time.

There are 210 possible ways to choose a president, a treasurer and a secretary
be chosen from among 7 candidates

Example:

A zip code contains 5 digits. How many different zip codes can be made with
the digits 09 if no digit is used more than once and the first digit is not 0?

Solution:

Using reasoning:

For the first position, there are 9 possible choices (since 0 is not allowed). After
that number is chosen, there are 9 possible choices (since 0 is now allowed).
Then, there are 8 possible choices, 7 possible choices and 6 possible choices.

9 9 8 7 6 = 27,216

Using permutation formula:

We cant include the first digit in the formula because 0 is not allowed.

For the first position, there are 9 possible choices (since 0 is not allowed). For
the next 4 positions, we are selecting from 9 digits.

Example 1:

If five digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 are being given and a three digit code has to be made from it if the repetition of digits is
allowed then how many such codes can be formed.

Solution:

As repetition is allowed, we have five options for each digit of the code. Hence, the required number of ways

code can be formed is, 555555 = 125125.

Example 2:

If three alphabets are to be chosen from A, B, C, D and E such that repetition is not allowed then in how many
ways it can be done?

Solution:

The number of ways three alphabets can be chosen from five will be,

35P=5!(53)!53P=5!(53)! = 54321215432121 = 60.

Hence, there are 60 possible ways.

Fundamental

Example 1
Earlier, you were asked to find the number of possible unlocking combinations if the
numbers cannot be repeated.

Since there are 40 numbers from which to choose for each of 3 slots, the number of
unique passwords can be found by multiplying 40 by itself 3 times or (40)3=64,000.
However, we cannot repeat numbers so we need to subtract one each time we
multiply: 403938=59,280.

Therefore, there are 59,280 possible unlocking combinations.

Example 2
How many unique passwords can be made from 6 letters followed by 1 number or symbol
if there are ten possible symbols? No letters or numbers can be repeated.

26252423222120=3,315,312,000

Example 3
If a license plate has three letters and three numbers, how many possible combinations
can be made?

262626101010=17,576,000

Example 4
In a seven digit phone number, the first three digits represent the exchange. If, within a
particular area code, there are 53 exchanges, how many phone numbers can be made

5310101010=530,000

2. How many unique five letter passwords can be made? How many can be made if no
letter is to be repeated?
Since there are 26 letters from which to choose for each of 5 slots, the number of unique
passwords can be found by multiplying 26 by itself 5 times or (26)5=11,881,376. If we do
not repeat letters, then we need to subtract one each time we
multiply: 2625242322=7,893,600.