Energy

Mix
 STEPS IN DETERMINING AND ANALYZING ENERGY
MIX ECONOMICS

1. Using the load curve (or LDC), determine mix on the basis of the
components of the load curve; namely, base-load, mid-to-peak load, and
ancillary.

2
 Load Curves and LDC
Annual
Monthly
Daily
 1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000

0
10,000
1
88
175
262
349
436
523
610
697
784
871
958
1045
1132
1219
1306
1393
1480
1567
1654
1741
1828
1915
2002
2089
2176
2263
2350
2437
2524
2611
2698
2785
2872
2959
3046
3133
3220
3307
3394
3481
3568
3655
3742
3829
3916
4003
4090
4177
4264
4351
4438
4525
4612
4699
Luzon Demand

4786
4873
4960
5047
5134
5221
5308
5395
5482
5569
5656
5743
5830
5917
6004
6091
6178
6265
6352
6439
6526
6613
6700
6787
6874
6961
7048
7135
7222
7309
7396
7483
7570
7657
7744
7831
7918
8005
8092
8179
8266
8353
8440
8527
8614
8701
 Energy Mix
% of Peak % of Gwh
From LDC
Demand Demand

2015 Luzon LF = 0.75 0.750 Per Unit Total Energy 0.750 100%

2015 Luzon Peak , MW 9,000 100%

2015 Luzon Base, MW 5,000

Raao of Base to Peak = Per

Unit Base 0.5556 56% Per Unit Base Energy 0.556 74%

Per Unit mid- to peak 0.4444 44% Per Unit Mid- Peak Energy 0.194 26%

Largest Unit, MW 647

 STEPS IN DETERMINING AND ANALYZING ENERGY
MIX ECONOMICS
1.
Using the load curve (or LDC), determine mix on the basis of the components of the
load curve; namely, base-load, mid-to-peak load, and ancillary.

2. Determine technologies for each component of the load curve using basic rule of
power system economics of a veracally integrated uality; namely, a) the base-load
component are supplied by technologies with high capex and low variable/fuel costs;
and, b) mid- to peak load are supplied by technologies with low capex and high
variable/fuel costs. Moreover, they lend themselves to cycling and on/o operaaon
and control of capacity output

8
 1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000

0
10,000
1
88
175
262
349
436
523
610
697
784
871
958
1045
1132
1219
1306
1393
1480
1567
1654
1741
1828
1915
2002
2089
2176
2263
2350
2437
2524
2611
2698
2785
2872
2959
3046
3133
3220
3307
3394
3481
3568
3655
3742
3829
3916
4003
4090
4177
4264
4351
4438
4525
4612
4699
Luzon Demand

4786
4873
4960
5047
5134
5221
5308
5395
5482
5569
5656
5743
5830
5917
6004
6091
6178
6265
6352
6439
6526
6613
6700
6787
6874
6961
7048
7135
7222
7309
7396
7483
7570
7657
7744
7831
7918
8005
8092
8179
8266
8353
8440
8527
8614
8701
Technology vs. Load Curve Component

Base Capacity Coal, Geothermal, Base Hydro, Must-dispatched REs

Mid-merit Capacity Hydro, Gas, Diesel Engines

Peaking Capacity Hydro, Gas, Diesel Engines

Ancillary Capacity Hydro, Gas, Diesel Engines

 Energy Mix
% of Peak % of Gwh
From LDC
Demand Demand

2015 Luzon LF = 0.75 0.750 Per Unit Total Energy 0.750 100%

2015 Luzon Peak , MW 9,000 100%

2015 Luzon Base, MW 5,000

Raao of Base to Peak = Per

Unit Base 0.5556 56% Per Unit Base Energy 0.556 74%

Per Unit mid- to peak 0.4444 44% Per Unit Mid- Peak Energy 0.194 26%

Largest Unit, MW 647

 STEPS IN DETERMINING AND ANALYZING ENERGY
MIX ECONOMICS
1.
Using the load curve (or LDC), determine mix on the basis of the components of the
load curve; namely, base-load, mid-to-peak load, and ancillary.

2. Determine technologies for each component of the load curve using basic rule of
power system economics of a veracally integrated uality; namely, a) the base-load
component are supplied by technologies with high capex and low variable/fuel costs;
and, b) mid- to peak load are supplied by technologies with low capex and high
variable/fuel costs. Moreover, they lend themselves to cycling and on/o operaaon
and control of capacity output.

3. Distribute mix among the technologies using (1) & (2). Opamize mix on the basis of
the following criteria/constraints:

1) Cost-of electricity generaaon
2) Environmental impact
3) Security of supply

a) Indigenous vs. imported
b) Weather dependency
c) Geopoliacs

16
 Must-dispatched REs

MW installed % of Total % of Total MW Installed %

o f Base % of Base
% Peak Energy at 0.25 Energy at 0.40 % Base Energy at Energy at
Demand CF ave CF ave Demand 0.25 CF 0.40 CF

5.56% 1.85% 2.96% 10.00% 2.50% 4.00%

10.00% 3.33% 5.33% 18.00% 4.50% 7.20%

18.75% 6.25% 10.00% 33.75% 8.44% 13.50%

30.00% 10.00% 16.00% 54.00% 13.50% 21.60%

 Energy Mix

Peak Load, MW 9,000 2015 Year

Largest Unit,
MW 647

Approx.
MW (from Load Required Net % of Peak % of Required % of Gwh
% of peak Capacity
Curve and LDC) Capacity Demand Installed Capacity Demand
Factor Required Gross Capacity
+Maintenance Capacity
Base Capacity 5,000 56% 5,000 6,173
1.00 69% 48% 74%
Mid-merit Capacity 3,000 33% 3,000 3,508
26%
Peaking Capacity 1,000 11% 1,000 1,169 73% 52%

Ancillary Capacity 18% 1,654 1,935

100% 9,000
Total Demand Check

Total with ancillary check 118% 10,654

Total with ancillary 12,786

+maintenance capacity
(Required Installed
Capacity)
 Costs to Consumers of Mix
For a uality, generaaon costs component will
be the same for all if at rate. But a Time-of-
Use (TOU) enables those with high Load
Factor (LF) to get lower rates. The
deregulated generaaon sector mirrors a TOU-
based rate determinaaon for end-users.
Costs to Consumers of Mix

Rate

FIT

Load Factor
 Energy Mix
Technologies

% of Required
% of Peak % of Gwh
Installed Must-
Demand Demand Geother- Base Peaking Total
Capacity Coal dispatched Gas Oil
mal Hydro Hydro Check
REs

Base Capacity
69% 48% 74% 30% 18% 48%
Mid-merit Capacity
26%
Peaking Capacity 73% 52% 12% 30% 10% 52%

Ancillary Capacity

TOTAL 100% 30% 30% 30% 10% 100%

Based on DOE's Installed Capacity Mix

2016 39% 5% 5% 17% 21% 9% 96%

27%
 Energy Mix

Peak Load, MW 9,000 2015 Year

Largest Unit,
MW 647

Approx.
MW (from Load Required Net % of Peak % of Required
% of peak Capacity
Curve and LDC) Capacity Demand Installed Capacity
Factor Required Gross Capacity
+Maintenance Capacity
Base Capacity 5,000 56% 1.00 5,000 6,173 69% 48%
Mid-merit Capacity 3,000 33% 3,000 3,508
Peaking Capacity 1,000 11% 1,000 1,169 73% 52%
Ancillary Capacity 18% 1,654 1,935

Total Demand Check 100% 9,000

Total with ancillary check 118% 10,654

Total with ancillary 12,786

+maintenance capacity
(Required Installed
Capacity)
 Energy Mix
% of Required Technologies
% of Peak % of Gwh Must-
Installed Geother- Base Peaking Total
Demand Demand Coal Gas Oil
Capacity mal dispatched REs Hydro Hydro Check
Base Capacity 69% 48% 74% 30% 18% 48%

Mid-merit Capacity
26%
73% 52% 12% 30% 10% 52%
Peaking Capacity
Ancillary Capacity
TOTAL 100% 30% 30% 30% 10% 100%

Based on DOE's Installed Capacity Mix

2016 39% 5% 5% 17% 21% 9% 96%

27%

Based on Share of Gwh Demand (Energy-based)

47% 27% 26% 100%

2016 61% 8% 2% 29% 100%

71%