Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2 Lectures
Feeding a hungry planet
Impacts of climate change on global
food production
Contact
s.barlow@unimelb.edu.au
Rising Global Food Prices
(FAO 2014)
What is driving this ?
Mega Trends for Global Food Security
Climate Change
2C+ warming by 2050 (lecture 2 )
Population
we have been here before !
Have we enough food for
the future ?
Malthus Club of Rome FAO
A consideration for the past 2
centuries since the industrial
revolution
Doomsday predictions
Thomas Malthus
Club of Rome
Current United Nations
Food and Agricultural
Organisation FAO
Animal Protein Demand
1400
Animal protein intake (Kcals/capita/day)
1200
1000
Australia
China
800
600
Japan
400
India
200
Indonesia
0
$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000
Biodiesel (canola) and Ethanol ( sugarcane and corn ) produced on prime agricultural
land that otherwise would produce food
We have been here before
Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)
Essay on the Principle of Population (1798)
The Club of Rome is a global think tank and centre of innovation and initiative.
It brings together scientists, economists, businessmen, international high civil
servants, heads of state and former heads of state.
Global Grain Stores
lowest levels since start of the green revolution
Total World Grains Supply days
Green Revolution
Days of supply
Dr Norman Borlaug
US Plant Breeder
Joined Rockefeller Foundation -1944
Assigned to the the International Wheat and Maize Improvement
Centre (CIMMYT) in Mexico
Led the production of new high yielding varieties of wheat and corn
Awarded in the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970
Green
Revolu+on
Increased
Wheat
Yields
5
+mes
in
30
years
Green revolution increased food production
but increased Nitrogen(N),Phosphorus(P) ,Water use
N fertiliser
No fertiliser
Land, water and fertilizer as well as productivity increases (TFP) important to Green
Revolution success
Resources for the next greener revolution
Can Northern Australia Contribute ?
The Productivity Challenge
Annual Productivity gains necessary to meet rising demand
1979-88 = 1.5% 1988-97 = 1.6% 1997-06 = 1.9% 2006-15=2.6%
Biofuel Demand
4.0 160
3.0 120
2.0 80
1.0 40
0.0 0
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015
Year
Doubling vitamin-A
consumption among those most at risk of deficiency and its
devastating
consequences
Lecture Summary