Professional Documents
Culture Documents
ZLWKWKHXVHRI/$1'6$7VDWHOOLWHGDWD
-DNXE3:DODZHQGHU0RQLND-+DMWR3LRWU,ZDQLXN
6DWHOOLWH5HPRWH6HQVLQJ&HQWUH,QVWLWXWHRI0HWHRURORJ\DQG:DWHU0DQDJHPHQW1DWLRQDO5HVHDUFK
,QVWLWXWH,0*:3,%.UDNRZ3RODQG
'HSDUWPHQWRI&OLPDWRORJ\,QVWLWXWHRI*HRJUDSK\DQG6SDWLDO0DQDJHPHQW-DJLHOORQLDQ8QLYHUVLW\
.UDNRZ3RODQG
'HSDUWPHQWRI$LU3ROOXWLRQ0RQLWRULQJDQG0RGHOOLQJ,QVWLWXWHRI0HWHRURORJ\DQG:DWHU
0DQDJHPHQW1DWLRQDO5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH,0*:3,%.UDNRZ3RODQG
7HFKQLFDO6XSSRUW'LYLVLRQ(65,3ROVND:DUVDZ3RODQG
$%675$&7
7KH SDSHU SUHVHQWV DQ DGGLWLRQDO $UF*,6 'HVNWRS
WRROER[ IRU DXWRPDWLF UHWULHYDO RI EULJKWQHVV WHPSHUDWXUH
7V ODQG VXUIDFH HPLVVLYLW\ /6( DQG ODQG VXUIDFH
WHPSHUDWXUH /67 IURP /$1'6$7 GDWD 7KH /$1'6$7
7567KHUPDO5HPRWH6HQVLQJ7RROVHPSOR\ODQGVXUIDFH
WHPSHUDWXUH HVWLPDWLRQ SURFHGXUH GHYHORSHG E\ - &
-LPpQH]0XxR]DQG-$6REULQR> DQG@'HWDLOHG
GHVFULSWLRQRIWKLVDOJRULWKPLVLQFOXGHG6SHFLDODWWHQWLRQLV
SDLG WR SUDFWLFDO XVH RI WKH ODQG VXUIDFH WHPSHUDWXUH PDSV
GHULYHG IURP /$1'6$7 GDWD LQ WHUPV RI HQYLURQPHQWDO
UHVHDUFK 1XPHURXV H[DPSOHV DUH UHIHUUHG WR DQG GHWDLOHG
GHVFULSWLRQ RI /$1'6$7 ODQG VXUIDFH WHPSHUDWXUH PDSV
DSSOLFDWLRQ IRU WKHUPDO FRQGLWLRQ UHVHDUFK LQ XUEDQ DUHDV LV
SURYLGHG $ VDPSOH /67 PDS RI DJJORPHUDWLRQ RI .UDNRZ
LQ6RXWKHUQ3RODQGLVLQFOXGHG
,QGH[ 7HUPV $UF*,6 'HVNWRS /$1'6$7 ODQG VXUIDFH
WHPSHUDWXUH756WRROER[DXWRPDWHGSURFHVVLQJ
,1752'8&7,21
/DQG VXUIDFH WHPSHUDWXUH /67 LV DQ LPSRUWDQW SDUDPHWHU
IRU PDQ\ UHVHDUFK DSSOLFDWLRQV DQG $UF*,6 'HVNWRS LV RQH )LJ/$1'6$77567RROER[
RIWKHFRPPRQO\XVHGVRIWZDUHDPRQJ*,6XVHUV7KHUHIRUH
D QHZ $UF*,6 SOXJLQ ZDV FUHDWHG E\ WKH DXWKRUV WR PDNH 7KH/$1'6$77567RROER[FRQVLVWVRIWKHIROORZLQJ
WKHFRPSOH[/67UHWULHYDOSURFHGXUHHDVLHUIDVWHUDQGZLGHU WRROV
DSSOLFDEOH
722/6$1'0(7+2'6 7KHUPDO%DQG'1WR%ULJKWQHVV7HPSHUDWXUH7RRO
7KHWRROFRQYHUWVSL[HOYDOXHV'LJLWDOQXPEHUVo'1VRI
/$1'6$7 756 7RROER[ FDQ EH XVHG LQ RUGHU WR SURFHVV /$1'6$7 WKHUPDO EDQG EDQG WR DWVHQVRU VSHFWUDO
ERWK /$1'6$7 70 DQG (70 GDWD ,W FRQVLVWV RI WKUHH UDGLDQFH /V LQ : P VU P XVLQJ DSSURSULDWH
VHSDUDWH WRROV FUHDWHG ZLWK 3\WKRQ VFULSWLQJ ODQJXDJH FRQYHUVLRQFRHIILFLHQWVJDLQDQGELDVDFFRUGLQJWRHTXDWLRQ
ILJ DQGWKHQWUDQVIRUPV/VWRDWVHQVRUEULJKWQHVVWHPSHUDWXUH
)LJ7KHUPDO%DQG'1WR%ULJKWQHVV7HPSHUDWXUH7RRO,QWHUIDFH
1'9,7KUHVKROGV7RRO
7KH WRRO HVWLPDWHV ODQG VXUIDFH HPLVVLYLW\ HPSOR\LQJ
1RUPDOL]HG 'LIIHUHQFH 9HJHWDWLRQ ,QGH[ 7KUHVKROGV
0HWKRG 1'9,7+0 SURSRVHG E\ > DQG @ WR GLVWLQJXLVK
EHWZHHQ VRLO SL[HOV 1'9, 1'9,6 SL[HOV RI IXOO
YHJHWDWLRQ 1'9, ! 1'9,9 DQG PL[HG SL[HOV 1'9,6 )LJ1'9,7KUHVKROGV7RRO,QWHUIDFH
1'9,1'9,97KHWKUHVKROGYDOXHVRI1'9,6 DQG
1'9,9 PDNH WKH PHWKRG DSSOLFDEOH IRU JOREDO 5HWULHYH/676LQJOH&KDQQHO$OJRULWKP7RRO
FRQGLWLRQV7KH1'9,LVFDOFXODWHGIURP/$1'6$7EDQGV 7KH WRRO HVWLPDWHV ODQG VXUIDFH WHPSHUDWXUH YDOXHV ZLWK
DQGHTDQGWKHQWKH1'9,YDOXHDUHFRQYHUWHGWRWKH 6LQJOH&KDQQHO6&$OJRULWKP>DQG@DFFRUGLQJWR
/6(XVLQJPRGLILHG1'9,7+07KHHPLVVLYLW\RIVRLODQG HTXDWLRQV D E DQG F 7KH QHFHVVDU\ LQSXW GDWDDUHWKH
IXOOYHJHWDWLRQSL[HOVFDQEHGHILQHGE\WKHXVHUWKHGHIDXOW FDOFXODWHG EULJKWQHVV WHPSHUDWXUH 7V DQG WKH ODQG VXUIDFH
HPLVVLYLW\YDOXHVDUHIRUVRLOSL[HOV 6IRU HPLVVLYLW\GDWDVHWVDVZHOODVVRPHVSHFLILFDWPRVSKHULF
IXOO YHJHWDWLRQ SL[HOV 9 & 7KH IXQFWLRQV $) 7KH $)V DQG DUH XVHG IRU
4372
FRUUHFWLRQ RI WKH DWPRVSKHUH LQIOXHQFH ZKLFK LV YHU\ IURP/$1'6$7GDWD%\GLYLGLQJWKHSURFHGXUHLQWRWKUHH
LPSRUWDQWSDUWRIWKH/67UHWULHYDODOJRULWKP7KH$)VDUH SDUWVLWLVSRVVLEOHWRDSSO\RQO\DSDUWRILWIRUH[DPSOHWR
FRPSXWHG IURP DWPRVSKHULF SDUDPHWHUV DWPRVSKHULF FDOFXODWH RQO\ WKH EULJKWQHVV WHPSHUDWXUH RU WR HPSOR\ DQ
WUDQVPLVVLYLW\XSZHOOLQJDWPRVSKHULFUDGLDQFH/DQG HPLVVLYLW\ GDWDVHW FRPSXWHG ZLWK DQRWKHU PHWKRGWRRO LQ
GRZQZHOOLQJDWPRVSKHULFUDGLDQFH/XVLQJHTXDWLRQVD RUGHUWRFDOFXODWHWKH/677KLVPDNHVWKH/$1'6$7756
EDQGF7KH VLWHVSHFLILFDWPRVSKHULFSDUDPHWHUVFDQEH 7RROV PRUH IOH[LEOH DQG DGRSWDEOH WR WKH XVHU QHHGV 7KH
FDOFXODWHG E\ PHDQV RI DQ DWPRVSKHULF UDGLDWLYH WUDQVIHU /67UHWULHYDOSURFHGXUHLPSOHPHQWHGLQWKH7567RROVLVLQ
PRGHO HJ $&3& $WPRVSKHULF &RUUHFWLRQ 3DUDPHWHU FRQVWDQW GHYHORSPHQW 1XPHURXV DSSOLFDWLRQV ZRUOGZLGH
&DOFXODWRU IUHHO\ DFFHVVLEOH ZHEEDVHG 02'75$1 FRQILUPHGWKDWLWJLYHVYHU\JRRGUHVXOWV
LQWHUIDFH>DQG@7KH6&$OJRULWKPXVHVDOVR3ODQFNV
UDGLDWLRQFRQVWDQWVF :PPVUF 7KH7567RROVLVIUHHO\DYDLODEOHIRUVFLHQWLILFXVH,QFDVH
P.DQGWKHHIIHFWLYHZDYHOHQJWKORI RI DQ LQWHUHVW QHZ XVHUV DUH NLQGO\ UHTXHVWHG WR FRQWDFW
/$1'6$770(70EDQG7KHWRROLQWHUIDFHLVVKRZQ DXWKRUVGLUHFWO\
LQILJ
$33/,&$7,216
/67 J > \ / V \ \ @ G D
H 5HPRWHO\VHQVHGODQGVXUIDFHWHPSHUDWXUHLVZLGHO\XVHGLQ
PHWHRURORJLFDO DQG FOLPDWRORJLFDO UHVHDUFK HVSHFLDOO\ IRU
F /V O /V
H[SORULQJ XUEDQ KHDW LVODQG 8+, HIIHFW >@ 7KH /67 LV
J E DOVR D NH\ SDUDPHWHU IRU QXPHURXV HQYLURQPHQWDO UHVHDUFK
7V F O VXFK DV PRQLWRULQJ HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ >@ GURXJKW
DVVHVVPHQW >@ ODQGVFDSH VWXGLHV >@ KHDOWK ULVN
G J /V 7V F GHWHUPLQDWLRQ >@ DLU TXDOLW\ LQYHVWLJDWLRQV >@ DQG
JHRWKHUPDOKHDWIOX[HVWLPDWLRQ>@
D $GYDQWDJHV RI WKH /$1'6$7 GDWD DQG WKH6LQJOH&KDQQHO
\
W $OJRULWKPLQHVWLPDWLRQRIODQGVXUIDFHWHPSHUDWXUHSDWWHUQV
LQXUEDQDUHDVZHUHDOVRH[DPLQHGE\WKHDXWKRUVWKHPVHOYHV
/n E >@ ([DPSOH RI /$1'6$7 WKHUPDO EDQG LPDJH DQG
\ /p UHFDOFXODWHG /67 PDS VKRZLQJ YHU\ VLJQLILFDQW VSDWLDO
W
YDULDELOLW\RIODQGVXUIDFHWHPSHUDWXUHLQWKHFLW\RI.UDNRZ
3RODQGDUHSUHVHQWHGLQILJXUH
\ /p F ,W FDQ EH VHHQ LQ WKH PDS WKDW VSDWLDO UHVROXWLRQ RI
/$1'6$7 WKHUPDO LPDJHV 70 P [ P (70
P[PLVVXIILFLHQWHQRXJKWR
D UHFRJQL]HVLQJOHHPLWWHUVRIDUWLILFLDOKHDW
E H[DPLQH FRPSOH[ VWUXFWXUH RI WKHUPDO PRVDLF RI XUEDQ
VXUIDFHVLQUHODWLRQWRVSDWLDOYDULDELOLW\RIGLIIHUHQWODQG
XVHODQGFRYHUW\SHV
5()(5(1&(6
>@-&-LPpQH]0XxR]DQG-$6REULQR$JHQHUDOL]HGVLQJOHFKDQQHO
PHWKRGIRUUHWULHYLQJODQGVXUIDFHWHPSHUDWXUHIURPUHPRWHVHQVLQJGDWD
- *HRSK\V 5HV YRO QR ' S '2,
-'
>@ - $ 6REULQR - & -LPpQH]0XxR] DQG / 3DROLQL /DQG VXUIDFH
WHPSHUDWXUHUHWULHYDOIURP/DQGVDW705HPRWH6HQV(QYLURQYRO
QRSS
>@-&ULVWyEDO-&-LPpQH]0XxR]-$6REULQR01LQ\HURODDQG;
3RQV ,PSURYHPHQWV LQ ODQG VXUIDFH WHPSHUDWXUH UHWULHYDO IURP WKH
/DQGVDW VHULHV WKHUPDO EDQG XVLQJ ZDWHU YDSRXU DLU WHPSHUDWXUH -
*HRSK\V5HVYROQR''2,-'
)LJ1'9,7KUHVKROGV7RRO,QWHUIDFH
7KHWKUHHSUHVHQWHGWRROVFRUUHVSRQGWRWKHPDLQWKUHHSDUWV
RIWKHZKROHSURFHGXUHRIODQGVXUIDFHWHPSHUDWXUHUHWULHYDO
4373
)LJ /$1'6$7(70 ELW JUH\ VFDOH WKHUPDO >EDQG P@ LPDJH RI 6RXWKHUQ 3RODQG UHJLVWHUHG RQ -XO\ OHIW
DQGWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJODQGVXUIDFHWHPSHUDWXUHPDSRI.UDNRZDQGWKHQHDUHVWVXUURXQGLQJVRIWKHFLW\ULJKW
>@ - & -LPpQH]0XxR] - &ULVWyEDO - $ 6REULQR * 6zULD 0
1LQ\HUROD DQG ; 3RQV 5HYLVLRQ RI WKH 6LQJOH&KDQQHO $OJRULWKP IRU >@ 0 & $QGHUVRQ 5 * $OOHQ $ 0RUVH DQG : 3 .XVWDV 8VH RI
/DQG6XUIDFH7HPSHUDWXUH5HWULHYDO)URP/DQGVDW /DQGVDW WKHUPDO LPDJHU\ LQ PRQLWRULQJ HYDSRWUDQVSLUDWLRQ DQG PDQDJLQJ
7KHUPDO,QIUDUHG'DWD,(((7UDQV*HRVFL5HPRWH6HQVYROQR ZDWHU UHVRXUFHV 5HPRWH 6HQV (QYLURQ LQ SUHVV '2,
SS'2,7*56 -56(
>@ * &KDQGHU %/ 0DUNKDP DQG '/ +HOGHU 6XPPDU\ RI FXUUHQW >@ = *DR : *DR DQG 1 &KDQJ ,QWHJUDWLQJ WHPSHUDWXUH YHJHWDWLRQ
UDGLRPHWULFFDOLEUDWLRQFRHIILFLHQWVIRU/DQGVDW06670(70DQG(2 GU\QHVVLQGH[ 79',DQGUHJLRQDOZDWHUVWUHVVLQGH[5:6,IRUGURXJKW
$/,VHQVRUV5HPRWH6HQV(QYLURQYROSS DVVHVVPHQW ZLWK WKH DLG RI /$1'6$7 70(70 LPDJHV ,QW - $SSO
(DUWK 2EV *HRLQI YRO SS '2,
>@ - $ 6REULQR =/ /L DQG 0 3 6WROO 6LJQLILFDQFH RI WKH UHPRWHO\ --$*
VHQVHG WKHUPDO LQIUDUHG PHDVXUHPHQWV REWDLQHG RYHU D FLWUXV RUFKDUG
,6356-3KRWRJUDPP5HPRWH6HQVYROSS >@ 0 +DLV DQG 7 .XHUD 7KH LQIOXHQFH RI WRSRJUDSK\ RQ WKH IRUHVW
VXUIDFH WHPSHUDWXUH UHWULHYHG IURP /DQGVDW 70 (70 DQG $67(5
>@ - $ 6REULQR - & -LPpQH]0XxR] * 6zULD 0 5RPDJXHUD / WKHUPDOFKDQQHOV,6356-3KRWRJUDPP5HPRWH6HQVYROSS
*XDQWHU - 0RUHQR $ 3OD]D DQG 3 0DUWtQH] /DQG VXUIDFH HPLVVLYLW\ '2,-,6356-356
UHWULHYDO IURP GLIIHUHQW 91,5 DQG 7,5 VHQVRUV ,((( 7UDQV *HRVFL
5HPRWH 6HQV YRO QR SS >@ < .HVWHQV $ %UDQG 0 )RXUQLHU 6 *RXGUHDX 7 .RVDWVN\ 0
'2,7*56 0DOROH\ DQG $ 6PDUJLDVVL 0RGHOOLQJ WKH YDULDWLRQ RI ODQG VXUIDFH
WHPSHUDWXUH DV GHWHUPLQDQW RI ULVN RI KHDWUHODWHG KHDOWK HYHQWV ,QW -
>@ 7 1 &DUOVRQ DQG ' $ 5LSOH\ 2Q WKH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ 1'9, +HDOWK*HRJUYRO'2,;
IUDFWLRQDO YHJHWDWLRQ FRYHU DQG OHDI DUHD LQGH[ 5HPRWH 6HQV (QYLURQ
YROQRSS >@/:DOGDQG-0%DOH\QDXG2EVHUYLQJDLUTXDOLW\RYHUWKHFLW\RI
1DQWHV E\ PHDQV RI /DQGVDW WKHUPDO LQIUDUHG GDWD ,QW - 5HPRWH6HQV
>@- $%DUVL-/%DUNHUDQG6FKRWW-5$Q$WPRVSKHULF&RUUHFWLRQ YROQRSS
3DUDPHWHU &DOFXODWRU IRU D 6LQJOH 7KHUPDO %DQG (DUWK6HQVLQJ
,QVWUXPHQW LQ 3URF ,((( ,*$566 7RXORXVH )UDQFH SS >@ 0 % 0LD & - %URPOH\ DQG < )XMLPLWVX 0RQLWRULQJ KHDW IOX[
XVLQJ/DQGVDW70(70WKHUPDOLQIUDUHGGDWD$FDVHVWXG\DW.DUDSLWL
&UDWHUV RI WKH 0RRQ WKHUPDO DUHD 1HZ =HDODQG - 9ROF *HRWKHUP
>@ -$%DUVL-56FKRWW)'3DOOXFRQLDQG6-+RRN9DOLGDWLRQ 5HV YRO SS '2,
RI D :HE%DVHG $WPRVSKHULF &RUUHFWLRQ 7RRO IRU 6LQJOH 7KHUPDO %DQG --92/*(25(6
,QVWUXPHQWVLQ3URF63,(%HOOLQJKDP:$YRO
>@-:DODZHQGHU0+DMWR$VVHVVPHQWRIWKHUPDOFRQGLWLRQVLQ
>@ & - 7RPOLQVRQ / &KDSPDQ -( 7KRUQHVDQG& %DNHU 5HPRWH XUEDQ DUHDV ZLWK XVH RI GLIIHUHQW VDWHOOLWH GDWD DQG *,6 (80(76$7
VHQVLQJ ODQG VXUIDFH WHPSHUDWXUH IRU PHWHRURORJ\ DQG FOLPDWRORJ\ D 0HWHRURORJLFDO6DWHOOLWH&RQIHUHQFH3URFHHGLQJV3
UHYLHZ0HWHRURO$SSOYROSS
4374