ED 79.

15 Urban Economics and Finance

Climate Change Vulnerability to Agriculture Expansion in

Ayeyarwady Division, Myanmar

Assignment No 1

Name- Kyu Thin Cho

(CHO) st118484
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Climate Change Vulnerability to Agriculture Expansion in Ayeyarwady Division,

Myanmar
1 Introduction

Climate change of todays world is taking place on global scale and has been affected
to our eco system. The human activities are the major causes of climate change, also known
as global warming, sea level rise, scarce rainfall, drought, extreme heat and cold waves and
the increased greenhouse gases. There are several causes of climate change, but the root
cause may be the increased of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The deforestation, fossil
fuel burning and other carbon dioxide emission can be resulted in climate change.
Deforestation is the major cause of climate change and it is the result of logging and
agriculture expansion. Since the forests are natural carbon sinks and the extreme
deforestation has great impact on the climate change.

Myanmar is an agricultural country and a majority of employment and income is

provided by agricultural activities and products, therefore, the agriculture sector is the most
important for the countrys economic development. However, the agricultural expansion can
lead to deforestation. The climatic condition in Myanmar has been changed obviously after
the year 1977.
According to the Initial National Communication (INC) project report jointly
implemented by National Commission for Environmental Affairs (NCEA) and UNEP, from
1988 to 2000, the monsoon duration was shortened by about three weeks in the northern part
and by one week in other parts of Myanmar compared to the years 1951 - 2000. The year
2009 was an El Nino year with decreased annual rainfall, with heavy rains in some areas and
with droughts in others.
The report includes two parts, introduction and case study. The introduction is about
climate change and agriculture, deforestation for agriculture activities and climate change
consequences in Myanmar. The case study is based on Ayeyarwady Delta, and the secondary
data are from journals, articles, books and websites in relation to deforestation and climate
change. Then, the conclusions and recommendations are conducted.

Objectives
To show that agriculture has been the principle driver of deforestation on the Delta.
To suggest clear land use planning for forest conservation.

2 Case Study: Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar

2.1 Methodology

To show that agriculture has been the principle driver of deforestation on

the Delta
To know the deforestation rate from 1978 to 2011
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Use novel remote sensing analysis

Reviews on deforestation literatures

RESULTS

Climate Change Vulnerability to Deforestation

Conclusions
Recommendations
A novel remote sensing analysis is used to quantify deforestation rates for the Delta
from 1978 to 2011 (33 years period), develop business-as-usual deforestation scenarios. Also
include reviews on deforestation literatures that relate to agricultural production with forest
transitions. The results are used in an analysis of the principal drivers of land-cover change
and climate change vulnerability. The objective is to show that mangrove systems of
Myanmar are under greater threat than previously recognized, and that agriculture has been
the principle driver of deforestation on the Delta.

2.2 Results
2.2.1 Deforestation for agricultural expansion
Since Ayeyarwady delta is known as the rice bowl of Myanmar, the agricultural
expansion is the most significant among other regions. Also, mangrove forests in Myanmar
grow mainly in Ayeyarwady and coastal regions and therefore, deforestation rates are higher
in mangrove forests than in other types of forests.
Mangrove area cover has changed dramatically in the Ayeyarwady Delta since 1978.
Over the 33-year study period, mangrove cover declined by 64.2%, at an average rate of 51
km2 (3.1%) per year, to an area of 938 km2 (range 7051061 km2) in 2011. Deforestation
rate varied substantially over the three periods, from 44.1 km2 per year in 19781989, to 85.5
km2 per year in 19892000, to 23.6 km2 per year from 2000 to 2011. During the 19892000,
44% of remaining mangrove area was lost. The only area of the mangrove not sustaining a
precipitous decline was the Meinmahla Kyun Wildlife Sanctuary and small, remote offshore
islands in Ayeyarwady delta.
The majority of dense mangrove loss was caused by conversion to rain-fed rice paddy,
some of which has likely been abandoned and subsequently regenerated to degraded
mangrove. Mangrove patches, comprising nearly 60% of the total mangrove area in 1978,
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accounted for only 25% of total area by 2011. Most of these remaining fragmented
mangroves are expected to support significantly reduced marine and terrestrial resources
(Barbier, 2003; Polidoro et al., 2010) as well as reduced coastal defense functions (Barbier et
al., 2011). The analysis indicated that rice agriculture has been the dominant driver of
deforestation in the Delta, come along with firewood extraction (see Oo, 2002; Fritz et al.,
2009). This assessment concurs with all previous assessments of land transformations in the
Delta, which highlight the role of rice agriculture and associated agrarian policies in shaping
historical land-use transformations the Delta.
The literature suggests that rice agricultural expansion in the Delta region and in other
parts of Myanmar was largely for smallholder paddy, facilitated by the State through
assistance with land preparation, irrigation and agricultural extension services (Matsuda,
2009).

2.2.2 Climate Change Vulnerability to Deforestation

Deforestation can significantly reduce the natural carbon sinks. Also found that
tropical deforestation dramatically altered temperature, relative humidity, wind, and
precipitation levels (Sud et al).
The effects of climate change on agriculture in the Ayeyarwady delta and coastal
regions are high temperature, irregular rain fall pattern and floods. Floods are major hazards
in Myanmar, 11 percent of all disasters. The mangroves can help stabilize shorelines, reduce
the devastating impacts of natural disasters such as floods, tsunamis and hurricanes. Severe
floods have been increased frequently since there was the large mangrove deforestation.

2.3 Conclusions and Recommendations

From the case study, it can be known that the forest and mangroves in Ayeyarwady
are under considerable threat. Since the population of Myanmar is increasing more, the more
and more agricultural expansion cannot be avoided. Still, Myanmar people are now paying
attention to the climate change effect, especially to floods. The people can easily evidence the
climate change due to deforestation for agribusiness.
Ayeyarwady region being a case in point, the recommendations are suggested as
follow-
Revisit business-as-usual scenarios to reconsider conservation priority-setting and threat
analyses, and to anticipate future drivers of change.
To provide clear land use planning, agro technological changes could simultaneously
facilitate intensification and land sparing for forest conservation (Lambin and Meyfroidt,
2011, but see Morton et al., 2006).
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Policy could require conservation set aside programs funded by large-scale agroindustry,
to not only enhance the current protected area system but also to require large-scale
farming to occur on limited land.

References
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economic models. The World Bank Research Observer 14, 7398.
Angelsen, A., 2010. Policies for reduced deforestation and their impact on agricultural
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Aung, N.M., 2011.In: Agricultural Efficiency of Rice Farmers in Myanmar: A Case Study in
Selected Areas, Institute of Developing Economies Discussion Paper 306
Aung, T.T., Mochida, Y., Than, M.M., 2013. Prediction of recovery pathways of cyclone-
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Barta, P., 2012. Myanmar wins over more old foes. The Wall Street Journal, January 16.

Bissinger, J., 2012. Foreign investment in Myanmar: a resource boom but a development
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(2014). Deforestation in the Ayeyarwady Delta and the conservation implications of an
internationally-engaged Myanmar. Global Environmental Change, 24(1), 321333.
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Wang, C., & Myint, S. (2016). Environmental Concerns of Deforestation in Myanmar 2001
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MOAI. (2015). MYANMAR Climate-Smart Agriculture Strategy.