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AROMATICS MARKET REPORT

NORTH AMERICA
March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 SUMMARY
Paraxylene & Upstream Overview
CONTENTS/LINKS Dollars Per Metric Ton
1,200
PRICE FORECAST 2 Weekly History Monthly Forecast
CRUDE AND UPSTREAM 5 1,100

TOLUENE AND XYLENES 7 1,000

BENZENE 10 900
STYRENE 15 800
STYRENE DERIVATIVES 19 700
CYCLOHEXANE 20 600
CUMENE 22
500
PHENOL 24
400
PARAXYLENE 26
PTA 28 300

PET 30 200
Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
ORTHOXYLENE 33 21 28 4 11 18 25 4 11 18 10 10 10 10 10 10
U.S. PRICE PAGE 34 Toluene Blend Value Toluene Spot Nit.
W.E. PRICE PAGE 35 MX Spot PX Spot ~
ASIA PRICE PAGE 36

Client Services Representative The recent bearish influence of Asia on the U.S. BTX markets has been on
Stephanie Kirby - Aromatics a collision course with the seasonal support provided as domestic gasoline
SKirby@cmaiglobal.com prices appreciate. In March we have seen the first minor skirmishes and
1-(281)752-3258
Mollie Pampell - Aromatics thus far (and not unexpectedly) U.S. gasoline has arguably prevailed. Mar-
MPampell@cmaiglobal.com gins over gasoline have predictably been squeezed and BTX prices are now
1-(281)752-3260
on a more normal upward course. Despite domestic support, the track re-
INTERNET ACCESS mains somewhat subdued as the derivative export markets lack the whole-
www.cmaiglobal.com
email - AMR@CMAIglobal.com sale confidence necessary to sustain the cost-push and regain some mar-
gin. High domestic olefins prices are also making the job of exporting
CONSULTANTS
derivatives much more challenging but there are signs that prices may be
Mark A. Fisler
Mfisler@cmaiglobal.com
moderating slightly which should provide support some pick up in rates.
Toluene/Mixed Xylenes
R. Chase Willett
Cwillett@cmaiglobal.com Benzene & Derivatives Overview
Paraxylene/Terephthalates/ Dollars Per Metric Ton
2,000
Polyester/Orthoxylene
1,800
Marc Laughlin 1,600
Mlaughlin@cmaiglobal.com
1,400
Cumene/Phenol/Acetone
1,200
Simon Palmer
Spalmer@cmaiglobal.com 1,000
Benzene/Toluene/Mixed Xylenes 800

Peter Feng 600

Pfeng@cmaiglobal.com 400
Styrene 200
Weekly History Monthly Forecast
0
Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
21 28 4 11 18 25 4 11 18 10 10 10 10 10 10
Benzene Spot Cumene Formula Phenol Wtd. Avg. Styrene Spot
©Copyright CMAI 2010
~
All Rights Reserved
ThisThis report
report is the
is for for exclusive
the exclusive use
use of theofclient
the client company.
company. Distribution
Distribution outsideoutside
of the of the company
client client company is
is strictly
strictly prohibited without the prior written consent of Chemical Market Associates,
prohibited without the prior written consent of Chemical Market Associates, Inc. (CMAI). Inc. (CMAI).
The prices presented herein are strictly the opinion of CMAI and are based on information collected within the public
sector and on assessments by CMAI staff. CMAI MAKES NO GUARANTEE OR WARRANTY AND ASSUMES
NO LIABILITY AS TO THEIR USE.
North America Aromatics Market Report PRICE FORECAST

Current Prices
Assumptions
WTI Naphtha Natural Gas North America Exchange Rate United States
Crude Oil spot average Gasoline Spot Average Toluene
$/bbl Cts/Gal $/MMBTU Cts/Gal Cts/Gal $/€ Cts/Gal
Notes FOB USGC Deliv. USGC Premium FOB USGC Regular FOB USGC blend value

09 Nov 78.0 187.2 4.4 200.0 193.0 1.49 228.2


Dec 74.5 188.4 4.6 195.4 189.3 1.46 218.2
10 Jan 78.3 197.9 5.9 207.7 201.6 1.43 231.0
Feb 76.5 193.2 5.4 202.2 196.9 1.38 224.7
Mar 81.0 208.2 4.9 224.0 213.2 1.36 255.4

09 Q2 59.5 153.0 3.5 179.2 167.2 1.36 210.8


Q3 68.2 170.1 3.4 189.0 181.0 1.43 214.4
Q4 76.2 185.5 4.3 198.2 190.6 1.48 226.4
10 Q1 78.6 199.8 5.4 211.3 203.9 1.39 237.0

benzene Toluene Mixed xylenes


US W Europe NEA US W Europe NEA U.S. W Europe NEA
Contract Spot Contract Spot Spot Spot Spot Spot Spot Spot Spot
Cts/Gal Cts/Gal €/t $/t $/t Cts/Gal $/t $/t Cts/Gal $/t $/t
Notes FOB USGC FOB USGC Monthly FOB/CIF WE FOB/CIF WE FOB S. KOREA Nitration Nitration FOB S. KOREA FOB Houston, TX FOB Rotterdam FOB S. KOREA

09 Nov 285.0 286.8 547.0 831.0 861.8 254.7 773.0 806.6 256.9 781.0 846.3
Dec 298.0 322.5 570.0 953.0 960.2 272.5 814.0 873.7 283.0 830.0 896.5
10 Jan 355.0 373.5 759.0 1091.8 1040.6 290.2 880.6 930.7 303.8 878.0 943.8
Feb 369.0 352.3 723.0 1007.0 945.0 273.2 844.0 862.2 277.1 860.0 861.9
Mar 343.0 329.0 741.0 995.0 890.0 276.0 822.0 843.0 285.0 831.0 869.7

09 Q2 197.7 226.8 448.3 687.1 661.6 214.5 642.3 660.7 226.6 743.7 750.5
Q3 312.0 313.9 658.7 895.0 815.1 250.1 751.3 768.0 245.8 813.0 813.1
Q4 281.0 294.4 540.7 870.7 860.8 258.0 777.3 805.5 258.9 783.7 835.7
10 Q1 355.7 351.6 741.0 1031.3 958.5 279.8 848.9 878.6 288.6 856.3 891.8

Cyclohexane Cumene Phenol Styrene Polystyrene


US US US US US
Contract Delta Monthly Monthly Contract Net Industry Avg Spot Contract Spot
Cts/Gal Cts/Gal Cts/Lb Cts/Lb Cts/Lb Cts/Lb Cts/Lb Cts/Lb Cts/Lb
Notes FOB USGC to Benzene Formula Avg Acq. FOB US FOB USGC High Heat High Heat

09 Nov 273.6 -11.4 43.01 48.12 54.50 46.56 45.25 99.00 61.75
Dec 285.5 -12.5 46.50 50.03 58.75 50.68 51.34 99.00 63.00
10 Jan 339.7 -15.3 51.77 59.05 67.00 59.15 59.00 106.50 71.00
Feb 348.6 -20.4 55.39 60.96 68.25 60.71 59.19 114.00 78.00
Mar 324.0 -19.0 52.70 60.96 68.25 60.69 59.11 113.00 76.00

09 Q2 197.2 -0.4 29.49 36.15 46.33 37.47 39.42 85.33 52.32


Q3 291.1 -20.9 45.56 51.49 56.42 48.48 48.58 97.33 61.80
Q4 269.6 -11.4 43.76 47.58 55.33 47.27 47.05 98.00 61.52
10 Q1 337.4 -18.2 53.29 59.28 67.83 60.18 59.10 111.17 75.00

Paraxylene PTA DMT PET Orthoxylene PAN


US W Europe NEA US US US US US
Contract Spot Spot Spot Contract Contract Contract Avg. Contract Spot Contract
Cts/lb Cts/lb $/t $/t Cts/lb Cts/lb Cts/lb Cts/lb Cts/lb Cts/lb
Notes Delivered FOB USGC Delivered C&F / NE Asia Formula Delivered Delivered Monthly FOB US FOB Frt Eq

09 Nov 47.25 42.72 933.0 1005.0 44.17 48.51 73.75 42.00 0.00 49.50
Dec 52.25 48.72 1031.0 1105.0 47.52 51.77 76.75 44.00 0.00 54.00
Jan 53.75 46.68 1063.0 1135.0 48.82 53.33 79.75 48.00 0.00 56.00
10 Feb 52.00 45.10 1004.0 1100.0 47.65 52.33 81.25 47.00 0.00 60.00
Mar 50.50 44.53 1000.0 1065.0 46.65 51.44 81.25 47.00 0.00 59.00

09 Q2 47.83 45.09 949.0 1005.0 44.06 45.70 73.00 37.50 0.00 47.17
Q3 49.83 43.73 918.7 1058.3 45.47 47.92 76.58 40.00 0.00 51.83
Q4 47.08 43.15 931.3 998.3 44.05 48.44 74.50 41.17 0.00 51.83
10 Q1 52.08 45.44 1022.3 1100.0 47.71 52.37 80.75 47.33 0.00 58.33

General Notes: see page 4 unsettled The decision to publish or not to publish is solely at the discretion of CMAI staff.

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 2


North America Aromatics Market Report PRICE FORECAST

United States Price Forecast - benzene and Derivatives


Assumptions
Crude Oil Naphtha Natural Gas Gasoline Toluene Blend Value Exchange Rates
$/bbl $/bbl Cts/Gal $/MMBTU Cts/Gal Cts/Gal Cts/Gal $/€
Notes WTI Dubai Spot Avg.FOB USGC Deliv. USGC Premium FOB USGC Regular FOB USGC

10 Q1 78.6 75.7 199.8 5.4 211.3 203.9 237.0 1.390


Q2 79.2 76.4 198.6 4.4 223.8 211.3 257.0 1.364
Q3 79.2 75.9 195.9 4.2 214.4 205.7 241.4 1.364
Q4 78.9 75.4 192.4 4.8 202.8 197.7 225.8 1.319
11 Q1 79.3 76.0 190.1 5.4 207.4 199.9 234.3 1.289
Q2 80.2 77.0 186.4 5.5 217.2 204.9 249.5 1.277
2008 99.5 93.4 238.6 9.0 260.4 248.7 296.7 1.464
2009 61.7 61.7 156.0 4.0 174.7 165.1 203.2 1.390
2010 79.0 75.9 196.7 4.7 213.1 204.7 240.3 1.359
2011 80.4 77.0 190.8 5.5 211.2 202.7 238.5 1.271

benzene HDA Pygas Toluene Cyclohexane Phenol


Contract Spot Cash Cost Cash Cost Cash Cost Spot Contract Hydrogen Avg. Acq. Cash Cost
Cts/Gal Cts/Gal Cts/Gal Cts/Gal Cts/Gal Cts/Gal Cts/Gal $/t Cts/lb Cts/lb
Notes FOB USGC FOB USGC 6 7 8 Nitration Formula 9 10

10 Apr 332.0 337.0 378.6 311.2 298.6 283.0 301.6 1082.5 56.13 49.46
May 340.0 343.0 380.1 313.4 294.5 285.0 309.5 1064.1 57.22 50.62
Jun 345.0 342.0 372.6 312.3 286.2 285.0 313.4 1055.0 57.89 51.61
Jul 340.0 333.0 361.7 310.8 271.9 281.0 315.9 1018.3 57.21 51.01
Aug 330.0 324.0 342.8 295.2 260.1 275.0 305.1 1009.1 55.89 49.91
Sep 321.0 324.0 337.8 290.6 252.8 272.0 300.7 999.9 54.70 48.83
2008 357.3 345.1 369.5 363.6 296.3 307.2 351.8 1738.2 64.15 57.13
2009 228.1 240.0 268.1 257.9 153.6 220.8 224.3 826.5 40.44 34.45
2010 334.8 332.4 352.1 297.3 276.3 276.8 312.3 1056.1 56.61 50.53
2011 320.2 319.8 342.5 297.1 268.3 269.6 306.8 1193.8 56.32 50.06

Mixed xylenes Styrene Polystyrene


Contract Spot Cash Cost Contract Spot Cash Cost Contract Spot Cash Cost
Cts/Gal Cts/Gal Cts/Gal Cts/lb Cts/lb Cts/lb Cts/lb Cts/lb Cts/lb
Notes FOB Houston, TX FOB USGC 11 FOB USGC FOB USGC 12 High Heat High Heat 13

10 Apr 281.0 291.0 269.7 65.00 56.21 53.78 108.00 72.00 65.81
May 287.0 292.0 272.9 64.00 55.93 53.50 107.00 71.00 65.79
Jun 288.0 287.0 272.9 63.00 55.20 52.77 84.00 67.00 64.81
Jul 283.0 277.0 266.3 62.00 54.00 51.29 83.00 66.00 63.83
Aug 273.0 279.0 254.0 61.00 53.00 49.96 82.00 65.00 62.85
Sep 275.0 286.0 246.7 61.00 53.00 50.25 82.00 65.00 62.84
2008 303.5 311.9 319.6 73.15 63.24 59.81 108.63 79.30 73.62
2009 221.0 231.2 217.0 49.63 41.47 36.81 89.67 55.37 49.62
2010 278.3 283.0 255.3 63.79 55.55 52.96 93.96 69.25 65.30
2011 275.3 278.7 255.0 62.00 53.42 51.10 83.50 66.42 64.17

General Notes: see page 4 The decision to publish or not to publish is solely at the discretion of CMAI staff.
March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 3
North America Aromatics Market Report PRICE FORECAST

United States Price Forecast - xylenes and Derivatives


Assumptions
Crude Oil Naphtha Natural Gas Gasoline Toluene Blend Value Exchange Rates
$/bbl $/bbl Cts/Gal $/MMBTU Cts/Gal Cts/Gal Cts/Gal $/€
Notes WTI Dubai Spot Avg. FOB USGC Deliv. USGC Premium FOB USGC Regular FOB USGC Based on 91 and 95 RON gasoline
10 Q1 78.6 75.7 199.8 5.4 211.3 203.9 237.0 1.390
Q2 79.2 76.4 198.6 4.4 223.8 211.3 257.0 1.364
Q3 79.2 75.9 195.9 4.2 214.4 205.7 241.4 1.364
Q4 78.9 75.4 192.4 4.8 202.8 197.7 225.8 1.319
11 Q1 79.3 76.0 190.1 5.4 207.4 199.9 234.3 1.289
Q2 80.2 77.0 186.4 5.5 217.2 204.9 249.5 1.277
2008 99.5 93.4 238.6 9.0 260.4 248.7 296.7 1.464
2009 61.7 61.7 156.0 4.0 174.7 165.1 203.2 1.390
2010 79.0 75.9 196.7 4.7 213.1 204.7 240.3 1.359
2011 80.4 77.0 190.8 5.5 211.2 202.7 238.5 1.271

Mixed xylenes Paraxylene PTA PET Orthoxylene MEg


Contract Margin Contract Margin Contract Cash Cost Contract Cash Cost Contract Delta Contract Margin
Cts/Gal Cts/Gal Cts/lb Cts/lb Cts/lb Cts/lb Cts/lb Cts/lb Cts/lb Cts/lb Cts/lb Cts/lb
Notes FOB Houston, TX 11 14 FOB OXE/Mkt xylenes

10 Apr 281.0 16.8 52.00 0.31 47.98 39.78 82.75 63.66 48.00 9.22 48.53 13.53
May 287.0 19.6 54.25 1.43 49.49 41.10 80.75 62.97 48.50 8.89 40.37 9.15
Jun 288.0 20.5 56.50 3.35 51.00 42.40 80.50 62.93 49.00 9.25 37.19 7.33
Jul 283.0 22.1 54.00 1.84 49.32 40.82 77.75 60.68 48.00 8.94 33.57 8.21
Aug 273.0 24.4 52.00 1.58 47.98 39.58 76.25 59.60 47.00 9.32 33.57 8.44
Sep 275.0 33.6 49.50 -1.08 46.31 38.04 75.00 58.29 47.00 9.05 34.47 7.29
2008 303.5 -8.2 57.88 0.56 52.70 45.58 87.23 73.63 51.13 9.24 53.34 19.76
2009 221.0 9.3 45.83 3.14 43.11 35.74 72.81 55.75 37.92 7.42 31.68 11.41
2010 278.3 28.6 52.02 0.63 47.92 39.87 78.27 61.40 47.42 9.02 39.12 9.62
2011 275.3 26.5 52.92 1.29 48.61 40.94 76.63 61.67 47.04 9.04 35.91 9.01

General Notes:
1. All contract prices are on a delivered basis before discounts.
2. CMAI does not normally publish contract prices when discussions are actively in progress.
3. Prices relate to North American markets.
4. Since Q1 2006, the OX quarterly price is the average of the three monthly prices.
5. Highlighted prices indicate those that have not yet settled as of the time of writing and are therefore subject to change.
6. HDA Cash Cost with Toluene at Chemical
7. HDA Cash Cost with Toluene at Blend Value
8. Pygas cash costs with Raffinate at Market.
9. Cash cost of hydrogen production based on steam reforming of natural gas.
10. Phenol cash cost is based on non-integrated business.
11. Mixed Xylenes cash cost calculated on extraction basis.
12. Styrene cash cost based on conventional EB / SM technology
13. Polystyrene Cash Cost is for High Heat Crystal on a delivered basis.
14. Paraxylene margin is on a pre-tax, nonintegrated basis
15. MEG margin is for fibre grade, contract sales on an non-integrated basis
16. Margins are on a cash cost before tax basis

These price forecasts are stricly the opinion of the staff of CMAI, and are based on information in the public sector.
CMAI makes no warantee or guarantee as to their use. CMAI does not normally publish price forecasts when discussions
are in progress. The decision to publish or not to publish is solely at the discretion of CMAI personnel.

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 4


North America Aromatics Market Report CRUDE AND UPSTREAM
North America
NYMEX CRUDE OIL 18-Feb-10 25-Feb-10 4-Mar-10 11-Mar-10 18-Mar-10
Current Month $/bbl 77.39 79.68 80.84 82.00 82.29
cts/gal 184.27 189.72 192.48 195.24 195.93
US$/MT 530.22 545.91 553.86 561.81 563.80

U.S. Crude and Crack Spreads NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Strip
Cents Per Gallon Dollars Per Barrel
450 86
Forecast Sources: Energy Information Administration (EIA), Purvin & Gertz
400 84
350 82
300 80

250 78

200 76

150 74

100 72

50 70
February-10 June-10 October-10 February-11
0
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 CMAI Forecast
March Contract Expiration
Source: Purvin & Gertz WTI 3/2/1 Crack ~ February Contract Expiration ~

Week-Ending Crude Oil Stocks U.S. Refinery Throughput


-000,000- Barrels For Week Ending: March 12, 2010 -000,000- Barrels Per Day
385 17

365 16

345 15

325
14
305
13
285
12
265
For Week Ending: March 12, 2010
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) 11
245
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
5-Year Range 2008 2009 2010
Five-Year Range 2008 2009 2010 ~ Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) ~

North America
NAPHTHA February Average March Average REFORMATE February Average March Average
Price US$/MT 685.96 739.26 Price US$/MT 739.35 802.00
Delta US$/MT + 53.30 (+7.77%) Delta US$/MT + 62.65 (+8.47%)

USGC Naphtha and Reformate Differentials U.S. Naphtha Cracking Margins


Cents Per Gallon Cents Per Pound
125 30
Forecast Forecast
25
100
20

15
75
10

50 5

0
25
-5

-10
0
-15

-25 -20
Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2008 Jul-2008 Jan-2009 Jul-2009 Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011

Naphtha over WTI Crude 100 RON Reformate over Naphtha Ethylene Margin from Naphtha Naphtha Delta to Unleaded Regular

Source: Purvin & Gertz; CMAI ~ Source: Purvin & Gertz; CMAI ~

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 5


North America Aromatics Market Report CRUDE AND UPSTREAM
North America
GASOLINE 18-Feb-10 25-Feb-10 4-Mar-10 11-Mar-10 18-Mar-10
Reg. Unleaded cts/gal 192.87 206.95 206.56 216.02 215.56
US$/MT 684.68 734.65 733.27 766.89 765.24
Prem. Unleaded cts/gal 197.28 212.06 218.21 226.22 225.68
US$/MT 692.44 744.31 765.90 794.05 792.12

U.S. Crude and Gasoline Prices Implied Demand, U.S. ~


Dollars Per Barrel Cents Per Gallon -000,000- Barrels Refined Products -000,000- Barrels
Per Day (Distillate)
100 238 Per Day (Gasoline)
Forecast 10.0 6.5
95 226

90 214 9.5 6.0

85 202
9.0 5.5
80 190

75 179 8.5 5.0

70 WTI Crude Oil RUL Gasoline 167


8.0 4.5
PUL Gasoline
65 155
Source: Purvin and Gertz 7.5 4.0
60 143
Sep-2009 Dec-2009 Mar-2010 Jun-2010 Sep-2010
7.0 3.5
15 36

12 29 6.5 3.0
9 21 For Week Ending: March 12, 2010
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
6 14 6.0 2.5
3 7 January April July October
0 0 Gasoline, 5-Year Range Distillate, 5-Year Range
RUL Gasoline to WTI Crude Oil Spread
~ Gasoline, 2009 Gasoline, 2010
PUL Gasoline to RUL Gasoline Spread
Distillate, 2009 Distillate, 2010

U.S. Daily Gasoline Price History 2005-2010 U.S. Motor Gasoline Production
Cents Per Gallon (Four-Week Moving Average)
440 -000,000- Barrels Per Day For Week Ending: March 12, 2010
9.5
400 NYMEX USGC CASH

360
9.0
320

280
8.5
240

200
8.0
160

120 Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)


7.5
80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10
~ Five-Year Range 2008 2009 2010 ~

USGC Naphtha to BTX Spreads U.S. Motor Gasoline Inventory


Cents Per Gallon -000,000- Barrels For Week Ending: March 12, 2010
340
Forecast 245
320
235
300
280 225
260
215
240
220 205

200 195
180
185
160
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
140 175
Sep-2009 Dec-2009 Mar-2010 Jun-2010 Sep-2010 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Naphtha Prices Reformate Prices
Weight-Average BTX Prices ~ Five-Year Range 2008 2009 2010 ~

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 6


North America Aromatics Market Report TOLUENE AND XYLENES
North America
SPOT TOLUENE 18-Feb-10 25-Feb-10 4-Mar-10 11-Mar-10 18-Mar-10
Current Month cts/gal 269.63 - 274.00 277.80 - 284.30 n 273.20 - 276.30 269.90 - 273.40 273.00 - 276.00
March US$/MT 818.8 - 832.0 843.6 - 863.3 n 829.6 - 839.0 819.6 - 830.2 829.0 - 838.1
Following Month cts/gal - - 274.50 - 279.40 272.00 - 275.50 274.20 - 277.50
April US$/MT 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 - 0.0 833.6 - 848.4 826.0 - 836.6 832.6 - 842.7
SPOT MIXED XYLENE
Current Month cts/gal 271.00 - 278.63 279.20 - 284.30 271.00 - 275.90 270.80 - 273.60 272.90 - 277.10
March US$/MT 824.5 - 847.7 849.5 - 865.0 824.5 - 839.4 823.9 - 832.4 830.3 - 843.1
Following Month cts/gal - - 271.90 - 277.30 n 273.50 - 273.50 275.00 - 278.90
April US$/MT - - 827.3 - 843.7 n 832.1 - 832.1 836.7 - 848.6

Toluene Regional Pricing 2007-2010 U.S. Gulf Coast Mixed Xylene Daily Pricing Versus
U.S. Dollars Per Metric Ton
MOGAS Blend Value 2008-2010
Cents Per Gallon
1300 520
1200 480

1100 440
400
1000
360
900
320
800
280
700 240
600 200

500 160

400 120
80
300
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10

USG WEP NEA ~ MXY Spot MXY CP MX Blend Value ~

USGC Spot Toluene and Mixed Xylenes North America Toluene and Mixed Xylene Production
Volumes, 2009-2010 Capacity Losses 2010
-000- Barrels
1600 14%
* Volumes for March are on a month-to-date basis.
1400 12%

1200
10%
1000
8%
800

600 6%

400
4%
200
2%
0
M-09 A-09 M-09 J-09 J-09 A-09 S-09 O-09 N-09 D-09 J-10 F-10 M-10
0%
Toluene, Nitration-Grade Toluene, Commercial-Grade Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mixed Xylenes, Spot ~ TOL MXY ~

PRICES AND SPREADS

• Seasonal trends have begun to take shape in toluene and xylenes markets over the course of March. While prices
stagnated for most this month, energy surged ahead, with WTI crude oil gaining six percent so far on February
prices and RBOB gasoline prices gaining thirteen percent. This has had the effect of considerably redcucing the
margins that producers had from extracting aromatics out of reformate. As prices for gasoline have increased,
blend values for aromatics have gone up noticeably, though, trending very seasonally. CMAI’s Benchmark
Toluene Blend Value price has matched gasoline’s increase of thirteen percent month-to-date.

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 7


North America Aromatics Market Report TOLUENE AND XYLENES
Toluene Spread over Octane STDP Economics - Alternative Toluene Values
Cents Per Gallon (Prices) Cents Per Gallon (Margins)
Cents Per Gallon (Prices) Cents Per Gallon (Delta)
360 72
350 140
300 120 300 60

250 100 240 48


200 80
180 36
150 60
120 24
100 40
50 20 60 12

0 0 0 0
-50 -20 -60 -12
3/5/2009 5/14/2009 7/23/2009 10/1/2009 12/10/2009 2/18/2010 10/15/2009 11/12/2009 12/10/2009 1/7/2010 2/4/2010 3/4/2010
Delta Toluene Spot Price
Toluene, Spot, FOB USGC Alternative Toluene Value (STDP)
Toluene, Octane ~ STDP Margin ~

SUPPLY/DEMAND ECONOMICS AND


Mixed Xylenes Spreads Between the
SPOT MARKETS Dollars Per Metric Ton U.S. and Asia
1,400 140

• On the supply side, turnaround season for many aro- 1,200 120
1,000 100
matics producers looks to be windling down as the 800 80
amount of downed capacity as compared to February 600 60
is off significantly. While the potential for more output 400 40

is there, production levels really haven’t increased to 200 20


0 0
a great extent. Reforming margins are still well in the -200 -20
red, as octane is still considerably undervalued the -400 -40
3/5/2009 5/14/2009 7/23/2009 10/1/2009 12/10/2009 2/18/2010
relative to its cost. As well, the light-end byproducts
coming off of the reformer, such as hydrogen and
Delta
Mixed Xylenes, Spot, FOB USGC
fuel gas, are decreasing in value as natural gas prices Mixed Xylenes, Spot, FOB SKOR ~
come off. Even with restrained volumes coming out
of reformers, demand seems to be low enough for prices suppressed. As mentioned earlier, spreads between
spot toluene prices and blend value have tightened to lows not seen since last June. This is due in part to ben-
zene and mixed xylene price movements, which have shown weakness for the better part of the month and have
subsequently hit toluene conversion margins quite hard.

• Xylenes present much the same picture; while potential supply sources seem to be up from February, operat-
ing rates have corrected downward in response as overall demand does not seem to be pushing prices upward.
While increasing so far in March, spot paraxylene prices are really only keeping up with the increases in naphtha
prices. Current xylenes-to-paraxylene spreads March have increased to over $150 per ton from lower levels in
late February / early March; however, spreads from naphtha-to-xylenes have tightened to around $75 per ton.

U.S. Toluene Trade U.S. Mixed Xylenes Trade


Thousand Metric Tons January 2008 - January 2010 Dollars Per Metric Ton Thousand Metric Tons January 2008 - January 2010 Dollars Per Metric Ton
120 200 160 400
Exports Exports
90 150 140 350

120 300
60 100
100 250
30 50
80 200

0 0 60 150

40 100
-30 -50
20 50
-60 -100
0 0

-90 -150 -20 -50


Imports Imports
-40 -100
-120 -200
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10
Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10

Other W. Europe Asia Delta: Asia Spot - U.S. Spot Other W. Europe Asia Delta: Asia Spot - U.S. Contract
~ ~

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 8


North America Aromatics Market Report TOLUENE AND XYLENES
2010 North America Toluene Operating Schedule
(000 Metric Tons) Annual Capacity
Capacity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
North American Capacity 7,584 644 582 644 623 644 623 644 644 623 644 623 644
North American Capacity Lost 238 44 23 29 19 33 12 13 15 12 13 12 13
North American Capacity Lost: Others/Estimates 58 - 52 5 1 - - - - - - - -
North American % Capacity Lost 4% 7% 13% 5% 3% 5% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

2010 North America Mixed Xylenes Operating Schedule


(000 Metric Tons)
Capacity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
North American Capacity 10,641 904 816 904 875 904 875 904 904 875 904 875 904
North American Capacity Lost 356 58 22 84 20 36 17 18 18 17 24 25 18
North American % Capacity Lost 8.6% 8% 13% 10% 8% 10% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8%

• On the subject of trade, anticipating higher prices as


Paraxylene Spreads to Mixed Xylenes
gasoline season commences in the U.S, Asian buyers Dollars Per Metric Ton and Naphtha
were out in full-force in January. Even though prices 1,200

were level at times between the U.S. and Asia, volumes 1,000
on the order of 100 kT of material moved from the 800
U.S. to Asia. This pattern of trade, with large volumes
600
moving despite low price discrepancies between the
regions, could catch on in the early months of the year 400

as gasoline continues to increase and xylenes prices are 200

relatively cheap. 0
3/5/2009 5/14/2009 7/23/2009 10/1/2009 12/10/2009 2/18/2010
Xylenes Spread over Naphtha Paraxylene Spread over Xylenes
PRICE FORECAST Naphtha Mixed Xylenes, Spot
Paraxylene, Spot
~
• With the arrival of gasoline season, traditional rela-
tionships to energy are beginning to become more pronounced. While both toluene and xylenes prices look to
appreciate on the back of gasoline, spreads to naphtha and gasoline will remain at compressed levels throughout
the better part of the summer months. Xylenes should hold a small premium to toluene prices in the near months
as material continues to move to Asia.

U.S. Toluene and Mixed Xylenes U.S. Toluene and Mixed Xylenes Spreads,
Cents Per Gallon Price Forecast Forecast Period
Cents Per Gallon
450
100
Forecast Source: Purvin & Gertz; CMAI
90 Forecast
400
80
350 70
60
300
50
250 40
30
200
20
150 10
0
100 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011
50
UL Regular over UL Premium
100RON Reformate over UL Premium
T/X Blend Value over Reformate
0
Blend Value
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Toluene over T/X Blend Value
Toluene Nitration Spot Mixed Xylenes Contract ~ Mixed Xylenes over T/X Blend Value ~

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 9


North America Aromatics Market Report BENZENE
North America
SPOT BENZENE 18-Feb-10 25-Feb-10 4-Mar-10 11-Mar-10 18-Mar-10
Current Month cts/gal 331.50 - 342.88 339.70 - 348.40 322.20 - 329.70 321.90 - 326.00 326.40 - 327.60
March US$/MT 992.3 - 1026.4 1016.8 - 1042.9 964.5 - 986.9 963.6 - 975.8 977.0 - 980.6
Following Month cts/gal - - 312.20 - 315.60 313.00 - 317.70 323.60 - 326.70
April US$/MT - - 934.5 - 944.7 936.9 - 951.0 968.6 - 977.9
n = notional posting
Market Summary
Benzene & BTX Mix Pricing,
Prices Recent History
Cents Per Gallon
500
• The benzene contract price for March settled at 450

$3.43 per gallon ($1027 per metric ton) a de- 400

crease of $0.26 per gallon ($78 per metric ton). 350

After reaching a short term peak in February


300
250
2010, the contract benzene price has been back- 200
wardated, suggesting a lower April contract price 150
settlement. It was poised to reach a short term 100
bottom in April but a recent spike in benzene 50
prices in Europe may derail this forecast. The 0

combination of a relatively strong crude price, Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010

low inventories and seasonal improvement in Source: CMAI BTX Mix Value Benzene over BTX Mix ~

demand may keep benzene prices from falling


much anyways. Benzene Spread Over Naphtha, Recent
Cents Per Gallon
History
Margins and Incentives 300

• The benzene/naphtha differential has improved 250

this year as benzene prices have pushed upwards 200


beyond the increase in naphtha. In the short 150
term, production outages will drive supply but
100
eventually improved incentives should result in
increased benzene production in other parts of 50
the world. Indeed the spread may grow even 0
more in the short term as naphtha appears to be
-50
weakening while benzene is strengthening.
Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

Source: Purvin & Gertz; CMAI ~


Spot Market
USGC Spot Benzene Volumes 2009-2010
• The character of the spot market has changed
significantly from the beginning of the month. At
Millions Of Barrels
3.5

that time, arriving imports and weak derivative


demand depressed the market and spot prices fell
3.0

into the low $3.00 range. Inventories were pulled 2.5

down in anticipation of lower prices. Recently a


2.0
spike in Europe has caused spot prices to move
steadily higher. Spot benzene prices are trad- 1.5

ing at near parity to the March contract price.


1.0
Operational events tend to be short lived but the
proximity to the end of the month may impact 0.5

the April contract price settlement.


0.0
J-09 F-09 M-09 A-09 M-09 J-09 J-09 A-09 S-09 O-09 N-09 D-09 J-10 F-10

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 10


North America Aromatics Market Report BENZENE
2010 North America Benzene Operating Schedule
(000 Metric Tons) Annual Capacity
Capacity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
North American Capacity 10,241 870 786 870 842 870 842 870 870 842 870 842 870
North American Capacity Lost 612 101 78 73 51 49 44 37 37 35 37 35 37
North American Capacity Lost: Others/Estimates 507 55 99 63 32 33 32 33 33 32 33 32 33
North American % Capacity Lost 11% 18% 23% 16% 10% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

Supply Outlook
U.S. Benzene Production Outlook
Million Metric Tons
Feedstocks and Costs 2.0
1.8
• Crude oil futures are currently near $82 per 1.6

barrel and close to the top of the trading range. 1.4


1.2
This has remained fairly constant since last 1.0
month but in North America, refinery op- 0.8
erations remain low and the flattened forward 0.6
curve has market participants pulling in float- 0.4

ing stocks of crude oil. On the other hand, we 0.2


0.0
will begin the transition into driving season Q1-08 Q3-08 Q1-09 Q3-09 Q1-10 Q3-10 Q1-11 Q3-11
and the outlook for an economic recovery is
bullish however we do not believe the global Reformate Pygas THDA TDP PXE Coke Oven ~
economic markets are strong enough for crude
oil to break out of the trading range to new
highs. U.S. Benzene Imports, Recent History
Thousand Metric Tons Dollars Per Metric Ton
350 200
Operations
300 100

• Public filings confirm the expected return of 250 0


the CCR and aromatics recovery operations
at Flint Hills Resources West Plant in Corpus 200 -100

Christi, TX following the recent maintenance 150 -200


turnaround. There was a slight delay affect-
ing the MSTDP but this seems to have been 100 -300

overcome. On the steam crackers, operations 50 -400

remain restrained by both scheduled mainte-


nance and unplanned interruptions. Olefins 0
Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09
-500

supply remains constrained although there has Other W. Europe Asia Delta: Asia Spot - U.S. Contract
~
been some relaxation in spot prices, at least on
ethylene. Pygas make remains a mix of slightly heavier feed slates but with the aforementioned operational
constraints. Pygas off-take for extraction has been nice and steady.

Imports

• The long supply chain from Asia continues drive volatility. Beginning in the month, the long shadow of continued
imports arriving from Asia, caused spot prices to fall but just recently a spike in European benzene prices has
pulled the North American spot prices up. With the incremental benzene supply in Asia, relief is a long ways
away and now more imports are needed, not less. History suggests that operational issues do not last long and
market participants are wary that imports will arrive as supply improves.

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 11


North America Aromatics Market Report BENZENE
March 2010 U.S. bENZENE AND MAJOR DERIvATIvES
* Includes listed and balance of dom. dmd. bENZENE Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10
Total demand includes exports. Million Gallons Styrene Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10
All products in million pounds except benzene. Production 419 367 377
Imports 95 137 138 Production 2057 2156 2087
Domestic Demand * 500 520 514 NMPLT. Op. Rate 75% 77% 74%
Inventory 126 110 109 Imports 325 300 300
Domestic Dmd. * 1637 1766 1667
Cyclohexane Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Cumene Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Exports 745 690 720
Total Demand 2382 2456 2387
Production 553 548 556 Production 1448 1404 1420 Inventory 395 395 395
NMPLT. Op. Rate 66% 65% 65% NMPLT. Op. Rate 60% 58% 58%
Imports 66 66 66 Imports 0 0 0 (PS, EPS, & ABS includes Canada)
Domestic Dmd. * 509 515 523 Domestic Dmd. * 1398 1314 1335 Polystyrene Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10
Exports 110 99 99 Exports 50 90 85
Total Demand 619 615 622 Total Demand 1448 1404 1420 Production 996 1085 992
Inventory 243 243 243 Op. Rate 77% 83% 75%
Total Demand 1027 1131 1023

Adipic Acid Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Phenol Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 EPS Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10

Production 342 343 345 Production 1066 1033 1045 Production 151 181 190
NMPLT. Op. Rate 51% 51% 52% NMPLT. Op. Rate 72% 69% 69% Op. Rate 66% 78% 80%
Total Demand 355 356 358 Total Demand 1067 1035 1046 Total Demand 186 209 211

Caprolactam Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 AbS/SAN/Other Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10


% of benzene dmd. Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10
Production 466 472 478 Styrene 45% 47% 44% Production 411 409 413
NMPLT. Op. Rate 83% 84% 85% Cumene 27% 26% 26% Op. Rate 63% 62% 62%
Total Demand 467 473 479 Cyclohexane 14% 13% 13% Total Demand 502 497 493

Demand Outlook
Cents Per Gallon
U.S. Benzene Netback Values
700
Derivative Operations
600

• Benzene derivative operations weakened in


March but the high price of benzene is not
500

the main culprit this time. The tight ethylene 400

supply demand balance has limited ethylene


300
availability and has pushed ethylene spot prices
to short term highs. This has limited styrene 200 Benzene

production and has pushed benzene back into Contract SM


Spot SM
the market. The propylene situation has not 100
Cumene, Formula
been as severe but propylene prices are also 0
Phenol, Wt Avg

high. The ethylene situation is now rapidly Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10

improving but styrene turnarounds will limit ~


styrene production in April. Operationally,
other than Dow’s force majeure declaration USA Net Exports as Benzene Equivalent
on phenol recently, plants are running well. Thousand Metric Tons
300
Dow’s discovery of a broken heat exchanger
during their turnaround is expected to extend 200
their outage by approximately a month.
100

Netbacks and Demand


0

• A seasonal lift in domestic demand is expected -100


to arrive in parallel with the emergence of
spring across the continent. Construction -200

activities are expected to start but derivative


-300
and downstream producers continue to remain Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09
cautious and are keeping inventories limited. BZE EB/SM CUM/PHL CHX/Int Others ~
The high spot ethylene prices have pushed
March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 12
North America Aromatics Market Report BENZENE
styrene export margins below variable costs
U.S. Benzene Contract Price
and limited export interest in late February Cents Per Gallon
500
and March. Ethylene spot prices have eased Forecast
significantly but the export netback has not 450

improved significantly yet. Phenol domestic 400

demand is very strong and the phenol market 350

remains very tight but it is supply limited. 300

250
Exports 200

150
• Demand for styrene exports dried up in March
100
as the tight ethylene market pushed incremental
50
costs up above the respective netback prices
in Asia and Europe. The Asian New Year 0
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11
holidays understandably slowed demand but ~
hopes were than demand would increase after
the participants returned to work. Instead sup- U.S. Benzene Short-term Price Forecast
ply issues in Europe has increased the netback Build-up
Cents Per Gallon
and demand for imports from the U.S. Styrene 500
is flowing that direction to some degree while
Forecast
450
Dow’s recent force majeure announcement 400
350
in phenol has limited supply and reduced the
material available for export. 300
250
200
Price and Margin Forecast 150
100
Prices 50
0

• For most of the month, the backwardation in the Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011
CRUDE WTI NAPHTHA ULR ULP REF TLN BV BZE
benzene market has pointed towards a lower
Source: Purvin & Gertz; CMAI ~
benzene contract price in April but recently
another run up in European benzene prices has
all about thrown this forecast out the window. U.S. Benzene to Naphtha Short-term Forecast
There is time before the end of the month for Cents Per Gallon
events in Europe to cool but time is rapidly 300
Forecast
running out and there is a real possibility that 250

the April contract price will not be much lower 200


than March now. 150

100
Differentials
50

• The differential between crude and benzene 0

has shrunk over the past few months and was -50

forecasted to continue to shrink. The recent


Jan-2008 Jul-2008 Jan-2009 Jul-2009 Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011
100RON Reformate over Naphtha
run up in spot benzene prices may delay this Toluene Blend Value over Reformate
~
inevitability. Differentials between toluene Source: Purvin & Gertz; CMAI

blend value, reformate, ULP, ULR and naph-


tha are forecasted to become more evenly spread as we enter the gasoline season. Crude oil continues to trade
between $70 to $82 per barrel but is currently at the high end of the range. Reformate differentials has even
improved and is forecasted to have a small differential during the summer.

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 13


North America Aromatics Market Report BENZENE
Margins
• Benzene margins and differentials started out the year at a high water mark. The margins were forecasted to
ease due to a combination of higher crude oil prices and lower benzene prices. With a recent spike in Europe,
benzene prices may not fall and margins would be expected to increase. Toluene conversion margins this year
are vastly improved from the same time last year and on a spot basis the uptick in benzene and mixed xylenes
prices, margins are growing once again. The onset of gasoline season normally provides an uplift in benzene
prices but year by year, this is gradually subsiding. The pull of octane into the gasoline pool has subsided with
the increase in ethanol and this has lowered the cost structure of incremental benzene production.

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March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 14


North America Aromatics Market Report STYRENE
North America
SPOT STYRENE 18-Feb-10 25-Feb-10 4-Mar-10 11-Mar-10 18-Mar-10
Current Month cts/lb 57.50 - 58.50 n 58.50 - 59.00 n 59.00 - 59.00 59.20 - 61.00 58.75 - 59.50 n
March US$/MT 1267.6 - 1289.7 n 1289.7 - 1300.7 n 1300.7 - 1300.7 1305.1 - 1344.8 1295.2 - 1311.7 n
Following Month cts/lb - - 58.50 - 59.00 n 57.50 - 57.75 58.00 - 59.00 n
April US$/MT - - 1289.7 - 1300.7 n 1267.6 - 1273.2 1278.7 - 1300.7 n
n = notional posting

U.S. CONTRACT STYRENE PRICE SETTLEMENTS FOR FEBRUARY


On average, the contract price settled up 1.25 cents per pound, bringing the contract price to a range of 68.25 to
71.50 cents per pound. The net industry average styrene price increased by 1.56 cents per pound to 60.71 cents
per pound. There were no price increase announcements for March.

Pricing/Economics U.S. STYRENE PRICE MOVEMENTS


Low Contract Avg. Spot Net Ind. Avg. Cash Costs Cont. Marg. Spot Avg. Marg. Ind. Avg. Marg.
• General Trend – Prices have peaked and are Cts/Lb Cts/Lb Cts/Lb Cts/Lb Cts/Lb Cts/Lb Cts/Lb
Jan-10 67.0 59.00 59.15 56.4 10.6 2.6 2.7
now heading lower however the decline is Feb-10 68.3 59.19 60.71 59.4 8.9 -0.2 1.3
expected to find support in the mid/upper Mar-10 60.68 57.1
50s unless crude oil prices ease or European Cash costs are estimated for March. Contract does not include discounts and are unsettled.
styrene production improves. The speed of
the decline will be partially dependent on U.S. STYRENE EXPORTS
January Year-to-date (through January) Percent Change
raw material costs easing, especially eth- Exports to: 2010 2008 2009 2010 10 vs 08 10 vs 09
ylene. Spot benzene has already dropped Mexico 124 39 30 124 219% 315%
while spot ethylene has peaked and has South America 72 96 87 72 -25% -18%
eased significantly but it still has a way to West Europe 22 11 60 22 96% -63%
go but we are still in the midst of cracker China
Taiwan 4
11
41
4
4
29
4
11
-90%
150%
0%
-63%
turnarounds. Lower North American costs Asia/Pacific 56 11 0 56 402% 688330%
and higher European prices will open the arb Others 1 2 8 1 -43% -85%

from the US to Europe. In the short term, TOTAL 289 204 218 289 42% 32%
Units: Millions of Pounds Source: U.S. Dept. of Com. & CMAI estimates
spot styrene prices will be set by the higher
of costs or the European net back. ~ Styrene Trade: Arbitrage & Producer Margins
$65
• Cash Costs – North American styrene pro- $59
ducers no longer have the luxury of low
North America West Europe Northeast Asia
costs in early 2010. Despite all of the atten- $ 1,310 $ 1,332 $ 1,249
tion paid to benzene, it is really ethylene that $48 $45
$45 $40
has been driving the market recently. The
tight ethylene market has limited the ability South America Middle East Southeast Asia
of styrene producers to hit their production
$ 1,355 $ 1,209

targets for March. In the meantime, benzene NA to WE Arbitrage $ (26) NA to WE


Producer Margin
$ 39
continues to pile up and spot prices continue NA to NEA $ (119) Spot Price NA to NEA $ (54)

to fall but as ethylene supply improves ben- WE to NEA


WE to NA $ (71) Freight NA to SA $ 65
$ (148) WE to NA $ (8)
zene will rebound. While falling spot ben- SEA to NEA $ - WE to NEA $ (85)
NEA to WE $ 8 March pricing. ME to NEA $ 271
zene prices and rising crude oil prices have Units: -000- Metric Tons; Styrene cash costs are based on typical, conventional EB/SM units; NEA = FOB Korea
caused benzene margins to shrink, ethylene
margins have plumped up. Spot ethylene hit a high in early March but is falling just as quickly. Natural gas
prices have eased as well as heating season is ending. Overall, lower benzene, ethylene and natural gas costs
are forecasted to result in lower April styrene costs.

• Spot Prices – Styrene spot prices have been relatively steady in March. The tight ethylene market has kept
the styrene price from following benzene lower and the lack of demand has kept styrene from moving higher.
The styrene spot market has been limited to co-producers and South America in March. In April, the styrene

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 15


North America Aromatics Market Report STYRENE
2010 Americas Styrene Operating Schedule
(000 Metric Tons)
Capacity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
North American Capacity 5,925 503 455 503 487 503 487 503 503 487 503 487 503
North American Capacity Lost 80 18 - - 33 - - - 29 - - - -
North American % Capacity Lost 1.3% 4% 0% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
South American Capacity 756 64 58 64 62 64 62 64 64 62 64 62 64
South American Capacity Lost - - - - - - - - - - - - -
South American % Capacity Lost 0.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

spot price will be set by the higher of costs and U.S. Styrene Balance
Million Pounds % Operating Rate
the European netback. Spot styrene prices are 3,600 100

forecasted to move lower in April.


2,700 90

• Contract Announcements – For March, pro-


ducers did not nominate any price increases 1,800 80
although the tight ethylene market caused some
to consider it.
900 70

• Margins – Higher costs, a backwardated market


and the lack of export demand have combined to 0
09 Q2 Q3 Q4 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 11 Q2 Q3 Q4
60

squeeze styrene margins. Styrene producers are Net Exports Domestic Demand Oper. Rate (Available)
~
expected to be in slightly better shape in April as
spot ethylene prices ease and the export market begins to reopen. Despite the poor styrene margins, remember
that integrated styrene producers are still making money in the chain.

• Trade: Trade data are now updated through January 2010 and 2010 has started out with extremely strong
exports to Asia. This is pretty impressive when you consider that Dow has permanently shut down the styrene
plant at Freeport, TX and the slow PO demand has restrained SM production from POSM facilities. Volumes
for 2010 are 32 percent higher than in 2009 and 42 percent higher than in 2008. It’s a great start but it is not
expected to hold up.

• Exports to Europe – Exports to Europe have taken a back seat to exports to Asia. Recently, the high North
American ethylene prices have kept North American styrene producers from having a competitive cost structure
so nothing has moved. Planned and unplanned issues in Europe in the near term are expected to open the arb
to Europe but starting in 2010, exports to Europe have been slow. Volumes in 2010 as of January 2010 are 63
percent lower than 2009 but are 96 percent higher than in 2008.

• Exports to Asia – Exports to Asia started the year strong as China was stimulating the economy but as 2010
progressed, China began to start to pull back on some of the stimulus. The market understandably slowed as

Polystyrene Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 U.S. STYRENE & MAJOR DERIVATIVES SBL Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10
Production 996 1085 992 March 2010 Production 206 210 215
Op. Rate 77.4 83.3 75.3 Op. Rate 63.5 64.1 65.0
Total Demand 1027 1131 1023
STYRENE Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 ABS/SAN/Other Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10
EPS Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Production 2057 2156 2087 Production 395 409 419
Production 151 181 190 Nameplate Op. Rate 74.6 77.3 74.0 Op. Rate 78.0 80.7 82.7
Op. Rate 65.6 77.6 80.3 Effective Op. Rate 78.5 82.4 78.6 Total Demand 406 424 445
Total Demand 186 209 211 Imports 325 300 300
Domestic Demand * 1637 1766 1667 SBR Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10
% of Styrene Dom. Demand Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Exports 745 690 720 Production 270 270 279
Polystyrene 59% 60% 58% Total Demand 2382 2456 2387 Op. Rate 46.1 45.6 46.6
EPS 8% 9% 10% Inventory 395 395 395
ABS/SAN/Other 8% 8% 8% Inventory (Days) 14.9 14.6 15.2 UNITS: Million Pounds
SBL 7% 7% 7%
SBR 4% 4% 4% * Includes listed and balance of domestic demand - PS, EPS, & ABS data includes Canada
Exports % of Total Demand 31% 28% 30% - Total demand includes exports (Canada not included in styrene demand) ~

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 16


North America Aromatics Market Report STYRENE

Asia began celebrating Asian New Year but Rundate: 3/19/2010 11:15 AM CMAI Capacity Database

as they have returned back to work, styrene World


prices have dropped and inventories appear STYRENE PRODUCERS BY SHAREHOLDER
plentiful. As of January 2010, 2010 volume 2010 Average Annual Capacities
was 111 percent higher than 2009 volume and SHARE COMMENTS
RANK OWNER % OF TOTAL
2010 was 26 percent higher than 2008 volume. 1 Royal Dutch/Shell 8.64%
February data is expected to be strong as well 2 Access Industries 6.00% Bankruptcy
but March and April are expected to be slow 3 Dow 5.72% Sold
4 BASF SE 5.38% For Sale
for exports to Asia. 5 Total 5.25%
6 Ineos 3.84%
7 Formosa Group 3.84%
• Exports to Mexico – Exports to Mexico are 8 SABIC 3.76%
expected to increase this year but the data 9 SINOPEC 3.39%
10 CNPC 3.14%
shows an unusually large increase in January Totals 48.96%
2010. The increase is quite frankly excessive
and we are interested to see if the February data
~
corrects this situation. Some pre-buying was
seen in the market place but still this seems
excessive. The January 2010 data is 315 per- Rundate: 3/19/2010 11:16 AM CMAI Capacity Database
cent higher than 2009 and 219 percent higher
than in 2008. Dow Chemical Company as Shareholder
STYRENE
• Exports to South America – Although 2010 Average Annual Capacities - Metric Units
started out with strong exports to Asia, we COMPANY LOCATION 2010 OWNERSHIP SALE
Americas Styrenics Donaldsonville, LA USA 499 50.00% Styron
have recently had the arb closed to both Asia Americas Styrenics Donaldsonville, LA USA 454 50.00% Styron
and Europe. During these times, South Ameri- Dow Schkopau GFR 300 100.00% Styron
can exports are the preferred outlet for North Dow Benelux Terneuzen NET 500 100.00% Styron
American exporters. Despite the loss of the Siam Styrene
TKSC
Map Ta Phut, Rayong THA
Shuaiba KUW
300
475
49.99% Not Included In Styron
42.50% Not Included In Styron
South American market to European product TOTAL(S)
for a month, North American producers now Total - STYRENE 2,528
have the market back. As a result, January
2010 has started out slow and is 18 percent
~
lower than 2009 and 25 percent lower than
2008.

Market Analysis – Sale Of Dow Styron To Bain Capital

• On March 2, Dow announced the signing of a definitive agreement to sell Dow’s Styron Division to an affiliate of
Bain Capital for $1.63 billion. The transaction provides Dow an option to receive up to 15 percent of the equity
of Styron and includes long-term supply, service and purchase agreements. The transaction is expected to close
by August 2010 subject to the completion of the customary conditions and obtaining regulatory approvals.
All CMAI General Warranties and Disclaimers Apply
©2010 CMAI, All Rights Reserved To view visit http://elmo.cmaiglobal.com/default.aspx/Warranty.htm 1 of 1

• The agreement marks the exit of one of the major global styrene producers. BASF has also indicated their desire
to exit the styrenics business and has recently sold off some pieces of the business such as a styrene plant in
Korea and a polystyrene plant in Brazil. BASF has announced that they are working on a potential joint venture
but so far nothing definitive has been announced.

All CMAI General Warranties and Disclaimers Apply


March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 ©2010 CMAI, AllPage 17
Rights Reserved To view visit http://elmo.cmaiglobal.com/default.aspx/Warranty.htm 1 of 1
North America Aromatics Market Report STYRENE

• The sale of Dow Styron to Bain Capital by itself will not have much of an impact on the North American styrene
market. One could argue that the recession and the sale process has already created the significant changes with
the shutdown of Dow’s styrene facility in Freeport, TX and one styrene line in Europe. By the finalization of the
sale in late 2010, Dow’s ownership interest in styrene will be limited to their 15 percent option in Dow Styron.
Dow’s 50% ownership in Americas Styrenics is included in the sale of Dow Styron.

• With the disposition of Dow’s styrenics business clarified, the disposition of BASF’s styrenics business and
LyondellBasell’s emergence from bankruptcy now become the focus of attention. For North American styrene,
supply remains long and it will take an acquisition by a current player to significantly change the equation.

Near Term Outlook – U.S. Balances

• Domestic Demand – Domestic demand has slowed in the second half of March as inventories are pulled down
in anticipation of lower prices in April. The combination of lower prices and a seasonal uptick in demand is
expected in April. This will help styrene producers but it is export demand that is needed to balance the supply.
Additionally, nearly half of the demand is stymied by butadiene or polybutadiene rubber today.

• Export Demand – Export demand has been slow in March as North American styrene prices were pushed up-
wards by a tight ethylene market. The arb to Europe and Asia were closed. Although many were hopeful that
Asia prices would rebound after the Asian New Year holidays, this has not occurred. Planned and unplanned
outages in Europe are expected to push European styrene prices higher. This is expected to open the arb to
Europe unfortunately for the trade there is not a lot of spot availability in April.

• Production/Inventory – Inventories continued to grow in late February and March but is now being corrected.
The tight ethylene market reduced styrene production and helped keep the imbalance in line. Unfortunately
the lack of an export market continued to push inventories upwards until a large parcel was purchased by South
America and some parcels headed to Europe. As we indicated before, styrene inventories could quickly go from
long to short with a little bit of export demand.

• Planned/Unplanned Outages – In April, Cosmar, the Total and SABIC IP JV, will be down for an ethylbenzene
and styrene turnaround. There are other facilities that are production constrained due to low PO demand and
market conditions but the turnaround season in North America is light this year.

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 18


North America Aromatics Market Report STYRENE Derivatives
Derivative Demand Outlook
U.S. Polystyrene Economics
Dollars Per Metric Ton
• Domestic derivative demand for styrene con-
Cents Per Pound
120 2645

tinues to be positive although you wouldn’t


100 2204
arrive at that conclusion looking at demand
today. Demand slowed at the end of March 80 1763
but we believe this was due to the percep-
tion that prices would be lower in April. As 60 1322

a result inventories were pulled down a little. 40 882


Overall demand is not particularly strong but
the economy is slowly improving and the fear 20 441

that gripped the nation last year is gone. A


0 0
seasonal uptick in demand should kick in as Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
09 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10
the winter comes to an end. ~
Cash Cost Contract Spot Net. Trans. Margin

• Although polystyrene demand growth con-


tinues to stagnate, it hasn’t fared as badly as
other materials in this recession. Demand for U.S. & CANADA POLYSTYRENE MARKET SUMMARY (inclds. EPS)
16-Mar-10 Oct '09 - Jan '10
styrene into polystyrene slowed at the end of Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10
(MM Lbs) '10 vs '09 '10 vs '08
March and increased spot styrene availability.
Demand should return to a more normal level Total Supply 392 389 399 415 7.6% -16.2%
in April. Domestic Sales 415 350 390 386 -4.0% -22.7%
Total Sales 460 394 432 418 -3.1% -22.2%
• Many EPS demand segments are very cyclical Inventory Change -68 -5 -33 -3
and March is not a particularly strong month Source: APC, U.S. Dept. of Comm., CMAI Est.
for EPS demand. EPS production has slowed
but lower costs and the expectation of a seasonal improvement in demand is expected to improve demand for
styrene in April.

• Contrary to PS and EPS, the styrene derivatives that require butadiene are already beginning to suffer from the
high price of butadiene and supply constraints. This is expected to get worse, not better as the year progresses.
Half of the styrene demand, requires butadiene or PBR, this will hamper the normal demand pull for styrene
into these derivatives.

• Overall, we are optimistic about improving styrene demand in April but some of this will be due to inventory
adjustments and underlying demand will have to kick in as well to keep the wheel rolling.

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 19


North America Aromatics Market Report CYCLOHEXANE
Operations & Supply U.S. Caprolactam Economics
Dollars Per Metric Ton
• Domestic production during March has been 3,000

strong as U.S. producers are running at robust


rates on the back of healthy demand. The
2,500

supply situation is also stable now as all U.S.


2,000
producers should have now recovered from the
feedstock restrictions seen at the beginning of 1,500
the year. Moreover, there have been no major
operational issues to report during March, so 1,000
supply should be comfortable as we enter Q2
2010. 500
Cash Cost
CPL Asia Spot-USGC Netback

Demand 0
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
~
• As mentioned above, demand is currently
robust as producers of nylon intermediates U.S. CYCLOHEXANE IMPORTS
are continuing to run at high rates. Demand January Year-to-date (through January) Percent Change
for cyclohexane has also been particularly Imports From: 2010 2008 2009 2010 10 vs 08 10 vs 09
good during the past month as the current tight Netherlands 12.0 13.4 6.1 12.0 -10% 96%
supply of phenol has impacted those produc- China 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - -
ers which use phenol as a feedstock for their Brazil 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 -100% -
Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - -
caprolactam and adipic acid operations. Fur-
thermore, demand for U.S. exports of capro- TOTAL
Units: Thousand Tons
12.0 15.9 6.1 12.0 -24% 96%
Source: U.S. Dept. of Com. & CMAI estimates
lactam into Asia remains strong. Meanwhile,
domestic demand for nylon fiber continues to
be flat with no growth in sight. On the other U.S. CYCLOHEXANE EXPORTS
hand, demand for engineering resins from the January Year-to-date (through January) Percent Change
Exports to: 2010 2008 2009 2010 10 vs 08 10 vs 09
U.S. automotive sector has seen some slight
growth despite the recent drop in production Mexico 7.0 8.0 0.0 7.0 -12% 18391%
levels from Toyota which has been plagued Switzerland 7.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 - -
by public concerns regarding the safety of its Colombia
Others
1.1
0.2
0.0
8.4
0.0
7.8
1.1
0.2
-
-98%
-
-98%
vehicles. However, the impact of this issue
TOTAL 15.3 16.4 7.9 15.3 -7% 94%
on nylon demand may not become apparent Units: Thousand Tons Source: U.S. Dept. of Com. & CMAI estimates
until the next few months as their automobile
inventories reach lower levels.

Costs

• Production costs in the U.S. are estimated to have seen a significant drop in March as contract benzene for this
month settled at $3.43 per gallon, a drop of 7 percent when compared to February’s price. Meanwhile, spot
benzene prices during March continued to drop and were approaching $3.20 per gallon by midmonth, although
prices have now ticked higher, we could see a drop for April’s settlement. U.S. natural gas prices have also been
on a downward trend as inventories remain ample and home-heating demand begins to die down with warmer
temperatures. By mid-March, NYMEX prices had reached levels near $4.35 per MMBtu, which is a 16 percent
decrease when compared to the same period in February.

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 20


North America Aromatics Market Report CYCLOHEXANE
Trade

• With domestic production rates back to normal, March seemed to be a more active month in terms of trade—
although not by much—with a modest flow of product from the U.S. headed for South America. Furthermore,
there has been talk of interest in moving cyclohexane from the Americas into West Europe, but there have been
no confirmed transactions. Nonetheless, we will probably see some activity between U.S. and European traders
when March statistics become available. In the meantime, U.S. trade data is now available for January, which
show exports totaling 15.2 KT, a 25 percent drop when compared to December, but nevertheless a level very
much in line with those seen in previous years (with the exception of the terrible 2009 when January exports
were down 50 percent from this year’s level ). More specifically, January exports were primarily destined to
Mexico (7 KT), Switzerland (7 KT), and Colombia (1 KT).

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March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 21


North America Aromatics Market Report CUMENE
2010 United States Cumene Operating Schedule
(000 Metric Tons)
Capacity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Capacity 4,775 406 366 406 392 406 392 406 406 392 406 392 406
Capacity Lost 820 70 63 70 67 70 67 70 70 67 70 67 70
Capacity Lost: Others/Estimates 89 - - - 60 30 - - - - - - -
% Capacity Lost 19% 17% 17% 17% 32% 25% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%

Following the withdrawal of the Refinery Grade Propylene (RGP) contract price, CMAI has been basing its cumene
formula prices on the spot weighted average propylene price reported on the first Friday of each month. In Janu-
ary 2008, CMAI began reporting a new propylene marker entitled “Refinery Grade Propylene Weighted Average
Acquisition”. This price is the weighted combination of spot and contract transactions for the current month. We
continue to use the spot weighted average RGP price for our cumene contract price; however, we will consider
moving to the RGP Weighted Average Acquisition price if market participants start to adopt this price reference.
Price/Economics
U U.S. Cumene Raw Materials Relationship

• The CMAI Cumene Formula price for March


Dollars Per Metric Ton
1,800
Forecast
has been fixed on lower benzene, refinery 1,600

grade propylene and natural gas prices from 1,400


the previous month. The contract benzene 1,200
price decreased by $0.26 per gallon to $3.43 1,000
per gallon for March. The spot weighted aver- 800
age RGP price for February was 54.97 cents 600
per pound and slipped down to 54.09 cents
400
per pound at the start of March. Combined,
these yield a March Cumene Formula price of
200

0
52.70 cents per pound. Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11

Cumene Formula Benzene CP Crude Oil Refinery Propylene ~


Trade
U.S. CUMENE EXPORTS
• Trade data is available for January 2010, January Year-to-date (through January) Percent Change
however there was very little export volume Exports to: 2010 2008 2009 2010 10 vs 08 10 vs 09
transacted during that month with only 5.4 tons
Brazil 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - -
moving to Mexico. A lack of exports can be Germany 0.0 13.5 0.0 0.0 -100% -
attributed to an increase in feedstocks in the Italy 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - -
U.S. during the month of January as well as Netherlands 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - -
the lack of available capacity resulting from India 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - -
China 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - -
some operational issues during that month. Taiwan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - -
During the month of March, cumene export Others 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 -100% -
levels increased over those seen in February as TOTAL 0.0 17.2 0.0 0.0 -100% -
feedstock restrictions in Europe limited cumene Units: Thousand Tons Source: U.S. Dept. of Com. & CMAI estimates
operating rates.

Market

• The capacity in Corpus Christi, Texas is running following repairs required after the fire that erupted at the end
of last year and rates are believed to be at or near their maximums in support of the continued strong demand
pull from phenol due to domestic consumption into phenol derivatives, some of which are being exported to
Asia to help feed the demand for that region. Refinery grade propylene prices have climbed up and now hover
around 60 cents per pound; cumene’s formula price nature allows for a fairly straight forward passing of this
cost down the chain. It is the phenol/acetone business that will find the increase harder to handle.

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 22


North America Aromatics Market Report CUMENE
Price/Margin Outlook
North America
Cumene Trade Forecast
• CMAI is forecasting that prices will move in Thousand Metric Tons % Operating Rate
300 100
line with raw materials and, as such, we ex-
pect that the April price will increase by 1.12 250 90

cents per pound as a net result of feedstocks 200 80


moving in opposite directions. While benzene
prices soften 11 cents per gallon, refinery grade 150 70

propylene prices will continue remain strong 100 60


with expectations of prices around six cents per
pound higher in the coming month. Refinery 50 50

outages in other regions continues to drive 0 40


propylene derivative export demand and thus 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

keep domestic refinery grade propylene supply Imports (157.2/-61.1) Exports (-21.5/21.1) Net Exports (-29.1/34.1) Operating Rate

tight. %AAGR 04-09/09-14 ~

U.S. Cumene Economics


Cents Per Pound
80
Forecast
70

60

50

40

30

20

10 SPA CC, RGC3 Zeolite CC, RGC3


Zeolite CC, C3 Alkylate CMAI Formula
0
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11
~

Royalties have not been counted in the cash cost calculation ~

U.S. Cumene Demand


(Domestic vs International)
Metric Tons
1400

1200

1000

800

600

400 Domestic cumene demand = "other cumene" +


domestic phenol demand + phenol net exports

200

0
Q1-08 Q3-08 Q1-09 Q3-09 Q1-10 Q3-10 Q1-11 Q3-11
Other Cumene Demand Domestic Phenol Demand
Cumene Exports Phenol Net Exports
Capacity, Nameplate ~

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 23


North America Aromatics Market Report PHENOL
February U.S. phenol contract prices settled, on average, at an increase of 1.90 cents per pound from January; therefore, the
CMAI Weight Average Index of freely negotiated contract prices is 78.42 cents per pound for February.

Price/Economics
U.S. Phenol/Raw Materials Monthly Price Change
Dollars Per Metric Ton, Month Dollars Per MetricTon, Year Cumulative
• U.S. benzene contract prices rose by 14 cents 400 850

per gallon from January to February while the 200


650

February refinery grade spot weighted aver- 450


age propylene (RGP) price increased by hefty 0
250
6.59 cents per pound from January’s level. -200 50
Meanwhile, phenol’s co-product credit price
-150
for February increased by 2.5 cents per pound -400

(on average) from the previous month.


-350
-600
-550
-800
• The March phenol prices have yet to settle, *** Producers want blue line above red line
-750

however the benzene movement was a de- -1000 -950


Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10
crease of 3.53 cents per pound from February.
Benzene*0.9 Phenol Bz - Yr Avg Phenol - Yr Avg
CMAI expects that settlements will move ~
down by this month or slightly less as ac-
etone prices are struggling to keep pace with U.S. Phenol Cash Cost
Cents Per Pound
strong RGP prices. This struggle is brought 100
about by low inventories of RGP keeping
Forecast
90
80
prices up all while strong phenol demand
70
adds to acetone availability and makes pass- 60
ing costs down this side of the chain more 50

challenging. 40
30
20
Trade 10
0

• Trade data is available for January of 2010 -10


-20
and is shown in the accompanying table. Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11
Exports of phenol increased by almost 6.5 Net Feed Cost - Cum at Formula Variable Cost

thousand tons from December to January. Direct Fixed Cost


Phenol Net Ind. Avg. Margin
Phenol Contract, Wt Avg
~
The volume to China remained fairly steady
from the previous month while we can see
U.S. Phenol Supply/Demand Balance
the emergence of exports to West Europe
Metric Tons % Operating Rate
and Thailand resulting from limits on feed- 800 90

stock cumene, as is the case in Europe, or 700 80


the increase in derivative demand and lack
600
of running phenol capacity, as is the case for 70
500
Asia. 60
400
50
Market 300
40
200
• As mentioned, phenol demand has been very
30
strong. Some of the pull on supply has been 100
continued phenol derivative exports to Asia 0 20

as demand increases there and capacity of-


Q1-09 Q3-09 Q1-10 Q3-10 Q1-11 Q3-11
Production Domestic Demand
fline within the region have them looking for Capacity, Nameplate
Op Rate, Effective
Op Rate, Nameplate
~
imports. The cumene feedstock limitations
in Europe are making that region nonviable as a substantial exporter for the time being and thus more phenol

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 24


North America Aromatics Market Report PHENOL
2010 United States Phenol Operating Schedule
(000 Metric Tons)
Capacity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Capacity 2,945 250 226 250 242 250 242 250 250 242 250 242 250
Capacity Lost 43 3 3 25 12 - - - - - - - -
Capacity Lost: Others/Estimates 104 20 10 - 49 25 - - - - - - -
% Capacity Lost 5% 9% 6% 10% 25% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

is being sourced from the U.S. Additionally, U.S. PHENOL EXPORTS


this lack of phenol supply in Europe has com-
January Year-to-date (through January) Percent Change
panies with bisphenol A and/or polycarbonate Exports to: 2010 2008 2009 2010 10 vs 08 10 vs 09
capacity in both regions leaning more heavily
on their U.S. assets to supply their customers Canada 5.4 11.3 5.3 5.4 -52% 2%
Korea, South 0.4 2.0 0.0 0.4 -80% -
globally. Phenol demand into bisphenol A has West Europe 5.6 11.0 2.6 5.6 -49% 115%
been strong as a result of good epoxy demand Thailand 7.3 3.7 0.0 7.3 100% -
and even better polycarbonate demand. The China 9.1 2.1 2.1 9.1 335% 345%
draw for polycarbonate has been into automo- Mexico 2.0 1.8 2.1 2.0 14% -6%
India 1.9 0.0 0.0 1.9 - -
tive and some construction applications, some Others 2.6 6.6 1.0 4.6 -30% 338%
of which may be restocking but some is clearly
TOTAL 34.6 38.3 13.2 36.5 -5% 176%
attributable to increases in consumer spending.
Units: Thousand Tons Source: U.S. Dept. of Com. & CMAI estimates
Also, the demand for polycarbonate into appli-
ances has improved. Overall the U.S. phenol
chain is seeing high operating rates and yet a United States Net Exports
tight supply situation; this continues to leave Thousand Metric Tons
70
some domestic phenol derivative producers
scrambling to find enough phenol as they have 60

demand to export their products. 50

40

• Dow declared force majeure on phenol in mid- 30


March following the discovery of a broken 20
heat exchanger at their Oyster Creek, Texas
10
facility during a maintenance outage. The
0
issue is expected to be resolved by mid April.
This coupled with the upcoming maintenance -10
outage of a major phenol/acetone producer in -20
Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09
Texas will continue to squeeze phenol avail-
Polycarbonate Bisphenol Cumene Phenol ~
ability.

• We expect negotiated phenol prices to follow benzene price movements closely for the next month or so, how-
ever acetone’s price strength relative to RGP looks to have begun to wane as February acetone prices settled
on average at an increase of 2.5 cents per pound while RGP prices moved up 6.6 cents per pound. As it stands,
March should see phenol prices at a decrease of 3.5 cents per pound while there is no real indication as to how
much the acetone price will move.

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 25


North America Aromatics Market Report PARAXYLENE
United States
Contract PX Status cts/lb US$/MT
March Settled 50.50 1113
April Forecast 52.00 1146
Spot PX 25-Feb-10 4-Mar-10 11-Mar-10 18-Mar-10
Current Month cts/lb 43.1 - 44.7 n 43.1 - 44.7 n 44.2 - 44.9 n 44.9 - 45.8 n
March US$/MT 950.0 - 985.0 n 950.0 - 985.0 n 975.0 - 990.0 n 990.0 - 1010.0 n
Forward Month cts/lb 43.1 - 44.7 n 43.1 - 44.7 n 44.2 - 44.9 n 45.8 - 46.3 n
April US$/MT 950.0 - 985.0 n 950.0 - 985.0 n 975.0 - 990.0 n 1010.0 - 1020.0 n

PRICING U.S. PX Economic Summary


Cash Costs

• PX spot prices, which ended the month of Contract Spot


Weighted Non Non
Average Weighted Integrated Integrated Integrated Integrated
February around $975 per ton were very quite $/MT Price Price Margin Average Adsorbtion Adsorption STDP STDP
Jul-09 1036 959 140 979 942 1119 941 997
in early March. Three was one rumored trade Aug-09 1130 1039 246 1089 1057 1171 1139 1084
around mid month for April at $1,015 indicat- Sep-09 1130 893 185 961 926 1057 974 1041
Oct-09 920 838 -97 1011 981 1064 1077 1034
ing that traders expected markets to turn a Nov-09 1042 942 42 1079 1044 1160 1107 1088
corner in the coming month. Dec-09 1152 1074 165 1069 1020 1213 1025 1130
Jan-10 1185 1029 178 1104 1061 1266 998 1173
Feb-10 1146 994 201 1059 1025 1168 1009 1118
• The U.S. PX contract for March has settled at Mar-10 1113 982 48 1101 1066 1184 1123 1135
Apr-10 1157 84 1107 1070 1215 1111 1171
50.5 cents per pound ($1,113 per ton). This May-10 1196 118 1152 1122 1221 1181 1171
is a decrease of 1.5 cents per pound ($33 per
ton). Asia has settled down $30 to $35 per U.S. Contract PX Spreads
ton (depending on February settlement) to Net Delivered Basis
Dollars Per Metric Ton
$1,020 per ton. While consumers achieved 800

rough parity with Asia, producers are facing 700

a fairly strong increase in costs for the month 600

and are looking at a significant compression in 500

margins. 400

300

MARGINS 200

100

• With the 1.5 cent per pound ($33 per ton) de- 0

crease in contract prices, producers will face Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul-10 Aug- Sep-
09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
a weighted average decline in margins of over PX Over Crude PX Over MX Blend Value
PX Over MX Contract PX Over Naphtha
$150 per ton as the lower sales price collides PX Over Regular Gasoline ~
with a roughly $130 per ton weighted average
increase in feedstock costs. Weighted average
margins could drop below $50 per ton, their U.S. PX Exports
Thousand Metric Tons
lowest point since November. 200
180

• Integrated xylenes based assets will likely see 160


140
costs rise $115 per ton as octane values increase 120
with the onset of gasoline season. Margins will 100
decline to below $25 per ton. Merchant mixed 80

xylenes contract prices increased only $12 per 60


40
ton but the lower PX sales price will compress
20
the return on merchant based units to below 0
$15 per ton. Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun-
08 09 09 09 09 09 09
Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan-
09 09 09 09 09 09 10

• The strong increase in octane values and fall-


Other China Europe
India & Pakistan SEA Brazil
Korea Taiwan Mexico ~
ing benzene markets have pushed up the raw
material costs for integrated STDPs by $250
per ton. This combined with the expected PX contract price decrease will see the margins of these assets decline

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 26


North America Aromatics Market Report PARAXYLENE
$280 per ton. They will still however be the U.S. PX Quarterly Supply/Demand
strongest assets in the field with margins over Qtrly Demand, KMTA Operating Rate, %
900 100
$150 per ton.
800
90
SUPPLY/DEMAND/TRADE 700

600 80

• Downstream polyester demand continues to 500


show signs of improvement and domestic 400
70

demand for PX is increasing but only slightly. 300 60


Consumers are calling for more supply at the
200
same time they are pushing for lower prices. 50
100

• January trade data shows a significant decline in 0


2009 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010 Q2 Q3 Q4 2011 Q2 Q3 Q4
40

U.S. exports. The strong exports in December


Demand Supply Capacity Operating Rate ~
came at the expense of a lower January. Total
exports in January were only 47 thousand tons
United States PX Prices & Margins
(kt) with all of that going to Mexico. When the Delivered Basis - Industry Average Production Costs
Dollars Per Metric Ton
January and December exports are averaged 1,400
they are on the general trend of the previous 1,200
months.
1,000

• Trade data shows that imports into the U.S. fell


800

off to around 8 kt in January with all of that 600

from Brazil. 400

200

FORWARD VIEW 0

-200

• We expect that demand for polyester bottles Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10

will continue to pick up in April and the next Before-Tax Margin Direct Fixed Costs Variable Costs
Feedstock Costs PX Contract ~
several months with improved weather. The
startup of AlphaPET’s second train at Decatur,
United States PX Prices & Margins
Alabama should also give a temporary shot in Delivered Basis - Industry Average Production Costs
the arm for PTA and PX demand. Dollars Per Metric Ton
1,600
% Operating Rate
100

1,400 90
• Crude oil and octane values are moving up with 1,200
the startup of gasoline season. This is pressur-
80
1,000
ing the alternative values of PX molecules and 800
70

its feedstocks. Spot values have been respond- 600


60

ing to this momentum. We believe that this will 400


50

push up contract prices in April by roughly 2 200


40

cents per pound and nearly that again in May 0 30


and June as well. -200 20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Margin Direct Fixed Variable
Feedstock PX Contract Operating Rate ~

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 27


North America Aromatics Market Report PTA
U.S. PTA Forecast
Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10
US. PX Contract Price cts/lb 52.3 53.8 52.0 50.5 52.5 54.3 57
US$/MT 1152 1185 1146 1113 1157 1196 1246
US PTA Formula cts/lb 47.5 48.8 47.7 46.6 48.3 49.5 51
US$/MT 1048 1076 1051 1028 1065 1091 1124
Asian PTA Price US$/MT 910 930 940 930 953 983 953
US-Asian Delta US$/MT 137.5 146.3 110.5 98.3 112.2 108.2 171.7

PRICING/ECONOMICS United States Versus Asian PTA Prices


Delta Dollars Per Metric Ton
• We have published our March PTA benchmark 250 1,500

price at 46.65 cents per pound ($1028 per ton).


This is a decrease of 1 cent per pound from 200 1,200

February. All of the decrease was from the


150 900
change in the PX contract price with the other
factors fixed for the remainder of the quarter.
100 600

• With Asian spot PTA prices having averaged 50 300


around $950 per ton in March so far, the U.S.
PTA price disadvantage for March is estimated 0 0
at around $80 per ton per ton on a published Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul-10 Aug- Sep-
09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
basis and is much lower than that on a net basis. Delta U.S. PTA Asia PTA
With higher ocean freight, Asian PET producers
~

are not able to count on a raw material advan-


United States PTA Trade
tage through PTA to offset their logistics costs Thousand Metric Tons
60
to the U.S. This is helping to keep U.S PET Exports
imports lower and thus U.S. domestic PET and 40

PTA production higher.


20

SUPPLY/DEMAND/TRADE 0

• March PTA demand continued to show im- -20

provement with an increase in downstream PET


-40
and bottle demand. The improvement however Imports
was only slight and capacity utilization in the -60
North American PTA industry remains very Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10
Mexico Canada Asia
low. South America Europe Middle East & Africa
Net Trade ~

• The U.S. had an extremely strong export month


in January with almost 33 kt of exports overall. Thousand Metric Tons
North American PTA Trade
January’s trade statistics show exports of 10 kt 90
Exports
to Argentina, 9 kt to Brazil, 8 kt to Oman, and 80

5 kt to South Africa. 70

60

• U.S. imports from Canada rebounded further to 50

38 kt. 40 I

30

FORECAST 20

10

• PET demand should continue to improve 0


Imports
through second quarter with warmer weather -10
Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09
and better beverage demand. PTA demand will China Latin America Rest Of Asia
also pick up further in April with the expected Europe Middle East & Africa Net Trade ~

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 28


North America Aromatics Market Report PTA

startup of AlphaPET’s second PET line. This improvement will be short lived however as the supply is not
needed in the market place.

• We project that PTA contract prices will increase over 1.5 cents per pound in April and that much again in both
May and June with stronger PX markets globally. We do not expect for Asia’s price advantage to come back in
the near future.

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& Polyester Analysis
The 2010 World Terephthalates & Polyester Analysis will
function as your most versatile source of manufacturing, market-
ing, economic and forecast information with data presented over
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supply/demand databases.
To order your copy of CMAI’s 2010 World Terephthalates &
Polyester Analysis, contact CMAI at cmai@cmaiglobal.com.
www.cmaiglobal.com

~
CMAI - Headquarters Regional Offices
11757 Katy Freeway, Suite 700
Houston, TX 77079 USA Dubai - Düsseldorf - London
Tel: 1-281-531-4660 New York - Shanghai - Singapore
Chemicals - Plastics - Fibers
Fax: 1-281-531-9966

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 29


North America Aromatics Market Report PET
U.S. Summary Economics
~ Cents Per Pound
DEC-09 JAN-10 FEB-10 MAR-10 APR-10 MAY-10 JUN-10
Crude Oil (WTI $/bbl) 74 78 76 81 79 79 79
Crude Oil (WTI cents/lb) 23.14 24.34 23.76 25.16 24.71 24.50 24.63
PX 52.25 53.75 52.00 50.50 52.00 54.25 56.50
PTA 47.52 48.82 47.65 46.65 47.98 49.49 51.00
MEG 39.01 42.64 47.17 48.53 48.53 40.37 37.19
PET Benchmark Price 76.75 79.75 81.25 81.25 * 82.75 80.75 80.50
** Large Buyer Net Transaction 65.75 68.75 70.25 70.25 * 71.75 69.75 69.50
PET - Asian average Delivered to U.S. 61.82 64.33 66.33 6.49 66.52 66.94 65.40
Major Raws (PTA & MEG) 54.47 56.88 57.49 57.12 58.26 56.65 56.81
U.S. Spreads
U.S. PET-PX & MEG 21.60 22.44 23.34 23.73 * 24.36 23.95 23.53
U.S. PET - PTA & MEG 10.84 11.42 12.29 12.66 * 13.01 12.65 12.25
U.S. PET - Asian PET Dlvd. To U.S. 3.93 4.42 3.92 63.76 * 5.23 2.81 4.10
*Estimate - MAR-10 contract price is unsettled at this time.
**Net transaction price for large buyers of commodity grade PET, delivered in railcars to East Coast locations.
Calculations are based off of this price.

PRICING/ECONOMICS

February Price Settlement – we have published our February PET benchmark prices as settled at an
increase of 1.5 cents per pound from January. Raw material costs increased roughly 0.6 cents per pound
but producers held on for increases of up to 2 cents per pound in most cases as they attempted to recover
lost margin from the last several months. Many producers did indeed achieve increases of 2 cents per
pound for their market based prices. We increased our benchmark price 1.5 cents per pound based on the
lower increase in raw material plus contracts which average the overall industry down and our belief that
net prices over the past several months have not moved up quite to the extent of our published increases
for the same period. Net pricing for February was generally in the low to mid 60s (cents per pound).

• U.S. PET producers did not announce increase


United States Polyester Bottle Resin Economics
for March. PET prices for March are not yet Delivered Basis
settled. PX and PTA have decreased but this Dollars Per Metric Ton
2000
will likely be offset by glycol and total raw
material costs may roll over. Consumers are 1500

looking closely at raw material costs and are


keen to push prices down to offset some of
1000

February’s increase. Producers are still strug- 500


gling with unacceptable economics and are
looking to hold price. 0

• U.S. PET producers have announced increases


-500
Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10

of 4 cents per pound for April. They cite PET Cash Cost - Merchant PTA
PET Contract
PET Cash Cost - Integrated PTA
Margin, Merch PTA
concern over possible raw material increases Margin, Integ PTA
~
and the need to improve their economics to a
sustainable level.

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 30


North America Aromatics Market Report PET
SUPPLY/DEMAND United States PET Economics
Non-Integrated Producer/Discounts Applied

• PET bottle demand has picked up some in the Dollars Per Metric Ton
1800
soft drink and sports drink sectors but water is 1600

still slow. Thermoforming demand has picked 1400

up especially in the fruit and producer sectors 1200

as the picking seasons for those markets near. 1000

800

600
• Demand for recycled bottles has picked up 400

and bale pricing is moving above 20 cents per 200

pound in some areas as new converting capac- 0

-200
ity enters the market. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PX Comp PTA Comp

• AlphaPET is expecting to start the second train


MEG Comp Conv Costs & Oth Raw
Contract Price Margin
~
of their 432 kta plant in Decatur, Alabama in
Asian Dlvd Cost

early April according to industry information.


U.S. PET Resin Imports From Asia
• General operating rates in the industry remain Thousand Metric Tons
50
in the upper 70s to low 80s.
45

40
TRADE 35

30
• Imports from non-NAFTA countries fell in Jan- 25
uary (the latest data available) to 23.6 thousand 20
tons (kt). This is well below the 30 kt imported 15

in January 2009 and below the 32 kt monthly 10

average for the last 12 months. This reflects 5

0
the extreme price competition amongst U.S. Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10
producers and the loss of the raw material ad- Middle East South America Other Asia
vantage for Asian producers. Asian exporters China Taiwan India
~
are finding it difficult to compete even on the
Indonesia South Korea Thailand

West Coast with full duty paid. Non-NAFTA


duty free imports were 12.4 kt from a high of PET Variable Cost Comparison
28 kt back in May. This was still 53 percent of Cost / Dollars Per Metric Ton Difference / Dollars Per Metric Ton

non-NAFTA imports. China fell to 19 percent


1400 500

of total non-NAFTA imports. 1300 400

1200 300
• The U.S. had roughly 30 kt of exports in Janu-
ary with over 10.5 kt of that going to Central 1100 200

& South America and the Caribbean as those 1000 100


regions are in the final throws of their summer
seasons. 900 0

800 -100
Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep-
09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Asian PX/EG US PX/EG
Asian PTA/EG US PTA/EG
US/Asian PTA based difference Asian Delivered Cost to US EC Customer
Asian Delivered Cost to US EC Customer w/ duty ~

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 31


North America Aromatics Market Report PET
FORECAST

• Spot PX markets in Asia have rebounded and we expect that U.S. contract prices will be pressured every month
through June as octane markets improve with gasoline season.

• We expect that PET costs will increase close to 1.5 cents per pound in April based on the strong movement in
PX. Producers have announced a 4 cent per pound increase in PET prices for April. They will need much of
that to offset raw materials and to get their economics to a point of sustainability.

The PET Stream Market Advisory Service offers cli-


ents in the PET packaging resin industries a global view of
the PET supply chain from paraxylene and monoethylene
glycol through terephthalic acid and PET.
The Service Includes...
• a weekly update on pricing and market move-
ments
• a monthly market summary
• access to our online price database with both
monthly and annual price history and fore-
casts
• reasonable access to the regional consultants

Contact CMAI for more info at cmai@cmaiglobal.com

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 32


North America Aromatics Market Report ORTHOXYLENE

U.S. PX / OX Price Comparison


• OX contract prices for March settled at 47 cents Price - Dollars Per Metric Ton Spread - Dollars Per Metric Ton
per pound. This was a rollover from February. 1400 350

The OX to MX spread rose to $212 per ton in 1200 300


March as MX contract prices fell roughly $12
1000 250
per ton.
800 200

• We expect that the spread over mixed xylene 600 150


contract prices will hold near the $200 per ton
400 100
level and that OX prices will increase roughly
1 cent per pound in April. 200 50

0 0
Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11

OX NET - MX CP OX Contract PX Contract MX Contract


~

ORDER YOUR COPY NOW!

2010 World Toluene &


Mixed Xylenes Analysis
The 2010 World Toluene & Mixed Xylenes Analysis will func-
tion as your most versatile source of manufacturing, marketing,
economic and forecast information with data presented over 11
years (2004-2014) and access to CMAI’s online capacity and sup-
ply/demand databases.
To order your copy of CMAI’s 2010 World Toluene & Mixed
Xylenes Analysis, contact CMAI at cmai@cmaiglobal.com.
www.cmaiglobal.com

~
CMAI - Headquarters Regional Offices
11757 Katy Freeway, Suite 700
Houston, TX 77079 USA Dubai - Düsseldorf - London
Tel: 1-281-531-4660 New York - Shanghai - Singapore
Chemicals - Plastics - Fibers
Fax: 1-281-531-9966

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 33


North America Aromatics Market Report U.S. PRICE PAGE

HISTORICAL CONTRACT PRICES


UNITED STATES

Mixed Formula Styrene


Benzene (6) Xylenes (6) Cyclohexane Cumene Market
Date Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
CT/GAL CT/GAL CT/GAL CT/LB CT/LB
Mar 129.00 129.00 180.0 180.0 144.93 144.93 22.51 22.51 43.00 46.25
Apr 169.00 169.00 205.0 205.0 177.93 177.93 24.76 24.76 46.25 49.50
May 190.00 190.00 210.0 210.0 195.25 195.25 28.08 28.08 44.25 47.50
Jun 234.00 234.00 238.0 238.0 231.55 231.55 35.63 35.63 48.50 51.75
Jul 292.00 292.00 236.0 236.0 279.40 279.40 41.69 41.69 54.50 57.75
Aug 365.00 365.00 254.0 254.0 339.63 339.63 48.89 48.89 61.00 64.25
Sep 279.00 279.00 234.0 234.0 268.68 268.68 46.09 46.09 53.75 57.00
Oct 260.00 260.00 214.0 214.0 253.00 253.00 41.77 41.77 52.75 56.00
Nov 285.00 285.00 253.0 253.0 273.63 273.63 43.01 43.01 54.50 57.75
Dec 298.00 298.00 263.0 263.0 284.35 284.35 46.50 46.50 58.75 62.00
Jan 2010 355.00 355.00 295.0 295.0 331.38 331.38 51.77 51.77 67.00 70.25
Feb 369.00 369.00 305.0 305.0 342.93 342.93 55.39 55.39 68.25 71.50

PET Bottle Phthalic


Paraxylene (1) PTA (1) Resin (1) Orthoxylene Anhydride(5)
Date Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
CT/LB CT/LB CT/LB CT/LB CT/LB
Mar 40.50 40.50 40.13 42.60 70.00 74.00 33.50 33.50 46.00 47.00
Apr 44.00 44.00 41.49 41.49 70.00 74.00 36.50 36.50 44.50 45.50
May 49.50 49.50 45.18 45.18 74.50 78.50 36.50 36.50 47.50 48.50
Jun 50.00 50.00 45.51 45.51 74.50 78.50 39.50 39.50 47.50 48.50
Jul 47.00 47.00 43.57 43.57 74.25 78.25 39.50 39.50 50.50 51.50
Aug 51.25 51.25 46.42 46.42 77.25 81.25 40.00 41.00 50.50 51.50
Sep 51.25 51.25 46.42 46.42 78.25 82.25 40.00 40.00 51.50 52.50
Oct 41.50 42.00 40.48 40.48 73.00 77.00 37.50 37.50 51.80 52.80
Nov 47.25 47.25 44.17 44.17 73.75 77.75 42.00 42.00 49.50 50.50
Dec 52.25 52.25 47.52 47.52 76.75 80.75 43.50 44.50 54.00 55.00
Jan 2010 53.75 53.75 48.82 48.82 79.75 83.75 48.00 48.00 56.00 57.00
Feb 52.00 52.00 47.65 47.65 81.25 85.25 47.00 47.00 60.00 61.00

NOTE: Please refer to the monthly prices on page 2 for explanations of notes.

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 34


North America Aromatics Market Report W.E. PRICE PAGE

HISTORICAL CONTRACT PRICES


WEST EUROPE

Styrene
Benzene Cyclohexane Phenol Contract (1,7)
Date Low High Low High Low High Low High
EURO/Ton EURO/Ton EURO/Ton EURO/Ton
Mar 262 262 382 382 685 685 619 644
Apr 381 381 496 496 804 804 640 665
May 439 439 554 554 862 862 733 758
Jun 525 525 640 640 948 948 763 788
Jul 656 656 776 776 1079 1079 811 836
Aug 744 744 864 864 1167 1167 904 915
Sep 576 576 696 696 999 999 968 979
Oct 505 505 631 631 928 928 876 885
Nov 547 547 673 673 970 970 829 854
Dec 570 570 696 696 993 993 816 841
Jan 2010 759 759 894 894 1182 1182 848 873
Feb 723 723 858 858 1146 1146 1019 1044

Para- PET Bottle Ortho- Phthalic


xylene (1) PTA (1) Resin (1) xylene (1) Anhydride(5)
Date Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
EURO/Ton EURO/Ton EURO/Ton EURO/Ton EURO/Ton
Mar 695 695 822 822 899 939 550 550 720 760
Apr 705 705 849 849 888 930 570 570 740 780
May 795 795 927 927 965 1005 580 580 750 790
Jun 795 795 927 927 946 995 620 620 785 825
Jul 728 728 873 873 922 972 620 620 785 825
Aug 760 760 905 905 953 998 650 650 815 855
Sep 760 760 905 905 965 1008 660 660 825 865
Oct 615 615 789 789 898 942 615 615 790 830
Nov 680 680 838 838 920 966 650 650 815 855
Dec 740 740 889 889 964 1010 660 660 820 860
Jan 2010 800 800 937 937 1025 1065 690 690 850 890
Feb 800 800 937 937 1060 1098 720 720 880 920
NOTE: Please refer to the monthly prices on page 2 for explanations of notes.
March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 35
North America Aromatics Market Report ASIA/PACIFIC PRICE PAGE
HISTORICAL CONTRACT PRICES
ASIA / PACIFIC

Benzene Benzene Styrene Mixed Para-


FOB Korea SE Asia CFR Taiwan Xylenes xylene (1) PTA (1)
Date Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High
$/TON $/TON $/TON $/TON $/TON $/TON
Mar 418 474 418 474 833 850 662 669 830 830 720 730
Apr 598 628 598 628 993 1005 738 745 880 880 850 860
May 608 642 608 642 890 914 747 747 1000 1000 880 890
Jun 722 764 722 764 1005 1038 800 815 1000 1000 820 820
Jul 818 855 818 855 1056 1090 831 837 960 960 860 875
Aug 821 849 827 842 1139 1160 868 878 1040 1040 940 950
Sep 758 790 758 790 1033 1051 768 788 1040 1040 820 820
Oct 750 771 750 771 981 998 776 783 1000 1000 815 825
Nov 850 874 850 874 1058 1083 859 869 960 960 910 910
Dec 923 964 923 964 1156 1193 896 914 1060 1060 930 940
Jan 2010 1013 1063 1013 1063 1288 1312 953 964 1090 1090 950 955
Feb 935 955 935 955 1291 1313 878 886 1055 1055 960 960
NOTE: Please refer to the monthly prices on page 2 for explanations of notes.
Provisional Pricing

March 19, 2010 Issue No. 1308 Page 36