Developing and Conducting Appropriate

Experiments to Determine Probability

Science Technology Engineering Mathematics

Sample Unit

Water Bottle Probability

Eighth Grade STEM Class
Approximately Six Class Days (40 minutes each)
Miss. Laureana Zrada

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Developing and Conducting Appropriate
Experiments to Determine Probability

Subject (Focus) Grade: Timeline: Number of instructional days:

STEM 8th Grade 6 days
Subject Focus Areas:
Area #1: Thinking Scientifically & Scientific Method Area #2: Analysis of Data & Probability Area #3: Validity

Unit Key Understanding: (What do I want students to understand?) Unit Key Understanding: (Kid friendly)

Students will understand how scientific experiments can be used to determine the Probability refers to how likely it is that a certain outcome will
probability of a successful trial, regardless of the topic at hand. Through occur. We can use experimentation to determine the
experimentation and data analysis, students will be able to determine which likeliness that a water bottle flip will land successfully.
combination of factors has the highest probability for success.

Standards Addressed in this Unit: (Know)

2.1.HS.F.3 - Apply quantitative reasoning to choose and Interpret units and scales in formulas, graphs and data displays.
CC.2.4.HS.B.5 - Make inferences and justify conclusions based on sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies.
CC.2.4.HS.B.1 - Summarize, represent, and interpret data on a single count or measurement variable.

Assessments: (Do)
Formative:
Questioning
Discussion
Procedure Development and Writing
Experimentation and Data Collection
Data Analysis and Conclusion Writing
Visual Representations

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Developing and Conducting Appropriate
Experiments to Determine Probability

Summative:
Water Bottle Selection with Justification
Final Bottle Probability
Performance Tasks:
Webbs Depth of Knowledge 1 and 2
o Recall, Define, Identify, Report, Measure, Graph, Compare, Predict, Interpret, Make Observations
Webbs Depth of Knowledge 3
o Develop a Logical Argument, Compare, Explain Phenomena in Terms of Concepts, Draw Conclusion, Hypothesize, Cite Evidence,
Investigate
Webbs Depth of Knowledge 4
o Apply Concepts, Design, Create, Analyze
Possible Student Misconceptions: Real World Connections:
1) Probability is not definite. If a water bottle successfully lands times, it 1) Probability - statistics
may not always land times. If we increase the number of trials, we a. Weather Reports (60% chance of rain)
increase the accuracy of our results. b. Sports Strategies
2) We can only test one variable at a time so that we are only measuring c. Board Games & Card Games
the effect of the desired variable. The other variables must remain 2) Experimentation - Used to report information about a
constant to ensure that the experiment is valid. given topic (Research shows that students retain only
20% of information that is told to them.)

Remediation Ideas: (How can I support those who need extra help?)
1) Working with peers
Enrichment Ideas: (How will I deepen learning for students
who have mastered essential skills?)
1) Have students develop their own experiment through
which they determine the probability of some
outcome.

Constant Error
Academic Vocabulary: Scientific Procedure
Probability Hypothesize
Factor/Variable Accuracy
Independent/Dependent Validity

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Developing and Conducting Appropriate
Experiments to Determine Probability

Daily Lesson Plans:

Lesson #1: P
robability and Experimentation
Student Learning
o Essential Question: How can we figure out what works best for successfully flipping a water bottle filled with water?
o Concept: Experimentation can be used to determine the effect of a particular variable on a specific outcome.
o Key Understanding: Experimentation is a valid tool for determining the probability for a successful outcome.
o Mastery Criteria: Students will understand that through the manipulation of variables and constants, we can develop a test to determine
what effects the success of a bottle flip.
o Assessment(s): Classroom discussion.
Teacher Tasks
o Activating Strategy:
Have students draw a picture of what their ideal water bottle would look like (before testing anything). This plays on previous experience and
research that they may have done (i.e. seeing videos, reading articles). Then have a discussion regarding their ideas leading into the
discussion of different factors/variables.
o Teaching Strategies:
While working the classroom discussion, set classroom norms for discussion (we all listen, respond, etc).
o Summarizing Strategies:
Ask students to go home and observe the amount of probability all around them. Find an example and bring it to the next class. (i.e. Car
insurance - 15% or more)

Lesson #2: Inquiring Minds: Experiment Development

Student Learning
o Essential Question: Can students develop logical procedures such that the experiment is valid and accurate?
o Concept: The process that scientists use to learn about the natural world is characterized by:
asking questions that can be answered through investigations,
designing and carrying out scientific investigations,
thinking logically to make relationships between evidence and explanations, and
communicating procedures and explanations.
o Key Understanding: In order to run a successful experiment, one must design an appropriate set of procedures.
o Mastery Criteria: After completing this lesson, students will be able to:
Identify the included variables as constant, independent, or dependent.
Develop a list of procedures that takes into account the minimization of error (i.e. holding variables constant to test only one var.)
Follow their procedure outline to construct a successful experiment.
o Assessment(s): Informal Questioning
Teacher Tasks
o Activating Strategy: Students must consider what their group is trying to test and must construct a list of procedures that will test just that.

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o Teaching Strategies: Talk about variability...If we change the water level and we change the bottle, how do we know if the higher
probability was a result of the change in bottle or water level?
o Summarizing Strategies: Ask students what scientists may consider when they develop experiments. (i.e. If a pharmaceutical company is
testing a product meant for both men and women, should the sample be just men, just women, or equal amounts?) What other constants do
scientists consider?
Lesson #3: Successful Experiment Conduction
Student Learning
o Essential Question: Can students follow their procedures and conduct a successful experiment?
o Key Understanding: If written appropriately, experiments can be followed to test the desired effect.
o Mastery Criteria: Students will be able to perform successful experiments and gather data.
o Assessment(s): Experiment Conduction
Teacher Tasks
o Activating Strategy: Students will conduct their constructed experiments. When students are working in groups they will assign roles to
each person (i.e. flipper, data collector, time-manager, scribe).
o Teaching Strategies: Students will be working in groups and teachers circulate to help keep experiments focused and on-task.
o Summarizing Strategies: Students will consider how they will display their findings to make it clear for other groups to interpret.
Lesson #4: Data Analysis
Student Learning
o Essential Question: Can students analyze their own data to determine a conclusion and report their findings.

o Concept: Students will analyze their own data and determine what their results show.
o Key Understanding: Students will be able to conclude whether or not changing their variable had a positive or negative effect on the water
bottle flips success.
o Mastery Criteria: Students will create a visual representation that summarizes their findings.
o Assessment(s): Visual representation summarizing results.
Teacher Tasks
o Activating Strategy: Students analyze their own data.
o Teaching Strategies: Students can use laptops, posters, etc. to create an appropriate representation for their findings. This should be easy
for other to interpret, so teachers may ask clarifying questions to encourage groups to add more information.
o Summarizing Strategies: Students will briefly explain their findings to the other groups in the class.
Lesson #5: Data Analysis Continued
Student Learning
o Essential Question: Can students analyze the data of others to determine a conclusion and create an ideal product?

o Concept: Students will analyze the other groups data and determine what selection of variables will lead to the most successful bottle flip.
o Key Understanding: Students will be able to draw from other conclusions to create a scenario with a probability for success.
o Mastery Criteria: Students create ideal water bottle.
o Assessment(s): Students create their ideal water bottle along with a justification for their selection. What data did they use to make their

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Experiments to Determine Probability

decisions on bottle, water level, and flipping position?

Teacher Tasks
o Activating Strategy: Students analyze other data.
o Teaching Strategies: Students can read and analyze the results of the other groups to design their ideal water bottle. They will also need to
supply justification so teachers may ask questions that encourage them to explain their selection.
o Summarizing Strategies: Groups will submit their selection as it will be important for them to use the same choices in the next class.
Lesson #6: Competition
Student Learning
o Essential Question: Can students determine the probability of their ideal water bottles success?
o Concept: Students will put their choice bottles to the test and determine its ultimate probability. What happens as the number of trials goes
up?
o Key Understanding: Groups will be able to determine that their water bottle has a probability for success. The more they test it, the more
accurate their probability becomes.
o Mastery Criteria: Increased number of trials leads to increased accuracy.
o Assessment(s): Students will report their bottles final probability and explain what errors (if any) were made? How would they improve their
experiment? How could you improve the accuracy or validity?
Teacher Tasks
o Activating Strategy: Students calculate their final bottles probability for success and look for sources of error?
o Teaching Strategies: Ask students to think about accuracy - How can we make our test more accurate?
o Summarizing Strategies: Groups will submit their calculated probability along with their sources of error and possible improvements (for
accuracy and validity).

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