TALLER No.

1 PRONSTICOS

La directora de trfico de una empresa de fabricacin de cortadoras de csped de tamao medio

reuni en la siguiente tabla los datos de los envos de los ltimos diez aos:

AO CDIGO GRUPO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC

2010 10103010 G1 4.779 12.523 12.500 15.119 21.371 12.161 13.965 11.619 3.385 4.120 12.721 9.710

2010 10103020 G2 6.578 5.427 8.656 6.654 8.483 4.534 11.253 9.406 4.681 5.775 9.311 8.164

2010 10103110 G3 1.690 5.558 2.381 4.669 6.320 7.195 7.349 6.310 2.813 3.630 2.237 4.652

2010 10103120 G4 1.690 5.558 2.381 4.669 6.320 7.195 7.349 6.310 2.813 4.024 2.237 4.652

2010 10103210 G5 4.129 1.191 4.092 3.793 3.507 4.263 3.802 4.164 3.200 2.405 1.841 3.308

2010 10103310 G6 4.129 1.191 4.092 3.793 3.507 4.263 3.802 4.164 3.200 2.405 1.841 3.308

2009 10103010 G1 4.445 11.396 11.345 13.456 15.388 11.067 11.172 8.715 2.945 3.456 9.160 7.963

2009 10103020 G2 5.855 4.776 8.310 4.791 6.532 3.174 7.990 6.773 3.605 4.101 8.194 7.675

2009 10103110 G3 1.589 4.225 1.715 3.269 4.614 6.476 5.733 6.058 2.392 3.522 2.103 3.955

2009 10103120 G4 1.319 3.891 2.239 4.249 5.436 6.332 7.056 5.995 1.970 3.179 1.947 3.908

2009 10103210 G5 3.634 894 2.988 3.452 2.981 3.368 3.498 3.706 2.784 1.997 1.768 2.515

2009 10103310 G6 2.973 1.132 3.151 3.680 3.297 3.709 3.270 3.915 3.104 1.973 1.639 2.945

2008 10103010 G1 3.468 10.827 8.282 12.245 14.927 8.965 9.273 6.188 2.415 3.111 8.428 7.008

2008 10103020 G2 5.036 4.108 7.978 3.737 4.899 2.794 7.032 6.299 2.596 3.404 6.064 6.064

2008 10103110 G3 1.303 3.127 1.458 2.452 3.830 6.217 5.447 4.423 1.986 3.311 1.578 3.006

2008 10103120 G4 1.214 2.763 2.150 3.995 4.512 5.573 5.081 4.916 1.773 2.385 1.733 2.971

2008 10103210 G5 2.617 716 2.720 2.451 2.534 2.796 2.764 2.965 1.977 1.538 1.556 1.786

2008 10103310 G6 2.082 1.087 2.427 3.423 2.968 3.598 2.551 3.641 2.980 1.776 1.476 2.445

2007 10103010 G1 3.018 9.745 6.626 11.511 11.046 6.366 8.624 5.693 1.763 2.427 8.091 6.238

2007 10103020 G2 4.785 3.451 7.659 3.551 4.067 2.320 5.696 5.985 2.103 2.485 5.094 5.216

2007 10103110 G3 1.121 2.721 1.342 2.305 2.796 5.036 4.630 3.185 1.748 2.649 1.168 2.495
2007 10103120 G4 1.105 2.156 1.505 3.276 3.384 4.403 4.878 4.474 1.561 2.099 1.387 2.645

2007 10103210 G5 2.330 674 2.068 1.741 1.774 2.713 2.046 2.461 1.384 1.123 1.276 1.286

2007 10103310 G6 1.853 914 2.039 2.705 2.464 3.347 2.220 2.622 2.116 1.652 1.196 1.932

2006 10103010 G1 2.415 8.966 5.699 10.936 8.837 5.284 7.935 5.124 1.287 2.209 5.988 4.679

2006 10103020 G2 3.781 2.796 6.664 3.090 3.132 1.856 4.899 5.387 2.019 1.988 4.738 4.278

2006 10103110 G3 841 2.313 980 2.167 2.293 4.432 4.029 2.294 1.224 2.199 935 2.246

2006 10103120 G4 929 1.919 1.250 2.851 2.742 3.919 3.903 4.206 1.265 1.554 1.277 2.460

2006 10103210 G5 2.191 493 1.614 1.567 1.704 2.198 1.555 1.723 1.274 989 1.238 1.055

2006 10103310 G6 1.798 851 1.632 2.219 1.750 3.046 2.021 1.862 1.990 1.388 1.077 1.449

2005 10103010 G1 2.295 6.277 5.244 9.624 8.219 3.911 6.825 3.946 1.197 1.856 4.192 4.352

2005 10103020 G2 2.912 2.014 6.465 2.967 2.694 1.782 4.753 5.118 1.737 1.810 3.554 3.851

2005 10103110 G3 791 1.620 824 1.951 1.904 4.167 3.788 1.996 1.163 1.584 795 1.775

2005 10103120 G4 809 1.382 1.150 2.623 2.194 3.724 3.084 3.576 1.038 1.275 1.137 2.264

2005 10103210 G5 1.950 449 1.550 1.317 1.313 1.693 1.431 1.431 1.109 960 954 1.013

2005 10103310 G6 1.277 758 1.551 2.131 1.365 2.285 1.860 1.360 1.453 1.333 830 1.406

2004 10103010 G1 2.135 4.771 4.510 9.047 6.658 2.738 5.392 2.999 1.138 1.652 3.731 3.395

2004 10103020 G2 2.709 1.793 4.591 2.433 2.479 1.711 4.611 4.402 1.442 1.467 2.986 3.312

2004 10103110 G3 760 1.151 759 1.366 1.505 3.709 2.804 1.657 826 1.220 740 1.580

2004 10103120 G4 599 1.272 817 2.414 1.756 3.278 2.375 3.433 935 1.161 819 1.653

2004 10103210 G5 1.755 405 1.333 1.159 1.143 1.609 1.045 1.389 1.032 720 678 770

2004 10103310 G6 1.035 728 1.102 1.982 1.311 1.691 1.544 966 1.366 1.187 623 1.125

2003 10103010 G1 1.623 3.960 4.014 7.238 5.993 2.519 4.745 2.310 877 1.421 2.799 2.852

2003 10103020 G2 2.574 1.686 4.086 2.215 1.835 1.660 3.735 3.522 1.313 1.203 2.628 2.484

2003 10103110 G3 654 1.117 699 1.271 1.189 3.339 2.328 1.177 587 1.050 607 1.185

2003 10103120 G4 456 1.031 646 2.342 1.282 2.951 1.877 3.296 870 964 615 1.158

2003 10103210 G5 1.317 393 1.120 858 1.063 1.288 857 1.209 774 555 631 717
2003 10103310 G6 766 576 838 1.428 1.010 1.438 1.483 841 1.312 986 449 968

2002 10103010 G1 1.234 3.446 3.172 5.719 5.334 2.217 3.986 2.195 746 1.251 2.240 2.282

2002 10103020 G2 1.854 1.400 3.760 1.595 1.322 1.544 3.250 2.924 1.261 1.059 1.840 1.913

2002 10103110 G3 615 1.039 595 1.144 880 2.872 2.119 930 552 924 438 1.079

2002 10103120 G4 415 753 537 2.155 1.180 2.538 1.352 3.132 618 675 456 869

2002 10103210 G5 1.001 276 997 678 1.000 1.070 789 1.040 666 400 600 603

2002 10103310 G6 675 519 646 1.300 748 1.280 1.409 606 1.194 908 414 756

2001 10103010 G1 938 3.205 2.855 4.690 3.894 1.885 3.468 1.669 627 914 1.815 2.054

2001 10103020 G2 1.539 1.204 3.497 1.548 1.098 1.406 2.373 2.252 1.035 1.017 1.546 1.856

2001 10103110 G3 486 936 435 1.064 704 2.097 1.971 661 409 786 368 1.047

2001 10103120 G4 391 648 376 1.746 1.086 2.310 1.001 2.663 439 621 393 800

2001 10103210 G5 731 235 698 536 700 782 632 760 567 352 462 501

2001 10103310 G6 540 395 517 1.209 614 909 1.226 552 860 809 381 704

Ella piensa que una previsin precisa de las ventas le ayudara a planificar sus necesidades de transporte.
Empleando los primeros cuarto aos como datos base para la estimacin, y reservando los del ltimo para
comprobar la precisin de los resultados:

a. Efectuar un anlisis de la demanda, a fin de garantizar la veracidad de la informacin

b. Evaluar el modelo de pronstico que mejor describa el comportamiento de la demanda.
c. Aplicar el modelo seleccionado, para calcular el pronstico de la demanda para el ao 2011