G ARIN H ART Y ANG 1724 Connecticut Avenue, N W

Washington, DC 20009
Tel: (202) 234 -5570
RESEARCH GROUP Fax: (202) 232 -8134
www.hartresearch.com
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
DATE: February 14, 2017
RE: Recent Surveys Showing Chris Kennedy with Strong
Prospects to Take Back the Illinois Governors Seat
On behalf of Kennedy for Illinois, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted two statewide surveys
among Democratic primary (602 likely voters) and general election voters (601
likely voters).

In summary, Governor Rauner has high negatives and is extremely vulnerable to

defeat by a Democratic candidate next year, while Chris Kennedy starts the
Democratic primary with a lead over JB Pritzker that expands when primary voters
hear POSITIVE descriptions of both candidates.

General Election. As Bruce Rauner approaches his reelection, Illinois voters

strongly reject his central premise that he has brought change to Springfield and
turned the states fortunes. An overwhelming 82% of voters surveyed say that
Illinois is off on the wrong track, which suggests that the electorate is looking to
make a change in leadership.

And in fact, Bruce Rauner struggles to reach the 40% positive threshold on
measurements that are critical to an incumbents reelection. Fewer than one third
of voters rate Rauners performance as governor in positive terms, while two thirds
give him a negative job rating, including a plurality (37%) who rank his
performance as poorthe lowest rating.

As a result, when matched against an unnamed Democrat in the generic trial heat
for governor, Rauner ALREADY trails: 46% vote for the Democrat, 40% vote for
Rauner. Moreover, a deeper analysis of the 14% of voters who are undecided
paints a pessimistic picture for the governor: fully 88% of undecided voters give
Rauner a NEGATIVE job rating, and in terms of partisanship Democrats outnumber
Republicans by nearly three to one.

In other words, 40% or thereabouts, is closer to the CEILING than the floor for
Governor Rauner, and therefore Democrats have excellent prospects of defeating
Rauner in the November 2018 election.

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Democratic Primary. Chris Kennedy starts the Democratic primary with a lead
that is nearly double JB Pritzkers, although, unsurprisingly, a significant proportion
of voters are undecided at this early stage of the election:

However, Chris Kennedys potential to grow his electoral support once he

communicates his background and record is evidenced when we provide voters with
positive descriptions of BOTH candidates.

Descriptions of Candidates for Governor

CHRIS KENNEDY is a father, businessman, and civic leader whose experience
includes serving as president of the Merchandise Mart, one of the largest
commercial buildings in the world. Under his leadership, for the first time more
companies have opened new offices at the mart than anywhere else in Illinois. He
is currently leading a billion-dollar real estate development that has resulted in
hundreds of construction jobs. He served as chairman of the University of Illinois
Board of Trustees, and with his wife, founded and leads a nonprofit hunger relief
organization. He is the son of Robert and Ethel Kennedy, and has lived in Illinois
for the past thirty years.

J.B. PRITZKER is an entrepreneur, investor, and philanthropist. For nearly two

decades, he has been a leader in promoting Illinois as a stronger technology
center, investing in and helping start more than one hundred high-tech
companies, and founding Chicago's digital startup center. He leads the Pritzker
Family Foundation, which is one of the nation's leading supporters of high-quality
early childhood education, and funds programs and research that serve Chicago's
children living in poverty. His family founded the Hyatt hotel chain, and have
been strong and early supporters of President Obama and the Clintons. Pritzkers
sister serves as secretary of commerce in the Obama administration.

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G ARIN H ART Y ANG RESEARCH GROUP
After Democratic primary voters hear the candidates backgrounds, Chris Kennedy
INCREASES his lead over JB Pritzker:

Democratic Primary Trial Heats for Governor

Chris Kennedy JB Pritzker Undecided

Initial Trial Heat Informed Trial Heat

51%
48%
+22
34%
+16
29%

20%
18%

Chris Kennedys appeal in the informed trial heat is broad and deep: he wins by
nearly 20 points (49% to 31%) in the Chicago media market and by nearly three to
one (61% to 21%) Downstate. Kennedy leads 52% to 26% among union
households, 51% to 29% among white voters, and wins among African-American
voters by better than two to one (58% to 25%).

While Chris Kennedy faces the challenge of potentially running against two
extremely wealthy opponents in the Democratic primary and the general election,
our survey shows that an impressive number of voters are drawn to Chriss strong
record of public service (which includes helping found Top Box Foods and serving as
chair of the University of Illinois Board of Trustees) and his business background as
head of the Merchandise Mart. Further, our polling demonstrates that Chris has the
ability to energize and motivate core elements of the Democratic base while also
appealing to swing voters outside the Chicago area, making him perhaps the
strongest Democratic candidate to defeat Bruce Rauner.

(This memorandum is based on two statewide surveys conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang, the political
division of Hart Research Associates, between December 19 and 22, 2016. The sample size for the
DEMOCRATIC primary survey was 602 likely voters, with a margin of error of +4.1%, and the sample
size for the GENERAL election survey was 601 likely voters, with a similar MOE. BOTH surveys were
representative of a statewide electorate, and had a mix of landlines and cell phones.)

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