Tourism Management 32 (2011) 158e171

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Tourism Management
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/tourman

The establishment of a rapid natural disaster risk assessment model for the
tourism industryq
Chung-Hung Tsai a, Cheng-Wu Chen b, *
a
The Center of Information Teaching, Taiwan Hospitality & Tourism College, No.268 Chungshin St, Shoufong Township, Hualien County, Taiwan, ROC
b
Institute of Maritime Information and Technology, National Kaohsiung Marine University, No. 482, Jhongjhou 3rd Road, Cijin District, Kaohsiung City 80543, Taiwan, ROC

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: At the current time, the Taiwan government is aggressively promoting projects, such as the so-called
Received 3 March 2009 Double Tourist Plan, designed to encourage the development of the sightseeing related business.
Accepted 25 May 2010 Operators in the tourist industry hope to construct facilities at or near scenic areas, which, given their
special geography, are often adjacent to the mountains or the ocean. Unfortunately these are also the
Keywords: areas that most often experience natural disasters. This has a negative impact on the tourism industry.
Tourism industry
The centralization of tourist facilities, leading to the gathering of large numbers of visitors during the
Disaster risk management
holiday seasons, can place people in danger. In other words, tourism operators in the Taiwan region face
Environmental tourism
a high risk of natural disasters. It is difcult to assess such risks. Most of the existing models for
catastrophe risk assessment consume huge amounts of time and are costly to use, so are more commonly
applied for assessment at high-value facilities (such science-based industrial parks), rather than by the
tourism industry, where economic factors are of greater concern. It is necessary to develop a simple and
rapid assessment method that will allow ordinary business owners to carry out comprehensive risk
analysis of tourist facilities. Thus, in this study, we explore various theories related to different kinds of
natural disaster risk analysis mechanisms, with the goal of establishing a rapid risk assessment model
suited to the tourism industry that can be used to quickly analyze disaster-forming characteristics and
risk weaknesses in local regions. Furthermore, we incorporate an expert weighting process for assigning
weightings for natural disaster risk index assessment. This method can help tourism asset owners
prepare for the worst, and be capable of responding appropriately if and when such an event occurs.
Good planning can effectively reduce the loss and risks associated with natural disasters and allow
recovery work to commence sooner.
2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
1.1. Impact of natural disasters on tourism
Taiwans special geographic environment and changeable
climate combine to give it many unique and beautiful types of
scenery, which are valuable natural sightseeing resources.
However, its special geographic environment (Taiwan is located in
the circum-pacic seismic zone and subtropical monsoon zone)
also makes the area prone to frequent natural disasters. For
q The authors are grateful for the kind assistance of Prof. Chris Ryan, Chief-editor
of Tourism Management, and the constructive suggestions of the anonymous
reviewers all of which has led to the making of several corrections and suggestions
that have greatly aided us in improving the presentation of this paper.
* Corresponding author. Tel.: 8867 8100888x5310.
E-mail address: chengwu@mail.nkmu.edu.tw (C.-W. Chen).
example, there are more than 200 detectable earthquakes and 4.6
typhoons annually (Chiang, 2003). Furthermore, the exposure to
natural disaster risk has increased over the past two decades along
with rapid economic development and urbanization, obviously
increasing potential risks to the tourism industry from catastro-
phes such as earthquakes, typhoons, oods and so on. The rise in
risk of loss for the tourism industry could have a serious impact on
the social and economic stability of the whole nation. According to
the Natural Disaster HotspotseA Global Risk Analysis published
by the World Bank in 2005 (World Bank, 2005), at least 73% of the
land area and population in the Taiwan region are exposed to the
threat of more than three types of natural disaster risks. This gives
them the dubious honor of being the rst in the world in terms of
disaster risk (see Table 1). Moreover, according to the statistics
released by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)
about the occurrence of catastrophes world-wide from 1950 to
2008 and the corresponding economic losses, the number of

0261-5177/$ e see front matter 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.tourman.2010.05.015
 C.-H. Tsai, C.-W. Chen / Tourism Management 32 (2011) 158e171 159

Table 1
Ranking of countries exposed to the threat of more than 3 types of natural disaster risks.

Country Percentage of Percentage of Max. number Country Percentage of Percentage of Max. number
total area population of hazards total area population of hazards
exposed exposed exposed exposed
Taiwan 73.1 73.1 4 Vietnam 8.2 5.1 3
Costa Rica 36.8 41.1 4 Solomon Islands 7.0 4.9 3
Vanuatu 28.8 20.5 3 Nepal 5.3 2.6 3
Philippines 22.3 36.4 5 El Salvador 5.1 5.2 3
Guatemala 21.3 40.8 5 Tajikistan 5.0 1.0 3
Ecuador 13.9 23.9 5 Panama 4.4 2.9 3
Chile 12.9 54.0 4 Nicaragua 3.0 22.2 3
Japan 10.5 15.3 4

Data sources: The World Bank and Columbia University (2005).

catastrophes around the world and the corresponding economic
loss has increased 3-fold in the last 30 years. The number of
people inuenced has increased even more sharply (see Figs. 1
and 2). The features that characterize the development of the
tourism industry in Taiwan, such as regional centralization, the
gathering of large numbers in relatively remote areas, and dif-
culty of access to these areas also increase the risk faced in cases of
extreme natural disasters.
Taiwan is located in the circum-pacic earthquake belt and
historically, has suffered from at least one devastating earthquake
almost every decade. The most recent event occurred on 21
September, 1999, when the ChieChi Earthquake struck central
Taiwan, rupturing the Chelongpu fault (Yeh, Loh, & Tsai, 2006). The
earthquake, 7.3 on the Richter scale, killed 2400 people, injured
8000, and left about 100,000 homeless (Mao, Ding, & Lee, 2010).
Similarly, in 2009, the Morakot typhoon swept across Taiwan,
inicting heavy losses on the tourism industry. Recently, the rapid
development of the economy, increased tourism, the growth of the
traveling population and the opening of tourist facilities in remote
locations has increased exposure to the risk of natural disasters,
which increases the risk of the number of casualties and economic
loss. This could have a huge impact on the development of the
economics of tourism. In other words, tourism demand can uc-
tuate drastically, and economic losses are inevitable. Wang (2009)
has determined, in an investigation of the impact of natural
disasters on tourism, that they do signicantly affect the tourism
industry.
For example, following the ChieChi earthquake, international
tourism to Taiwan dropped by 15% from September to December,
1999 (Huan, Beaman, & Shelby, 2004; Huang & Min, 2002; Mao
et al., 2010; TBT, 2000). Mao et al. proposed using regression
analysis to illustrate the tourist arrival recovery patterns based on
catastrophe theory. Huang and Min used a forecasting approach to
show that in 2001, international tourism had still not fully recov-
ered, even though there had been large expenditures on infra-
structure reconstruction. Forecasts of recovery status have been
carried out utilizing the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving
average model. Time series and BoxeJenkins models are common
methods for analyzing data related to timing. How to improve the
infrastructure for the tourism industry based on risk evaluation
needs to be discussed further. Additionally, despite the need for
study on tourism and natural disasters, only limited progress has
been made in the analysis of disasters, and planning for such
occurrences in the industry is insufcient (Faulkner & Vikulov,
2001). Crisis management plans are often only developed in
response to a particular disaster and development occurs with
varying degrees of speed and effort.
Of the various types of natural disasters, earthquakes are one of
the most serious, unpredictable and unpreventable (Vere-Jones,
1995). The occurrence of a disastrous earthquake places tourist-

Fig. 1. Occurrence of catastrophe risk around the world from 1950 to 2008. Data source: United Nations Environment Program (2008).
160 C.-H. Tsai, C.-W. Chen / Tourism Management 32 (2011) 158e171

Fig. 2. Loss resulting from catastrophe risk around the world from 1950 to 2008. Data source: United Nations Environment Program (2008).

related facility providers and destinations in a particularly difcult 1.2. Need for risk assessment tools in the tourism industry
position, faced with the challenges of declining numbers of visitors
and falling revenues as well as recovery costs. Certainly tourist asset The objective of this study is to examine how the tourism
administrators would be better able cope with such challenges if industry is affected by natural disasters, in particular earthquakes,
they had guidelines for appropriate action in place before anything typhoons and oods, and how it could to better prepare for future
untoward had happened. Disaster response planning would appear occurrences by risk management. Huang, Tseng, and Petrick (2007)
to be of signicant importance for the tourism industry. recently proposed an innovative integrated crisis management plan
National and international crises can have huge negative for restoration of the tourism industry in Taiwan after severe
economic consequences (Glaesser, 2003). Glaesser (2003) devel- damage caused by several types of natural disasters. They inte-
oped a theory based on recent international events, and proposed grated and merged similar life cycle phases into an innovative
actions that could be taken to encourage better understanding by model which included both proactive and reactive strategies for
the consumer, as well as appropriate economic and environmental management plans before, during and after disasters. The aim was
reactions, that should help the businesses involved be better to restore Taiwans tourism industry. Although it is argued that
prepared for such events and know how to handle their business in there is need for a strategic approach to crises and disasters, there
times of crisis. There have been numerous other works focused on seems to be no study providing such an approach for the formu-
risk in tourism published over the last couple of decades. Barton lation of a rapid risk evaluation strategy for the tourism industry.
(1994) has suggested that everyone, from senior management The most important issue at the present time for tourism
down to receptionists, should have a predetermined role to play in operation and development is how to decrease the loss arising from
an anticipated crisis. A well thought-out crisis plan can help natural disasters and transfer the risk. In general, there are two
manage response and facilitate damage control. Drabek (1995) has strategies to lower the potential risk. One is loss prevention and the
argued that the best way for tourist business executives to handle other is to transfer the risk via nancial tools such as disaster
disaster planning and response is to plan appropriate actions, resist insurance. The focus in this study is the development of a set of
the denial response, arrange to have a single person in charge, rapid assessment methods that would help operators in the tourist
improve employeeecustomer communication, anticipate the needs industry minimize natural disaster risk.
of special populations, and recognize family priorities, as well as
facilitate good media relations. Sonmez (1998) has noted that
terrorism and political instability can also have an impact on
tourism. In a study based upon tourist arrival statistics in Israel,
Mansfeld (1999) developed several principles for tourism
management during crises. These principles are designed to
substantially reduce economic and social damage in the wake of
security situations. A further step towards providing a framework
for analyzing tourism disasters has been taken by Faulkner (1999)
who has also put forth both a generic model and a set of princi-
ples for analyzing and developing tourism disaster management
strategies (2001). Faulkner and Vikulov (2001) later developed
a more rened model for tourism disaster management. They
carried out an actual case study on the Australia Day ood that took
place in Katherine, Australia in 1998. Faulkner (2001) has devel-
oped a disaster management framework that synthesizes the above
contributions with those of other elds. This was further rened by
Faulkner and Vikulov (2001). Fig. 3. Primary approaches for the assessment of catastrophe risk.
 C.-H. Tsai, C.-W. Chen / Tourism Management 32 (2011) 158e171 161

Table 2
Setting weights for determination of the degree of hazard due to natural disasters for the tourism industry.

Item Disaster characteristics Impact factors Weighting Weight

setting
LWi MWi HWi
Assessment on Typhoon and Physical Characteristics Geological conditions (W a) 0.297 0.348 0.417 a 35
Flood Risks Indices of Disasters
Sensitivity Characteristics Existing building conditions (W b) 0.179 0.197 0.215 b 20
of Loss Existing social and economic 0.048 0.052 0.075 g5
conditions (W g)
Conditions of typhoon and ood 0.174 0.203 0.342 d 20
prevention (W d)
Characteristics of Disaster Conditions of Refuge and Disaster-Relief 0.086 0.096 0.145 3 10
Prevention/Relief (W 3)
Risk management strategies (W z) 0.094 0.104 0.207 z 10
Assessment on Earthquake Physical Characteristics of Geological conditions (W a) 0.305 0.346 0.406 a 35
Risk Index Disasters
Sensitivity Characteristics Existing building conditions (W b) 0.187 0.201 0.215 b 20
of Loss Existing social and economic conditions 0.145 0.151 0.075 g 15
(W g)
Conditions of re risk avoidance (W d) 0.087 0.102 0.342 d 10
Characteristics of Disaster Conditions of refuge and disaster-relief 0.093 0.105 0.145 3 10
Prevention/Relief (W 3)
Risk management strategies (W z) 0.084 0.095 0.207 z 10
C.I. < 0.1 and LWi denotes the minimum of the three elements composing a row vector of fuzzy weights; MWi denotes the medium of the three elements composing a row
vector of fuzzy weights; HWi denotes the maximum of three elements composing a row vector of fuzzy weights.

Currently, there are few studies focusing on disaster risk possible weaknesses of risk management measures can be explored.
assessment in the tourism industry. Although possible damage can The purpose is to provide tourism asset owners with a tool to obtain
be fairly precisely predicted with a detailed evaluation model (Tsai a quick understanding of the characteristics of possible disasters in the
& Chen, 2010), this type of modeling takes a huge amount of time environments where they are located, and to help them make plans
and money, so is not practical for disaster risk assessment for for efcient natural disaster risk management strategies.
ordinary tourism facilities. It is more useful for the disaster risk
assessment of special and large-scale facilities (such as theme 2. Research methodology
parks, international tourist hotels, or other high-value facilities).
Therefore, on the basis of economic considerations, there has to be 2.1. Catastrophe assessment for the tourism industry
a simple and quick method for assessment of disaster risk, which
could to be used for assessing tourism facilities constructed for It becomes clear that to assess the inuence of natural disasters
a variety of different purposes. on the tourism industry (e.g., frequency, scale and loss level), one
Currently, the most widely used method for disaster risk assess- needs to start with a disaster risk analysis process, usually using
ment in the industry is the Earthquake Damage Evaluation (ATC-13) a disaster risk assessment model (Tsai & Chen, 2010). The primary
developed by the Applied Technology Council (ATC) in 1998. This approaches for the assessment of catastrophe risk currently in use,
method uses questionnaires to collect knowledge and experience domestically and internationally, are shown in Fig. 3. Catastrophe
from experts in related elds. However, this method needs revisions risk assessment can be achieved with the simplest of methods, such
before evaluating the tourism industry. It should also be noted that the as the utilization of historical incidents to create a hazard distri-
environmental impact of tourism and the risk of natural disasters bution chart, or with the most complicated methods, such as the
differ with locations. It is necessary to integrate ideas from a variety of complete probability assessment method (Dong, 1995).
elds such as tourism, engineering, earth sciences and the insurance The most common risk assessment methods include Hazard
industry to provide rapid disaster risk assessment for the tourism Mapping (Using Past Events) and the Check Point method proposed
industry. This risk assessment index can be used to improve assess- by Tsai and Chen (2010). The Check Point method is applied in this
ment efciency. With it, the possible impact of a disaster at a particular study. The conrmation of the related tourism disaster risk indexes
location can be assessed in a short time. Furthermore, the properties is done with the fuzzy delphi method, an expert survey method.
of the disasters to which a particular environment is subject and The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and similarity aggregation
method are used to calculate the relative weights of the impact
Table 3 factors for each type of disaster, from which the key inuential
Threshold hazard indices for earthquakes.
factors and the weight of degree of the hazard are determined.
Degree of Hazard Description
hazard index
2.2. Risk assessment index results
D 1314e1500 Serious Buildings are seriously damaged
or collapse, causing discontinuance
of operations. The factors that need to be fully considered when drawing up
C 939e1313 Moderate There are cracks in the walls of the disaster prevention strategies are the type of environment or
buildings. Furniture is turned over. region in which the tourist facilities are located, and the sources
Parts of facilities are not repairable;
and characteristics of the disaster risks that they are facing. In other
some operations may be discontinued.
B 564e938 Slight Buildings are slightly damaged. words, different environmental regions have different risks and
Unsecured objects are tossed about. thus varied requirements for loss prevention. Thus, our proposed
Heavy furniture may be moved or Natural Disaster Risk Assessment Index for the Tourism Industry
slightly damaged. must satisfy the requirements for different environmental regions,
A 375e563 Safe Buildings are not damaged.
taking into consideration causes and preventive measures, and
162 C.-H. Tsai, C.-W. Chen / Tourism Management 32 (2011) 158e171
Table 4
Threshold hazard indices for typhoons and oods.
Degree of hazard Hazard index Description
D 1524e1740 Serious
C 1091e1523 Moderate
B 656e1090 Slight
A 435e655 Safe
special characteristics (see Appendix 1 (ATC-21, 1998; FEMA, 1992;
Wang, 1999; Reports of Ministry of the Interior, 2009)). The indexes
for the tourism industry are shown in Appendices 1 and 2. We
consider the factors such as the physical characteristics of the
disaster, sensitivity characteristics of the loss, and characteristics of
the disaster prevention/relief. In Appendix 1, we also refer to
related work on earthquake risks such as that proposed by Wang in
1999, the comprehensive assessment method for calculating
a buildings earthquake risk developed by FEMA-178 in 1992, the
fast assessment method for calculating a buildings earthquake risk
revealed by ATC-21 in 1998, and the design code and interpretation
of earthquake resistance for buildings proposed by domestic
researchers and published by the Ministry of the Interior in 2009.
Based on these materials and questionnaires returned from experts
in the area, we compiled the nal index. In Appendix 2, referring to
Islam and Sado (2000) and Plate (2002) we lay the foundation of
disaster characteristics for the tourism industry, such as the rein-
forcement of outdoor entertainment facilities and the deployment
of equipment. The criteria for determining the degree of hazard are
described in Appendices 3 and 4. The criteria are derived from the
questionnaire survey responses as well as a review of the literature
related to earthquake risk. The criteria for the determination of the
degree of risk from typhoons and oods are derived from the
research results and a review of the related literature (Islam & Sado,
2000; Plate, 2002). Islam and Sado (2000) utilized meteorological
information, such as hydrological parameters and accumulated
rainfall, provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) to create a hazard distribution chart, which
Fig. 4. Flow-chart of the ve-step evaluation process of disaster risk for the tourism industry.
Buildings are seriously ooded or destroyed by mudows. Major facilities do not function
and operations are discontinued.
Buildings are ooded. Parts of facilities are not repairable; some operations may be discontinued.
Buildings are slightly ooded. Furniture and decoration are slightly damaged.
Buildings are not ooded.
considers regional geological conditions and existing social and
economic conditions, to create a vulnerability distribution chart.
They then applied overlay analysis with a geographic information
system (GIS) to simulate and analyze the predicted ood depth for
an area, and estimate relative weights for hazards caused by
different ood depths. They conducted interviews with experts in
order to determine the degree of hazard for each ood depth. This
study adopts the risk assessment method for typhoons and oods
proposed by Islam and Sado (2000) to estimate the degree of
typhoon and ood hazard for the tourism industry. Further
consideration is given to the regional geological conditions and
existing social and economic conditions proposed by Plate
(2002). This helps to further understand the disaster-forming
characteristics such as existing building conditions and condi-
tions of refuge and disaster-relief. The previously-described
conditions are the basis of the indexes for rapid disaster risk
assessment for typhoon and ood used in this study. In brief, the
determination of the degree of hazard for earthquake (typhoon and
ood) risk for the tourism industry, as shown in Appendices 3 and
4, was based on the questionnaire developed using the risk
assessment indexes cited in Appendices 1 and 2. The degree of
hazard and the weights were estimated based on expert opinions
collected from the survey. Analysis was conducted using the fuzzy
Delphi analytic hierarchy process proposed by Hsu (1998) and the
relative weights of the hazard factors.
The degree of hazard ranges from high (step D) to safe
(step A), or from four points to one point, respectively. Weight
parameters (W a  W z) are assigned corresponding to
 C.-H. Tsai, C.-W. Chen / Tourism Management 32 (2011) 158e171 163

Table 5 degree of risk. Analysis was performed using the overlay analysis
Summary of data related to natural disaster risk assessment for an urban interna- module. Data entered included coordinates for the tourist targets
tional tourist hotel.
under evaluation and information from the disaster risk database
Item Contents for the areas under consideration (composed of hazard distribution
Total value of building NT$70,000,000 charts and vulnerability distribution charts).
Total value of contents NT$10,500,000
Business volume per 365 days NT$85,000,000
Classication of building construction Reinforced concrete construction 3. Case analysis
Number of oors 11 oors
Classication of building usage Commercial building 3.1. Case studyean urban international tourist hotel
Year of construction 1976
Location (longitude and latitude) 121 360 34.
23 580 30. The feasibility of the quick assessment model is veried using
a case study of the facilities of one hotel facility; see Appendix 3.
Note: To protect the privacy of the said hotel, all values listed in the above table are
approximations only. However, the facilities could include many types of hotel
construction and are expected to be sufcient for risk assessment
for all kinds of hotel facilities.
disaster causes and prevention elements, such as the Physical
Characteristics of Disasters, Sensitivity Characteristics of Loss 3.2. Background analysis of the research region
and Characteristics of Disaster Prevention/Relief. The weight
settings are described in Table 2. The weightings in Table 2 are The particular hotel selected for the single study case is located
elicited from expert opinions and each weighting comes from an in downtown Hualien City. It is situated on the southern side of
average of responses from 15 experts. We are able to estimate the Meilun Mountain adjacent to the Meilun Creek, which is a tributary
corresponding index threshold value for each hazard step from to the Hualien River, the main river owing through the region. The
the weight values drawn up using the disaster characteristics hotel was opened in October 1976. It has a main oor area of more
given in Tables 3 and 4. Tables 3 and 4 are based on the fact that than 1000 square meters, with 11 oors above ground and 2
most buildings in Taiwan are made of ferroconcrete. Therefore, underground. The building features RC construction and contains
the inuence of wind on them is rather small. The danger of 270 guest rooms, one indoor spa and one open-air SPA hydro-
typhoon and ood are mainly related to ooding and mudows. therapy bath, as well as one Chinese and one western restaurant. In
The degree of hazard from natural disasters for prime tourist addition it has extra facilities including a banquet hall that can
facilities can be estimated by comparing the calculated index serve more than 50 guests, two multi-functional conference rooms,
assessment with a threshold value. This can be used to make and 50 parking spaces. It is about 10 min from the airport and train
a fast assessment of risk prior to the establishment of prevention station. The convenience of the location and access to trans-
strategies. portation were major considerations when selecting the site for the
Fig. 4 provides a summary of the input data and the procedures hotel. Records of historic disaster and questionnaire data show that
for evaluating robustness of obtained results by following ve this hotel suffered some damage during the Hualien earthquake
steps. that occurred on 11/15 1986, the 921 Earthquake that occurred on
The ArcGIS software developed by ESRI (Environmental Systems 9/21 1999, the Minduli Typhoon that struck on 7/3 2004, and the
Research Institute) was use for analysis to estimate the potential Lunwang Typhoon on 10/2 2005.

Fig. 5. Analysis of regional disaster risk for an urban type international tourist hotel.
164 C.-H. Tsai, C.-W. Chen / Tourism Management 32 (2011) 158e171

3.3. Research design and data collection

Has established an exclusive typhoon and ood response group,

Very close to the Meilun Mountain tableland and sports eld,
Easily ooded region, adjacent to basin of the Meilun Creek
We now discuss the collection of assessment data which was

Important mechanical and electrical equipment and the

Not adjacent to side slopes No easily collapsing geology

banquet hall are situated on the rst oor; basement is

carried out with the assistance of the Hualien County Government.
A Disaster Prevention Consultative Conference for the Tourism
Industry was held in order to acquire initial common information. A

used for recreational facilities and parking lot

general data survey was then carried out through the questionnaire

for easier practice for refuge and evacuation

method, to collect all necessary feedback and information.

but without typhoon and ood insurance

The content of the expert survey includes: 1) classication as to
city tourism or remote area district tourism; 2) the factors of
inuence on possible disasters for city and remote area tourism; 3)
physical features of the disasters; 4) sensitivity features of the loss;
and 5) features of preparedness against natural disasters. Fifteen

Located in Hualien City

experts were interviewed, including ve representatives from the
industry, including high-level supervisors from tourist hotels with
expertise in hotel development and management. There were also

Explanation
ve representatives from government who had worked in disaster
prevention related organizations, and had expertise in the areas of
drafting, execution and supervising of disaster management poli-
cies. Finally there were ve representatives from the realm of
academia from different universities, with expertise in tourism and

Assessment
environmental planning, ecological sustainability, and research and
promotion of serious disaster risk management evaluation models.

result

2g
3a

12z
23b

19d

123
According to the analysis steps of the methodology, the
assessment can be conducted by the following procedure:

Conditions of Refuge
economic conditions

and Disaster-Relief
Existing social and

typhoon and ood

Risk management
Existing building
Step 1: Collect basic information for evaluation of hotel
Impact factors

Conditions of
construction and facilities.

prevention
conditions

conditions
Geological

strategies
Detailed data are shown in Table 5.

Step 2: Use the data from the spatial database to conduct

Assessment of Typhoon
and Flood Risks Indices

environment analyses with the geographic information system.

Since this hotel had already suffered losses caused by natural

disasters, management now pays a great deal of attention to
measures for disaster damage prevention. In addition to specied
data that were previously collected, we would also like to provide
Item

the hotel with the results of our various disaster risk assessments as
a reference for making future management strategies. only a small evacuation road
Adjacent to the Meilun fault

Geometrical shape of plane

sufcient water supply for

(plane-L type, front side e
and space are not so good

lacking _underearthquake
Close to re ghting unit;

Adjacent to a sports eld;

Results of natural disaster risk index assessment for an international tourist hotel.

Steps 3e4: Determine the source of factors that might inuence With re insurance only;
Located in Hualien City

a disaster, and retrieve the feedback from the environmental

disaster response
location disaster risk analysis. Collect data from local sources group and plan
and calculate the disaster risk assessment index.
with arcade)
Explanation

re ghting

Through interviews and questionnaire data, it is found that the

said international tourist hotel currently has 178 employees
(including 2 certied occupational safety specialists), and has also
prepared Lists of group members and corresponding responsi-
Assessment

bilities for hazard management for different kinds of emergency

events. With the assistance of the Rescue Ofce of the Fire ghting
result

2g
5a

12z
19b

10d

123

Department of Hualien County and the Occupational Safety

Manager of the hotel, we performed a related survey and disaster
Risk Management
Conditions of re
Existing building

risk index assessment of operations at 2:00 pm, April 12th, 2007.

Disaster-Relief
risk avoidance
Impact factors

Existing social
and economic

In fact, the hotel had already prepared a plan, the Fireghting

Conditions of
Refuge and
conditions

conditions

conditions
Geological

Strategies

Project for a Large-scale Site in November 2006, according to

requirements specied in the Fire Prevention Regulations by
government, and had already installed hardware for disaster
prevention (such as an indoor refuge and evacuation maps, re
ghting equipment, indicators, escape slings, smoke-proof masks,
Assessment of
Earthquake
Risk Index

and so on). They also carried out a practice drill related to indoor
disaster damage prevention measures every April.
Table 6

Item

The map overlay and GIS analysis show that this hotel can be
classied as in the range of a 450 mm ood potential (Fig. 5).
 C.-H. Tsai, C.-W. Chen / Tourism Management 32 (2011) 158e171 165

Table 7
Weaknesses of disaster risk management.

Disaster risk type Earthquake disaster risk
Weaknesses of preparedness against natural 1. The at surfaces and geometric shapes of the
disasters main bodies used in the construction are weak.
2. There is no special organization for
earthquake disaster response or related
protection plan.1
3. No earthquake insurance policies have been
taken out.1.
Typhoon and ood disaster risk
1. Facilities such as restaurants and banquet
rooms are on the 1st oor.
2. Underground space is used for parking or
entertainment facilities.
3. There is no special organization for typhoon/
ood disaster response or related protection
plan.
4. No typhoon/ood insurance policies have
been taken out.

Assessment indices are shown in Appendix 1 (Earthquake Risk
Assessment) and Appendix 2 (Typhoon and Flood Risk Assess-
ment). The results of disaster risk index assessment for this
particular hotel are shown in Table 6.
Risk indexes are calculated using formula (1). After the eval-
uation and calculation of the indexes for the current tourist
targets, the values obtained can be compared with the criterion
values, so that the degree of earthquake (typhoon and ood)
hazard can be estimated and the weaknesses of risk management
can be found.
RTF Ga Bb Sg Dd E3 Rz; (1)
where G represents geological conditions; B the existing building
conditions; S the existing social and economic conditions; D the
conditions for re, typhoon and ood prevention; E the conditions
for refuge and disaster-relief; R represents risk management
strategies; aez are the weight parameters; and aez are the weight
parameters from Table 6. In Table 6, the numbers before the
parameters indicate the degree of hazard parameters obtained by
evaluating the current tourist targets according to Appendices 3
and 4.
Complete assessment results are shown in Table 6, including the
weight settings related to degree of earthquake, typhoon and ood
hazard (Table 2). We compute the results for earthquake as well as
typhoon and ood disaster risk indices as follows:
(1) Earthquake Risk: 5a 19b 2g 10d 123 12z 925;
(2) Typhoon and Flood Risk: 3a 23b 2g 19d 123 12z 1195.
From a comparison of the above results with corresponding
values in the risk hazard index threshold shown in Tables 3 and 4,
we can rapidly estimate the degree of hazard from natural disaster
for the said hotel. The results show that it can be classied as having
a light degree of earthquake disaster risk and a moderate degree of
typhoon and ood disaster risk.
Step 5: Find the weaknesses of disaster risk management in
order to develop better strategies for disaster reduction, as
shown in Table 7.
on the lower oor (rst oor), while important mechanical and
electrical equipment are installed in the basement. Some space in
the basement has also been used for parking and recreation
facilities. The hotel has not yet organized any special response
group or relevant prevention plan for typhoon and ood disaster
prevention. It also lacks additional typhoon and ood insurance.
These are all reasons for a higher risk of damage from typhoon
and ood disasters. The preceding determination of the disaster
risk index as well as information related to the weakness of
disaster risk management will be provided to the said hotel as
a reference for drawing up management strategies for dealing
with the natural disaster risks. Moreover, the conclusions drawn
could be used to improve engineering, insurance, geography, and
so on. The risk assessment index is based on the elds of civil
engineering, architectural design, disaster management, insur-
ance and geographic information. This study provides a general-
ized model for rapid assessment for the tourism industry. On-site
observation could help attain an initial understanding of some of
the weaknesses of basic disaster preparedness (for example,
locating critical electrical equipment in a basement). However,
the range of inuence of disasters may be very large and cannot
be simply described. The systematic method used in this study
provides a more complete understanding of the hazards caused
by earthquake, typhoon and ood. The space factor can be
considered adequately (with the GIS system). It is expected that
the same method can be applied to large-scale rapid risk
assessment tasks.
The models established in this study (disaster risk assessment
model for sightseeing regions and natural disaster risk assessment
and management model for the tourism industry) allow for self-
assessment related to prevention of damage from internal/external
disasters (Disaster Risk Index). They should be helpful for drawing
up strategies for natural disaster damage control. As described in
the preceding paragraph the former can be applied to assess the
sources of disaster risk, and the latter can be utilized to analyze the
self-retaining1 timing of risks and the suggestion for the follow-up
project of risk transformation.2 A fuller understanding of the
sources of risk and its inuence will help the tourism industry to

4. Discussion and conclusion 1

The primary earthquake disaster risk for the said hotel is
derived from the fact that the major building was constructed
with an inferior geometrical shape. In addition, it has not yet
organized any exclusive response group or prevention plan for
earthquakes, and lacks additional earthquake insurance. As for
the typhoon and ood risks, the primary problem is that this is
an urban hotel. Thus, since it has been difcult to obtain addi-
tional land, it has been forced to use all available space. As
a result, most of its restaurants and banquet facilities are situated
Self-retaining: This term refers to risk that is borne by the sufferer himself, who
does not wish or cannot transfer that risk to other people. Just as the name implies,
with the risk retention principle, the focus is how to best bear or absorb the risk by
oneself, to effectively reduce the impact of the disaster, both before or after its
occurrence (Yeh, 1999). In general practice, for example, tour operators often
reserve some capital (reserve funds) to facilitate the management of emergency
response, repairs, and other such actions.
2
Risk transformation: In the risk transfer strategy various methods are utilized to
shift or transfer the risk to others. For example, efforts may be made to try to reduce
risk loss by the purchasing of an insurance policy; by the mechanism of industrial
coinsurance, in which the interested parties enter into a strategic alliance to share
the risk; or to integrate the local tourism industry to obtain capital with the sale of
catastrophe bonds; and so on (Hsu et al., 2006).
166 C.-H. Tsai, C.-W. Chen / Tourism Management 32 (2011) 158e171

plan and draw up follow-up strategies for natural disaster response.
We suggest that there are three aspects to consider when drawing
up such strategies, the environment as a whole, mental and
behavioral preparation, and equipment. These should be consid-
ered in relation to a variety of other factors such as feasible
behavior, existing practices and equipment, as well as the degree of
hazard and type of natural disaster, degree of interruption of
operations, etc. Appropriate strategies can be drawn up following
the four steps of disaster management.
The implementation of loss prevention mechanisms by the
tourism industry should not be by accident; rather, loss prevention
management should be incorporated into daily management
mechanisms part of good management habits. This would decrease
natural disaster hazard risk and help the tourism industry achieve
sustainable operations as well as incorporate well thought-out
concepts of disaster response within the industrys internal
management criteria.
In particular, Taiwans frequent earthquakes have resulted in
much damage including both nancial loss and human casualties.
However, it is certain that tourist destinations can cope with such
challenges if they have guidelines for appropriate actions in place.
In order to assess the inuence of natural disasters on the tourism
industry, we propose rapid assessment model in terms of GIS-based
concepts. Based on the proposed model we carry out a case analysis
of any area in Taiwan with frequent earthquakes. This case can be
employed to demonstrate and aid in the understanding of the
applicability of the earthquake assessment model and management
mechanism in the tourism industry. From the example, we have
already developed some earthquake disaster risk management
strategies for the hotelier industry in the Hualien region. It is hoped
that the risk-based evaluation mechanisms revealed in this study
will provide the relevant government departments, asset owners,
insurance companies and the banking industry with necessary
information related to disaster and risk management, and its effect
on the tourism industry. It is also hoped that more academic
researchers will put effort into tourism-related research and help to
construct a more comprehensive catastrophe risk assessment
model, designed to decrease catastrophe-related risks to the
tourism industry. In addition to the model for earthquake risk
assessment, how to utilize the related analysis results to obtain
more information related to earthquake risk management can be
pursued in future.
Acknowledgement
This work was supported by the National Science Council of the
ROC. under Grant Nos. NSC 98-2410-H-278-001, NSC 98-2815-C-
278-001-H, NSC 97-2410-H-278-002, and 98-2221-E-366-006-MY2.

Appendix 1

Earthquake risk assessment index for the tourism industry.

Title Classication of Characteristics Item Impact factors
environmental region
Earthquake Risk Assessment Urban tourism industry Physical characteristics Geological conditions Adjacent to an active fault
Index for the Tourism of disasters Geological conditions
Industry Sensitivity characteristics Existing building Structural classication
of loss conditions Year of construction
Number of oors
Existing conditions of adjacent buildings
Geometric design
Capacity (number of rooms, number of
guests, etc.)
Existing social and Urban population
economic conditions Land use zoning
Conditions for avoiding Pipeline distribution
re risk Coverage ratio of block
Distance to re station
Distance to a water source for re ghting
Density of storage of hazardous products
Mixing rate of brick/wooden buildings
Characteristics of disaster Conditions for evacuation Whether there is an organized emergency
prevention/relief and disaster-relief response organization or not
Installation of evacuation indication system
Disaster prevention practice and mechanism
for regional cooperation
Access to evacuation routes
Walking distance to large-scale refuge/
evacuation site
Major trafc capacity
Area of refuge and evacuation site
Risk management Management strategies for a buildings
strategies damage risk
Storage conditions for disaster prevention/relief
resources
Fire risk management strategies (earthquake
and re insurance)
Management strategies for refuge and
disaster-relief (emergency rescue manpower)
Remote or suburban Remote area tourism has the same Sensitivity Characteristics of Loss as the urban type, but social and
tourism industry economic conditions need not be considered in the Physical Characteristics of Disasters. The focus needs to
be upon self-rescue (including the training of manpower and storage of disaster-relief materials) in
Characteristics of Disaster Prevention/Relief and Risk Management.
Appendix 2

Typhoon and ood risks assessment index for the tourism industry.
Title Classication of Characteristics Item Detailed items
environmental region

C.-H. Tsai, C.-W. Chen / Tourism Management 32 (2011) 158e171

Typhoon and Flood Risks Remote tourism Physical characteristics Geological conditions Adjacent to a side slope
Assessment Index for the industry of disasters Geological conditions
Tourism Industry Sensitivity characteristics Existing building conditions Condition of subsidiary facilities
of loss Number of oors
Current use of rst oor and basement
Installation of emergency water and electrical generating equipment
Geographic conditions of neighboring region
Space capacity (Number of rooms and guests)
Existing social and economic conditions Population density
Conditions for prevention of typhoon and Current drainage conditions
ood damage Whether there are rescue materials or not
Reinforcement of recreation facilities for typhoons
Distance to adjacent rescue units and existing communication
Flooding condition of the basement
Installation of important equipment
Reinforcement of subsidiary facilities (such as glass, signboards, etc.)
Characteristics of disaster Conditions of refuge and disaster-Relief Establishment of emergency response organization
prevention/relief Installation of evacuation indication system
Disaster prevention practices and the mechanism for regional
cooperation
Area of refuge roads
Walking distance to large-scale refuge/evacuations site
Major trafc capacity
Area of refuge and evacuation site
Risk management strategies Response strategy for ooded buildings
Storage condition for disaster prevention/relief materials
Typhoon and ood risk management strategies (typhoon and
ood insurance)
Management strategies for refuge and disaster-relief
Urban tourism industry Conditions for urban tourism industry are similar to those for remote tourism.

167
Appendix 3

Determination of the degree of hazard for earthquake risk for the tourism industry.
Item Physical Sensitivity characteristics of loss
characteristics
of disasters

Geological conditions (W a) Existing building conditions (W b) Existing Conditions of re risk avoidance (W d)

social and
economic
conditions
(W g)
Hazard Degree Condition of Geological Structure (age) Construction Number of Existing Geometric Space capacity Population Pipeline Coverage Distance to Distance to
adjacent fault Condition year oors conditions of shape density distribution ratio of re ghting water
adjacent block department source for
buildings re ghting
D (4 points) Within 0e2 km Very soft Brick Before 1974 Higher than 12 Contact with L type (with Over 200 Extreme High Less than Over 10 km (Outdoor)
(under 30 m) construction oors adjacent arcade) persons (300 3m Over 500 m
building persons/ha)
C (3 points) 2e5 km Soft (alluvium) Light steel 1974e1982 6e12 oors With standard shape, 100e200 Concentrated Moderate 3e5 m 5e10 km
frame brick re lane shape (200/ha)
wall
(Outdoor)
100e500 m
B (2 points) 5e10 km Common RC (Reinforced 1982e1999 4e6 oors Wider than H shape 50e100 Common Low 5e10 m 1e5 km (Outdoor)
(alluvium) Concrete) standard re (100/ha) within
lane 100 m
A (One point) Over 10e15 km Good (older SRC (Steel After 1999 Lower than 3 Independent Oblong Under 50 Sparse (50/ None Over 10 m Less than (Indoor)
than Tertiary reinforced oors site persons ha) 1 km
strata) concrete)

Item Sensitivity Characteristics of Loss Characteristics of Disaster Prevention/Relief

Condition for avoidance of re Condition for refuge and disaster-relief (W 3) Risk management strategies (W z)
risk (W d)
Degree of Density of Mixing of brick/ Whether it has Installation of Disaster Area of refuge Distance to the Major trafc Area of Response to Storage Earthquake Emergency
Hazard hazardous wooden an emergency evacuation prevention roads large-scale capacity refuge and building conditions and re rescue
product storage building response indicating practice and refuge evacuation damage for disaster insurance manpower
organization or system mechanism for evacuation site site prevention/
not regional relief
cooperation materials
D (4 points) Over 50 m2 Over 50% N/A N/A None Less than 3 m Over 1 km Average 200/h, N/A N/A N/A N/A None
per day
2
C (5 points) 20e50 m 20e50% Only has re Each oor
response group

decentralization systemWithin 5 years3e6 m500 me1 kmAverage 50e200/h, per dayLess than 100 pingsImpossible for self-repairingPartially availableTotal policy value is lower than 30% of total assets valueLess than 2 personsB (2
points)20 m2Lower than 20%More than one in addition to re disasterWith indoor and partial outdoor evacuation systemOnce a year6e12 m200e500 mAverage 30e50/h, per day100e500 pingsAvailable for self-repairingAvailable,
but without self-inspectionTotal policy value is 30e80% of total assets value2e5A (one points)NoneNoneHas all kinds of disaster response groupsComprehensive indoor/outdoor evacuation systemOnce every 6 monthsOver
12 mLess than 200 mAverage less than 30/h, per dayOver 800 pingsWith specied management mechanism (opening contract)Monthly self-inspectionTotal policy value is higher than 80% of total assets valueOver 5
Appendix 4

Determination of degree of hazard for typhoon and ood risk for the tourism industry.
Item Physical Sensitivity characteristics of loss
characteristics
of disasters

Geological conditions (W a) Existing building conditions (W b) Existing social Conditions of Fire Risk Avoidance (W d)
and economic
conditions
(W g)
Degree of Existing Geological Condition of Number of Current Installation of Geometric Space capacity Population Current Whether it Reinforced Distance to
Hazard adjacent side condition subsidiary oors condition of emergency condition density condition of has rescue condition of adjacent rescue
slope facilities rst oor and equipment for drainage materials or typhoon units
basement water and not prevention
electricity for recreation
supply facilities
D (4 points) Less than 10m Very soft Class IV (Over Lower than 2 High use None Serious low- More than 200 Extreme(300 N/A None N/A Over 10 km
(under 5%) oors density lying region persons persons/ha)
30m)
C (5 points) 10e500 m Soft Class III (2%e Higher than 2 Moderate use Only water Moderate low- 100e200 Concentrated Insufcient Partial Simple reinforcement
(alluvium) 5%) oors density supply lying region (200/ha) discharge available
capacity
5 e10km
B (2 points) 500e1000 m Common Class II (1%e Low use density Installation of Gentle terrain 50e100 Common(100/ Discharge Available, but Good reinforcement
(alluvium) 2%) equipment for ha) capacity is without self- with anchorage
water supply sufcient inspection
and power
supply
1e5km
A (one points) 1000 m Good (older Class I (Lower Slight Available High terrain Under 50 Sparse(50/ha) Sufcient Monthly self- No need for reinforcement
than Tertiary than 1%) decoration of (including persons discharge inspection
strata) rst oor (none water pumps) capacity
in basement) (periodic
dredging)

Less than 1 km
Item Sensitivity characteristics of Characteristics of disaster prevention/relief
loss
Conditions of typhoon and Condition for refuge and disaster-relief (W 3) Risk management strategies (W z)
ood prevention (W d)
Degree of Flooding Installation of Subsidiary Installation of Disaster Area of refuge Walking Major trafc Area of refuge Response Storage Typhoon and Management
Hazard condition of important facility evacuation prevention roads distance to capacity and evacuation strategy for condition of ood strategies for
basement equipments facilitation indicating practices and large-scale site ooding disaster insurance refuge and
condition system regional refuge/ buildings prevention/ disaster-relief
cooperation evacuations relief
mechanism site materials
D (4 points) High Basement Without reinforcement N/A None Less than 3 m Over 1 km Average 200/h, N/A N/A None N/A
per day
N/A
C (3 points) Moderate First oor Simple reinforcement Each oor has Within 5 years 3e6 m 500 me1 km Average Smaller than Impossible Partial Total policy
evacuation 50e200/h, per 100 pings for self- available value is lower
system day repairing than 30% of
total assets
value
(continued on next page)
(continued )

Item Physical Sensitivity characteristics of loss

characteristics
of disasters

Geological conditions (W a) Existing building conditions (W b) Existing social Conditions of Fire Risk Avoidance (W d)
and economic
conditions
(W g)
Establishment
of
emergency
response
groups
B (2 points) Low 1e2 oor Good reinforcement Including Once a year 6e12 m 200e500 m Average 100e500 Available for Available, but Total policy
with anchorage indoor and 30e50/h, per pings self-repairing without self- value is
partial outdoor day inspection 30e80% of total
evacuations assets value
system
Establishment
of exclusive
typhoon and
ood
response
groups
A (One point) No basement Above 2 oor Without Comprehensive Once every 6 Over 12 m Over 200 m Average less Larger than 800 With Monthly self- Total policy (Periodically
(raised) subsidiary indoor and months than 30/h, per pings specied inspection value is practice)
facility outdoor refuge day management higher than
and evacuation mechanism 80% of total
system (opening assets value
contract)
 C.-H. Tsai, C.-W. Chen / Tourism Management 32 (2011) 158e171
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Chung-Hung Tsai was born in Taitung, Taiwan in 1972. He
received his M.S. and Ph.D. degrees from the Department
of civil Engineering, National Central University, Chung-li,
Taiwan, in 2000 and 2007, respectively. He has published
more than 50 articles and reports in journals and confer-
ences related to tourism information systems, risk
management, and GIS. He ever got the best paper award in
Asia-Pacic Council on Hotel, Restaurant, and Institutional
Education (APacCHRIE)Conference. He is also invited to be
session chair in IEEE conf. many times. Currently, he is an
Assistant Professor of Taiwan Hospitality & Tourism
College, Hualien, Taiwan. His research interests are in the
area of tourism management, risk analysis, and GIS.
Cheng-Wu Chen was born in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, R.O.C., in
1977. He received his Ph.D. degree in Civil Engineering
from National Central University, Chung-li, Taiwan, in
2004. Following graduation, he joined the faculty of the
Department of Logistics Management at Shu-Te University,
in the Kaohsiung. Currently, he is an Associate Professor in
Institute of Navigation science and Technology, National
Kaohsiung Marine University, Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. He
published over 50 SCI journal papers and his research
interests are in the area of articial intelligence, applica-
tions of information technology, and logistics
management.