Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Quality
INDE 6363
Dr. Elias Keedy
1
Introduction
2
Quality and Variability
Definition of quality
Numerical descriptions
Probability distributions
3
Describing Variation (I)
Graphical Methods
1. Histogram (Section 3.1.2)
2. Box Plot (Section 3.1.4)
What properties can be displayed? (Example: Ex 3-4)
Location (i.e., center) of the data
Spread of the data
Shape (i.e., symmetric, short-tail) of the data
4
Exercise: Probability Plots
A B
Measures of Shape
Skewness (Symmetry)
Kurtosis (Heaviness of tails)
6
Useful Results on Mean and Variance
If X is a random variable and a and b are constants, then
E[b] b V [b] 0
E[aX ] aE[ X ] V [aX ] a 2V [ X ]
E[aX b] aE[ X ] b V [aX b] a 2V [ X ]
E[ X Y ] E[ X ] E[Y ] V [ X ] E[( X ) 2 ] E[ X 2 ] 2
E[ XY ] E[ X ]E[Y ] V [ X Y ] V [ X ] V [Y ]
7
Describing Variation (III)
Probability Distributions
Discrete Continuous
Probability Mass Function Probability Density Function
(PMF): p(x) (PDF): f(x)
p(x) f(x)
x a b x
Cumulative Distribution Function Cumulative Distribution Function
(CDF): F(x) (CDF): F(x)
F(x)
F(x) 1
8
x x
Important Distributions
Discrete Probability Distributions
Hypergeometric distribution
Binomial distribution
Poisson distribution
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Hypergeometric Distribution
+ N (Total # of
D
all items)
(# of Items
of Interest)
+
n
x
(# of items selected
~Hypergeomitric w/o replacement)
11
Binomial Distribution
Bernoulli trials:
1) Two mutually exclusive outcomes
2) All trials statistically independent
3) Constant probability of success p
Binomial distribution:
Number of "success, x, in n Bernoulli trials follows Binomial dist.
When to use this model in quality control?
Sampling from an infinitely large population. The constant p
usually represents the fraction of defective or nonconforming items
in the population Acceptance Sampling
12
Binomial Distribution
n x nx
p(x) = x p (1 p) x = 0,1,2,...,n 0 p 1
13
Estimation of Binomial Distribution
Parameter
p is the ratio of the observed number of defective or
nonconforming items in a sample x to the sample size n
x
p
n
p(1 p)
p p 2p
n
the probability distribution of p is obtained from the binomial
x [ na ]
n x
a} P{ a} P{x na} p (1 p) n x
P{p
n x 0 x
14
Examples
1. A production process operates with 1% nonconforming output. Every
hour a sample of 25 units of product is taken, and the number of
nonconforming units counted. If one or more nonconforming units
are found, the process is stopped and the quality control technician
must search for the cause of nonconforming production. Evaluate
the performance of this decision rule.
15
Poisson Distribution
Assumptions:
Occurrences are statistically independent
Occurrences are equally likely to occur within any unit of
time/area
The average occurrence rate (per unit) is a known constant
The number of random events occurring during a
specific time period follows Poisson distribution
e x
p ( x) , x 0,1,...
x!
, 2
When to use this model in quality control?
Number of defects on a unit
Number of random occurrences in a period of time
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Poisson Distribution
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Example
Surface-finish defects in a small electric appliance occur at random
with a mean rate of 0.1 defects per unit. Find the probability that a
randomly selected unit will contain at least one surface-finish defect.
N: population size
Hypergeometric
n: sample size
Poisson
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Exercises: What is the distribution of x?
1. A production process operates with 2% nonconforming output.
Every hour a sample of 50 units of product is taken, and the
number of nonconforming units counted as x.
2. 60% of pulleys are produced using Lathe #1, 40% are produced
using Lathe #2. A random sample of four production parts
containing x parts coming from Lathe #1.
3. Circuit boards are produced in lots of size 20. The sample of size
3 is drawn from the lot at one time and tested. The lot contains 3
nonconforming boards and x is the number of nonconforming
boards in the sample.
4. Let x be the number of misprints on one page of a daily
newspaper, if the average misprints per page is 2.
7. A book of 200 pages with 2 error pages. There are x error pages
in a random selection of 10 pages
8. The probability that a salesman will make a sale on one call is 0.3.
Each day, this salesman makes 10 calls. Let x denote the number
of sales made in one day.
10. The probability that a basketball player will make a free throw is
0.7. Let x denote the number of free throws he will make in a
game of seven free throw attempts.
22
Normal Distribution
f(x) (z)
2 1
x z
0
x ~ N ( , 2 ) x
z ~ N (0,1)
1
f(x) = e(x)2/22 x
22
E(x) = V(x) = 2
23
Normal Distribution
Some useful formulas:
P{z a} 1 P{z a}
P{z a} P{z a}
P{z a} P{z a}
Example:
A quality characteristic of a product is normally distributed with mean
and standard deviation one. Specifications on the characteristic
are 6 < x < 8. A unit that falls within specifications on this quality
characteristic results in a profit of C0=1. However, if x < 6 or if x > 8,
the profit is 0. Find the value of that maximizes the expected
profit.
24
Linear Combinations
Example:
Three shafts are made and assembled in a linkage. The length of
each shaft, in centimeters, is distributed as follows:
Length of Shaft 1 ~ N(75, 0.09)
Length of Shaft 2 ~ N(60, 0.16)
Length of Shaft 3 ~ N(25, 0.25)
a) What is the distribution of the length of the linkage?
b) What is the probability that the length of the linkage will be
longer than 160.5 cm? Longer than 159.5 cm?
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* Central Limit Theorem *
Let x1, x2, , xn be a random sample of size n taken from a
population with mean and variance 2, and if y=x1+x2++xn,
then, when n is large enough,
y ~ N (n , n 2 )
t distribution
F distribution
27
ChiSquare Distribution
The Chi-square distribution is associated with the sum of squared
standard normal random variables.
If x1, x2, , xn are independent standard normal random variables,
and 2
y x1 x2 xn
2 2
2
then y follows n , a chi-square distribution with n degrees of
freedom. 1 ( n / 2 ) 1 y / 2
f ( y) y e
2 (n / 2)
n/2
( ) = ( 1) ( 2)... 3 2 1 for even
2 2 2
5 3
= ( 1) ( 2)... for odd
2 2 2 2 2
E(y) = n V(y) = 2n
2 x (u / 2) 1
f ( x) ,0 x
u u
(u v ) / 2
2 2 2 x 1
N: population size
Hypergeometric
n: sample size
Normal
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Example
A textbook has 500 pages on which typographical errors could
occur. Suppose that there are exactly 10 error pages randomly
located on those pages.
(1) Find the probability that 50 randomly selected pages will contain
at least two error pages.
(2) Calculate the desired probability in (1) using the Binomial,
Poisson, and Normal approximations. Which approximations are
satisfactory? Why?
32
Example
An electronic component for a laser range-finder is produced in lots of size N = 25. An
acceptance testing procedure is used by the purchaser to protect against lots that contain
too many nonconforming components. The procedure consists of selecting five
components at random from the lot (without replacement) and testing them. If none of the
components is nonconforming, the lot is accepted.
a. If the lot contains three nonconforming components, what is the probability of lot
acceptance?
b. Calculate the desired probability in (a) using the binomial approximation. Is this
approximation satisfactory'? Why or why not?
c. Suppose the lot size was N=150. Would the binomial approximation be satisfactory in
this case?
d. Suppose that the purchaser will reject the lot with the decision rule of finding one or
more nonconforming components in a sample of size n, and wants the lot to be rejected
with probability at least 0.95 if the lot contains five or more nonconforming components.
How large should the sample size n be?
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