You are on page 1of 8

O

n July 14, 2015, the P5+1 (US, Russia, promising start of the deal, which surmounted
China, UK, France and Germany) and many impediments and reviews in Iranian Majlis
Iran reached a Joint Comprehensive Plan and US Congress, the nuclear deal remains highly
of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear controversial in Tehran and Washington.
deal, to ensure that Irans nuclear program is Questions abound, such as will both sides live up
exclusively peaceful. Thus, the deal aimed at to their commitments and also each others
terminating Irans nuclear weapons program by expectations, will the regime change in US or the
inhibiting Irans capability to produce fissile return of Iranian hardliners breach the terms of the
material.1 Iran affirmed that it will under no deal, will the deal moderate Iran and US behavior
circumstances ever seek, develop or acquire any towards each other, or what would be the reactions
nuclear weapons2 while it envisions international of the regional countries who think that Iran has
cooperation and development of a peaceful nuclear won and they have lost with the signing of the deal.
program for civil and commercial use. Earlier this The answers to these questions, in fact, give a view
year, IAEA declared January 16 as the of the long term sustainability of the Iran nuclear
Implementation Day of JCPOA by Iran. The deal deal, which require a holistic analysis entailing
was culmination of intense international three aspects of the deal: milestones achieved by
negotiations traversing for almost two years with a the deal to date, domestic challenges to the deal,
prequel of heightened tensions over Irans nuclear and regional challenges to the deal.
program for almost over a decade that finally led
Milestones Achieved
the P5+1 and Iran to sit across the table.
Post JCPOA, Iran has been able to take major steps
JCPOA is now seen as the hallmark of the current
to revive its economy, and towards global
Iranian regime and a great success of US Asia
integration. Iran is building trade ties with regional
policy; one of the main objectives of Obamas
and far reaching countries which not only will
Asia policy, among checking Chinas rise, was to
develop efficient and fast way for mutual
dismantle Irans nuclear program.3 Despite a

1
Official document, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, July 14, 2015,
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2165441-iran-nuclear-deal.html.
2
Preface, Ibid.
3
Robert Sutter, The United States in Asia: Challenged but durable leadership, in International Relations of Asia,
eds. David Shambaugh and Michael Yahuda (New Delhi: Pentagon Press, 2010): 86.
[1]
cooperation in the long run but will also serve as finally been passed by the Congress, allaying the
the basis for its development. Irans GDP which concerns that the planes may be used by Iran to
has been lingering in the negatives has now started supply armaments and other facilities to its fighters
projecting positive average growth and inflation in Yemen and Syria.9
has plummeted from 34.7 percent to 11.5 percent.4
Iran and Germany have signed the first
Some of the landmarks that Iran has reached by petrochemical cooperation deal involving the
now, are given here. Exports of oil have reached 2 Linde Group of Germany and Kian Petrochemical
mn. bpd, double the volume of sanctions era Company of Iran.10 Iran is thinking of supplying
restricted export of 1 mn. bpd, and Tehran is oil and gas through Ukraine to Czech and
hoping to reach to an eight-year high production of Slovakian republics.11 Moreover, Iran, India and
4 mn. bpd by the end of this year.5 The main Afghanistan have signed a trilateral agreement in
importers of the Iranian oil are China, Japan, South which the countries will develop rail and road links
Korea and India.6 Iran has also announced new via Iran till Afghanistans Helmand province to
Iran Petroleum Contracts (IPC) to attract foreign increase the volume of trade.12
investors from Europe to develop long term deals
Lastly, before the Iran deal, it was seen as and also
with them for exploration of its under-utilized oil
the western media projected it as a threat against
reserves.7 Non-oil exports of Iran have also
world peace and security. However, as more
experienced a significant growth in comparison to
moderates have made their way to Iranian Majlis
the previous years, soaring by at least 20 percent.8
and Guardian Council, not just Iranophobia is
Iran has initiated long-awaited upgradation of its subsiding, but also with the signing of this deal,
airplane fleet by brokering deal with the US Irans right to uranium enrichment and peaceful
Boeing and Europes AirBus. The deals have uses has been recognized.13

4
Farzan Sabet, The Rouhani Presidency at Three, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, August 18, 2016,
http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/?fa=64356.
5
Gregory Brew, Iran aims to double Oil Exports, These are the hurdles, OilPrice, July 11, 2016,
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iran-Aims-To-Double-Oil-Exports-These-Are-The-Hurdles.html.
6
Heesu Leee, Top Oil Market Embraces Iran Once Again as Asian Imports Jump, Bloomberg, July 28, 2016,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-28/biggest-oil-market-embraces-iran-once-again-as-asia-imports-jump.
7
Sam Wilkin, Iran to Seek Investor bids in October with New Oil Contracts, Bloomberg, August 30, 2016,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-30/iran-to-seek-investment-bids-in-october-under-new-oil-contracts.
8
Irans non Oil Export up by 20%,The Iran Project, August 24, 2016, http://theiranproject.com/blog/2016/08/24/irans-non-
oil-exports-20/.
9
Omer S. Bashir and Eric Lorber, Boeings Art of the Iran Deal, Foreign Affairs, August 28, 2016,
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2016-08-28/boeings-art-iran-deal.
10
Iran, Germany sign 1st petchem cooperation deal IRNA, August 02, 2016, http://www.irna.ir/en/News/82173252/.
11
Zanganeh: Ukraine wants transit of Iranian oil, gas to East Europe, IRNA, August 01, 2016,
http://www.irna.ir/en/News/82171781/.
12
Megha Bahree, India signs deal with Iran and Afghanistan, Paves Way for trade Routes, Forbes Asia, May 24, 2016,
http://www.forbes.com/sites/meghabahree/2016/05/24/india-takes-a-new-step-in-regional-politics/#1c3ea25c4e8e.
13
Rouhani: More talks possible if US fully meets JCPOA commitments, IRNA, August 02, 2016,
http://www.irna.ir/en/News/82173357/.

[2]
Provisions of
Detail Duration
the deal
Plutonium 1. Spent fuel produced in the redesigned Arak heavy water The provisions are for 15 years but
Route reactor will always be shipped out of the country for the even after that, when the ban on
lifetime of the reactor. building new heavy-water reactors
2. Iran is not allowed to build additional heavy-water reactors and a reprocessing plant becomes
or a reprocessing facility to separate plutonium from spent fuel voluntary, Iran would require years
for at least 15 years. to build them. Moreover, to convert
3. Plutonium produced at the Bushehr nuclear power plant will the Arak reactor back to its original
be under the strict supervisions of IAEA. specifications, it would require years
and the effort would be easily
detected.
Uranium Route 1. Iran will dismantle two-thirds of its installed centrifuges and The deal permits Iran to retain a
will limit research and development on advanced centrifuges substantial uranium enrichment
2. It will eliminate 98 percent of its current enriched uranium infrastructure and to begin to expand
stock. It will maintain a small stockpile of low-enriched that infrastructure after 10 years.
uranium, and cap the level of enrichment to 3.67 percent.
3. Iran will restrict the number and types of centrifuges
installed and operating at Natanz and end enrichment at
Fordow.
IAEA 1. Accepted intrusive transparency and monitoring Iran accepted monitoring of its
Inspection and requirements, including the full implementation of Irans uranium production for 25 years.
Monitoring safeguards agreement with the IAEA and the Additional
Requirements Protocol (in perpetuity).
2. It will implement new measures that go beyond these
standard safeguards arrangements for at least 20 years,
including continuous monitoring of excess centrifuges in
storage, centrifuge manufacturing facilities, and other aspects
of the fuel cycle.
Limitation on 1. Committed not to engage in a variety of activities that are This commitment does not expire.
R&D and associated with nuclear weapons development, including
Weaponization acquiring technologies or equipment that could assist with such
activities work.
Procurement Agreed to only procure items for its civil nuclear program This will remain effective for 10
channels through the channel established by the JCPOA and the UNSC years.
in resolution 2231
Sanctions Relief As soon as Iran implements the provisions of the deal, all the Non-nuclear sanctions, such as those
nuclear related sanctions will be lifted from Iran. relating to human rights abuses and
1. Iran will be permitted access to the roughly $115 billion of support for terrorism, will remain in
oil revenue frozen abroad in a special form of escrow, about place. All restrictions on trade with
half of which would be available (roughly $58 billion is tied up Iran by American businesses, with
in contracts or non-performing loans). the exception of the import of food
2. The U.S. will also rescind many banking sanctions, allowing and carpets and the export of
Iranian banks to reconnect to the global financial system, airplanes and airplane parts will
although they will remain frozen out of the U.S. market. remain.
3. The European Union will end its financial and energy The EUs arms embargo and
sanctions against Iran, including the lifting of the oil embargo restrictions on the transfer of ballistic
imposed in 2012. Also lift sanctions on shipping and missile technology will remain in
shipbuilding and on gold and precious metals. Lift asset freezes place for 8 years or until the IAEA
on Iranian institutions, including on the Central Bank of Iran. reaches a broader conclusion,
whichever is earlier.
Data gathered from Iran Nuclear deal: A Definitive Guide (Cambridge, Mass.: Report for Belfer Center for Science and
International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, August 03, 2015). For more on sanction relief, see Cheat Sheet: Timing of US
Iran Sanctions Relief by Center for Strategic and International Studies, https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-
public/legacy_files/files/publication/150723_Iran_Sanctions_cheat_sheet_final.pdf.

[3]
Domestic Context prohibits US and also non US companies from
doing business with them. For example, US banks
Iran feels that the aspirations with which it set forth
are warned of conducting transactions with
for signing the deal, it hasnt been able to
Iranians banks that are accused of connections
accomplish them.14 The Rouhani regime expected
with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.18
that Iran would experience a first wave of
economic relief by renewing its ties with the Asian If the JCPOA does not bring the economic benefits
and European companies, as the nuclear related that Iran expected, this will give impetus to the
sanctions would subside. Conversely, the expected opposition of the deal within Iran. The head of the
relief did not come. The United States removed all Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Ali
the sanctions it had levied on the European and Akbar Salehi has warned of a reversibility
Asian companies to conduct businesses with Iran, mechanism that can enable Tehran to return to its
however, it has retained the sanctions for nuclear program if the other side does not live up
American firms and banks.15 Most international to its commitments.19 Moreover, many in Iran
companies are hesitant to enter the Iranian market, think that the tactic the US wants to follow is not
largely because they rely on financial institutions to sabotage the deal but to create an atmosphere of
and banks which conduct transactions in US uncertainty predicated on gradual removal of
dollars. However, due to the impositions of US sanctions20 so that international banks and
sanctions on American banks on dealing with the companies feel inhibition in doing business with
transactions involving Iran, the banks cannot Iran, which will, ultimately, minimize the returns
facilitate or clear Irans US dollar-denominated for which Iran complied to the deal.21
transactions.16 Thus, the US sanctions prohibiting
The second domestic challenge to the deal comes
its banks and companies to have trade with Iran,
from the hardliners in Iran who have been the
have made difficult for Iran to reestablish its
domestic opponents of the deal, too. Generally
banking channels and also much of its trade and
known as the conservatives, they constitute a large
business with the outside world.17 Moreover, while
part in countrys key institutions, like Majlis,
the US only lifted the secondary sanctions
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),
related to the non-US persons and companies, it
has also kept 200 Iranian or Iran related entities in
its black list, List of Specifically Designated
Nationals and Blocked Persons (SDN List), which

14
Rouhani: Future Trust in US if it had shown goodwill in JCPOA deal, Tehran Times, August 03, 2016,
http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/404954/Rouhani-Future-trust-in-U-S-if-it-had-shown-goodwill-in-JCPOA.
15
Sahand Moarefy, The Holes in the Iran Deal: And How to Plug them, Foreign Affairs, July 14, 2016,
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2016-07-14/holes-iran-deal.
16
Iran deal excludes access to US financial system: White House, PressTV, April 15, 2016,
http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2016/04/15/460963/US-Iran-nuclear-deal-sanctions-JCPOA.
17
Katherine Bauer, Potential US Clarification of Financial Sanctions Regulations, The Washington Institute, April 05, 2016,
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/potential-u.s.-clarification-of-financial-sanctions-regulations.
18
Iran sanctions: Its Complicated, DW, http://amp.dw.com/en/iran-sanctions-its-complicated/a-19206261.
19
Iran can roll back nuclear program if JCPOA breached: Salehi, PressTV, July 20, 2016,
http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2016/07/20/476134/Iran-nuclear-deal-Salehi-JCPOA-UN-report.
20
US impeding implementation of Iran nuclear deal: Academic, PressTV, April 17, 2016,
http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2016/04/17/461138/US-Iran-JCPOA-Sanctions-Marandi-Walsh.
21
Mousavian: Efforts to undermine JCPOA only serve to reinforce notion US cannot be trusted, IRNA, August 05, 2016,
http://www.irna.ir/en/News/82176197/.

[4]
media, and also big corporations.22 The attempt to breach the terms of the deal can result
conservatives lost much of their ground to the in a severe backlash from Iran, as Ayatollah
moderates in the last Parliament and Guardian Khomeini has boldly warned that if the US tears
Councils elections, which many in Iran and the the agreement, he will put it on fire.25 Moreover,
outside world saw as vindictive of Rouhanis any probable US withdrawal decision would be
integrationist and economic policy.23 Given Irans confronted by whether the next US administration
spectacular rise after the JCPOA, the conservatives is ready to deal with the expansion of Irans
are skeptical that the shifting balance of power in nuclear program, and also, if it has sufficient
Iran may eternally marginalize them from the state support from its allies, like EU, to put the sanctions
institutions. Consequently, the hardliners can use back in their place.26
their political clout to undermine the deal on
Regional Context
pretext that the western influence brought along
with the deal is threatening the ideological pillars Israel
of the Islamic republic.24
While the international community extended
From the US side, the main challenge comes from praises to each other on the signing of JCPOA last
the uncertainty whether the deal will continue to year, Israel stood as vehemently protesting against
garner support in the next administration. Donald the deal, calling it a mistake with historical
Trump has not only called the deal disastrous proportion.27 It contended, and still does, that the
and its so bad that it looks suspicious but also deal does not prevent Iran from reaching nuclear
that if he becomes the President, he will threshold, instead it only delays it and the
renegotiate the terms of the deal to get more provisions of the deal not only legitimize the
concessions from Iran. The US Congress has building of nuclear infrastructure by Iran, but will
objections to Irans behavior outside the deal also ultimately its proliferation efforts. In line with
which includes, its direct military involvement in this, AIPACs last year report on the Iran Nuclear
Syria, its support of other regional proxies, its deal asserted that Israel wants the US to
long-range ballistic missile tests conducted after renegotiate the JCPOA terms, hash-tagging the
the deal which it describes as violation of Security deal as #BadIranDeal.28 Lately, there is a slight
Council resolutions but Iran disagrees, its live-fire change of mood in the Israeli media, which has
military exercises in close proximity to U.S. naval conceded that although its too early to judge the
vessels in the Persian Gulf, etc. However any US 15-years agreement, Iran has complied with most

22
Analysis, In Iran, Political Change at a Measured Pace, Stratfor, Feb 24, 2016, https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/iran-
political-change-measured-pace.
23
Rohollah Faghihi, Rouhani empowered as allies, supporters make gains in Iranian Elections, Iran Pulse-Al-Monitor, March
01, 2016, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/03/iran-parliamentary-assembly-experts-elections-rouhani-
gain.html.
24
Robert Einhorn and Richard Nephew, The Iran Nuclear deal: Prelude to Proliferation in the Middle East, Foreign Policy
Arms Control and Non Proliferation Series, Paper 11 (May 2016): 14-15, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-
content/uploads/2016/05/The-Iran-Nuclear-Dealwebv4.pdf.
25
Irans Khamenei threatens to set fire to the nuclear deal if West violates, Reuters, June 14, 2016,
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-khamenei-idUSKCN0Z02MA.
26
Einhorn and Nephew, The Iran Nuclear deal, Foreign Policy Arms Control and Non Proliferation Series, 13-18.
27
Avner Cohen, Israels Iranian Nuclear Threat: Was it or Wasnt it? In JCPOA: One Year Later, edited by Sharon Squassoni
and Ariane M. Tabatabai (CSIS Report, July 2016).
28
Analysis: The Iran Nuclear Deal (AIPAC, July 28 2015), 10-14,
http://www.aipac.org/~/media/Publications/Comms/IranOnePagers.pdf.

[5]
of its commitments under the JCPOA, adding that follow oil production freeze for OPEC members
after all the deal has been good in terms of buying while Iran expects exemption from it to reclaim its
time.29 At the same time, however, upholding its lost market in Asia and Europe due to the
traditional stance of Iran as an existential threat to embargoes.34 The OPEC members -- including
Israel,30 AIPACs this year report while castigating Iran which does not want to cap its oil production
Irans behavior in the Middle East suggests that the and Russia has spoken in its defense35 -- have
Congress must extend the Iran Sanctions Act agreed to convene in Algeria at the end of
(ISA)31 set to expire at the end of December this September 2016.
year and put tougher restrictions on Iran to
Rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
moderate its behavior, for instance, its missile
countries
activity, support to Hamas and Hezbollah in the
Middle East.32 Like Saudi Arab, the other GCC countries are
concerned about the JCPOAs impact on their
Saudi Arabia
security. For GCC, Irans nuclear threat is
There is one factor common in the conflicts in the secondary while Irans integration and
Middle East, sectarian strife in Pakistan, or recent rapprochement with the West, resulting in the
oil pricing and freeze spat within OPEC, and its growth of its economy is more troublesome as it
the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which may facilitate Tehrans interference in the
is increasingly becoming a zero sum game. For region.36 They speculate that Tehran will use
Saudi Arabia, the signing of JCPOA means that Hezbollah and the Houthis to advance its goals,
Iran has won the game. Saudi Arabia worries about become more emboldened in Syrian and Yemen
Irans influence and role in the Middle East and its conflicts, and ultimately, it will become a
force projection in the region, as its economy dominant power in the region.37 Their fear is
recovers in the post sanctions period.33 To rein in further exacerbated by predictions about shifts in
Irans influence, Saudi Arabia is using both its Americas national security doctrine prompting it
hard power and soft power: Riyadh wants Iran to to curb its forward deployment in the region:38 the

29
Michael Wilner, JCPOA Anniversary: Both sides of Iran deal quick to declare victory, The Jerusalem Post, July 14, 2016,
http://www.jpost.com/International/Analysis-A-year-later-Iran-nuclear-deal-still-too-early-to-assess-460329. Michael Wilner,
JCPOA Anniversary, Has Iran Complied with the Nuclear deal, The Jerusalem Post, August 07, 2016,
http://www.jpost.com/International/JCPOA-Anniversary-Has-Iran-complied-with-the-nuclear-deal-459819.
30
Yaakov Amidror, After the Agreement Israels Perspective, and Ephraim Asculai, The Implications of the Iranian
Nuclear Agreement for Israel, In Tipping the Balance: Implications of the Iran Nuclear Deal on Israeli Security by Belfer
Centers Iran Project (Belfer Center: December 2015), 45-50,
http://belfercenter.hks.harvard.edu/files/Tipping%20the%20Balance%20WEB.pdf.
31
ISA was originally passed by the US Congress in 1996 as Iran Libya Sanctions Act targeting foreign entities supporting Irans energy
sector and those aiding Tehrans attempts to acquire WMD and advanced conventional weapons.
32
Near East Report (AIPAC, July 2016), 2-4, http://www.aipac.org/-/media/publications/comms/julyner.PDF.
33
Dina Esfandiary and Ariane Tabatabai, The Regional Repercussions of the JCPOA, In JCPOA: One Year Later, edited by Squassoni
and Tabatabai (CSIS Report, July 2016), 8-9.
34
Benoit Faucon, Summer Said, and Saurabh Chaturvedi, Saudi Arabia Cuts Asian Oil Prices to Counter Rivals Russia, Iraq
and Iran, Wall Street Journal, August 05, 2016, http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-cuts-asian-oil-prices-to-counter-
rivals-russia-iraq-and-iran-1470416304.
35
Russia eyeing Oil freeze deal with Saudis, IRNA, August 16, 2016, http://www.irandaily.com/News/166940.html.
36
Esfandiary and Tabatabai, The Regional Repercussions of the JCPOA, 8-9.
37
Einhorn and Nephew, The Iran Nuclear deal, 19.
38
Andrew J Bacevich, Ending Endless War: A Pragmatic Military Strategy, Foreign Affairs, September/October 2016 Issue,
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-08-03/ending-endless-war.

[6]
GCC is concerned about its position in the region Afghanistan, etc.42 the situation can become more
in the absence of US military and whether the US serious after the death of veteran Uzbek leader,
will accede to a central role for Iran and shift its Islam Karimov, who died early September 2016,
allegiance from its traditional Arab partners to a and was known for his brutal tactic to keep the
balanced approach between Iran and its Arab militants under control.43
partners, in which Iran would become a U.S.
Recently, Iran allowed Russia to use its Shahid
partner in promoting stability and resolving
Nojeh Airbase in the city of Hamadan to carry out
conflicts.39
attacks in Syria. The other example of Iran-Russia
Irans entente with Russia cooperation are: Iran has signed contracts with
Russia for construction of two nuclear power
Russia played an important role in negotiating the
plants in Bushehr,44 the trade relations between
JCPOA and almost a year after the deal, the
both countries have started experiencing long term
Russian-Iran cooperation has attained new heights.
collaborations encompassing easing visa
Both countries share common goals in Syria crisis,
procedure, increasing rail and road transportation,
which Iran sees as the decisive factor in shaping
encouraging investment, establishing banking
the new world order. Iran is convinced that the US
channels between both countries, etc.
would not support its regional aspirations as the
US trumpets against its clerical rule, human rights However, all this may complicate Irans
condition and on the whole, would never want a rapprochement with the West:45 Irans entente
multipolar world, hence it looks up to cooperation with Russia will particularly not go well with the
with Russia to strengthen its hands in the region.40 US which sees the rapprochement as hurting its
On the other hand, Moscows intervention in long term interests in the Middle East. However, it
Ukraine and confrontations with the US have may also lead the US to improve its ties with Iran
plunged Russia in deep economic problems and to bring it back to its orbit. For this, the US will
isolation. Building a new foreign policy which have to ensure that any blockade for Irans
focuses on national economy and building ties integration into the world economy are removed
with the neighboring countries, Russia is and also that it should follow a neutral foreign
expanding its ties with a rising Iran.41 Moreover, policy in the Middle East.46
both countries also see a convergence of interests
Conclusion
in Central Asia and Caucuses region where a new
form of menace is emerging by the terrorists It is too early to predict the outcome of JCPOA as
expelled from the Middle East, who can threaten it has been only a year since it was signed and only
the security of regional countries like Russia, Iran, a few months since it went into force. It will take

39
Einhorn and Nephew, 19-2.
40
Mohsen Milani, Iran and Russias Uncomfortable Alliance, Foreign Affairs, August 31, 2016,
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2016-08-31/iran-and-russias-uncomfortable-alliance.
41
Anna Borshchevskaya, Vladimir Putin and the Shiite Axis, Foreign Policy, August 30, 2016,
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/08/30/vladimir-putin-and-the-shiite-axis-russia-iran-syria/.
42
Rouhani, Putin determined for strategic cooperation, IRNA, August 09, 2016, http://www.irna.ir/en/News/82181624/.
43
Erica Marat, Uzbekistan After Karimov, Foreign Affairs, September 07, 2016,
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2016-09-07/uzbekistan-after-karimov.
44
AEOI chief: Construction of 2 nuclear power plants to start in Sept, IRAN DAILY, September 01, 2016, http://www.iran-
daily.com/News/167967.html?catid=3&title=AEOI-chief--Construction-of-2-nuclear-power-plants-to-start-in-Sept.
45
Milani, Iran and Russias Uncomfortable Alliance.
46
Ibid.

[7]
more time to have a better analysis of the pay-off country in its Silk Road Project48 and Russia and
that Iran and the P5+1 have been awarded from the Iran have explored cooperation not only in defence
deal. and economic field, but also in the Middle East.
With the adoption of UN Resolution 2231, The long term sustainability of the deal is
sanctions imposed by the UNSC and the P5+1, important not only for the stability of relations
especially the US and European sanctions stood between Iran and the West, especially the US, but
revoked. However, most of the primary sanctions it will also determine the security dynamics of
imposed by the US remain in place. While the EU Middle East. For its part, Iran had complied with
has also removed the sanctions on Iran, its banks the deal when it rolled back its nuclear program on
are hesitant in entering the Iranian market for fear January 16 and now its time for the US to show
of US penalties.47 On the other hand, the other its commitment to the deal, which is important for
P5+1 members have removed the trade embargoes a stabilizing influence on the region and also on
from Iran, for example, China sees Iran as a major the world.

Prepared by Kulsoom Belal | For queries: Mairaj-ul-Hamid, Asst. Research Coordinator, mairaj@ips.net.pk | www.ips.org.pk

47
Europeans United with Iran Against US: Nahavandian, Tehran Times, September 26, 2016,
http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/406733/Europeans-united-with-Iran-against-U-S-Nahavandian.
48 M A Saki, Iran is a major country in Silk Road Project, Tehran Times, September 24, 2016,

http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/406659/Iran-is-a-major-country-in-Silk-Road-project-expert.

[8]

You might also like