Food for a Healthy Planet

By 2050, about 4.4 billion people of the worlds

projected 10 billion people will suffer from chronic
water shortages.
Population Action International,
Washington, D.C. 1997

Water is taking over from oil as the likeliest

cause of conflict in the Middle East.
A. Darwish. Geneva Conference on
Environment and Quality of Life, June 1994

The extremes of water are going to be much more

unmanageable, both drought extremes and risk of floods.
K. Trenberth Director of Climate Analysis
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Colorado
2 February 2007, summarizing IPCC report
 Where the Fresh water is?

Fresh water is less than 3% of global water

Global Increases
in Population and Water Usage

(from Gleick, P.H. 1998. The Worlds Water)

 Water Shortages

Between 1950 and 2000, world water use tripled

Some 70% of water use is for irrigation
Aquifer depletion is causing water tables to fall and wells to
go dry
175 million Indians, 130 million Chinese are fed with grain
produced by overpumping
Since the overpumping of aquifers is occurring in many countries
more or less simultaneously, the depletion of aquifers and the
resulting harvest cutbacks could come at roughly the same time,
creating potentially unmanageable food scarcity.

Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand

 25% of planets surface devoted to food
production (more than the worlds
forested area)

Impossible to separate agricultural

practices from the health of rivers,
wetlands, forests, and the living
environment

Our food choices matches transportation

as the human activity with the greatest
impact on the environment
[Hoekstra & Chapagain, 2008]
A Growing Appetite for Meat

Global meat production has

increased more than fivefold
World Meatsince 1950 1950-2002
Production,
300
250
Million Tons

200
150
100
50
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Source: FAO
 Projected meat consumption in developed
and developing countries
350

300

250
Million tonnes

200

150

100

50

0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2015 2030 2050

Developed Contries Developing Countries

Source: Livestock's Long Shadow: UNFAO; 2006

 GDP and Animal protein consumption
(Includes animal and fish products)

1600

1400
France
Calories per capita per day

1200

Australia
1000

800
Pakistan China

600 Japan

Korea
400
Vietnam Thailand
200 India
Sri Lanka
Indonesia
0 Bangladesh
$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000
GDP per capita ($US ppp)
 A Growing Appetite for Meat

If the trend continues

Projected Meat Consumption in
2020
100
100
80
Kg per equivalent
person 60 to:
1 side of beef
per year 40
39
20 1 pig

0
Developing
1 Industrial
2 50 chickens
countries countries
Source: Delgado et al., 1998
Why is there a controversy over using grain
to feed cattle?

From: Time, November 8, 1999

themselves

Many more people could

be fed by the grain used
to feed the cattle than
can be fed by the cattle
themselves

This is because
productive energy is
diminished with each
trophic level
 The amount of energy needed to produce a single
hamburger is enough to power a small car 30 kilometers
 Food production requires energy
Energy for growth, processing, packaging, transport
Currently supplied through mainly fossil fuels (oil, gas etc)
Meat in particular is energy intensive

Daily per capita energy input to the US food system, by food group and
production phase, excluding household energy use (Beyond food miles by Michael
Bomford http://www.postcarbon.org/article/273686-beyond-food-miles).
Global Problems:
Food Security

Fuel Security

161 trillion litres crude oil

reserves
3.8 trillion litres per year usage

or 120,000 liters per second

 Global NOW
Energy
Background

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030

NATURE, 26. Jan. 2012. David King: UK Government 2000-2007.
 Peak Oil

The 20 largest oil fields were discovered between 1917 and 1979

Since 1981, oil extraction has exceeded new discoveries by a widening

margin

Most of the easily recovered oil is already pumped

Once oil production turns downward, countries will
compete for a shrinking supply. It will be far more
difficult to expand energy-intensive agricultural
production when the price of oil is rising and the supply
is declining.
Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Brasil2
 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX VS. ENERGY USE

From A Pasternack LLNL Rep. No. UCLR-ID 140773 (Oct. 2000)

 The State of Our People
We now have more than 25 million Environmental Refugees as a
result of drought, soil erosion, desertification, etc.
This is more than war, political, and religious persecution combined.
Negative impacts where food insecurity high

Source: FAO State of Food Insecurity 2006

Poor families spend
up to 50-70%
of income on food
Access is critical to food
security
Multiple Exposure: Food insecurity arises from
overlapping and interacting stressors

12

Misselhorn 2005 Global Environmental Change

 Soaring Food Prices
Mid-2006 to mid-2008:
world grain and soybean Wheat
prices roughly tripled
Global impact, but the Prices
poor were most affected
(CBOT)
Poorest often
spend 50-70% of
income on food Rice
For low-income Prices
people in
developing
(CBOT)
countries buying Source: futures.tradingcharts.com

grain directly, if
 Hunger and the Planet
What does hunger have to do with the planet?
A hungry planet is not a sustainable planet
Hungry people are poor
They depend on natural resources
They cause environmental degradation
Their livelihood is threatened
Poverty eradication and sustainable management of
the planet must go hand-in-hand
 Food: The Weak Link?
Food shortages led to collapse of Sumerian, Mayan,
and many other early civilizations
Could food be the weak link for our 21st century
global civilization?
We are failing to reverse trends undermining food
security while adding new stresses
Accumulating problems and their consequences may
overwhelm more and more governments,
accelerating spread of state failure

Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Steven Allan

 A hungry world is a dangerous world. Without food,
people have only three op>ons: They riot, they emigrate
or they die. None of these are acceptable op>ons
Jose?e Sheeran, ExecuCve Director World Food ProgramFAO, 2009

FAO
 Looming Stresses

Peak Oil Water Shortages Climate Change

foreshadow further food production constraints,

price rises, and increased political unrest unless dealt
with.
Negative impacts where food insecurity high

Source: FAO State of Food Insecurity 2006

 You are what you eat?

The Four Seasons, Guiseppe Arcimboldo,

1573
48
CVD - Atherosclerosis
Geopolitics of Food Scarcity

FARMING ABROAD

Potential for Conflict