UNIVERSITI UTARA MALAYSIA

COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES

TEST SPESIFICATION TABLE (TST)

COURSE CODE : SQQS3033

COURSE : BUSINESS FORECASTING
TIME : 150 MINUTES (2 HOURS 30 MINUTES)
TYPE OF QUESTION : STRUCTURE
NO. OF QUESTION : 5 QUESTIONS

1.0 LEARNING OUTCOMES

Upon completion of the course, students are able to

1.1 Identify the forecasting process. (C1, A1, P1)

1.2 Identify the components of time series. (C1, A1, P1)
1.3 Fit a variety of models to a time series data. (C3, A3, P4)
1.4 Select and apply the most appropriate model for a given time series. (C6, A5, P5)

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 Learning Outcomes (LO)
Basic level Intermediate level Advanced level
2 questions (40%) 1.5 questions (30%) 1.5 questions (30%)
Contents (5 Topic) Knowledge Comprehension Application Analysis Synthesis Evaluation
0.4 0.3 0.3 1.0

1.0 Introduction To Forecasting (0.2)

1.1 Introduction
1.2 Forecasting in management
1.3 Forecasting techniques 1a (1.0)
1.4 Forecasting process 1b
0.4 0.3 0.3 1.0

2.0 Understanding Time Series (0.2)

2.1 Definition of time series
2.2 Component of time series 2a (1.0)
2.3 Decomposition method 2b
0.4 0.3 0.3 1.0

3.0 Univariate Modelling (0.2)

Techniques
3.1 General classification of single
variable models
3.2 Nave models
3.3 Methods of averages:
simple average, moving average,
double moving average,
3.4 Exponential smoothing
techniques:
single exponential smoothing,
double exponential smoothing,

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 Holts method, Adaptive 3 (1.0)
Response Rate Exponential
Smoothing (ARRES), Holt-
Winters method
0.4 0.3 0.3 1.0

4.0 Time Series Regression (0.2)

4a (1.0)
4.1 Building a linear model
4.2 Assumptions underlying
regression analysis 4b
4.3 Evaluating the accuracy of the 4c
linear model
4.4 Forecasting of linear trend
4.5 Building a curve linear model
4.6 Evaluating the accuracy of the
curve linear model
4.7 Forecasting of curve linear trend
0.4 0.3 0.3 1.0

5.0 The Box-Jenkins Methodology (0.2)

5.1 Stages in the ARIMA model 5a (1.0)
development
5.2 Assumption of Box-Jenkins
methodology
5.3 Basic models of Box-Jenkins
methodology:
Non-seasonal and seasonal 5b
models
5.4 Model identification 5c
5.5 Estimation and validation 5d
5.6 Model application

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TOTAL 2.0 1.5 1.5 (5)