This brief draws substantially from an IPS roundtable with the same title on February 27, 2017.
T he election of Donald Trump as the
president of the United States of America
has kicked off a period of uncertainty,
confusion and fear, both internally in the US as
well as globally. This election is unique and
extraordinary and will have long lasting effects on
Americas history and politics. It has proved that
US media, think tanks and policy makers could not
gauge the mass resentment cooking in American
society, which Trump focussed on and exploited
very well to win the elections. He has successfully
proved that manipulating the public sentiment is
key to defeat a very strong establishment. The
most crucial question of the time is whether
Donald Trump will adhere to his campaign
promises and what future holds for Pakistan in the
changing dynamics of a currently unipolar world.
The idea that his campaign rhetoric and style,
based on biases and prejudices, was just a tool to
win him the election, is slowly proving wrong. He
has already sent out a strong message that he
would stick to his promises that won him the
office. There is conflict within the United States.
There is a rise in hate crimes against all the groups
he targeted in his campaign and there is deafening
silence from the presidential office on this
upsurge. Some think tanks and political analysts
are foreseeing a possible impeachment while
others predict that Trump will complete his term
[1]
despite a four-year tenure of chaos and tensions,
action and reaction as well as confusion. Trump is
an ideology that has reflected, as well as sparked a
wave of far-right movements, not only in the US
but across the world including Europe and
Australia. It signifies the beginning of the downfall
of Western civilisation and the values it upheld and
preached to the world.
One certainty is that Americas policies would
change, both domestically and globally, and
Pakistan should be ready for this change. On the
Trumps policy towards Pakistan would
be the continuation of existing US
policy which is to contain Pakistans
nuclear ambitions.
other hand, it needs to be recognized that where
uncertainty brings frustration in many ways, it may
well be an opportunity for discovery of new
avenues. Most of Trumps pre-election campaign
focussed on making America great again.
American nationalism is his priority and this
agenda will be pursued despite resistance.
American time, policies and efforts would be
focused more on internal issues than external,
resulting in reduced global role. Internationalism,
globalization, free markets and ideals of liberal
democracy will be rolled back and a strongly
nationalistic stance will be pursued.
Trump has been a target of his own medias
propaganda pre- and post-election campaign.
Especially his ties with Russia are being carefully
watched. He would be under immense pressure
whatever global decisions he takes. Americas
policy in the Middle East is nothing but Israels
policy, and its policy in South Asia is primarily a
reflection of Indias policy. There seem to be no
immediate strategic threats for Pakistan, but
emphasis would be to bring India into Nuclear
Suppliers Group which would create an imbalance
in the region. Pakistans challenge would be
economic stability and her approach should be
multilateral and considering possibilities of more
alliances. In Trump era, more money will be spent
on military build-up and nuclear arsenal renewal.
It might not mean troops on ground in more
countries but it surely means that era of
manageable bilateral ties is over. The time of easy
and free relations for Pakistan is over.
In this scenario, the most decisive factor for
Pakistan would be how the US builds ties with
China. With the increasing presence of new bases
on Chinese borders, this might become a conflict
area in the future. Therefore, Pakistan would not
become irrelevant however the situation might
evolve. Despite the uncertainty of the time, the
bilateral relations of US and Pakistan would
remain extremely important. The myth that
Pakistan and US were or can be strategic friends
has long been disproved. In Trumps era, it seems
that America will have very few strategic friends,
if any, and Pakistan would be out of question. Pak-
US relations have been and will, in all probability,
be transactional in future. Such ties have limits and
are only used for the respective interests on both
sides.
The American presence in Afghanistan would
continue in Trumps era due to two reasons.
Firstly, to make a point that they are needed in an
unstable country and secondly, and more
[2]
importantly, to be close to Pakistans nuclear
assets to protect them from extremist access and
maintain influence as well as keeping an eye on
other countries neighbouring Afghanistan.
Thus, Trumps policy towards Pakistan would be
the continuation of existing US policy which is to
contain Pakistans nuclear ambitions. The India
first policy is not new either and hostility towards
Iran and watchful attitude towards China is also a
continuation. It would be a challenge for Pakistan
to manage ties with US and China simultaneously
without compromising her own national interest.
Pakistan should be wary of possibilities of any
misunderstandings which might be created in its
relations with China. CPEC currently seems to be
Internationalism, globalization, free
markets and ideals of liberal democracy
will be rolled back and a strongly
nationalistic stance will be pursued.
a one-way corridor where bilateral movement does
not exist. In this situation, it would be very easy to
provoke the Pakistan public and traders against
China which can ultimately affect the success of
project.
Pakistans leadership should prioritise national
interest with all honesty and confidence and should
revisit the reliance on America and look for
alternate friends. Pakistan-Turkey ties have a key
role to play in the coming future and so is the
relation with Iran. Pak-Iran pipeline is a very
important strategic necessity which has been
ignored in the past and should be brought into
consideration again. In Pak-US ties, Pakistan has
always pursued American line more than her own
interest. Similarly, CPEC is a significant, historic
and game changing development. But this is the
key moment to define, prioritise and safeguard our
own interests. Theres a big disparity in China and
Pakistan economic situations. Pakistan should try
to bridge this gap and make use of this golden
opportunity. In the new emerging global scenario,
 ties with China, Iran, Turkey and Russia hold key
importance, and so are the relations with Malaysia
and Indonesia. Middle East should be made a part
of the alliance but keeping in mind their fragile, ill-
advised and dis-balanced economy, political and
economic stability is a far-fetched dream in that
region.
Prepared by IPS Task Force | For queries: Mairaj-ul-Hamid, Asst. Research Coordinator, mairaj@ips.net.pk
[3]
Trumps policies towards Pakistan are still unclear
and would unfold with time. The focus of US
President would be more inward. Pakistan should
avoid defeatist approach as well as over optimistic
approach. The correct political strategy would be
caution and active diplomacy. Pakistan does not
want enmity with United States but should keep
her own national interest in the forefront which has
not been the case in the past.
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