WATER RESOURCES ENGINEERING

SUPPLY AND DEMAND GAP

ANALYSIS
Module 2

DANILO B. PULMA
Dean, College of Engineering
Eastern Visayas State University
Tacloban City
 SUPPLY AND DEMAND GAP ANALYSIS

Existing Situation
Present Facilities and State of Facilities
(include observed defects, operational requirements,
needed improvements for present situation, cash flow
problems)
- Maps (areas currently served, areas under proposed
project, probable ultimate service area)
- Water Users (domestic, commercial, industrial,
institutional and public faucet)
- Population (served)
- Statistical Information (% of population served)
- How Served (% metered, % unmetered, % Public
Faucets)
- Historical Data (metered water consumption, NRW,
Water production)
 SUPPLY AND DEMAND GAP ANALYSIS

Existing Situation
- Per Capita Consumption (historical data, evidence of
unsatisfied demands, consumption restricted by
inadequate water distribution capacity)
- Will connection increase if distribution capacity is
expanded?
- Historical dates of existing WSS (planning,
construction, abandonment, expansion source,
intake, transmission, treatment, booster pumping
stations, distribution main/network, storage)
- Capacities and present conditions
- Existing surface water source data (catchment area,
rainfall, Water quality, river flow data, water rights,
watershed condition)
- Existing Groundwater (well & spring locations,
capacities, GW aquifer capacity, water quality
 SUPPLY AND DEMAND GAP ANALYSIS

Demand Projections

Population Projections
Water Consumption
Demand Variation (ADD, MDD, PHD)
 Population Projections
(Geometrical Method Formula)

Pn = Po (1 + i)n
Where:
Pn = Design Population
Po = Present Population
i = Growth Rate
n = Design Period
 Design Period

Facilities designed to meet projected

demand usually 5 - 10 years hence.

5 yr period
Lower initial cost but need for capex after 5
years

10 yr period
Higher initial cost but no major capex needed
within the 10 yr design period
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Growth Rate/Annual Rate Increase

The analysis of ARI should be on city/municipal

to barangay level:
Determine growth patterns/trends

Take note of extraordinary increase or decrease and

reason for such. (zoning plan or a master development plan,
physical limits and or geographical barriers, possibility of
industrial development, proposed new arterial roads or
transportation facilities, proposed regional facilities
universities, military base)
Examine official historical population data
(1990,1995,2000,2005,2015)
Design Population Exercise

Brgy Population Growth Rate (GR) % Projected Population

2000 2007 2000 - 2007 2012

Brgy A 1,000 1,300 ? ?

Brgy B 2,000 2,300 ? ?

Brgy C 1,800 1,900 ? ?

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Design Population Exercise

Brgy Population Growth Rate (GR) % Projected Population

2000 2007 2000 - 2007 2012

Brgy A 1,000 1,300 3.82 1568

Brgy B 2,000 2,300 2.02 2542

Brgy C 1,800 1,900 0.78 1975

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 Water Consumption Rate (Wc):

Domestic Connection
Individual connection = 100 to 120 lpcd
Public Faucets = 30 to 60 lpcd
NRW = 20% to 25%

Institutional Connection = 3 to 6 cumd

Commercial Connection = 1 to 2 cumd

Industrial Connection = 1 to 3 cumd

NOTE:
Level II system planner should assume that within 5
years, 90% of HHs served will be clamoring for
Individual house connections
 Demand Variations

ADD = used in the design of basic water

facilities. Reservoir capacity is usually 25% of
ADD.

MDD = used in determining the transmission

main and pump capacity for a water source to be
acceptable.

PHD = used in determining the size of

distribution mains.
 Peak Hour Demand)

Maximum Day Demand)

Average Day Demand)

 Estimate of Water Demand
Wrqt =Water Requirement
Wrqt= Pn x Wc

ADD = Wrqt / (1-NRW)

MDD = 1.3 x ADD
PHD = 2.0 x ADD (Population > 1000)
PHD = 2.5 x ADD (Population > 600, <1000)
PHD = 3.0 x ADD (Population < 600)

New Sys. Rehab Expansion

NRW =
15% 20% 25%
Non-revenue Water

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 Water Demand Factors

ADD = (Design Population x Water Consumption

Rate)/(1-NRW)

Figures multiplied to the ADD to determine other demand

variations for purposes of analyzing and designing the
water supply system.

MDD = 1.2 to 1.5 (For Transmission Main and

Well yield)
PHD = 2.0 to 3.0 (For design of distribution
pipes)
 PRESENT SITUATION WATER DEMAND TABLE:

Total Population = 3,000

Population within
the service area = 2,700
Estimated served
population = 2,200
Number of persons
per household = 5

Level 2 Water Supply

Water Demand = 60 lpcd
NRW = 20%

Water Reqt = Population x

Water Demand
ADD = Water Reqt/(1-NRW)
MDD = 1.3xADD
PHD = 2.0xADD
 PRESENT SITUATION WATER DEMAND TABLE:

Total Population = 3,000

Population within
the service area = 2,700
Estimated served
population = 2,200
Number of persons
per household = 5

Level 2 Water Supply

Water Demand = 60 lpcd
NRW = 20%

Water Reqt = Population x

Water Demand
ADD = Water Reqt/(1-NRW) Year 1 215 CMD 2.48 lps
MDD = 1.3xADD Year 5 234 CMD 2.71 lps
PHD = 2.0xADD Year 10 265 CMD 3.07 lps
END OF PRESENTATION